DOES GUN PREVALENCE AFFECT TEEN GUN CARRYING AFTER ALL?*

Previous research suggests that American adolescents usually have ready access to guns, and that the extent of misuse of guns by adolescents is not much affected by local gun prevalence or regulation. This “futility” claim is based on one interpretation of survey data from several cities, but has not been tested directly. Here we do so using microdata from a nationally representative survey, the 1995 National Survey of Adolescent Males. Using the restricted geo‐coded version of these data, and conditioning on an extensive set of covariates, we find (among other results) that the likelihood of gun carrying increases markedly with the prevalence of gun ownership in the given community. We also analyze the propensity to carry other types of weapons, finding that it is unrelated to the local prevalence of gun ownership. The prevalence of youths carrying both guns and other weapons is positively related to the local rate of youth violence (as measured by the robbery rate), confirmatory evidence that weapons carrying by youths is motivated in part by self‐protection.     

THE FACTUAL FOUNDATION FOR CERTAIN KEY ASSUMPTIONS OF GUN CONTROL

The case for legal restrictions on gun ownership and use as a strategy for reducing criminal violence relies on factual assumptions about the nature of gun ownership and violent behavior. Five of the most crucial ones are identified and subjected to a comparison with the available empirical evidence. All of the following assumptions were found to be substantially at variance with the evidence: (1) Guns are five times deadlier than the weapons most likely to be substituted for them in assaults in which guns are not available. (2) The sight of a gun can elicit aggression, due to the learned association between guns and violence. (3) If guns are made more expensive, more difficult to obtain, or legally risky to own, people will do without them. (4) Guns are useless for self-defense or protection of one's family, home, or business, and have no deterrent effect on criminals. (5) Homicides are largely "crimes of passion" committed by otherwise law-abiding citizens not distinguishable from other people. Therefore, control must be directed at all gun owners rather than select criminal subgroups.     

Student Weapon Possession and the “Fear and Victimization Hypothesis”: Unraveling the Temporal Order

Using longitudinal data from nearly 4,000 students across 113 public schools in Kentucky, we attempt to unravel the direction of the relationships between student weapon carrying and various objective and subjective school‐crime experiences, including victimization, perceived risk of school victimization, and fear of school victimization. Overall, we found little support for the idea that fear and victimization increase weapon carrying, controlling for other theoretically important predictors, including delinquent offending. While 7th‐grade victimization was modestly associated with increased non‐gun weapon carrying in 8th grade, high perceptions of individual victimization risk in 7th grade decreased both subsequent gun and non‐gun weapon carrying. Fear of criminal victimization in 7th grade did not predict either type of subsequent (8th‐grade) weapon carrying. Though fear, risk, and victimization were inconsistent predictors of gun and non‐gun weapon carrying, we found strong and consistent support for the effects of weapon carrying on subsequent fear, risk, victimization, and offending. However, contrary to the implications of fear and victimization hypotheses, both gun carrying and non‐gun weapon carrying in the 8th grade increased fear of school crime, perceived risk, and actual victimization in the 9th grade. Implications of these findings for the applicability of a “weapons” or “triggering” effect are discussed.     

Intervening in gun markets: an experiment to assess the impact of targeted gun-law messaging

