Post-GE13: Any Closer to Ethnic Harmony and Democratic Change?

Abstract

Malaysia’s general election in 2008 seemed seriously to challenge the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), converting its simple party dominance into a two-party system. UMNO elites were stunned by the results, encouraging some of them to call for political reforms and greater cross-ethnic cooperation. Gradually, most reformers were swept aside. Even so, expectations mounted among politicians and observers that the opposition would make still greater gains in the next general election, held in 2013, possibly even winning outright. However, though the opposition did win a slight majority of the popular vote and more seats in parliament, UMNO was able to claim victory. It did this by tightening its grip on bedrock Malay supporters in rural areas, while retaining its hold on voters in Sabah and Sarawak, then heightening its numbers through extreme malapportionment of the country’s single-member districts. Further, if UMNO elites had grown fractious after Malaysia’s 12th general election, they displayed new unity, even defiance, after Malaysia’s 13th general election (GE13). Thus, they perpetuated the ethnic suspicions of the Chinese that they had heightened during the campaigning; and they imposed new controls on opposition party leaders and organisers. Far from advancing democratic change, then, GE13 has served to roll democracy back.     

Singapore’s 2015 General Election: Explaining PAP’s Resounding Win

Abstract

While Singapore’s 15th general election came about as expected, the ensuing results did not. In view of the opposition’s performance in the 2011 general election and the general sense that the ruling party had done well despite its performance being anything but sterling, the results were somewhat shocking. Even the leaders of the ruling party were caught by surprise at the party’s ability to garner 70% of the valid votes, 10% more than in the previous election. While many factors played a role, it was the opposition parties that lost the election rather than the ruling party that won it. Most of the opposition parties were rejected by the voters on grounds of not being worthy of support. The leading opposition party, the Workers’ Party, also suffered as many voters feared that it might perform too well to the detriment of the ruling party. In the end, the 2015 general elections strengthened the one-party-dominant state in Singapore and the quest for greater political representation was placed on the back burner.     

So Close and Yet So Far: Strategies in the 13th Malaysian Elections

Abstract

This article examines the strategies employed by the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional (or National Front), and the opposition alliance, Pakatan Rakyat (People’s Alliance), in the 13th general election held in Malaysia in May 2013. It argues that while the opposition used the right strategy for the 2013 campaign, it lost because it could not overcome the three biggest hurdles for opposition politics in Malaysia: East Malaysia, the rural Malay votes and a biased electoral system.     

Contradictions of India’s Right-wing Government and Growing Disenchantment

ABSTRACT

The right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party won India’s 2014 general election by promising development for all. Such promises have generally turned out to be empty. A recent nationwide survey shows that there is widespread disenchantment with this government. This article briefly discusses the disappointing economic and social-political record of the government. Based on empirical information from the above-mentioned survey, it then discusses how the dismal development record is registering in the minds of people who are becoming disillusioned with the government. The article also provides some general reflections on the government, including on the internal connection between government’s pro-business nature and its Hindu nationalist-sectarian character spreading religious hatred and division.     

Clientelism and Control: PAP’s Fight for Safety in GE2015

Abstract

This article looks at the reasons the People’s Action Party (PAP) secured its decisive victory in the 2015 general election. The discussion examines the impact of the campaign and pre-election period on voting behaviour. While the opposition’s performance before and during the campaign reactivated its core supporters, the PAP’s control of the political narrative, rejuvenation of its grassroots machinery and effective use of resources provided an advantage that was instrumental in their electoral success. Most Singaporeans had decided how they would vote before the campaign began. Despite perceptions that the election was about the economy and the nationalist rhetoric associated with Singapore’s 50th anniversary and the passing of statesman Lee Kuan Yew, the argument in the paper suggests that the 2015 election provides insights into the breadth of clientelist politics in Singapore and how important state patronage and the control of the state are for holding on to political power in the city-state.     

The 13th Malaysian General Elections from a Sabah Perspective

Abstract

This article looks at the campaign for the 13th Malaysian election as conducted in Sabah, and will offer some observations on the local issues that were deemed particularly important by Sabah voters. It will also address the changing forms of mass mobilisation, issue-framing, and the rise of Sabah-centric politics in the state, all of which may have played a part in deciding the outcome of the election results in that state.     

