泰国金融危机的产生、传播及影响

1997年7月2日上午，泰国政府突然宣布，泰国决定实行新的汇率制度，包括：取消原有的主要与美元挂钩的钉住汇率制度；实行轰株汇率市场浮动制，泰国中央银行根据情况负责干预外汇市场，以保持汇率基本稳定，由中央银行定期公布参考汇率等。秦铁浮动汇率制宣布的当天，秦铁就贬值近20％，泰国金融危机终于表面化。一、泰国金融危机的产生和传播泰国金融危机迅速波及东南亚其他国家，形成了整个东南亚地区的金融危机（见下表）。泰国金融危机爆发的原因是多方面的，主要有外部原因和内部原回。内部原因主要有：1．经常项目赤字恶化。近几年，…     

人民币汇率改革是否会成功

7月21日。政府实行新的汇率政策,一方面人民币兑美元的汇率从8.27元升到8.11元,升值2%,幅度很小;一方面“恢复”有管理的浮动制度并“参考”而不是“钉住”一篮子货币。这次汇率政策改革是否能够达到政府所期望的目的,即人民币汇率不再     

如何为人民币升值减压

升值压力从何而来 我国目前的汇率制度形成于1994年,对其完整的表述应该是“单一的、以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率制”。自那时至今,人民币对美元汇率大约升值了5％,其中较大的浮动主要是在1994年1月～1995年5月间由贬值完成的。此后人民币汇率变化幅度开始缩小,特别是在1998年亚洲金融危机发生以后,为防止金融风险的发生,我国汇率波动幅度进一步变得窄小,波动幅度不足万分之五。“有管理的浮动汇率制度”在某种程度上已演变为固定汇率制。这就给一些处于经济衰退周期中的国家以口实。     

“蒙代尔三角”对人民币汇率制度选择的启示

"蒙代尔三角"表明了货币政策的独立、汇率的稳定和资本的自由流动的目标,三者只能取其二。从"蒙代尔三角"的视角,通过对我国外汇相关制度和经济政策的分析,得出我国应在未来选择货币政策的独立与资本自由流动的目标组合;我国可由汇率目标区制度逐步过渡到完全汇率浮动制度。     

后金融危机时期东南亚南亚经济发展趋势及云南的应对策略

金融危机爆发后,世界经济经历了两年左右的大调整。新一轮的增长周期何时到来,可能是两年、三年亦或八年、十年甚至更久。在这一被称为后金融危机时期的阶段,世界经济格局将会发生很大变化,人们对发展中国家和新兴市场的潜力和未来的力量高度关注,也引起对这些区域的新一轮争夺。在此背景下,我国及时调整对外发展战略,积极参与全球经济治理和区域合作,积极参与新兴市场国家和发展中国家的务实合作,提高我国在国际重要领域的话语权和对世界经济格局的影响力。云南在国家新一轮对外开放战略中具有重要意义,面向的恰恰就是最重要的发展中国家、新兴市场新兴经济体,其建设关乎后金融危机时期我国对外开放战略格局的形成,将会极大影响我国在世界经济政治格局中的地位。     

小国汇率制度选择的困境--以东南亚国家为例

1997年7月爆发的亚洲金融危机是继30年代大萧条以来最大的金融动荡.产生这场危机的主要根源之一就是各国所实行的实际钉住美元的汇率制度.危机过后的今天,各国都已经对本国的汇率制度进行了一些灵活的改革,但在实际运行中又重新恢复了钉住美元的制度安排,而这种"回归"正体现了东南亚各危机国汇率制度选择的内在困境.从一般意义上分析不同汇率制度下发生金融危机的可能性,并联系各危机国的汇率制度演变过程及各国具体情况,着重分析其恢复钉住汇率制度安排的外部及内在原因后,不难得结论只有进行汇率、货币合作才是东南亚国家走出困境的最佳出路.     

关于人民币汇率问题的几点看法

根据诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、欧元之父蒙代尔的理论．在开放经济条件下，一国的独立货币政策、国际资本流动、相对稳定的汇率三者不可兼得．即存在所谓“不可能三角”关系。我国的奉行有管理的浮动汇率政策．意在保持人民币汇率在合理均衡条件下的基本稳定．事实上，汇率管理有余，浮动有限．汇率较为稳定．使人民币升值的预期不断累积．对国际资本流入的吸引力不断增强．     

充分认识人民币向自由兑换货币发展的渐进过程

与其它国家一样,我国的汇率政策及其改革要逐步解决两方面的基本问题:一是汇率制度的选择,即依据什么准则确定和调整汇率;二是汇率水平的确定,即根据已确定的汇率制度来具体确定和调整汇率水平。1994年我国实行新的外汇管理体制,人民币汇率并轨,实行以市场供求为基础的单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制,建立了统一的外汇市场。至于汇率水平,通常认为人民银行将根据国内物价水平、国际收支尤其是进出口状况等因素与财政政策、贸易政策协调配合、灵活调整目标汇率。可以看出,我国新的外汇管理体制有了实质性变化,在一定程度上开放了外汇市场,并放开了汇率。然而与发达国家相比,我国的外汇管制仍较为严格,外汇市场的发育程度还远远不够,人民币向自由兑换货币过渡将会是一个渐进的发展过程。     