The objective of this study was to assess whether targeting new gun buyers with a public safety message aimed at improving gun law awareness can modify gun purchasers’ behaviors. Between May 2007 and September 2008, 2,120 guns were purchased in two target neighborhoods of the City of Los Angeles. Starting in August 2007, gun buyers initiating transactions on odd-numbered days received a letter signed by prominent law enforcement officials, indicating that law enforcement had a record of their gun purchase and that the gun buyer should properly record future transfers of the gun. The letters arrived during buyers’ 10-day waiting periods, before they could legally return to the store to collect their new gun. Subsequent gun records were extracted to assess the letter’s effect on legal secondary sales, reports of stolen guns, and recovery of the gun in a crime. An intent-to-treat analysis was also conducted as a sensitivity check to remedy a lapse in the letter program between May and August 2007. The letter appears to have no effect on the legal transfer rate or on the short-term rate of guns subsequently turning up in a crime. However, we found that the rate at which guns are reported stolen for those who received the letter is more than twice the rate for those who did not receive the letter (p value = 0.01). Those receiving the letter reported their gun stolen at a rate of 18 guns per 1,000 gun-years and those not receiving the letter reported their gun stolen at a rate of 7 guns per 1,000 gun-years. Of those receiving the letter, 1.9% reported their gun stolen during the study period compared to 1.0% for those who did not receive the letter. The percentage of guns reported stolen in these neighborhoods is high, indicating a high rate of true gun theft, a regular practice of using stolen-gun reports to separate the gun buyer from future misuse of the gun, or some blend of both. Simple, targeted gun law awareness campaigns can modify new gun buyers’ behaviors. Additional follow-up or modifications to this initiative might be needed to impact the rate at which guns enter the illegal gun market and ultimately are recovered in crimes.     

Air guns: toys or weapons?

Air guns and blank guns may appear relatively harmless at first glance, but they are, in fact, potentially destructive, even lethal, weapons. Approximately 2 to 2.5 million nonpowder firearms are sold annually, and again approximately 12.9 per 100,000 population are treated for such injuries in hospital emergency departments each year in the United States. Unfortunately, these guns are considered to be a toy for children. Therefore, incidents of air gun injuries are gradually increasing. Although such injuries may initially be considered trivial, it may signify severe internal tissue pathologies. These apparently trivial injuries may have catastrophic consequences if unnoticed. In this study, we report 4 cases with head injury due to a shot by these guns. The cases indicate that these people had used the guns belonging to their parents for the purpose of suicide. The cases also show that these machines are not innocent.     

Gun Availability and Robbery Rates: A Panel Study of Large U.S. Cities, 1974–1978

This paper examines the hypothesis that crime rates and the availability of firearms form a "vicious circle," so that increases in one lead to increases in the other. Two waves of panel data are used to estimate the relationship between rates of robbery and the relative availability of guns in a sample of large U.S. cities. The results indicate that total robbery rates and gun availability had no influence on each other, but that weapons choice in robbery and gun availability did form a mutually reinforcing cycle. Some implications of these findings are considered.     

Comparison of wound morphology following gunshots by machine guns and sub-machine guns

Automatic weapons such as machine guns and submachine guns are found in the German-speaking region only in special army and police units and appear accordingly rarely in homicides, suicides and accidents. In the following, the findings in two cases of death with the use of machine and submachine guns are presented. The first case was a fatal accident during shooting on a training area (current machine gun of the German army, calibre 7.62 x 51 mm), the second case was a killing during a physical conflict (submachine gun MP 40 from World War II, calibre 9 x 19 mm). In the case with the machine gun autopsy disclosed typical entry holes corresponding to the calibre, but unusually large exit wounds with tissue bridges in the wound ground, measuring 4 x 2.5 cm in diameter. By contrast, the second case (submachine gun) showed "normal" entry and exit wounds. The differences are mainly caused by deviating ballistic data of the ammunition used. They are discussed against the background of literature on wound ballistics.     

INFLUENCE AND SELECTION PROCESSES IN WEAPON CARRYING DURING ADOLESCENCE: THE ROLES OF STATUS,AGGRESSION, AND VULNERABILITY*

The role of peers in weapon carrying (guns, knives, and other weapons) inside and outside the school was examined in this study. Data stem from a longitudinal study of a high-risk sample of male students (7th to 10th grade; N = 167) from predominantly Hispanic low-socio-economic-status schools in the United States. Longitudinal social-network models were used to test whether similarity in weapon carrying among friends results from peer influence or selection. From a goal-framing approach, we argue that weapon carrying might function as a status symbol in friendship networks and, consequently, be subject to peer influence. The findings indicate that weapon carrying is indeed a result of peer influence. The role of status effects was supported by findings that weapon carrying increased the number of friendship nominations received by peers and reduced the number of given nominations. In addition, peer-reported aggressiveness predicted weapon carrying 1 year later. These findings suggest that adolescent weapon carrying emerges from a complex interplay between the attraction of weapon carriers for affiliation, peer influence in friendship networks, and individual aggression.     