De-Europeanisation through Discourse: A Critical Discourse Analysis of AKP’s Election Speeches

Abstract

This article takes issue with the question of whether Turkey has been turning away from Europe in recent years, by adopting a critical constructivist lens to understand how, rather than why, Turkey’s presumed distance from the European Union (EU) is taking place. In doing that, it seeks to analyse the ways in which the political–societal transformation of the country as distanced from the EU is enabled by certain discursive practices which in turn contribute to the growing rift between Turkey and the EU. This is mainly conducted through a critical discourse analysis (CDA) of texts produced by former Prime Minister and now President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an on Europe and the EU during key election periods starting with the 12 June 2011 general election.     

Singapore General Election 2015 and the Role of Citizenship Education

Abstract

This article explores the role of education, in particular citizenship education, in shaping the Singapore electorate. An understanding of the history of citizenship education helps to shed light on the contemporary political culture in Singapore. The extent to which democratic citizenship education has been taught in schools since 1958 is explored. Singapore’s citizenship education has consistently stressed the duties and responsibilities of citizenship, patriotism, national identity and moral values—with the goal of nation-building and legitimising the People’s Action Party state. This reflective historical piece on Singapore’s educational history adds a relatively unexplored facet to the discussions on the general election 2015 results as well as Singapore’s subsequent political development. The results of the 2015 general election in Singapore, seen in this light, are not so surprising, as they reflect the success of the state’s citizenship education in shaping the current political culture.     

Singapore Beyond Ethnicity: Rethinking the Group Representative Constituency Scheme

Abstract

The resounding victory of the People’s Action Party (PAP) in the 2015 Singapore general elections surprised many observers. Several observers had considered the previous election, held in 2011, to be the new normal in Singapore politics, with the Workers’ Party being the first opposition party to win a Group Representative Constituency (GRC). Instead of its popular vote sliding from 60% in 2011, the PAP secured almost a 10% increase in its fortunes. Analysts have spoken about PAP’s hard work and the opposition’s failures when commenting on the ruling party’s success; this article, however, points out how Singapore’s electoral system, especially the GRC, continues to favour the ruling party and why it should be rethought. Introduced in 1988, the scheme ensures minority candidates (non-Chinese) are voted into parliament. Candidates contesting in a GRC form a team of Members of Parliament (MPs) with at least one minority candidate in each team. This article argues that the 2015 election results proves that Singaporeans no longer vote along ethnic lines, and non-Chinese MPs have comfortably led the GRCs and won in Single Member Constituencies. To be sure, the GRC scheme does new PAP candidates a disfavour: it weakens their legitimacy with voters, since they remain under the shadows of senior PAP candidates and cannot win elections on their own accord.     

How to Win a Lost Election: Malapportionment and Malaysia’s 2013 General Election

Abstract

Allegations of electoral irregularities loomed large prior to and following Malaysia’s 13th general election in May 2013. Yet while these irregularities elicited strong reactions domestically and internationally, they are unlikely to have played a significant role in shaping the election’s outcome. Rather than how the game was played, it was the very rules of the game itself that were responsible for returning the United Malays National Organization and its Barisan Nasional coalition to power for the 13th consecutive time, as Malaysia’s electoral institutions quietly transformed the incumbent coalition’s 4% deficit in the popular vote into a 20% winning margin of parliamentary seats. This is largely the result of substantial variation in the size of electoral districts, which had the effect of delivering parliamentary seats to Barisan Nasional with significantly fewer votes than were required by the opposition to secure its seats. This article has two primary aims. First, it seeks to understand better malapportionment in Malaysia by examining the degree of distortions at multiple institutional levels. It demonstrates these distortions to be exceptionally high from a comparative perspective. Second, it seeks to understand better the factors responsible for the size variation of electoral districts, specifically the extent to which the non-partisan factors stipulated in the constitution can explain the variation. Several tests are conducted using new data on the density of voters in electoral districts. The results strongly indicate a partisan element to malapportionment. This creates an institutionalized bias against the opposition and risks increasing polarization in the Malaysian polity.     

