美国亚太贸易战略新趋势:基于对《美韩自由贸易协定》的研究视角

《美韩自由贸易协定》于2012年3月15日正式实施,有力地促进了美国在亚太经济事务中扮演更重要的角色,成为美国"重返亚太"战略的标志之一。《美韩自由贸易协定》生效后,美国一方面实现了与韩国互惠互利的初衷,另一方面也在一定程度上牵制了东亚一体化进程,实现了制衡中国的战略目的。文章主要论述了《美韩自由贸易协定》对美国的经济福利、地缘利益和"新贸易政策"的影响,并进一步分析了美国"重返亚太"战略背景下《美韩自由贸易协定》与美国的APEC政策、主导TPP发展与美国国内政治博弈之间的关系,勾勒出美国新亚太贸易战略的轮廓。在此基础上,提出中国在出口受阻和影响力受限的情况下,应在加快调整经济发展方式、推动多元平衡的区域合作和积极应对美国主导TPP的发展等方面进行研判和对策选择。     

体系、社会和国家:理解《美韩自由贸易协定》

2007年6月,美韩双方签署了《美韩自由贸易协定》。美韩之间为什么要签署该协定?该协定对两国国内分别产生了哪些影响?该协定为何至今没能获得美国国会的通过?针对上述问题,本文结合美国贸易政策理论,从体系、国家和社会三个层面对其进行了分析。《美韩自由贸易协定》的签署及其实施,在体系层面上将会为双方带来经济、政治和战略上的多重收益,而在社会层面上却产生了不同的反应。尽管由于国内经济困难和利益集团的掣制使得协定的通过还面临不小的阻力,但基于协定所蕴含的重要价值和两国政府对此认识的高度一致,协定获得通过只是时间上的问题。     

“新贸易政策”对《美韩自由贸易协定》的影响

美国与韩国2007年签署的自由贸易协定至今仍未交付美国国会表决,导致这一结局的关键原因是民主党人力图推行"新贸易政策"。民主党人在2006年国会中期选举中获胜,为推行其政策主张提供了契机。对《美韩自由贸易协定》而言,"新贸易政策"既包含着利益集团因素,又体现了民主党人更高的目标追求:即重新框定美韩经济关系,打造美国对外贸易政策新范式,为今后美国参加双边和多边贸易谈判树立新"典范"。     

美韩关系中的驻韩美军地位问题

驻韩美军是影响美韩同盟关系的关键因素之一,而作为规范美军法律地位的《驻韩美军地位协定》则是美韩双方争论的焦点问题。围绕军队地位协定谈判,美韩双方的交涉持续了十几年时间,最终,随着韩国在美韩同盟关系中地位的提升,美国同韩国达成妥协,签订了军队地位协定。军队地位协定的谈判过程,一方面反映出韩国在美韩同盟中地位的变化,同时显示美国同韩国签订军队地位协定存在争取韩国支持其越南战争政策的政治目的。冷战结束后,《驻韩美军地位协定》凸显出的不平等性,引起了韩国民众强烈的反美情绪,给关韩同盟关系带来重要影响。     

中美自由贸易协定的动因与可行性

中国推动中美自由贸易协定的动因主要在于促进两国经贸领域的合作,控制和减少中国对美国出口所受到的贸易保护主义的阻碍,加快构建中国版本的自由贸易协定网络。美国推动中美自由贸易协定的动因主要在于这一协定符合美国的经济、政治和战略利益。中美自由贸易协定将对亚太地区的国家产生重大影响,并有助于化解中美之间因美国推动跨太平洋伙伴关系协定而中国主张区域全面经济伙伴关系而产生的矛盾与冲突。中国推进中美自由贸易协定的突破口可以选择双边投资保护协定,而非通常的货物贸易及关税减让。     

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》背景下中日韩自由贸易区建设:影响与前景

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》的缔结为加速中日韩自由贸易协定谈判创造了条件.然而,日韩两国对区域经济合作走向的调整以及三国围绕"RCEP+"议题的博弈、中美战略竞争等因素对中日韩自由贸易协定的复杂影响依然存在,中方加速协定谈判面临挑战.在新冠肺炎疫情防控常态化背景下,中日韩自由贸易协定对三方管控供应链风险、加速经济复苏、打造地区最终消费市场、推动东亚区域经济一体化升级具有重要的战略意义.而协定的关键在于中国能否在全球主要经济体当中率先实现强劲复苏,促使日韩主要从经济收益视角审视协定的价值,管控相互竞争与制衡思维,搁置争议、加强合作.     

