编后

本期专论刊发了两篇讨论美国实力变化的文章。孔祥永、梅仁毅的文章指出,近年来世界上出现了"美国软实力衰落论",但美国软实力的各个组成部分如在科技、教育、人口方面的竞争力,以及在思想、规范和制度安排方面的影响力,均未衰落;真正对美国软实力造成伤害的因素是美国民众的情绪和国内分歧。     

民主的困惑:全球化时代的美国政治逻辑

进入21世纪以来,美国遇到了新的挑战,九一一事件与一系列反恐战争、全球金融危机、日益极化的美国、美国在世界事务中的影响力相对下降,都在很大程度上冲击了美国的信心。形形色色的"美国衰落论"再度升温,甚至连一向信心满满的美国主流学界都弥漫着一种悲观气氛,世界上更是掀起了一波唱衰美国的热潮,美国遭遇到了新一轮的民主困惑。不过,美国式民主的困惑绝不是美国的衰落,而是美国民主在全球化中的反应,本质上是民主的全球化困惑。因此,美国学界关于民主困惑的讨论的重心并不是否定或放弃民主制度,而是竭力寻求美国式民主制度改革的思路;所谓的"美国衰落论"更是无从谈起,讨论它在本质上是着眼于全球化时代的民主重建。长期来看,民主的困惑将是全球化时代美国政治面临的一个根本问题,除非美国民主制度实现大规模的改革。     

“中国软实力威胁论”的缺陷——以东南亚为例

近年来,在中国同东南亚关系的问题上,美国政界和学界有不少人士颇为热衷于"中国软实力威胁论"。本文从近十几年美国和中国的东南亚政策以及东南亚国家的反应等方面入手,对这一新版威胁论的分析框架提出质疑:美国在东南亚软实力的相对下降主要是由美国自身政策以及东南亚各国在外交上的战略选择引起的;"中国软实力威胁论"的缺陷在于夸大中国在东南亚的软实力,回避美国自身政策应当承担的责任,同时还忽视东南亚国家的自主性。     

中美日印在越南的软实力评估——以在滇越南留学生为调查对象

软实力理论现已成为研究国际问题的一个重要视角。越南是中国的近邻和外交前沿,近年来中美日印四国在越南的外交举措频频,但对中美日印四国在越南软实力比较的研究成果还较少。本文从在滇越南留学生的角度研究上述四国在越南的软实力,采用问卷调查的实证研究方法,通过数据分析得出,尽管目前国内外研究机构都认为中国的软实力在快速提高,但在越南,美国和日本的软实力以较大优势领先于中国;在经济、文化、外交等方面,中国仍处于"老三"的位置。本文还提出了提高中国在越南软实力的若干建议。     

重温20世纪80年代美国学界有关“美国衰落论”的争论——兼及当下的“美国衰落论”

本文对美国学界始于20世纪80年代关于美国是否衰落所引发的辩论进行了分析介绍,特别对其中具有代表性意义的两位学者——美国衰落论的主张者保罗.肯尼迪与美国复兴论的倡导者约瑟夫.奈——的观点进行了分析对比,并就此次辩论对于我们如何看待今天美国的力量状况,以及当下的美国衰落论等问题提出了自己的看法。文章认为,此次辩论所涉及的一系列理论性问题——历史类比方法的适用性问题,如何看待历史发展的延续与变化之间的关系问题,如何量度一国之力量问题,硬权力与软权力的关系问题,文化与文明因素在国际政治中的影响与作用等问题——在今天依然具有一定的学术与社会价值,值得继续关注。     

影响美国软实力的因素分析

美国的政策是影响美国软实力强弱的主要因素;追求国家利益是美国塑造和运用软实力的动因;美国在展现其文化价值观时,如果时机和地点选择不当,或与当地文化相违背,反而会影响美国软实力的发挥,甚至酿成文化冲突和反美主义。在美国软实力的构成中,其政治影响力与文化价值影响力之间存在着分裂现象,这是影响美国发挥其软实力的因素之一。     

当代美国“民主援助”解析

美国的"民主援助"肇始于卡特政府的人权外交。里根政府建立全国民主基金会,对外"民主援助"在美国趋于制度化。九一一事件之后,推动世界的民主化更成为美国对外援助的首要目标。美国政府的对外"民主援助"不但包括对受援国进行直接的资金、物资和人力资源等方面的援助,同时还将对外经济援助与受援国的政治改革和民主化挂钩。"民主援助"不仅体现了美国政治家对于美国政治意识形态和文化价值观念的笃信,而且在新的国际形势下,"民主援助"也是美国政府运用其软实力实现国家利益的重要手段。     