Packing Heat: Attitudes Regarding Concealed Weapons on College Campuses

Gun violence at American colleges and universities has rekindled the debate surrounding concealed weapons on campus. This study examined college student and faculty opinions on two college campuses, focusing on their attitudes towards private citizens carrying concealed guns on campus. Data were collected during the fall 2008 and spring 2009, and over 2,100 students, staff, faculty, and administrators on the two campuses participated in the research. The results indicate over 70 % of respondents oppose the option of carrying concealed guns on campus. In addition, the idea of more guns on campus makes the majority of students and faculty feel less safe, and allowing concealed weapons serves to decrease the sense of campus safety. This study continues to empirically advance the argument that those who live, work, and study do not want more guns on campus. Further research in this area, including an expanded range of the nation’s college campuses, should be explored.     

Accidental death with tear gas pen gun: a case report.

A case of accidental death resulting from a dropped tear gas pen gun is described. Tear gas pen guns can be easily altered to fire regular ammunition and can accommodate a variety of ammunition. Other similar pocket-sized weapons are mentioned.     

The Legal Context of School Violence: The Effectiveness of Federal, State, and Local Law Enforcement Efforts to Reduce Gun Violence in Schools

In the wake of recent school shootings, communities and legislatures are searching for law enforcement solutions to the perceived epidemic of school violence. A variety of legal measures have been debated and proposed. These include: the enactment of tougher gun control laws and more vigorous federal and local enforcement of existing gun control laws; the enactment of laws imposing civil or criminal liability on parents for their children's violent behavior; the establishment of specialized courts and prosecution strategies for handling juveniles who are charged with weapons offenses; stricter enforcement of school disciplinary codes; reform of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act to make it easier to expel students for weapons violations; and greater use of alternative schools as placements for students who are charged with weapons violations.
  This article provides a legal and empirical analysis of proposed legislation in these areas as informed by social science research on the patterns of school violence, gun acquisition by juveniles, and the effectiveness of various laws and law enforcement measures. It proposes and discusses recommendations for legal reform. While efforts to reduce school violence will be most effective at the state and local levels, the United States federal government has an important role to play, particularly in federal‐state partnerships aimed at disrupting illegal gun markets, and through the formulation of national standards and guidelines. These standards and guidelines are for the enforcement of existing laws; inter‐agency law enforcement cooperation and information‐sharing (particularly using computer‐based analysis); effective school discipline and alternative educational settings for disruptive youth; and psycho‐educational interventions designed to detect and prevent school violence in the first place.     

THE TRADE IN TOOLS: THE MARKET FOR ILLICIT GUNS IN HIGH‐RISK NETWORKS

Illegal guns circulating among high‐risk networks represent a threat to the security and well‐being of urban neighborhoods. Research findings reveal that illegal firearms are usually acquired through a variety of means, including theft and diversions from legitimate firearms commerce. Little is known, however, about the underground gun markets supplying the gang and drug networks responsible for a large share of gun violence in U.S. cities. In this article, we take a mixed‐methods approach, combining trace analyses of recovered handguns with ethnographic interviews of high‐risk gun users to develop new insights on the entry of guns into three criminal networks in Boston. We find that guns possessed by Boston gang members are of a different character compared with other crime guns; these guns are more likely to be older firearms originating from New Hampshire, Maine, and I‐95 southern states. The results of our qualitative research reveal that gang members and drug dealers pay inflated prices for handguns diverted by traffickers exploiting unregulated secondary market transactions, with significant premiums paid for high‐caliber semiautomatic pistols. Taken together, these findings provide an analytic portrait of the market for illicit guns among those most proximate to violence, yielding novel empirical, theoretical, and practical insights into the problem of criminal gun access.     

