HCR-20 violence risk assessments as a guide for treating and managing violence risk in a forensic psychiatric setting

Abstract

Over the past decades there has been a vast development in the research into risk factors for violence and the development of risk assessment instruments. One instrument that has been given special attention is the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of this tool, i.e. how does this assessment scheme perform when utilized in clinical practice as a tool to guide intervention and management in order to alleviate risk of violent behaviour? The present study was a true prospective study into the utilization of the HCR-20 as a clinical routine. Data on forensic psychiatric patients (n = 81) from a forensic unit in Denmark are presented. As part of a clinical routine all patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing the structured professional judgement model, the HCR-20. Outcome measures were aggressive episodes during hospitalization and new convictions post discharge. The predictive validity of the HCR-20 was lower compared with previous findings. It is argued that this does not necessarily indicate poor predictive accuracy of the HCR-20. Rather, it may indicate that the HCR-20 is suitable for guiding risk management in order to prevent violent behaviour.     

Assessment of violence risk in youth for juvenile court: relevant factors for clinical judgment

BACKGROUND: Assessment of violence risk in youth for juvenile court needs to be improved. AIM: To determine which items of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) are recorded in pre-trial mental health evaluations and which of these items are associated with the clinical judgment of the risk of violent recidivism. METHOD: A total of one hundred forensic diagnostic juvenile court files were rated with regard to the presence or absence of the thirty SAVRY risk items: ten historical, six contextual and eight individual items, and six protective items. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to examine the relationship between SAVRY risk items and the clinical judgment of violence risk. RESULTS: Most SAVRY-items had been recorded in the files. However, five historical items and the contextual item 'rejection by peers' did not appear in 25-62% of the files. Especially SAVRY items like 'negative-attitudes' and 'psychopathic traits' were the most powerful predictors for clinical judgment of high violence risk. Unexpectedly, historical items played a minor role in clinical judgment. CONCLUSION: Prospective research is needed with the use of SAVRY-items to improve evidence based violence risk assessment in court ordered mental health evaluations of youngsters.     

The Effect of Framing Actuarial Risk Probabilities on Involuntary Civil Commitment Decisions

Despite a proliferation of actuarial risk assessment instruments, empirical research on the communication of violence risk is scant and there is virtually no research on the consumption of actuarial risk assessment. Using a 2 × 3 Latin Square factorial design, this experiment tested whether decision-makers are sensitive to varying levels of risk expressed probabilistically and whether the framing of actuarial risk probabilities is consequential for commitment decisions. Consistent with research on attribute framing, in which describing an attribute in terms of its complement leads to different conclusions, this experiment found that the way actuarial risk estimates are framed leads to disparate commitment decisions. For example, risk framed as 26% probability of violence generally led decision-makers to authorize commitment, whereas the same risk framed in the complement, a 74% probability of no violence, generally led decision-makers to release. This result was most pronounced for moderate risk levels. Implications for the risk communication format debate, forensic practice and research are discussed.     

An empirical investigation of written risk communication in forensic psychiatric evaluations

Abstract

There has been an increased interest in approaches for improving violence risk assessment, but less so how to communicate risk assessment results. We studied the written risk communication of 142 cases of forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden. The results suggested that risk for criminal recidivism was communicated in the vast majority of the cases (122 out of 142), but that risk was primarily communicated when the risk was perceived to be high. A six-item protocol to assess the content of the risk communication suggested that the communication was well elaborated in 21/122 of the cases, moderately elaborated in 53/122, poorly or very poorly elaborated in 43/122, and non-elaborated in 5/122 of the cases. Level of elaboration was only vaguely related to sociodemographic characteristics pertaining to the assessed (sex, age, citizenship) and the type of crime committed, but highly correlated to clinical diagnoses (DSM-IV) as well as contextual factors of the evaluation (which professional group and which clinic the assessment was performed).     

Examining the Science and Practice of Violence Risk Assessment with Female Adolescents

While the field of violence risk assessment among adult males has progressed rapidly, several questions remain with respect to the application of forensic risk assessment tools within other populations. In this article, we consider the empirical evidence for the assessment, prediction, and management of violence in adolescent girls. We discuss limitations of generalizing violence risk assessment findings from other populations to adolescent girls and point out areas where there is little or no empirical foundation. Critical issues that must be addressed in research prior to the adoption or rejection of such instruments are delineated. Finally, we provide practice guidelines for clinicians currently involved with adolescent females within risk assessment contexts.     

Violence risk profile of medium- and high-security NGRI offenders in Belgium

Under Belgian law, offenders not guilty by reason of insanity (NGRI) are committed by the courts to forensic mental health treatment. The use of violence risk assessment tools has become routine in these settings. However, there are no national statistics regarding violence risk assessment in the Belgian forensic population. A study was undertaken to collect risk assessment data (PCL-R, VRAG, HCR-20) on a large cohort of forensic patients committed to Medium Security units in the Flanders region and in High-Security units in the Walloon region. Flemish patients were expected to present a lower risk compared with their Walloon counterparts. Instead, data yielded by a structured risk assessment method demonstrate the opposite. Moreover, the majority of patients in Flemish facilities had committed violent offenses and were institutionalized for shorter periods whereas the majority of Walloon patients had committed sexual offenses and were institutionalized for markedly longer periods.     

