中东欧地区大国博弈新态势--兼论中国-中东欧国家合作面临的挑战与机遇

在地缘安全、能源、价值观等方面,美国、以德国为主要代表的欧盟国家以及俄罗斯在中东欧地区有着广泛而重要的利益。三者的互动关系呈现美俄博弈主导中东欧安全形势,美德(欧)联合制俄但共识有限,美德(欧)对中国在中东欧的经济介入保持警惕但难以形成合力三个特征。随着中美竞争的持续,美德(欧)与以波兰、匈牙利为代表的中东欧国家在价值观上的分歧扩大,美德(欧)对俄罗斯的地缘政治攻势升级,中东欧地区的大国力量格局发生了新的变化。美国对中国的战略围堵压力持续加大,以德国为代表的欧盟国家对中东欧国家的控制力不断降低,俄罗斯反“守”为“攻”回应西方威胁,而德国新政府和新一届欧盟委员会对华政策更加突出价值观因素,导致中国—中东欧国家合作面临的地缘政治压力总体上有增无减。但是,美欧内部也并非铁板一块,以德国为代表的欧盟国家在中东欧控制力的弱化以及美欧与波兰、匈牙利等国关系的恶化,也为持续推进中国—中东欧国家合作带来了潜在机遇。以上因素作为影响中东欧国家对华政策的重要变量,需要密切关注。     

Introduction

Central Eastern Europe (further CEE) has been thoroughly reconstructed during nearly a quarter of century since the fall of the Berlin wall and the end of the cold war. The CEE countries turned to the West for economic and technological advancement, for political and administrative models as well as for protection. The authors coming from eight different countries look at the place and role of the former member states of the Warsaw Pact in the new European and international constellation. This concept of CEE includes most pro-western states of the former ‘Eastern block’: the four countries of Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) and the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia). There were many tumultuous political developments in and around the region within the last decade, and especially during the last five years when the financial crisis started to take its toll. While the Atlantic link of Central and Eastern Europe is still strong, many commentators have pointed out its wearing strategic meaning. The balance between the focus on the USA and the EU has shifted in favour of Europe. However, this shift has rather been an incomplete one due to the region's own political and economic problems. The aim of this special issue is to analyse the new constellation by looking at the CEE countries themselves, at their ability to react and adapt, produce sound political strategies and act on as national actors: through bilateral ties, regional co-operation, NATO and the EU. Also, the main external actors - the USA, Russia and Germany - are looked at as they directly influence the way how the CEE countries shape their policies.     

China–CEE Trade,Investment and Politics

Abstract

The growing and intensifying cooperation between China and 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has generated extensive criticism by and concerns among EU institutions and Western European member states of the Union. According to diplomatic presumptions, China aims to gain political leverage in exchange for economic benefits in the EU through its CEE members. The following article attempts to evaluate the correlation between the quality of bilateral political relations and economic relations of China and CEE countries in order to draw conclusions on the importance or, on the contrary, the irrelevance of Chinese activity in the region.     

POST‐ACCESSION POLITICIZATION OF NATIONAL EU POLICY COORDINATION: THE CASE OF SLOVENIA

This article focuses on how domestic and EU‐level political factors affect the functional aspect of the national coordination of EU affairs. Due to the idiosyncrasies of the post‐communist countries which have joined the EU since 2004, an analysis of dynamic changes in the national systems of coordination needs to focus on three factors: (a) functional pressures from the EU; (b) the consolidation of the national party system; and (c) existing traditions of politico‐administrative relations. The international economic and financial crisis is considered as a fourth factor that has affected the first three factors through the increase in the EU's 'informal intergovernmentalism', which adds to the politicization of EU matters. The Slovenian case points to an increased, though selective, politicization of EU business due to both national‐ and EU‐level factors.     