Unusual homicide by air gun with pellet embolisation.

A homicidal case by an air gun involving a 73-year-old woman who was found dead in her home is described. At autopsy, two gunshot wounds were observed on the left anterior chest and the right back. There was neither exit wound nor powder burns. The fatal pellet, 0.9 g and 5.5mm diameter, penetrated the left anterior chest and the heart to cause cardiac tamponade (200 ml) before lodging in the left subclavian artery. Death was due to cardiac tamponade.This case has exhibited two rare phenomena: homicide by an air gun and pellet embolisation. This is the first homicide case by use of air gun in Japan and demonstrates that although it may be rare, air guns can be used as potential homicidal weapons. This experience will alert our society and others on the potential hazards of air guns we have tended to regard as toys.     

The nature and circumstances of defensive gun use: A content analysis of interpersonal conflict situations involving criminal offenders

Analyses of gun-regulation policies have recently focused on the benefits of firearms, and research has shown that guns are frequently used for defense. An important implication is that restricting gun ownership may increase the net harm in the United States. However, a more thorough understanding of gun-defense situations is required before conclusions can be drawn about the harm that is prevented or generated through defensive gun uses (DGUs). This study examined a unique subset of DGU incidents that involved convicted offenders as defenders. It found that DGUs are not likely to provide similar social benefits, implying that prevalence estimates may not simultaneously estimate social benefits and that the relationship among gun carrying, encountering risky situations, and DGU is more complex than has been portrayed.     

Characteristics and dynamics of illegal firearms markets: Implications for a supply-side enforcement strategy

The question of whether the illegal firearms market serving criminals and juveniles can be disrupted has been vigorously debated. Recent research suggests that illegal gun markets consist of both “point sources” (ongoing diversions through scofflaw dealers and trafficking rings) and “diffuse sources” (acquisitions through theft and informal, voluntary sales). To the extent that systematic gun trafficking is an important source of weapons for criminals and youth, focused regulatory and investigative resources may be effective in disrupting the illegal flow. In this research, we use data on traced firearms to examine one aspect of the illegal gun market that holds the most immediate promise for focused supply-side enforcement efforts—close-to-retail diversions. We find that almost one-third of traceable crime guns were recently diverted from legitimate retail firearms commerce and that nearly one-third had two or more indicators of gun trafficking involving dealers, purchasers, and possessors. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding illegal gun markets and for developing effective supply-side enforcement strategies.     

Crime Gun Risk Factors: Buyer,Seller, Firearm,and Transaction Characteristics Associated with Gun Trafficking and Criminal Gun Use

Objective

To better understand the workings of illicit gun markets by identifying the characteristics of buyers, sellers, firearms, and transactions that predict whether a gun is used in crime or obtained by an illegal possessor subsequent to purchase.

Methods

The study employed multivariate survival analysis utilizing data on nearly 72,000 guns sold in the Baltimore metropolitan area from 1994 through 1999 and subsequent recoveries of over 1,800 of those guns by police in Baltimore through early 2000.

Results

Adjusting for exposure time, guns sold in the Baltimore area had a 3.2 % chance of being recovered by police in Baltimore within 5 years. Guns were more likely to be recovered if: they were semiautomatic, medium to large caliber, easily concealable, and cheap; the buyers were black, young, female, living in or close to the city, and had previously purchased guns that were recovered by police; the dealer making the sale was, most notably, in or near the city and had made prior sales of crime guns; and the gun was purchased in a multiple gun transaction. The adoption of a law regulating secondhand gun sales in Maryland did not appear to affect the likelihood of a gun’s recovery, though the extent of the law’s enforcement is unclear.

Conclusions

Risk factors identified in this study could be used to guide gun trafficking investigations, regulation of gun dealers, and the development of prevention efforts for high-risk actors and areas. The results also provide some support for policies that regulate particular types of firearms and transactions. Limitations to the study and directions for future research are discussed.     