A FORENSIC PSYCHOLOGY MODEL OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHILD CUSTODY RELOCATION LAW

Relocation in child custody presents a psycho-legal dilemma of trying to preserve stability in the child's residential family unit while maintaining continuity in the role of the nonresidential parent. Courts have shown a strong preference to permiting the child to move away with the residential parent unless there is a showing of potential harm to the child. The forensic violence risk assessment literature provides an analogous conceptual framework for understanding the prediction of harm. Instead of predicting violence, the evaluator is predicting the effect of environmental circumstances on the child's adjustment. A forensic psychology model of risk assessment is adapted to the relocation problem. The elements of the model are an expected base rate of short-term emotional distress due to relocation, risk and modulating factors, and how to handle the potential consequences of prediction errors. A hierarchical predictive process, derived hypotheses, and practical considerations in relocation are discussed.     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

ABSTRACT

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.     

Examining the Role of Static and Dynamic Risk Factors in the Prediction of Inpatient Violence: Variable- and Person-Focused Analyses

Although the construct of psychopathy is related to community violence and recidivism in various populations, empirical evidence suggests that its association with institutional aggression is weak at best. The current study examined, via both variable-level and group-level analyses, the relationship between standard violence risk instruments, which included a measure of psychopathy, and institutional violence. Additionally, the incremental validity of dynamic risk factors also was examined. The results suggest that PCL-R was only weakly related to institutional aggression and only then when the behavioral (Factor 2) aspects of the construct were examined. The clinical and risk management scales on the HCR-20, impulsivity, anger, and psychiatric symptoms all were useful in identifying patients at risk for exhibiting institutional aggression. These data suggest that factors other than psychopathy, including dynamic risk factors, may be most useful in identifying forensic patients at higher risk for exhibiting aggression.     

Sexual predator civil commitment: a comparison of selected and released offenders

This study compared two groups of sex offenders who were considered for civil commitment under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act: Two hundred twenty-nine sex offenders who were recommended by forensic evaluators to be civilly committed and 221 sex offenders who were recommended for release. It was hypothesized that selected offenders would be more likely to display risk factors for sex offense recidivism than those who did not meet criteria. Data analyses revealed that selected offenders, as a group, scored significantly higher on actuarial risk assessment instruments. There were also significant differences between the groups on other risk factors that have been empirically correlated with sexual recidivism. Selected offenders had higher frequencies of paraphilia diagnoses and antisocial personality. These findings supported the hypotheses and suggested that evaluators are correctly selecting for civil commitment those sex offenders who have a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and who are at higher risk for reoffense.     

Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients

The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.     

Mental disorder in violent women in secure settings: Potential relevance to risk for future violence

The relevance to women of common violence risk factors identified in men has in many instances yet to be established. Consequently, there is a reluctance to accept without question the application to women of practices relating to violence risk assessment and management developed from research into men. This study examines mental disorder in women who are violent in order comment on its relevance to the practice of violence risk assessment and management. A sample of 95 violent women in high secure prison and forensic psychiatric care were assessed. Structured assessments of Axis I and II mental disorders and psychopathy were undertaken on all women and conviction histories were recorded. Very high levels of psychiatric morbidity were noted and patterns in comorbidity were detected. Among Axis I conditions, psychotic disorders and disorders of mood co-occurred at a very high rate. Among the Axis II conditions, dimensional ratings of borderline personality disorder (PD) correlated with dimensional ratings of avoidant, dependent and paranoid PDs while ratings of antisocial PD correlated with those of narcissistic, histrionic and obsessive–compulsive PDs. Women who had been incarcerated for a major violent offence were four times more likely to have a diagnosis of borderline PD than women whose index offence was one of minor violence. A number of the findings reported are in contrast to those reported in similar studies of men. Findings suggest that practitioners are right to question the application to women of knowledge derived from research into men. The practice of violence risk assessment and management with women should emphasise the development of individual risk formulations and responding to psychiatric comorbidity should be the rule rather than the exception with this population.     

Behind closed doors: the effect of pretrial publicity on jury deliberations

Abstract

Effective treatment of aggressive behaviour and accurate release decision making are necessary components of adequate clinical practice in forensic psychiatric units. Unfortunately, methods to identify treatment targets and ameliorate aggressive behaviour have developed at a slower pace than risk assessment technologies. Recent progress on the identification of offence paralleling or functionally equivalent behaviour offers a framework for individually tailored treatment and idiographic release decision making, although empirical scrutiny of this approach is inadequate. This paper describes an examination of the relationship between aggressive behaviour prior to admission with aggression during inpatient psychiatric treatment, and reconviction for violent offending following discharge. Results showed a relationship between pre- and post-admission aggression but no relationship between aggression during inpatient psychiatric treatment with either pre-admission aggressive behaviour or violent recidivism. These findings indicate the importance of state psychological variables, specifically those states affected by symptoms of psychiatric illness, as well as environmental activators and inhibitors of violence that operate within the hospital. These require inclusion in an adequate functional analysis of aggressive behaviour for forensic psychiatric patients.     