国际金融危机背景下对中东欧经济转轨问题的再思考

转轨20年来,中东欧国家已经建立了市场经济体制,经济转轨的任务已经完成。围绕中东欧经济转轨方式的争论,如休克疗法与渐进主义等,在转轨20年后虽然已无现实意义,但仍具有永恒的学术意义。全球化与欧洲化为中东欧国家的赶超创造了有益的条件,但全球经济的波动也给中东欧国家带来了潜在的风险。国际金融危机并不会导致中东欧国家抛弃现有的增长模式,但并不排除中东欧国家对增长模式进行微调。国际金融危机的冲击对"改革疲乏症"敲响了警钟,为中东欧国家进一步加快改革提供了契机。     

Coming out of the shadow? Studies of local governments in Central and Eastern Europe in European academic research

This article is an analysis of the changing role of research on local governments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) within mainstream European studies. It refers to dependency theory (Wallerstein, Prebish) as applied to scientific research. It classifies CEE as being in the semi-periphery of academic research. The empirical analysis consists of two parts: (1) qualitative review of the most important of the comparative studies of European local governments. It includes a discussion on the role of local governments and researchers from CEE in these studies; (2) quantitative based on an analysis of articles published in international journals and citations for those articles in Scopus. The analysis covers 14 countries (all new member states who joined the EU from 2004 onwards, plus the Balkan countries: Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia).     

Continuity and change in Russia's policy toward Central and Eastern Europe

The accession of the CEE states to NATO and the European Union has put an end to the geopolitical ambiguity and implicit insecurity in the region between Russia and the so-called ‘Old Europe’. Instead of being an area of great powers' rivalry, elements of ‘buffer belts’ lacking meaningful strategic options, objects of raw Nazi-Soviet deals, or zones under Russian occupation and domination, the three Baltic States and the Visegrad group countries became full-fledged members of the European Union and were given NATO's security guarantees. By the middle of the 2000s, one would conclude that traditional geopolitics had ended in this region.However, the changes in the strategic situation in CEE have not changed the deep rooted moving forces and long-term strategic goals of the Russian policy toward the region. Moscow seeks to have the position, as its official rhetoric says, of an ‘influential centre of a multipolar world’ that would be nearly equal to the USA, China, or the EU. With this in view Moscow seeks for the establishment of its domination over the new independent states of the former USSR and for the formation of a sphere of influence for itself in Central Eastern Europe. If it achieves these goals, then Europe may return once again to traditional geopolitics fraught with great power rivalries and permanent instabilities radiating far beyond CEE borders.Yet a few questions remain. Has Russia come to the conclusion that attempting to restore its privileged position of influence in Central-Eastern Europe is wrong? Has Russia enough power to threaten the CEE countries? How credible are NATO's security guarantees? How may Russian behavior in CEE affect a wider European geopolitical context? These questions are appropriate in the light of Russia's ‘resurgence’ as a revanchist power and because Russia is, and most probably will remain in the next five to ten years, a weighty economic and strategic factor in areas along the Western borders of the former USSR.     

Turkey's foreign policy options: Europe,the USA or Central Asia?

Accession to the European Union (EU) constitutes one of Turkey's primary foreign policy objectives. However, to establish whether the country would benefit from becoming part of an integrated Europe, its foreign policy alternatives to EU membership must also be examined. The first part of this article analyses Turkey's changing relations with Europe. Against this backdrop, the article then moves to assess Turkey's partnership with the USA and the potential of maintaining a close relationship independent from Europe. The role of Russia, Turkey's old neighbours and relations with the Turkic states, as well as the potential for attaining a leading role among them, are also considered. The argument is that Turkey may exploit its geostrategic position to pursue its core foreign policy interests and even assume an important regional role. However, Ankara ought to concentrate on what has long been its priority – full Turkish membership of the EU.     

Subnational Collective Action: The Varied Patterns of Mobilisation of Local Government Associations

This article assesses differences in the way local government associations organise to influence EU legislation in different countries. EU policy outcomes have an increasing financial and administrative impact on local government. This has been increasingly recognised by both EU institutions and many national governments, and recent reforms have sought to ensure greater involvement of local authorities in the preparation of EU proposals and domestic pre-negotiations, with an emphasis on the aggregation of local government interests via European and national local government associations. Research suggests that representative organisations need to be well resourced to be able to mobilise at both European and national level to influence EU proposals. This article empirically assesses these claims by examining attempts by local government associations in England, Denmark and Ireland to influence EU environmental directives. The findings suggest that financial, staffing, and informational resources, as well as structural issues, are important factors influencing how local government representative bodies respond to EU legislative proposals.     

Stability First,Development Second,Democracy Third: The European Union's Policy towards the Post-Conflict Western Balkans, 1991–2010

This article assesses total EU financial flows towards the Western Balkans between 1991 and 2010. It shows that, in the short term, the majority of support has been allocated to humanitarian assistance and socio-economic development. Although the EU has declared its interest in democracy promotion, democracy assistance ranks only third on the list of its financial expenditures in the Western Balkans. Therefore, although EU financial aid is consistent with official EU programmes, it is inadequate in the post-conflict context of the EU candidate and potential candidate countries that require support for democratisation.     