Resisting the Fall: The Single Dominant Party,Policies and Elections in Malaysia

Before Malaysia’s 2013 general election, one of the few remaining dominant coalitions in the world was aware it would struggle to retain power. A fledgling opposition coalition had inspired public confidence of its capacity to competently rule while public discontent with the ruling party was rife due to the ubiquity of patronage that had prevented the responsible implementation of policies. However, regime change did not occur. How does the protracted rule of Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional coalition, and the hegemonic party in it, the United Malays National Organisation, relate to debates over authoritarian durability, during a period when dominant parties struggle to sustain power? Malaysian elections have been free enough that the opposition has been able to obtain and retain control of state governments, so why has Barisan Nasional not lost power? This article reviews the 2013 election examining three issues: the significance of coalition politics; how policies have shaped voting trends; and the growing monetisation of politics. These perspectives provide insights into the institutional structure of coalitions and their conduct of politics, including clientelistic practices, forms of mobilisation and governance and the outcomes of policies introduced to address socio-economic inequities and drive economic growth.     

Beyond ‘brotherhood’ and the ‘caliphate’: Kurdish relationships to Islam in an era of AKP authoritarianism and ISIS terror

ABSTRACT

Since the rise of the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (AKP), Islam has come to play a more prominent role in public and political spheres in Turkey. This paper draws on ethnographic data gathered in Istanbul and Diyarbakir between 2013 and 2015 to highlight Kurdish attitudes to Islam. Following the electoral success of the AKP amongst Kurds in the general election of 2007, Kurdish actors have sought to incorporate Islamic sensibilities into their political offering in order to appeal to Kurdish constituents. Amid the AKP’s recent authoritarian turn and instrumentalization of religion, and the rise of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), many Kurds have sought to redefine their relationship with Islam to clearly demarcate distinctly Kurdish religious and political spaces.     

General Election 2015 in Singapore: What Social Media Did and Did not Do

Abstract

The online buzz leading up to the 2015 Singapore general election (GE2015) favoured opposition parties and personalities, encouraging perceptions that the opposition would garner more votes than in 2011. Instead, the ruling People’s Action Party won and saw an increase in their vote share from 60.1% in 2011 to 69.9%. What role, then, did social media play in this election? This study shows that, against prevailing assumptions, GE2015 was not a social media election. Through an online survey of 2,000 respondents conducted after polling day, it was found that mainstream media and their online counterparts were used most frequently and were trusted more as sources of information about the election. Online and offline political participation was also low. However, social media users were more interested in election issues, were more likely to discuss politics with others and participated more in offline political activities than non-users.     

The Fiji Election of 2014: Rights,Representation and Legitimacy in Fiji Politics

Abstract

Fiji’s 2014 election was its first in eight years, first under the 2013 constitution, and first using a common roll of electors with proportional representation. In the new parliament of 50 seats, the coup leader of 2006, Frank Bainimarama, emerged triumphant. His FijiFirst Party won 32 seats, with the Social Democratic Liberal Party, a successor party to earlier indigenous Fijian parties, winning 15 and the National Federation Party three. The election of the new parliament marked the end of Fiji’s longest period under a military government since independence. How should the significance of these elections be judged in the context of Fiji’s history? Do they represent the breakthrough to democratic stability that so many Fiji citizens have wanted for so long? Or are they just another phase of Fiji’s turbulent politics, a democratic pause before another lurch into authoritarian government?     

Gender Equality (And its Absence) in Singapore’s 2015 General Elections

Abstract

With the dust settled after Singapore’s 2015 parliamentary elections, the only aspect pundits and Singaporean politics watchers could agree on was that the People’s Action Party’s comeback from its performance at the 2011 elections, although not of Lazarus proportions, was most certainly unexpected. While the result of the 2015 elections has gone through several post-election analytical mills, what has been oddly absent in such analyses is a discussion of gender in Singaporean politics. This article considers the relationship between gender and Singaporean politics through the experience of the 2015 election and its results. It shows that while Singapore has moved some way towards assuaging the demands of liberal feminists for greater representation in the political sphere, much more has to be done in order for gender equality to be achieved. The article argues for the Group Representation Constituency method of electing parliamentarians to be adapted to ensure a greater number of female parliamentarians while a quota system may be required for cabinet to be truly representative of the female demographic of Singapore.     

Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey

Abstract

Turkey’s snap parliamentary election in November 2015 took place in an environment of growing political violence and terrorism resulting from the renewal of the Kurdish conflict in the southeast and two major suicide bombings carried out by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Presenting the coalition arithmetic, the article first examines the failure to form a government after the previous election five months earlier. It then examines the campaign for the November election, including party strategies, key issues and the role of the media, before analysing the results and the election winners and losers. In restoring a parliamentary majority for the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (Justice and Development Party – AKP) that has governed Turkey continuously for the past 13 years, the November election marked the basic continuity of Turkey’s predominant party system.     

Acts of collusion: myth,media, and the populist imagination in the 2016 United States presidential election

ABSTRACT

This article considers the hypothesis that the 2016 nomination of Hillary Clinton appeared rigged because the Democratic Party persuaded itself that the next step in guaranteeing Obama’s legacy and advancing democratic progress would be the election of the first woman president. Democracy finds logical steps in politics suspicious (even dangerous); consequently, the constructed stability and order begin to falter or appear compromised. In this context, populist figures like Trump may gain political legitimacy by claiming to be outsiders speaking with the voice of the people. Populism, founded on a mythical notion of sovereignty, promises direct access to the democratic experience through four interconnected mythologies (unity, conspiracy, the golden age, and the savior), as evident in the 2016 election. The democratic struggle accordingly extended to Trump’s attacks on the media (as “fake news”) and to the Mueller investigation of collusion between the Trump campaign and foreign actors representing the Russian government.     

Why Are There So Many Hereditary Politicians in Japan?

As will become clear from the text below, this paper is heavily based on the author's article published in Japanese in March 2009 by Nikkei BP, titled What Breeds Hereditary Politicians? The content of this work was first presented in a lecture that the author delivered in March 2008: Inequality in the Value of Votes and the Future of Japan. The author entreats the reader to bear in mind that although a certain amount of reference information which has subsequently come to light has been added to this paper, for the sake of simplicity, the results of the general election held at the end of August 2009 have not been incorporated (for example, throughout the text the Liberal Democratic Party is cited as the ruling party, as was the case before the general election). However, where appropriate, minimal footnotes have been added regarding the results of the general election and other points judged worthy of note, based on current available information as of September 3, 2009.     

Election through complaint and controversy for political power in Chile, 1874–1925

SUMMARY

This article offers reflections on the power relations between the executive and legislative branches of the Chilean state by examining the way political parties leveraged the electoral system to balance the weight of each branch in the configuration of government. The period from 1874 to 1924 is framed by a cycle of reforms to Chile’s 1833 constitution that were pushed through by liberal sectors to limit the power of the executive under the country’s presidential regime, efforts that contributed to a final breakdown of the presidential regime following civil war in 1891. That year the victorious revolutionary forces implemented a parliamentarian system that remained in place until it was overthrown by a military coup. The literature on this process has studied the use of legislative manoeuvres such as obstruction, accusation and filibuster by political parties to weaken the executive power. Little has been written, however, about the way parties exploited the rules and procedures of the electoral system and, specifically, the use of official complaints and the process known as calificación (qualification) by which congress audited final election results. This article will help fill that void, focusing on understanding how both practices worked and the effects that the election reforms of 1874, 1884 and 1890 had on them.     

Opposition Coordination in Singapore’s 2015 General Elections

Abstract

Recent political science scholarship suggests that when opposition political parties are able to coalesce into a united coalition against an authoritarian regime, they will perform better in authoritarian elections, and can more credibly bargain with the regime for liberalising reforms. Yet, most of this literature pays little attention to the variety of ways in which opposition parties cooperate with each other. Drawing on the literature on the bargaining model of war, the author sketches out a theoretical framework to explain how opposition parties coordinate to develop non-competition agreements. Such agreements entail opposition parties bargaining over which political party should contest or withdraw in which constituencies to ensure straight fights against the dominant authoritarian incumbent in each electoral district. The author then applies this framework to explain opposition coordination in Singapore’s 2015 general elections, focusing on the conflict between the Workers’ Party and the National Solidarity Party.