A Coalition Lost,Then Found: A Spatial Analysis of Ukraine's 2006 and 2007 Parliamentary Elections

Between 2006 and 2007, four political scientists asked how an ostensibly "tired" electorate might respond to two successive parliamentary elections among a nearly identical set of alternatives. Using the same spatial perspective and multidimensional metric scaling methods employed previously, they asked whether those same tools can be used to summarize the electorate's perceptions of its electoral choices in 2006 and 2007 and whether those perceptions respond to events in ways that "make sense." Is there evidence to suggest that parties and politicians in Ukraine must now respond to the strategic imperatives described by an abstract theory of spatial analysis developed to organize study of more established democracies?     

The Rise of Golden Dawn: The New Face of the Far Right in Greece

The article examines the rise of the one of the most extremist political parties in Europe, Golden Dawn. It sketches the historical trajectory of the Greek far right, examines the ideological, organisational and voter profile of Golden Dawn, and offers possible explanations for its breakthrough in the 2012 elections. The article shows how the economic crisis has brought a massive realignment of the Greek electorate away from mainstream parties, giving rise to anti-system and anti-immigrant sentiments. Golden Dawn's violent tactics have allowed the party to establish an anti-system and anti-immigrant profile and capitalise on these sentiments. The party's future will depend on its capacity to absorb organisationally any future tensions between party pragmatists and idealists.     

Der Einfluss von Mandatstyp und Wahlkreiseigenschaften auf die inhaltlichen Positionen in Parlamentsreden: Eine Untersuchung anhand der parlamentarischen Debatten im Deutschen Bundestag von 1998 bis 2002

Giving speeches in parliament is a key element of elected representatives for signalling their policy agenda and their ideological positions to their party and their electorate. Taking a specific programmatic position might increase the chances of an MP to get re‐nominated and to win again a seat in the legislature. In this paper, we build on approaches of responsive behaviour of political actors and on principal agent theories and ask which variables can explain the programmatic positions adopted by MPs in their speeches. To answer our research question, we collected all speeches related to economic policy issues given by members of the German Bundestag in the time period between 1998 and 2002. We estimated their individual policy positions with computerised methods of content analysis. We combine this data with information on the characteristics of MPs, their position in party, parliament and government and, in addition, with the socioeconomic structure and former election results within the MPs’ constituency. The results show that German MPs take the characteristics and the economic problem pressure of their constituencies into account when speaking in parliament, so that there is empirical evidence for responsive and vote‐seeking behaviour of German MPs. In addition, political and institutional factors like the membership in committees or in (former) cabinets and the way how an MP was elected – directly or by party list – play a role for the degree of MP's programmatic deviation from the party line.     

For Whom the Bellwether Polls: The Electorate of Eden‐Monaro as an Indicator of Australian Electoral Trends

This article examines the concept of bellwether electorates through a case study of the federal electorate of Eden‐Monaro. Eden‐Monaro is known in Australia for its unparalleled bellwether record, that is, as an electorate whose results consistently approximate national results. The article finds that bellwether seats must have an enduring demographic partisan balance between major parties, organisational competitiveness between the parties in that electorate, and national factors must outweigh local factors in determining election results. A study of Eden‐Monaro particularly focusing on data from the 2013 elections, demonstrates that the seat meets these criteria, and that Eden‐Monaro's bellwether status is not merely coincidence. We argue that if used cautiously, the bellwether concept can be valuable as an indicator of national trends, rather than for any supposed predictive capacity.     

Australia and the Emergence of the Modern Two-Party System

Although the Australian party system is accepted in some literature as a "classic" example of a two-party system, information about how this system came about does not feature prominently in international studies on political parties. It is here argued that Australia indeed blazed the trail for the two-party model by being the first to link parliamentary organisation directly to a mass electorate.     