美国与东盟国家自由贸易协定计划的提出与实施

美国出于政治和经济需要提出了"发起东盟事业倡议"计划,其实质是美国准备与东盟国家签署一系列的自由贸易协定.美国与东盟关系中存在着显而易见的"中国因素".美国"发起东盟事业倡议"是要巩固美国在东盟的存在,抵消中国的影响.在东盟的对外经贸关系中,美国占据重要地位.美国希望借助"发起东盟事业倡议",与东盟国家签署一系列自由贸易协定,来进一步扩大与东盟经贸关系.新加坡是东盟国家和亚洲国家中第一个与美国签署自由贸易协定的国家,目前美国还正在与泰国和马来西亚进行自由贸易协定的谈判.本文的目的是通过这一情况的介绍使我们更加深刻理解中国与东盟建立自由贸易区的必要性和急迫性.     

中美国际地位变化与韩国的机遇、挑战和战略选择

以经济、军事实力、对主要国际制度的参与和国际影响力为指标,可窥见中美国际地位变化的趋势。作为美国的盟友和中国的战略合作伙伴,韩国在中美国际地位变化中既面临机遇又面临挑战。机遇体现为中国经济的高速发展可带动韩国经济发展;中韩关系改善利于谈判解决朝核问题;韩国可为中美牵线搭桥并借此提升国际地位。挑战包括朝鲜半岛的权力与威胁失衡导致朝核与导弹危机升级,对韩国威胁加剧;中韩伙伴关系和美韩同盟使韩国陷入两难境地;中国实力上升使韩国担忧来自中国的经济与地缘政治威胁。韩国的战略选择基于其面临的机遇和挑战,从在中美之间奉行平衡战略到通过部署萨德和签订韩日《军事情报保护协定》重新加强美韩同盟。     

《美国-新加坡自由贸易协定》及其影响

谈判过程历时两年半之久、今年1月1日正式生效的<美国-新加坡自由贸易协定>不仅是当代双边自由贸易协定的新代表,而且在海关程序、知识产权保护、政府采购、资金流动控制等诸多方面的规定都有所创新和突破,势必会对未来的同类协定产生影响.它的产生与中国有着密不可分的关系,而它的实施也同样会对中国、东盟、亚太地区乃至全球的未来贸易发展产生重要影响.     

韩国政治发展中的美国因素

二战后,在美国的扶植下,民主制度在韩国以宪法形式正式确立下来,此后,在制度层面和法律条文上,民主制成为唯一合理的政治体制。但是,由于国际因素的影响,尤其是美国的介入,韩国政治发展和民主转型经历了颇为艰难的过程。韩国政治变迁是国际政治国内化的一种反映。由于朝鲜半岛南北分裂,韩国必须长期仰赖美国的军事保护、经济援助和政治支持,这种战略需求,使美国成为影响韩国政治走向的关键因素。美国对韩国政治发展的影响以美韩政治关系为基础,美韩关系的基本内容和特点决定了美国对韩国政治发展影响的内容、方式和限度。     

美国对华战略规锁下的贸易冲突博弈路径选择

特朗普执政后,美国对华战略逐步由“接触”转向“规锁”,中美经贸关系也因此发展到了摩擦频现甚至是冲突对抗的新阶段。美国对华战略规锁本质上是要遏制中国在科技进步和国家实力等方面的崛起,以维护其霸权地位。贸易冲突作为美国对华战略规锁最直接的手段之一,在一定程度上反映了其国内利益集团与党派之间的斗争。特朗普政府为了获得国内政治支持,推出了严重扭曲的对华贸易政策。文章从美国对华战略规锁的视角,运用多重博弈论方法对中美贸易冲突进行了路径选择分析并认为,囚徒困境中“以牙还牙”策略下的博弈双方均实施损人损己的策略,无论采取“以牙还牙”、冷酷触发还是无限拖延,博弈双方的最优策略都是通过贸易谈判实现继续合作;双方只有通过有效谈判,逐步取消加征的贸易壁垒,才能达成协议并获得最大收益。基于博弈结果的情景分析与中美第一阶段经贸协议内容,文章为破解中美贸易冲突困境以及未来防范提供了战略参考和政策启示。     