软实力视阈下的日本动漫外交

近年来,日本在经济持续低迷与少子老龄化的背景下,努力寻求通过文化"软实力"来提高国家影响力的新途径。受美国学者约瑟夫·奈的启发,日本政府认识到"动漫"是日本的软实力资源之一,并实施了一系列动漫外交。日本政府的动漫外交促进了日本文化产业的发展,对构建国家形象和提升国家软实力发挥了重要作用。     

九一一后美国对外战略困境与重返政治现实

冷战结束、两极格局解体使美国的硬实力和软实力迅速提升,美国在世界范围内不断地推行霸权政策,其决策的逻辑基础是:美国是冷战对抗的最后赢家,应以胜利者姿态担当起领导世界的责任.九一一恐怖主义袭击事件发生后,美国霸权地位受到严峻挑战,体现新保守主义思想的"单边主义"、"先发制人"战略,逐渐成为影响布什政府对外决策的理论依据.阿富汗战争的胜利鼓舞了美国国内的民族主义情绪,也为布什连任美国总统奠定基础,但陷入伊拉克战争困境不仅暴露了美国决策机制的矛盾,影响美国与其他大国的关系,也使其国际形象严重受损.民主党主导国会后,有关伊拉克战争问题的辩论日趋激烈,迫使布什政府不得不对单边战略做适当调整,在处理与大国的关系、中东问题、东北亚等问题上逐渐回归政治现实,而加大对非洲国家的援助则是美国重塑国际形象的举措之一.     

当前美国对华政策的辩论、选择与走势分析

当前,美国政策精英就美国对华政策展开了一场全方位、多元化的政策大辩论。"务实容纳论""接触合作论""反省妥协论""接触融合论""接触遏制论""遏制论"等不同认识在碰撞互动。美国决策精英正弱化以往对华接触与融合的政策基调,缓慢但却明显地推动对华政策朝着挤撞方向发展。美国对中方意图的习惯性误判、美中两国国际秩序观的差异、美国认定其国内问题的"责任在中国"等因素,导致美国对华政策始终带有强烈的悲剧性色彩。在此次美国对华政策大辩论和大调整中,走出"领导陷阱"、学会"换位思考"、认清"戴维斯陷阱",将有助于美国理性地认识中国和保持稳定的中美关系。     

The Information Revolution and American Soft Power

The explosion of information in the last decade has had more of a decentralizing than a centralizing effect on society, says Joseph S. Nye Jr., Don K. Price Professor of Public Policy and Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. In the following article, Nye examines the possible effects of the information revolution on the domestic and foreign policies of governments, in particular the impact on soft power--the power of persuasion through ideas, cultures, and policies. Foreign policy will no longer be the sole province of governments as the centrality and functions of the sovereign state will change and political institutions will need to adapt to this brave new world. Nye concludes that the US has an edge in the current era of globalization but it should be careful not to negate the positive values of its soft power by acting unilaterally or arrogantly.     

美国与巴基斯坦关系的改善及其制约因素

冷战后,巴基斯坦在美国外交中的战略地位明显下降,特朗普上台后更是重印轻巴,推出了高度重视印度的南亚战略和印太战略,对巴基斯坦则实行极限施压政策以逼其加大反恐力度。美国的政策变化引起了巴基斯坦政府和民众的不满与抵制,两国间出现激烈的外交纷争,美巴关系陷入僵局。然而,巴基斯坦在美国的阿富汗战争和外交战略中处于不可忽视的地位,并且巴基斯坦是具有一定的对美反制能力的地区强国,特朗普政府在更为重要的阿富汗和谈问题上需要得到巴基斯坦的帮助。在权衡利弊后,特朗普政府调整对巴基斯坦政策,从以压促变调整为拉拢利用,美巴关系随之从高度紧张走向逐渐缓和。然而,美巴在短期利益和长远战略上都存在难以弥合的矛盾和分歧,双边关系发展缺乏坚实的合作基础和长远计划,两国在主要的共同利益——阿富汗政治和解方面存在目标和利益差异。此外,美印关系不断提升,使美巴双边关系的进一步发展困难重重。美国不愿放弃在巴基斯坦及邻近地区的战略利益,短期内会维持美巴合作,但从长远看,众多挑战和制约因素使两国关系存在较大的不确定性。美巴关系的走向不仅影响到南亚局势,还会冲击到我国的周边安全、中巴关系的发展以及"一带一路"倡议的推进,应当密切关注。     

Cold War brotherhood contested: KATUSAs,slicky boys,American G.I.s,and the Status of Forces Agreement in post-armistice South Korea, 1954–1966

ABSTRACT

As the largest contingent of Americans in postwar South Korea, the G.I. best represented the United States’ Cold War objectives. Their deployment was an emblem of hard power containment, but the G.I. also embodied soft power integration, and through both, G.I.s helped to promote Pax Americana. This article focuses on the militarized masculinity of these ambassadors of America and their people-to-people diplomacy in South Korea between 1954 and 1966. These American G.I.s constructed their militarized masculinity vis-à-vis the Korean male Other, their “lesser” counterparts – the hapless houseboy, the inferior partner soldier, and the menacing slicky boy. At the same time, this liberal imperialism did not go uncontested. Violent imaginaries of the American G.I. from the borderlands were used by Koreans to demand a new bilateral framework – the Status of Forces Agreement in 1966 – to replace the outmoded wartime extraterritorial jurisdiction wielded by the American military after cessation of hostilities on the Korean peninsula in 1953. The militarized masculinity practiced in everyday encounters, thus, became the basis of a critique of American liberal imperialism in one of the United States closest Cold War “brother” nations.     