Party Potential and the Pattern of Party Competition in the 2003 Swiss Federal Elections

This article explores both the party potential of the five major parties in Switzerland at the 2003 elections and how well the parties actually did in relation to how well they could have done. A party's electoral potential depends on both the probability of the electorate voting for the party and on the probability of individual voters participating in an election. The analysis shows that the SVP and the CVP were successful in mobilising their potential voters in the 2003 elections, while the FDP did almost as badly as they could have done. However, compared to the potential of the FDP or the SP, the overall potential of the SVP is limited. For the SVP, issue specific factors account for the mobilising success. This is especially the case for its stands against the EU and asylum seekers. The CVP profited from the Ruth Metzler effect, who was a key figure in the 2003 CVP campaign.     

Voter confusion in German federal elections: the Baden-Württemberg electoral system as a possible alternative

Despite its performance and popularity, the German electoral system is partly still subject to critique. However, most critics focus on mechanics and results, thereby largely neglecting the perspective of the voter. This article argues that certain ways of split-ticket voting in German Bundestag elections point to the fact that a considerable part of the electorate is ignorant of the functions of the two votes. It analyses whether this flaw could be corrected by shifting to a very similar system, but one which only provides a single vote ballot, such as the Baden-Württemberg state electoral system. For this purpose, the Baden-Württemberg system is scrutinised in regard to possible misunderstandings on the side of the voters. Although a close examination of this globally unique system does not show symptoms that would indicate such a problem, the article cautions against a rash adoption of the Baden-Württemberg system at the federal level. On the one hand, this is due to limitations of the methods used in analysing voting behaviour. On the other hand, the state system suffers from shortcomings which make it unsuitable for use as a model. Finally, the article assesses the possible benefits of reform at the federal level and how far-reaching it should be.     

The grundgesetz after 50 years: Analysing changes in the German constitution

Fifty years after its original drafting, the German constitution has seen its text amended many times. Indeed, among OECD countries, the Grundgesetz has one of the highest rates of constitutional change. This article analyses these changes. It does so in a quantitative manner in its first section, before proceeding to ask how the numerous changes can be explained. Three approaches from the legal and political science literature are presented: one emphasising historical‐structural factors, one analysing changes as constitutional revisionism, and an institutional approach which focuses on the conditions for constitutional amendment. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are then compared and contrasted, before the article concludes with an assessment of the characteristics of German constitutional policy.     

Political opposition and the challenges of a dominant party system: The democratic alliance in South Africa

The African National Congress enjoys a position of leviathan-like dominance in South Africa. In official opposition stands the Democratic Alliance whose support has risen considerably since South Africa's first democratic elections in 1994. The white electorate strongly favours the party over its main rival, the Freedom Front Plus. The coloured community in the Western Cape has also given the Democratic Alliance its support. Although the party has done well in attracting the support of ethnic minority groups it has not been so successful among the African electorate. In accounting for the success of the Democratic Alliance this article considers three themes: firstly, the reasons why white voters, especially Afrikaners, shifted their support to the party; secondly, the brand of South African patriotism now used by the party to promote the primacy of a non-racial South African identity; and finally, the party's understanding of political opposition and the obstacles that exist to it making further electoral progress.     

Class‐Biased Electoral Participation: The Youth Vote in Chile

There is no other country where the division between the old and young electorate is as striking as in Chile. For older voters, turnout exceeded, on average, 90 percent in 2009; for those aged less than 30, it fell below 30 percent. Using individual survey data from 2006, 2008, and 2010, this article studies the current socioeconomic composition of the Chilean young electorate. First, it shows that the young electorate is class‐biased. Income is highly correlated with both registration and turnout even after controlling for education. Second, it presents evidence that class bias for the whole electorate has been increasing over time, due to generational replacement. The results are not promising for Chile's democracy in the years to come, since equal participation is worsening over time.     

