中国FTA战略对双边贸易依存度的影响研究

随着经济全球化不断地深入发展,区域经济一体化也正在加速发展,双边FTA不断在国家之间签署,以自由贸易区为主要形式的区域贸易安排不断出现。该文选取2002年-2017年中国和FTA协议国双边的贸易数据,运用PSM-DID模型分析中国签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响如何。研究结果发现:第一,签订FTA对中国和协议国双方的贸易依存度具有提升作用;第二,中国与不同发展程度、不同区域类型的国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响不同,与发达国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的提升作用比发展中国家作用明显,与周边国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响也更大。     

Multilateral versus Bilateral and Regional Trade Liberalization: explaining China's pursuit of free trade agreements (FTAs)

In recent years, at the same time it has pursued multilateral trade negotiations via membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has embraced a regional approach to trade liberalization by negotiating a number of bilateral or regional free trade agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners. This paper examines China's increasingly active FTA diplomacy and seeks to explain China's motives for pursuing expanded FTAs. Specifically, this paper argues that while China's FTA activism reflects considerations about enhancing China's influence in the Asia–Pacific region, capturing the economic gains of FTA participation, and minimizing the trade and investment diversion resulting from the competitive dynamics of regional trade liberalization, the move toward expanded FTAs is also consistent with the desire to create alternative bargaining forums over trade issues that could help to stabilize expectations as well as the need to use FTAs to control the pace of trade liberalization so as to accommodate protectionist pressure emanating from domestic interest groups. In particular, this paper highlights the impact of domestic politics on China's FTA negotiations through a detailed discussion of how pressure from protectionist seeking interests influences the scope and depth of China's FTAs.     

中国与东盟的贸易和投资关系研究

中国与东盟的经济贸易关系特别是贸易和投资关系,自1967年以来经历了不同的发展阶段,其间出现过波动.但近年来随着金融危机的过去和双边政治关系的改善,经济贸易得到迅速发展.目前,中国与东盟的经贸合作的主要领域是商品贸易、服务贸易、相互投资、区域开发和科技合作等方面,在此基础上,应通过各种渠道协调相互关系,相互给予优惠贸易安排,加强区域合作,加强科技、教育、文化、卫生保健等领域的合作,以促进双边的贸易和投资等进一步发展.     

Integration Key to Asia's Sustained Economic Recovery

THE Asian economy is projected to sustain recovery,and its annual growth rate may exceed 6.5 percent this year,as integration in regional trade strengthens,according to a key report is-sued on April 18. The COVID-19 pandemic will be the main factor directly affecting the eco-nomic activities in Asia,but the value chain is converging to China,thanks to the advanced regional integration of trade in goods and services,according to the flagship report of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2021.The forum opened on April 18 in Boao,a coastal town in south Chinas Hainan Province.     

Domestic Institutional Constraints on China's Leadership in East Asian Economic Cooperation Mechanisms

The study of Chinese foreign policy has long shown that domestic politics and domestic constraints are sources of foreign policy, albeit generally considered less potent than ideology and interests. Domestic political constraints should also be explored as factors in Chinese regional policies toward East Asia, including regional economic institutions. This paper examines three domestic institutional constraints on regional foreign policy in the area of trade and economics: a fragmented decision-making structure that has difficulty with coordination, a relatively heavy reliance on top level decision-makers at a time when issues of Asian economic policy have relatively low priority for these same decision-makers, and the relatively extreme lack of autonomy for negotiators vis-á-vis top decision-makers in Beijing. These constraints are by any means unique to China. However, at a time when many observers and participants are expecting—indeed, often hoping for—Chinese leadership in the region, the paper posits that these constraints hinder the PRC's ability to fill this role. The key empirical focus is regional trade agreements and regional economic organizations.     

浅议贵州与邻省区贸易格局的类型及特征

贵州省与周边相邻省区以贸易为主轴的经济联系在当代出现了诸多新特点 ,如地域性、民族性、弱势地位等 ,并呈现出诸多类型的基本格局。本文提出 ,贵州与周边相邻地区必须培育区域性经济中心 ,以优势资源为依托 ,大力调整产业结构 ,走可持续发展之路     

中国——东盟自由贸易区产业协作的主要模式

在构建中国--东盟自由贸易区的过程中,核心是建立区域性产业协作系统,并逐步形成国际服务业主导型的产业协作模式,高新科技、教育文化导向型的产业协作模式,分工导向型的产业协作模式,信息导向型的产业协作模式,资本主导型产业协作模式.     