A declining or stable image? An assessment of the United States' soft power in Africa

While the concept of soft power was coined by US scholar Joseph Nye in the early 1990s, the scholarly analysis of the US soft power in Africa remains scarce. This article seeks to engage with the question of soft power arising from US policies, political values and cultural exports in Africa. It employs both primary and secondary data, and focuses on the soft power impact of AGOA and PEPFAR on African perspectives on the US, as well as the impact of US popular culture, brands and educational exchange. The article found that, despite surveys pointing to increasing anti-US sentiments globally in the 21^st century, Washington still wields significant soft power in Africa.     

中欧对软实力概念的不同认知及对双边关系的影响

软实力概念自约瑟夫.奈提出以后,迅速进入了各国的对外政策话语体系。本文将分析中国、欧盟及其成员国对软实力及相关概念的认知,并加以比较。本文认为,中欧在软实力概念的使用中在软权力资源、软实力目标、软实力运用、软实力主体和软实力外交的地位五个方面存在着明显的认知差异,这些差异对双边关系带来了四方面的负面影响:价值观差异带来的政策分歧、软实力使用方式差异引发的政策冲突、软实力外交的地位差异产生的外交议程错位,以及软实力主体差异导致欧洲民间与中国政府之间的冲撞。从中欧关系的健康发展出发,本文提出了三个方面的尝试性建议,以缓和或消解这些差异认识对中欧关系的负面影响。     

Russia and the Kurds: A Soft-Power Tool for the Kremlin?

Russia has been the Kurds’ patron for more than two centuries, motivated primarily by the cynical desire to use them against adversaries in broader great-power games while casting itself as a champion of the Kurdish cause. Russia's longstanding and multifaceted relationship with the Kurds demonstrates that when it comes to geopolitics, the United States has more than brute force to contend with. The Russian state also utilizes soft power as an authoritarian state defines it: a tool of pragmatic leverage. While the Kurds are not a monolith, they are anxious about the trajectory of US politics and feel they cannot rely on anyone. The Russian state has opportunities to undermine American interests in places such as Syria and Iraq through its connections with Kurdish groups. This article reviews tsarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet policies toward the Kurds, including Kurdish communities in Russia. It concludes with a discussion about implications for the United States, given that Moscow will not let go of its Kurdish card, including in the context of the Ukraine invasion.     

David Marr's ‘Vietnamese anticolonialism’

Abstract

Because of its legendary resistance against the United States and its struggle for national salvation, Vietnam has entered into the consciousness of progressive mankind and has begun to attract the attention of foreign historians. In the United States, the war of aggression waged by the U.S. government has been costly in lives and property and has seriously weakened the country in all aspects, leading to the increasing opposition among the American people to the war. While protesting against the policy of the U.S. government of continuing and widening its aggression in Vietnam, for the purpose of defending America's honor and to fight for their democratic rights and economic livelihood, the American people from all walks of life have been building a friendly relationship with the Vietnamese people. Because of this reason, the American people would like to have a better understanding of the land and people of Vietnam, past and present. However, in the United States “the study of Vietnamese anti-colonial movements has been largely the preserve of the political scientist, the practicing journalist, and the intelligence specialist.” Since nearly all of these people have conducted their research according to strict political guidelines from the White House and the Pentagon, they have ignored the historical truth in an effort to justify present-day American neo-colonialism. Despite these limitations, Marr's Vietnamese Anticolonialism is one of the first historical studies published in the United States which makes a larger contribution to America's understanding of the Vietnamese struggle for freedom and independence, and thereby shows that the present U.S. war of aggression is doomed to failure.     

The war in Georgia and the Western response

This article considers Western, and most particularly American, policy towards Tbilisi in the Russo-Georgian war of August 2008. The article does not accept the view of Russian leaders that the United States actively promoted the Georgian attack on South Ossetia. It does, however, argue that Washington's alliance with Georgia was sufficiently close to make President Saakashvili believe he would receive American support in the event of war with Russia. The war, however, was not in America's interest since it threatened its position in the South Caucasus and provided Russia with an opportunity to re-emphasize its growing power in the world.