Web campaigning from a global perspective

Since the mid-1990s, political parties around the world have been moving into cyberspace. During the early years, it was not evident that many of them had any clearly defi ned ideas about why the internet would prove useful, or how they should present themselves on it. As time has passed, however, a number of key uses for the new technology have emerged as well some common trends in parties' and candidates' website content and appearance. Paramount among those uses has been the increasing use of the World Wide Web (WWW) and email as electioneering tools. This paper aims to chart the development of so-called "cyber-campaigning" by political parties both in terms of what they are doing (supply side) and also how the electorate are responding (demand side). The two key questions that will be addressed are 1) whether the practice is adding anything new to parties' campaign practices, and 2) what difference, if any, it is making for voters. Does cyber-campaigning play a decisive role in terms of changing minds, if not hearts? The analysis covers developments in cyber-campaigning across a number of contexts but has particular emphasis on Europe, the US, and Australia. Beginning with an historical overview, we chart the rise of web campaigning since the mid-1990s in the US and then move to look at the academic research that has attempted to compare and contrast website content and quality and also explain the distribution of party and candidate sites. After identifying some of the key elements within the cyber-campaign tool box, and the factors that appear to promote its practice, we then turn to look at the audience for election websites and discuss the crucial issue of the extent to which having a website actually matters for parties. One obvious measure of success may be whether the site actually produces an increase in the electoral support for the party. However, using such a measure may present problems given that more than half of the electorate in most countries remains without access to the web. Perhaps cyber-campaigns benefi t parties and candidates in more subtle and diffuse ways? Would perhaps having an attractive and user friendly website contribute to a positive image of organisational competence, and more importantly, contemporary relevance?     

When $262 Billion Is Not Enough: Rethinking Reserve Accumulation in South Korea

In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, South Korea was hit hard by a sudden reversal in capital flows, a severe credit crunch and extreme exchange-rate instability. Despite having accumulated large holdings of reserves in a self-help strategy to hedge against such capital account shocks, the government was ultimately forced to abandon its defensive position and ask for external assistance. This article provides a critical examination of the broader forces behind Korea’s reserve accumulation and its problematic consequences. In addition to explaining reserve accumulation as a financially induced phenomenon, the economic costs of reserve hoarding are estimated and its efficacy evaluated in light of the crisis. It is shown that Korea’s reserve accumulation, undertaken as a costly form of self-insurance, was neither sufficient nor efficient in guarding against the volatility of global financial markets. To navigate the pitfalls of financial globalisation more successfully and cost-effectively, Korea needs to go beyond focusing exclusively on the asset side of its vulnerable international liquidity position by blindly hoarding more reserves at ever-escalating costs. It needs to also tackle the liabilities side of the ledger by reducing its heavy exposure to short-term, flight-prone foreign capital.     

Representatives and Represented in England, 1660–89

SUMMARY

This article considers the tensions and ambiguities in the attitudes of members of the English House of Commons towards those they represented. Constitutionally, the Commons assented to laws and taxes in the name of, and on behalf of, the people and presented the nation's grievances to the king. They were thus conscious to some extent of the need to defend the people's interests and to justify their conduct to the electorate and to their neighbours. However, memories of the civil wars made them nervous of popular involvement in politics and strongly resistant to any suggestion that ‘the people’ in whose name they spoke had any right to be consulted on ‘public’ issues, still less to tell them how to act. The latter part of the article explores one aspect of this attitude, the concern to maintain the confidentiality of proceedings in Parliament and to restrict the dissemination of parliamentary news, which meant that only in 1680–81 did the Commons agree to the printing of their ‘votes’.     

Franz Josef Strauß ‐ lasting legacy or transitory phenomenon?

Franz Josef Strauβ died in October 1988, exactly two years before German unity. He was undoubtedly one of Germany's most dynamic and controversial post‐war politicians, who aroused very strong emotions in the electorate, ranging from great support to condemnation. During his political career Strauβ had tremendous power and influence. As the tenth anniversay of his death approaches, this article sets out to assess his contribution to both Bavarian and German politics. Did he represent a transitory phenomenon or did he leave behind a lasting legacy?     

Sinophobia as Corporate Tactic and the Response of Host Communities

China's State Council has charged that in 2009 BHP Billiton inflamed Australians' fear of “Chinese colour” in order to undermine Chinalco's (Aluminium Corporation of China) effort to increase its share of the Rio Tinto company. Though unproven, this is a serious charge and the more so because it suggests there is a risk that in the future firms challenged by Chinese competitors may emulate the alleged practice. Given this possibility, anti-racists require a sophisticated understanding of how firms might incorporate Sinophobia into their business strategies and how Chinese foreign direct investment is viewed by national and local communities. To further this response, we review the literature on the use of racism as a corporate tactic, discuss the Chinalco-BHP struggle, and provide a study of how one community reacted when offered the chance to host a large Chinese investment.     