论国际投资法的自由化趋势

受经济全球化和贸易自由化的影响,当前阶段国际投资法呈现出前所未有的自由化趋势。这表现在东道国外资法、双边投资条约、区域性投资条约以及国际多边投资条约上,但它们在自由化趋势上又各有不同特点。     

民族区域自治制度与西部民族地区的商场经济体制建设

本文分析了西部民族地区现行经济体制在资源开采、国有企业、农产品流通、财税、金融、贸易等方面存在的问题，指出在建立和完善社会主义市场经济体制的过程中，保证民族地区真正能以不平等的手段消除民族间事实上的不平等，必须进一步坚持和完善民族区域自治制度。     

China and Asian regionalism: Challenge and policy choice

Regionalism has become an interesting phenomenon in Asian international relations. Driven by fast growing trade and investment, Asian countries have developed variegated patterns of economic co‐operation and a complex level of interdependence among themselves. Although the growing Asian regionalism is very much an economics‐driven process, it has profound impacts on regional political organization. This analysis examines Beijing's changing attitudes toward Asian regionalism and its policy choice in the regional economic integration. It is argued that the integration of the Chinese economy into the regional structure is promoted by the government as well as driven by market dynamics. Although Beijing has let the Chinese economy develop into the regional ‘flying geese’ structure, the best policy choice for China, as many Chinese scholars have argued, would be a three‐circle strategy of integrating into the world economy and a strategy of ‘market for technology’ in regional economic co‐operation. This analysis also discusses the regional political obstacles impeding co‐operation across national borders. It is argued that healthy bilateral relations and more political will toward regional multilateralism on political issues would be instrumental for future regional prosperity and stablity in Asia.     

国际碳排放权交易机制对长三角区域建立碳排放权交易市场的启示

温室气体排放权交易市场迅速发展扩张,并已成为全球贸易中的新亮点。欧盟碳排放权交易体系的成功经验与美国芝加哥气候交易所的失败教训表明,强制减排是碳排放权交易市场持续发展的前提条件。该文提出,长三角区域具有建立我国区域性碳排放权交易市场的条件,可为进一步完善碳排放权交易市场积累经验,并在此基础上构成全国统一的碳交易市场。     

环北部湾经济圈发展战略思考

在中国沿海地区,除了已经被人们公认的长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和环渤海三大经济圈之外,随着沿海地区经济的高速成长,尤其是中国—东盟自由贸易区的建设,正在形成第四大跨国、跨省区的经济圈即“环北部湾经济圈”。构建环北部湾经济圈对我国的地缘政治安全和区域经济均衡协调发展具有重要作用。     

China's Rise in Southeast Asia: implications for the United States

During the past few decades, China's economic success has permitted it to pursue a greater role on the international stage. China is recognized both as a regional and aspiring global power. Nowhere is this more evident than within Southeast Asia, where China's more active diplomacy is reflected in growing trade relations, proposals for stronger security ties, and the signing of numerous cooperative agreements on issues as varied as environmental protection, drug trafficking, and public health. As a whole, the region has received China's activism with both enthusiasm and trepidation. China has expended significant effort to assuage the fears of its neighbors by adopting a foreign policy approach that is active, non-threatening, and generally aligned with the economic and security interests of the region. This positive diplomacy has clearly yielded some success, most notably in the trade realm, where China is rapidly emerging as an engine of regional economic growth and integration that may well challenge Japanese and American dominance in the next three to five years. In the security realm, China's diplomacy, while rhetorically appealing to regional actors, has yet to make significant inroads in a regional security structure dominated by the United States and its bilateral security relationships. Most significantly, however, if China is to emerge as a real leader within Southeast Asia, it will also need to assume more of the social and political burden that leadership entails. As China continues to advance itself as a regional leader, its policies on issues such as health, drugs, the environment and human rights will face additional scrutiny not only for their impact on the region but also for the more profound question they raise concerning the potential of China's moral leadership. For the United States, China's greater presence and activism suggest at the very least that it cannot remain complacent about the status quo that has governed political, economic and security relations for the past few decades. Shared leadership within Southeast Asia will likely include China in the near future, with all the potential benefits and challenges that such leadership will entail.     