中国是否该施以援手

面对越南金融危机,中国是否应施以援手?中国金融40人论坛的专家官员多认为中国应做好相关预案和安排,若越南的情况确实需要,中国应通过人民币及中资机构等途径进行相关救助。若需要理应救助国家外汇管理局综合司副司长管涛认为中国是否救助首先看越南是否需要,也即越南是否出现了债务问题。     

深化汇率形成机制改革 加快经济发展方式转变

目前我国宏观经济所面临的诸多两难,均源于汇率稳定与币值稳定的冲突。由于汇率刚性或黏性所引发的政府干预有溢出效应,本币被动超发使得失衡出口转内销,并导致宏观调控的微观化。后危机时代加快我国经济发展方式转变,亟需进一步深化汇率形成机制改革。具体而言,一要提升汇率的市场化程度,加快市场取向改革向要素市场扩展;二要克服非理性的浮动恐惧症,促进顺差式外部失衡平稳调整;三要让汇率政策归位,优化政策组合服务经济发展方式转变。     

Embedded policy preferences and the formation of international arrangements after the Asian financial crisis

New bilateral and multilateral arrangements emerged after the Asian financial crisis in the areas of financial assistance, financial regulation, and exchange rate stabilization. Strikingly, however, very few such arrangements emerged at the regional level. This paper argues that (1) the success of bilateral and international arrangements was the result of policy preference compatibility among East Asian countries and (2) the countries’ policy preferences can be explained as a function of their financial system features (securities-market-based or bank-credit-based) and external balance positions (capital-dependent or capital-sufficient). Although this framework cannot predict whether countries will agree on a particular policy proposal, it can explain the diversity of their proposals, the likely lines of conflict, the nature of their compromises, and why certain proposals succeed (or fail) even without the strong support (or opposition) of major powers.     

The Asian financial crisis and financial reforms in China

Abstract

Although China has avoided the direct attack of the Asian financial crisis, it has suffered secondary consequences leading to an economic slowdown. More importantly, the plight of its neighboring countries has driven home the urgency of financial reforms as China shares many of the problems at the root of the crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Korea. This article reviews the reform measures adopted by the Chinese government since the crisis. It analyzes the political dynamics of financial reforms in terms of state preferences and state capacities. In retrospect, the Asian financial crisis may well be seen as a turning point in reforming China's financial system.     

Revitalizing the United States‐Japanese alliance

Abstract

While the notion that subjective economic perceptions as well as objective economic conditions affect electoral outcomes has long been explored in advanced democracies and new democracies, evidence of the link between the economy and elections has been rarely found in East Asian countries. As economic issues have become salient since the 1997 financial crisis, political leaders’ capacity to manage the economy has become one of the most important criteria in electoral choice in East Asia. This paper examines how economic issues influenced the results of the 2007 presidential election in South Korea. By making use of the 2007 Presidential Election Panel Study, this study examines the continuity of and changes in the Korean voters’ electoral behavior. This study describes the political situation in the post-1997 financial crisis period under two liberal governments in Korea and introduces the processes and characteristics of electoral campaigns in the 2007 presidential election. This paper then explores the link between the economy and vote choice, focusing on whether economic issues were salient among the electorate, whether retrospective or prospective economic voting was prevalent among Koreans, and how the voters supported Lee Myung Bak across age groups, regions, and parties in the 2007 presidential election.     

Crisis management and the diversity of capitalism: fiscal stimulus packages and the East Asian (neo-)developmental state

Abstract

This paper contributes to the understanding of East Asian capitalism by investigating the political economy of crisis management in Japan, Korea and China during the global economic crisis. Reacting to the global shock of the economic crisis that began in 2008, East Asian capitalism has remained a distinct state-led model that differs substantially from the liberal, neo-corporatist or welfare state varieties of capitalism in the West. More specifically, this paper studies the fiscal stimulus packages implemented by East Asian countries to address the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2010. We find that East Asian fiscal stimulus packages were comparatively large and supply-side-oriented. Unlike in the West, where a (short-lived) revival of demand-side-oriented Keynesian strategies stimulating consumption could be observed, East Asian countries reinforced industrial policies and supported investment and international competitiveness. We argue that the East Asian variety of crisis management can largely be explained by a path-dependent transformation of the East Asian developmental state into a neo-developmental competition state.     