制度距离、文化差异与中美贸易摩擦中的权力因素——基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究

中美贸易摩擦是体系压力和美国国内因素共同作用的结果。基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究,文章采用面板负二项模型对中美两国间的制度距离、文化差异和相对实力差距的缩小等结构性变量,以及美国国内政治等单元层次的中介变量、贸易和投资等渠道变量,对中美贸易摩擦的影响进行了实证考察。研究认为,中美间军事、经济和科技实力差距的缩小即相对实力分布的变化会显著强化美国作为守成大国对中国作为崛起大国发起贸易摩擦的可能性;中美两国间的政治、经济制度距离和文化差异或价值观的不同也会显著影响中美两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性,同时,与美国政治关系良好、在制度和文化上与其接近的国家并不必然意味着与美国贸易摩擦的减少;美国国内不同政治行为体、社会行为体的利益诉求、政策偏好,与贸易的交互效应一起,会进一步增加中美两国因实力差距的缩小、制度和文化(观念)差异等体系因素或结构性变量所引发的贸易摩擦发生的概率;经济因素依然是决定中美贸易摩擦的基础性因素,中美贸易失衡、中国对美直接投资的迅速增加以及中国对美国市场渗透率的提升、美国国内经济绩效的波动、美国国内收入不平等程度的加剧,与贸易的收入分配效应一起,也会显著提升两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性。     

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP):研究前沿与架构

"跨太平洋伙伴关系协议"(TPP)在美国的积极推动下发展迅速,似乎将成为亚太地区新的竞争性区域合作机制。TPP以成员国全面零关税、知识产权保护、劳工和环保等议题为特点,提出建立高质量和高标准的自由贸易区,已吸引了包括美国在内的亚太九国参加协议谈判。在TPP建立过程中,美国企图重获亚太经济主导权的意图明显;日本虽积极参与,但自身困难重重;东盟在巩固现有基础上,并不排斥新机制出现。当前,美国主导TPP势头正盛,但其发展态势并不明朗,TPP谈判仍将面临美国国内政治因素和技术问题的双重障碍以及日本能否顺利加入等问题;当前的国际政治与经济局势,使中国面临新的挑战与机遇,宜通过调整经济结构,扩大内需,完善和巩固现有区域合作战略以积极应对TPP的发展。未来,中国与美日韩以及东盟等双边和多边经贸关系受TPP的实质影响将成为新一轮研究重点。     

Anti-Americanism and Public Attitudes toward Transatlantic Trade

The recent debate about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has triggered widespread opposition to the trade agreement in Germany. It is not clear, however, what factors drive public attitudes toward transatlantic trade. This article explores the role of anti-Americanism in predicting attitudes toward TTIP among the German public. It argues that the impact of anti-Americanism depends on the extent to which political elites frame the TTIP proposal as a basic conflict between American and European values. Using data from two national representative surveys, it is found that attitudes toward America strongly predict support for the TTIP agreement. The results further demonstrate that the effect of national resentment is moderated by issue awareness, with citizens with a strong anti-American sentiment being significantly more likely to oppose the agreement if they follow the elite debate more closely. Taken together, the results suggest that national resentments are more important for the explanation of TTIP preferences than traditional factors such as partisanship, ideology and material concerns.     

Political Change in America and Implications for the US-Japan Alliance

This article examines the domestic political dynamics behind US president Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to trade and foreign policy, to understand better how long this strain of American economic nationalism might last and what it means for Japan’s national security strategy. The political base for Trump’s trade protectionism and apparent indifference to allies has roots stretching back into American history, but this movement has strengthened in recent years due to a combination of growing economic inequality in the United States, demographic changes, and the impact of fast-paced technology development and economic globalization. These political trends are likely to persist beyond Trump’s presidency, although some potential negative effects on Japan and the US-Japan alliance in the medium-to-longer term can be mitigated by Japan’s proactive foreign policy and other steps. The alliance still offers a great deal of value to both countries—now and into the future—but Japan should consider a slightly larger global leadership role in concert with others, even as the allies work to enhance their continued cooperation on shared interests.     