The Mobility of Stolen Guns in Quebec

Research on crime guns has traditionally focused on the time-to-crime measure. This study shifts the focus to guns that entered the illegal firearm market through thefts. This subset of guns allows us to examine the same process and objective underlying the time-to-crime measure—that being the recovery process. Two new measures are proposed. The first, time-to-find, assesses the time span between a gun’s theft and seizure by police. The second, distance-to-recovery, introduces a spatial dimension to the crime gun repertoire by measuring the distance a firearm travels between its points of theft and seizure. Using a mix of national (Canada) and provincial (Quebec) data on crime guns, this study’s findings show that these two new measures are tapping into a unique phenomenon: whereas time-to-crime accounts for a gun’s complete lifecycle, time-to-find and distance-to-recovery reflect a gun’s criminal lifecycle. At the multivariate level, the most influential factor explaining both time-to-find and distance-to-recovery is the registration status of the gun. Non-registered crime guns took longer to find and traveled lengthier distances between the moments and points of theft and seizure. Our explanation for this is that non-registered guns may be stolen from sources that are more problematic to begin with and, thus, result in the gun’s transition toward a segment of the illegal market that is also more problematic and in demand than the pool of firearms represented by registered guns. This would embed the firearm more deeply into the illegal market, making it more difficult to retrieve and more likely to be dispersed across a wider geographical plane than guns which are registered to begin with.     

FEDERAL LEGISLATION AND GUN MARKETS: HOW MUCH HAVE RECENT REFORMS OF THE FEDERAL FIREARMS LICENSING SYSTEM REDUCED CRIMINAL GUN SUPPLIERS?*

Research Summary: Following reforms of the federal firearms licensing system, nearly 70% of the nation's retail gun dealers active in 1994 dropped out of business by 1998. Dropout dealers supplied one‐third of guns recovered and traced by police but were linked to fewer crime guns than were other dealers, most likely because dropouts tended to be lower volume dealers. It is not clear if guns sold by dropouts had a higher probability of being used in crime, but guns supplied by dropouts did not move into criminal channels more quickly. Policy Implications: If federal reforms have reduced the availability of guns to criminals, the effect has probably been more modest than suggested by the overall reduction in dealers. Producing further reductions in the flow of guns to criminals through oversight of gun dealers will require refinement in the identification of problematic gun dealers.     

CITIZEN GUN OWNERSHIP AND CRIMINAL DETERRENCE: THEORY,RESEARCH, AND POLICY*

Research on the general and specific deterrents emanating from citizenowned firearms is examined under assumptions about deterrence. Only slight and indirect empirical evidence for deterrence exists in the area of citizen gun ownership. The crime-reducing effects associated with public policies that support civilian gun ownership are balanced in light of other, negative public health factors associated with citizen-owned guns.     

The Impact of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapon Ban on Gun Violence Outcomes: An Assessment of Multiple Outcome Measures and Some Lessons for Policy Evaluation

The Federal Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 bans a group of military-style semiautomatic firearms (i.e., assault weapons) and ammunition magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds. Ban advocates argue that these weapons are particularly dangerous because they facilitate the rapid firing of high numbers of shots. Though the banned guns and magazines were used in only a modest fraction of gun crimes before the law, it was hypothesized that a decrease in their use might reduce gunshot victimizations, particularly those involving multiple wounds and/or victims. In response to a Congressional mandate for an impact assessment of the law, this study utilized national and local data sources and a variety of analytical techniques to examine the ban's short-term impact on gun violence. The ban may have contributed to a reduction in gun homicides, but a statistical power analysis of our model indicated that any likely impact from the ban will be very difficult to detect statistically for several more years. We found no evidence of reductions in multiple-victim gun homicides or multiple-gunshot wound victimizations. The findings should be treated cautiously due to the methodological difficulties of making a short-term assessment of the ban and because the ban's long-term effects could differ from the short-term impacts revealed by this study.