The Alabama Structured Assessment of Treatment Completion for insanity acquittes (The AlaSATcom)

The most complex and risky decisions made by forensic psychiatrists revolve around the decision to release insanity acquittes from custody. This decision has several levels of risk, including the potential liability to the psychiatrist as well as the possible risk to the community. A single bad outcome, even if not predictable, can have disastrous results, not only for victims, but also for the releasing facility. Since predicting violence has so many problems, we chose to look at completeness of treatment instead, so we could say to the Court, "We don't know about violence, but we do know that he has vastly improved." Since many NGRI (Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity) patients spend years in the hospital, they are also expensive. They have rights, as well; therefore the complex assessment must be done as quickly and as accurately as possible. We have developed a spread sheet program to compare these multiple factors, and have compared it against the clinical decisions we have made in more than 100 discharges. We believe this gives a framework for decision-making that will increase the consistency of this process.     

Risk factors for stalking violence,persistence, and recurrence

This study used a retrospective design to investigate risk factors associated with violence during a stalking episode, persistence (increased duration of stalking) and recurrence (multiple subsequent separate stalking episodes) in 157 people (91% male, mean age 35 years) with an established history of stalking behaviour. Results showed that diverse risk factors are associated with different types of stalking outcomes. Consistent with previous research, stalking violence was more likely to occur when the victim was an ex-intimate, when explicit threats had been made and where there had been previous property damage (AUC = .74). Personality disorder, older age, criminal versatility, a prior acquaintanceship and erotomanic delusions (AUC = .75) predicted stalking recurrence. Finally, previous acquaintanceship, the presence of delusional beliefs and the absence of a history of physical or sexual violence were associated with stalking persistence. These results clearly show that effective assessment and management of stalking requires consideration of different stalking outcomes and the diversity of associated risk factors.     

Assessing reliability, validity, and clinical utility of the BEST-Index in measuring living skills among forensic inpatients

The assessment of behavioral change as a result of inpatient treatment in forensic psychiatry is an important precondition for violence risk prediction in forensic psychiatry. In relation to a multitude of diagnostically based risk assessment instruments, there is a shortage of appropriate instruments with which to carry out valid and reliable therapeutic assessments that are behaviorally based and therefore appropriate for use within varied psychiatric contexts. There is also a need for instruments which will offer assessors the opportunity to examine possible relationships between criteria of social risk and criteria of more general aspects of social functioning. Tapping the issues pointed out above, the authors present an overview of a normatively based social profiling instrument (the BEST-Index), and discuss evidence for its validity, reliability, and aspects of clinical utility.     

The Empirical Limits of Forensic Mental Health Assessment

This article introduces a special issue of Law and Human Behavior, including five articles describing the limits of forensic mental health assessments of (a) risk of violence in female adolescents, (b) sexually violent predators, (c) dangerousness in capital murder cases, (d) child sexual abuse, and (e) PTSD litigants. Knowing the limits of forensic mental health assessment methods is essential in order to recognize their strengths, increase the credibility of forensic mental health assessment, and drive research that will enhance the value of assessments for the courts.     

Implementing violence and incident reporting measures on a forensic mental health unit

The assessment of risk and prediction of violence in mental health units can play a large role in creating a safer environment for both the staff and the patients. Nurses in forensic units are in a unique position in regards to assessment of violence as they spend a great deal of time with the patients. Nurses on a forensic mental health unit scored the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC) twice daily for 12 weeks for all patients either resident on or admitted to the unit (N?=?46). The Staff Observation Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R) was used to report any adverse incidents (N?=?51). Data were examined at the both the item and scale level. Main results showed the area under the curve values of the BVC score, slide rule, and the sum of BVC and slide rule score in turn demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for inpatient aggression (0.68–0.73). Through logistic regression analyses the BVC uniquely predicted inpatient aggression but adding the slide rule did not improve prediction. Predictive accuracy was found across three diagnostic groups – dementia, psychosis and substance use disorders. These results provide further support on the predictive accuracy of the BVC for short-term violence in forensic mental health settings.     

Integrating DSM-IV Factors to Predict Violence in High-Risk Psychiatric Patients

Abstract:  This study incorporated Axis-II and Axis-IV factors in DSM-IV to test the relationship between predicted risk for violence assessed in the psychiatric emergency room and actual violence during hospitalization. Psychiatric nurses lack an objective instrument to use during the acute psychiatric assessment. The retrospective study comprised consecutive psychiatric admissions ( n  = 161) in one tertiary veterans' hospital. Statistical testing for the predictive power of risk factors, relationships between variables, and violent events included nonparametric tests, factor analysis, and logistic regression. Of the 32 patients who committed violence during hospitalization, 12 had committed violence in the psychiatric emergency room. Statistical significance was shown for violent incidents and dementia, court-ordered admission, mood disorder, and for three or more risk factors. The 13-item Risk of Violence Assessment (ROVA) scale suggests validity and sensitivity for rating DSM-IV factors and psychosocial stressors to predict risk for violence during hospitalization. Replication studies are recommended to strengthen validity of the ROVA scale.