“China in South America: Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela”

The growing presence of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in South America highlights its domestic priorities. On the economic side, high levels of development, source of political stability and international recognition, exacerbate the need of importing natural resources and exporting manufactured products. Politically, the policy of national reunification, which is also an important provider of stability drawn from nationalism, demand strengthening relations with countries in areas attracted by Taiwan, isolating the island in the international arena. Beijing is actively working to increase its political leverage and shape the agenda of international politics giving South-South cooperation a strategic dimension well beyond mutual development. This fits South American objectives, namely the ones of Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, that aim at diversifying international partnerships and perceive China as an alternative to the traditional orientation towards Latin America, the US and Europe. Positioning itself as a stakeholder, China creates the basis for an alternative international order using persuasion. The Chinese soft power in South America may be a drop of water in a much broader strategy.     

Japan's New Economic Diplomacy: Changing Tactics or Strategy?

Japan's economic diplomacy has evolved significantly since the 1990s in response to the reconfiguration of regional and global power. This article places developments along a conceptual continuum and finds that, slowly but steadily, Japanese policies shift from an emphasis on commercial goals of economic diplomacy to include also a more outspoken element of power play. While tourism promotion may be considered a new part of economic diplomacy, long-time practices of trade and investment promotion, business advocacy, and development cooperation are revamped with a focus on the environmental and energy fields. The negotiation of trade agreements, which for long was highjacked by domestic politics, was given new impetus in 2010, while financial diplomacy—which seemed promising in the early 2000s—stalled. Finally, negative sanctioning is no longer a taboo, particularly in the relationship with North Korea. The appetite of the government and private sector to conform with Western countries remains limited, however, and the ambiguity between the old and the new suggests that we are witnessing a change in Japanese tactics rather than in strategy.     

Seeking Domestic Approval: Determinants of Ratification Duration in International Trade

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated rapidly since the early 1990s. The ratification of these agreements matters both economically by rendering commitments legally enforceable for outward‐oriented industries and politically by revealing the domestic‐ and international‐level factors which delay or accelerate the entry into force of a PTA. This research note investigates the institutional design and domestic political determinants of the ratification duration for 270 PTAs concluded in the post‐1990 period. The Weibull survival analysis yields two main results: First, neither domestic political constraints measured through veto players nor PTA depth affect ratification spells. Second, ratification processes become more protracted in the presence of stringent formal domestic ratification requirements as well as with a higher number of partner states. These findings suggest that trade negotiators factor in the shadow of ratification in the bargaining phase but still remain subject to formal ratification hurdles and PTA membership dynamics.     

Downsizing Hegemony: Alliance,Domestic Politics,and American Retrenchment in East Asia, 1969–2017

By investigating the domestic debate over the US troop reduction in Japan and South Korea for the past several decades, this article explores variation in the Asian allies’ reactions to American retrenchment. Instead of inferring regional responses solely from external security environments, this paper pays particular attention to domestic political contexts in which different political actors compete to frame the meanings and consequences of the US military presence, with implications for alliance dynamics in East Asia. I argue that along with the perceived levels of external threats, considerations of foreign policy autonomy and political legitimacy shape the ways in which the two Asian allies have responded to the US retrenchment.     

CAPITALISM,THE KOREA–U.S. FREE TRADE AGREEMENT,AND RESISTANCE

Free trade agreements (FTAs) have become an essential part of the corporate effort to establish a global infrastructure suitable to its contemporary accumulation dynamics. Because they establish and reinforce patterns of economic activity that are destructive of majority interests, they should be opposed. This article scrutinizes one agreement: the Korea–U.S. FTA. It examines the motivations that led to its negotiation, the content of the agreement, and the arguments U.S. government officials and institutions have made in support of its ratification. It concludes with a critical evaluation of the efforts of U.S. and Korean opponents of its ratification and a call for a new organizing strategy.