EUROPEANIZATION IN MANAGING EU AFFAIRS: BETWEEN DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE,A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ESTONIA,HUNGARY AND SLOVENIA

Scholarly research into Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia has shown that the idiosyncrasies of the new EU countries (especially with respect to institutionalizing and centralizing the co‐ordination of core executives in managing EU affairs at home) persist. They are complemented by trends toward convergence (such as growing co‐ordination efforts and a common tendency: that of the prime minister to be the centre of co‐ordination). In this article external Europeanization pressures, national administrative traditions (the legacies of both pre‐communist and communist systems), and the patterns of party competition that cause variations in politico‐administrative relations, are tested as possible explanatory variables of differences seen in the three countries when managing EU affairs. While national administrative traditions play similar roles to those seen in old(er) member states by filtering the EU‘s impacts, the effect of patterns of party competition on politico‐administrative relations when managing EU affairs has been filtered by the accession states’ national priorities of integrating with the EU.     

Perhaps this time it's different: ideas and interests in shaping international responses to financial crises

The experience of the recent two decades of financial crises shows that donor countries and international financial institutions (IFIs) can respond to a crisis in a peripheral open economy by either of two crisis management strategies: either they can impose harsh conditionality to fix the domestic economy and prevent future moral hazard problems, or they can provide last-resort credit to restore market confidence. In some cases, the crisis management strategy changes as the crisis evolves. What are the factors that determine the choice of key donor countries and IFIs? This article traces the processes by which the USA and the International Monetary Fund designed the crisis management strategy in respect to the Asian crisis, and how Germany and the European Central Bank designed the response to the eurozone crisis, in order to understand how ideas regarding the causes and solutions of a financial crisis interact with the interests of key donor countries. The article argues that in both cases ideas and interests are mutually constituted, but in each case the mechanism that linked ideas and interests was different: whereas in the Asian case US interests led to policy innovation and experimentation and to a change in the crisis management strategy, in the European case ideas played a greater role in shaping German interests. The article explains this difference on the basis of the lessons learned by IFIs from the Asian crisis, which were then implemented in the eurozone case.     

China in Africa: challenging US global hegemony

In the first decade of the 21st century China has been able to enter political, military and commercial deals with countries of the asean community, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, and the countries and observers in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (sco). In November 2006 China sealed this circle with a strategic partnership with Africa at a major feast of leaders celebrating the friendship and co-operation between the two. The emergence of China as a force in Africa complicated the tussle between the EU and the USA over the ‘who controls Africa’. The new relations between Africa and China could be described in the words of Gramsci, as, ‘the old is dying yet the new is yet to be born’. Chinese relations with Africa combine elements of the old (extraction of raw materials), yet the experience of transformation in China ensures that there are many positive and negative lessons to be learnt. What is new is the prospect for the consolidation of African independence and the challenge to the hegemony of the dollar and US imperialism. I argue in this paper that, in the short term, one of China's most important roles will be to break the disarticulation between the financial and productive sectors of the economy and to stem the outflow of capital from Africa. In the long run the experience of linking new ideas of science and technology to a home grown path of reconstruction can be an important lesson for Africa. State-to-state relations are usually opportunistic and it is for this reason that transnational civil society linkages between the Chinese and African people will be more important than relations between leaders.     

Czech and Slovak Relations with China: Contenders for China's Favour

This study examines the prospects for new European Union (EU) member countries in pursuing their foreign policy objectives in relations with China. Both the Czech Republic and Slovakia cherished an idea of making China an alternative economic partner. However, after 1989, China perceived these states as minor, almost unimportant partners, regardless of their efforts. Their profile was raised by EU accession but there was little change in their strength in terms of bilateral relations with China. The article investigates the failures and partial successes of the Czech and Slovak relationships with China, comparing their different approaches to the balance between focusing on political and human rights issues and the pursuit of economic and business interests.     