No Country for the Market: The Regulation of Finance in Germany after the Crisis

The severity with which the financial crisis struck Germany in 2008 came as a shock to German elites. The relatively traditional shape of its bank-based financial system was supposed to isolate the country from the vagaries of Anglo-Saxon capitalism. Instead, the government was forced to unprecedented steps, such as the de facto nationalisation of banks and an unlimited guarantee on savings deposits. A comprehensive reform of financial regulation in the country seemed imperative. This article evaluates change in the institutional structure of financial sector regulation and supervision in Germany. The inconclusive debate about the reorganisation of financial supervision, the emergence of new regulation in the field of bank restructuring, and the attempted reform of the deposit insurance system are used as empirical cases. It is argued that the constraints of the German political system impeded the comprehensive reform that might have been expected after a major shock. Instead, a pattern of institutional layering was perpetuated which contains the germs of future dysfunctions.     

Suffrage Extensions and Voting Patterns in Latin America: Is Mobilization a Source of Decay?

This article examines whether changes in electoral participation contributed to electoral volatility in Latin America between 1945 and 2000. As a result of literacy voting requirements and authoritarian interludes that disenfranchised large portions of the population, new voters in Latin America probably had different political interests from the previous electorate and were not socialized to electoral politics. The article considers the hypothesis that the inclusion of new voters with different interests produces an immediate, short‐term change in aggregate voting patterns, and a lack of socialization of new voters generates lingering instability in electoral behavior. Accounting for confounding factors, the analysis of legislative elections in 12 countries indicates that the expansion of the electorate temporarily disrupted voting patterns in Latin America but did not lead to long‐run party system decay.     

Referendums Are True Democratic Devices

Here democracy will simply mean power of the people, one of the important tasks of democratic theorists being to understand how this particular power can be enacted. Referendums will be considered as one of the mechanisms enacting that power by allowing the people to ratify laws. We will not ask here if referendums can be democratic, but how to make it as democratic as possible, and will suggest some reforms pursuing this goal, such as a strong monitoring of campaign budgets, mandatory vote, constructive referendums, etc. The criticisms made in this debate fall under two broad figures: first a maximalist objection to direct democracy, criticizing these institutions for not being perfectly democratic, and then a form of de‐politicization of direct democracy. We argue on the contrary that direct democracy must be compared to actual regimes, and that it emerges from and is grounded on conflicts.     

Deciding on the Electoral System: Chile's Adoption of Proportional Representation in 1925

In 1925 a new electoral system was introduced in Chile. This reform changed the electoral formula from a cumulative voting system to a proportional one (d'Hondt) and established new rules about district magnitude and form of voting. It has been argued that this reform was motivated by the emergence of new parties or the expansion of the electorate. This article offers an alternative explanation: in the case of Chile, the main reason for the electoral reform was the parties' need to solve problems of strategic coordination stemming from the characteristics of the Chilean cumulative voting system. In this context, the Chilean case shows that there are many routes to proportionality.     

Ordinary Singapore: The Decline of Singapore Exceptionalism

For decades Singapore’s ruling elite has sought to legitimate its rule by claiming to be a talented and competent elite that has made Singapore an exception among its neighbours – an exemplar of success and progress in a sea of mediocrity. In this article it is contended that this basis of legitimation has been irreversibly damaged. In essence, it is suggested that the governing People’s Action Party has lost control of the national narrative, and its achievements are increasingly regarded as being “ordinary” by the electorate. The mystique of exceptionalism, which was the basis on which the government was widely presumed to be above the need for close scrutiny and accountability, has collapsed. This collapse has substantially levelled the political playing field, at least in terms of expectations and assumptions. The government can and probably will continue to win elections and rule through its control of the instruments of institutional power, but the genie of scepticism and accountability has been released from its bottle, and it is hard to see how it can be put back in. This fundamentally changes the condition of Singapore politics: the narrative of exceptionalism is dead and the Singapore elite finds itself struggling to cope in a new and critical political environment.