试论解决西部地区投资短缺问题的途径

本文以历史与现实、理论与实践相结合的方法 ,提出解决西部地区资金短缺问题可以通过资本市场、发展产业投资基金和大力支持上市公司开展股票融资 ;可以根据西部地区资源、市场和经济结构特点 ,以自然资源、市场、存量资产换外资 ;可能发挥边境区位优势 ,以贸易为导向 ,引进资金和技术等一些思路和想法。     

藏彝走廊与遗产廊道构建

藏彝走廊既是古代民族迁徙的重要通道,又是民族之间文化交流和商业贸易的重要通道。随着历史的发展,在藏彝走廊特殊地理环境下,孕育出了独具特色的民族文化景观。遗产廊道是一种区域性的线性文化景观。本文运用遗产廊道的理念,对藏彝走廊的遗产廊道的构建策略及意义进行了初步研究,力图通过对遗产廊道的构建,实现藏彝走廊文化遗产保护、经济发展、生态保护的多赢。     

广西沿边地区应对中国——东盟自由贸易区正式启动的对策思考

中国—东盟自由贸易区的正式启动,给广西沿边地区带来了难得的发展机遇,同时也带来诸多挑战。广西沿边地区应充分利用自身优势,切实转变政府职能,在加强人力资源建设、基础设施建设和城镇建设的同时,采取多种方式积极参与和扩大同东盟国家的经贸合作,为加快广西经济发展做出应有的贡献。     

关于大连城市经济与东北区域经济协调发展的现实论证

在全国区域经济协调发展的战略格局中,东北综合经济区能够建设成为全国意义的主体功能区,并且在这一进程中要注重实现大连城市经济开发的引擎效应。为此,应当认定大连城市经济与东北区域经济协调发展的促进因素与综合优势,必须促进大连采取城市经济开发与东北区域经济协调发展的战略举措:开拓对外贸易新局面,带动东北腹地走向世界;努力经营旅游产业,构建东北亚国际旅游中心;拓展金融大市场,打造区域性的国际金融中心;促进非公有制经济不断进步,实现城市经济的跨越发展。只有这样,大连市才能在东北老工业基地振兴中发挥龙头作用,拉动东北地区重新确立在全国未来经济布局中的战略地位。     

从会馆、行帮到商会——论近代云南商人组织的发展与嬗变

近代云南商人组织,经历了以地缘为主的会馆、行帮以及商会的发展过程。商人之间由分散走向联合,由孤立状态,走向协调行动,使全省商人形成一个整体网络。这不仅超越了血缘与地缘纽带的羁绊,也冲破了行业的囿限。商人由此得以改变以往的行帮、商帮或其他集团与个人形象,扩大了其政治能量和社会影响。     

充分发挥中国—东盟博览会作用

中国—东盟博览会已成功连办六届,促进了中国与东盟的产业合作。但中国和东盟的产业合作目前仍处于起步阶段,要共同发展区域经济,加强产业合作,必须创建更好的推动机制和合作平台。中国—东盟博览会应加强相应的展品类别设置、展商邀请、专业观众组织等改革,搭建更好的产业合作论坛,建立日常贸易数据库等,达到产业合作与博览会互利共赢。     

The China challenge: Theoretical perspectives and policy implications

Over the past few years there has been a heated debate in the West over the potential challenge of an increasingly strong and assertive China to the Asia‐Pacific region and to the world in general. This article offers a systematic analysis of the debate on China's emerging role in the international system and its security implications from the theoretical perspectives of realism and liberalism. While both international relations theories have provided valuable insights, neither of them alone is able to unravel the puzzle of whether a prosperous and powerful China will be a major force of stability or a threat to international peace. Drawing on the theory of trade expectations, this article shows the conditions under which high interdependence between China and its trading partners will lead to pacific or belligerent Chinese behavior. If Chinese decision‐makers’ expectations for future trade are high, they will be less likely to use force to deal with unresolved disputes with neighboring countries. If, however, they have a negative view of their future trading environment, they will be likely to take measures, including military actions, to remove any obstacles that might forestall the pursuit of great‐power status. For the moment, China's expectations of future trade are by and large optimistic, but there is evidence of growing Chinese suspicion of a Western ‘conspiracy’ to contain China which may alter Beijing's future perceptions. To ensure that the rise of China will not cause regional and global instability, the outside world should seek to integrate China into the international community by pursuing policies that will have a positive influence on China's expected value of trade. In the meantime, some elements of the balance of power strategy need to be introduced in order to curtail China's expected value of war.