Transnational spaces in national places: early activists in Polish–West German relations

This article investigates a legacy of transnational activism in Polish–West German relations during the 1950s and 1960s, connected to the borderlands/expellee background of several of the early activists who initiated the relations. At a time when the Polish and West German states maintained no official diplomatic relations with each other, the importance of non-state initiatives and dialogue breaking with the antagonistic nationalism of the two world wars grew disproportionately. These individuals' expellee background, bilingualism, cross-border networks and loosened national identities contributed to their effectiveness in Polish–German relations. Taking exception to the popular conceptions of expellees as necessarily identical with the negative or anti-Polish opinions commonly associated with the expellee organizations, the article also focuses specifically on how certain expellees and former borderlands inhabitants attempted to renegotiate their postwar roles, political stances and even identities by associating themselves with Polish–German relations. They challenged the dualistic and polarizing nature of media discussions about German expellees in politics. In addition, the article and these individuals pose a challenge to international relations/conflict resolution research to look to cross-border communities as key elements in postwar/post-genocide dialogues.     

Regional Disparities in Central and Eastern European Countries: Trends,Drivers and Prospects

Growth in Central and East European countries (CEE) is territorially unbalanced, more so than in most other parts of the EU. The benefits of transformation in these countries have been unequally distributed among particular social groups and territories—with the emergence of highly educated and internationally successful professionals and entrepreneurs located mainly in metropolitan areas on the one hand, and structural unemployment, persistent poverty and social exclusion in peripheral regions on the other. These regional imbalances are characterised by a process of metropolisation that has privileged a handful of dynamic urban centres while exacerbating the structural problems of old industrial regions, vast rural areas and regions located on borders, and especially the EU's eastern borders. Different as they are in social, cultural and geographical terms, these declining or stagnating regions share general problems of economic peripherality and many negative effects of structural change, such as rural depopulation, ‘brain drain’, disinvestment and, frequently, below-average levels of socio-economic well-being. This polarised economic and territorial development within CEE poses challenges not only for the respective countries, but also for European cohesion.     

中东欧的民粹主义基础及其影响——兼论中国与中东欧国家关系

中东欧民粹政党有大量社会底层支持者,农民是最有代表性的民粹主义基础。从历史制度主义的视角看,以农民为代表的中东欧民粹支持者与历史上保守势力的支持基础有类似的逻辑。在农业仍为关键产业的中东欧国家,当传统经济受到转型后突如其来的外部经济影响时,既有经济结构和生产关系受到严峻挑战,在本土保守势力的推动下,竞争力不足的中东欧国家呼吁保护传统经济,反对以西欧为代表的新自由主义的价值腐化、以威权整肃国内腐败、强调历史上的民族荣光、复兴宗教及家庭伦理等。这一思潮被民粹政党用以获取政治权力。在外部经济压力下,农民、城市底层民众、经济民族主义者、保守的政治精英、大文化中心论者共同构成支持民粹主义的基础,民粹政党的兴起是精英和大众共同推动的结果。中东欧民粹政党自该地区转型后就出现在政治舞台,其影响深度和广度是欧洲其他地区所不及的。有鉴于此,探索一条以民粹主义基础为导向的策略路径,整合政府、企业和民间机构三类实践主体,有助于强化中国在中东欧的影响力。积极推进民粹政党或执政党的对华合作,是中国强化和拓展中东欧地区利益的重要方向。     

Emerging powers at the UN: ducking for cover?

The economic rise of China, India, South Africa, and Brazil has turned these countries into important providers of development assistance. While they seem increasingly comfortable in their bilateral relations with other developing countries, they are struggling to adapt their position within global institutions such as the United Nations. Do they turn their increased weight into a greater influence at the UN, and if not, why not? This article analyses financial contributions and political positioning at the UN in the area of development. Despite small changes, the four countries mostly insist on keeping their traditional status as recipients and ‘ordinary’ developing countries. This reservation can be explained in two ways: first, a more explicit leadership creates political and material costs that outweigh the potential benefits. Second, their shared experiences as developing countries make it hard to break ranks at the UN.     

EU–Russian Relations and Turkey's Role as an Energy Corridor

This article analyses the impact of EU–Russian relations on Turkey's role as a corridor for the transit of energy supplies to Europe. While the European Union (EU) has inherent leverage in its collective purchase of most Russian gas exports, market power has shifted in Russia's favour. Russian efforts to build new pipelines and widen downstream access have stimulated EU interest in diversifying energy imports and transit routes. In this sense, the EU has recognised Turkey's potential value as a secure and independent route for importing non-Russian energy supplies, which may in turn have an impact on Turkey's EU accession process.