公共政策的缺失与当前世界性经济危机

以次贷危机为导火索、进而席卷全球的金融海啸,正方兴未艾,引发了世界性的经济危机,各国政府努力救市.媒体和学术界开始从各个角度分析危机的原因所在.列举出来的原因有:市场和公众投资信心降低、克林顿政府的房贷政策、在政府政策压力下从格林斯潘开始的长期的低利率低通胀政策、华尔街的贪婪等等.虽然这些都可以算是原因,但在它们的后面其实有着人们不愿探究的更深层次的原因,包括:多年来美国政府改革路线的失衡、现代资本主义金融体系包括市场经济本身的内生性制度缺陷、深藏于现代西方政治文化与社会治理结构中的脆弱因素、资本主义特质在现代技术条件下对社会提出的新挑战、缺失的公共利益文化等等.重点对后面的几个原因进行阐述和讨论,提请学术界对全球化条件下处于不同发展阶段的国家在自己的公共政策和政府治理改革问题上做更深层次的思考和探索.     

International capital mobility and Third World development: Compatible marriage or troubled relationship?

The current surge of foreign capital to the Third World resembles that of the 1970s. The channels are now different but the extra-regional flows are again predominantly to Latin America followed by East Asia. Many of the Latin American countries whose overborrowing brought on the 1980s debt crisis are again overborrowing to compensate for low savings rates and other structural flaws, putting their balance of payments at increasing risk. The likelihood that this time they can handle the rising debt servicing and impending slowing of the inflows sans prolonged crisis or a major retreat from their market liberalization policies is not very high, whereas the East Asian countries appear once more structurally capable of riding out the repercussions from an international financial market pullback.     

我国外汇储备激增与当前流动性过剩问题研究

20世纪90年代中期以来,我国外汇储备连续多年呈现出激增态势。外汇储备的激增直接引发了我国流动性过剩问题。而流动性过剩既使我国当前面临投资过热和通货膨胀压力,也使我国房地产领域和股市出现过热迹象。外汇储备的激增与我国多年来实行不当的出口退税政策、人民币汇率政策及直接利用外资政策等一系列国际收支政策密切相关。为从根本上改善外汇储备激增现状及流动性过剩问题,我国应重新设定国际收支政策的目标,具体政策的调整应从适度调低出口退税率、逐步建立富有弹性的汇率决定机制及在数量、投向上限制外国直接投资三个方面入手。     

‘Opening up’ by default: North Korea,the humanitarian community and the crisis

In April 1999, ASEAN formally admitted Cambodia thereby completing its declared goal of grouping together all ten Southeast Asian countries under its umbrella. This was the culminating event in the latest phase of ASEAN's enlargement. This process, however, had been problematic from the start. The entry of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam without any clear criteria for admission has raised questions regarding the preparedness of these countries to participate in ASEAN. More importantly, it led to strains in ASEAN's relations with its dialogue partners over the legitimacy of some of the governments in power in these countries. The was further complicated by the economic upheaval caused by the financial crisis which struck Southeast Asia in 1997. The impact of these events on ASEAN has put into question the association's growing role as a leading player in Asia-Pacific affairs. More importantly, it has raised issues which are central to ASEAN's continued existence.     

France and the International Financial Crisis: The Legacy of State‐Led Finance

Despite the far‐reaching liberalization of the French banking system over the past quarter century, French banks suffered far less in the international financial crisis (2007–2009) than banks in the United Kingdom and Germany. However, the French system also suffered far more—at least in the first stages of the crisis—than the banking systems of Southern Europe. By several measures, French banks were world leaders in financial innovation, and the French banking system was highly exposed to international market movements. The limited impact of the crisis, however, owed to the specificities of French “market‐based banking.” Deliberate state action over the two decades prior to the crisis created a specific kind of banking system and encouraged forms of financial innovation, the unintentional consequence of which was the limited exposure to the securitization that caused the damage wrought during the financial crisis.     

China and the middle-income trap: toward a Post Washington,Post Beijing Consensus

Abstract

Over the last 30 years, China has experienced tremendous growth, with many commentators attributing the rapid development to the ‘China Model’ (CM) or the ‘Beijing Consensus’ (BC). However, in recent years growth has slowed and an ever-increasing number of bears are predicting a financial crisis, economic collapse, and a very hard landing, perhaps even a lost decade a la Japan. All of this has led to heated debate about whether the CM is now exhausted, whether China is caught in ‘the middle-income trap’ (MIT) and whether a new model is needed for the next phase of development where China attempts the difficult transition from middle-income country to high-income country status. This article addresses the following five sets of issues. First, is there a CM or BC? If so, what does it entail, and does it differ from the model followed by other successful countries in East Asia? Second, is there a MIT? Is China stuck in the MIT or perhaps multiple MITs? Third, what adjustments to the economic model are required for China to continue its long march toward becoming a high-income country? Fourth, are political, legal and social reforms also required? If so, will all reforms proceed simultaneously or are reforms likely to be sequenced, with adjustments to the economy preceding reforms in other areas? Fifth, is there now a global convergence on a new model of development for developing countries – a Post-Washington, Post-Beijing Consensus?