The Prediction of Young Homicide and Violent Offenders

Aim was to investigate a range of potentially modifiable risk factors for boys in late childhood for later violence and homicide convictions. Boys from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (N = 1,517) were measured through self-reports and official records in late childhood (ages 11–13) on a large number of potentially modifiable risk factors, and were followed up in juvenile and adult criminal records in terms of violence and homicide. Predictors of conviction for homicide largely overlapped with predictors of conviction for violence. Twenty three out of 28 possible risk factors significantly predicted later violence convictions. Regression analysis identified four significant modifiable risk factors in late childhood for any violent offenders: physical abuse, parental stress, bad friends and low school motivation. The higher the number of early risk factors, the higher the probability of later conviction for violent offenses including homicide. The discussion focus on single-, and multi-modal interventions in late childhood to reduce later violence and possibly homicide.     

When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

Objectives

This study uses UCR and NCVS crime data to assess which data source appears to be more valid for analyses of long-term trends in crime. The relationships between UCR and NCVS trends in violence and six factors from prior research are estimated to illustrate the impact of data choice on findings about potential sources of changes in crime over time.

Methods

Crime-specific data from the UCR and NCVS for the period 1973–2012 are compared to each other using a variety of correlational techniques to assess correspondence in the trends, and to UCR homicide data which have been shown to be externally valid in comparison with other mortality records. Log-level trend correlations are used to describe the associations between trends in violence, homicide and the potential explanatory factors.

Results

Although long-term trends in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in the UCR and NCVS are similar, this is not the case for rape, aggravated assault, or a summary measure of serious violence. NCVS trends in serious violence are more highly correlated with homicide data than are UCR trends suggesting that the NCVS is a more valid indicator of long-term trends in violence for crimes other than robbery. This is largely due to differences during the early part of the time series for aggravated assault and rape when the UCR data exhibited consistent increases in the rates in contrast to general declines in the NCVS. Choice of data does affect conclusions about the relationships between hypothesized explanatory factors and serious violence. Most notably, the reported association between trends in levels of gasoline lead exposure and serious violence is likely to be an artifact associated with the reliance on UCR data, as it is not found when NCVS or homicide trend data are used.

Conclusions

The weight of the evidence suggests that NCVS data represent more valid indicators of the trends in rape, aggravated assault and serious violence from 1973 to the mid-1980s. Studies of national trends in serious violence that include the 1973 to mid-1980s period should rely on NCVS and homicide data for analyses of the covariates of violent crime trends.

     

Differentiating sexual violence: A comparison of sexual homicide and rape

Abstract

The present study sought to identify consistent patterns in the actions of sexually violent offenders to determine whether sexual homicide and rape reflect different behavioral emphasis of a single thematic model of sexual assault. Crime scene behaviors of 74 (37 sexual homicides and 37 rapes) solved cases of sexual assaults were compared, and results of a multi-dimensional analysis revealed three thematic styles of interacting with the victim during a sexual assault (Exploit, Control, and Violent). Further analysis indicated that offender–victim interactions in sexual homicide and rape are predominantly distinguished by the degree of violence, such that behaviors associated with each type of offense were found to occur in two discrete areas along a single continuum. Findings are discussed in terms of producing a general framework for understanding sexual violent interactions.     

National study comparing the characteristics of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia who committed homicide vs. those who died by suicide

Associations between serious mental disorder and violence are well-documented, but there is little epidemiological evidence linking these disorders and homicide risk. The reported study compares socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of people diagnosed with schizophrenia who committed homicide vs. those who died by suicide. The study is a national case series of male patients in England & Wales diagnosed with schizophrenia and convicted of homicide during 1997–2012 (n = 168), and a randomly selected comparison group of male patients with schizophrenia who died by suicide and who were matched to the homicide case series by age (n = 777). There are different patterns of behaviour in people with schizophrenia preceding homicide and suicide. Homicide perpetrators have frequently disengaged with services whilst patients who die by suicide are often in recent contact. This is important knowledge for clinical services as it indicates a different preventive emphasis despite the existence of other shared characteristics.     

The Strategic Prevention of Gun Violence Among Gang‐Involved Offenders

Problem‐oriented policing has been suggested as a promising way to understand and prevent complex gang violence problems. A number of jurisdictions have been experimenting with new problem‐oriented frameworks to understand and respond to gun violence among gang‐involved offenders. These interventions are based on the “pulling levers” deterrence strategy that focuses criminal justice and social service attention on a small number of chronically offending gang members responsible for the bulk of urban gun violence problems. As part of the US Department of Justice‐sponsored Project Safe Neighborhoods initiative, an interagency task force implemented a pulling levers strategy to prevent gang‐related gun violence in Lowell, Massachusetts. Our impact evaluation suggests that the pulling levers strategy was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the monthly number of gun homicide and gun‐aggravated assault incidents. A comparative analysis of gun homicide and gun‐aggravated assault trends in Lowell relative to other major Massachusetts cities also supports a unique program effect associated with the pulling levers intervention.     

Self-Reported Violent Offending Among Subjects with Genius-Level IQ Scores

While research indicates offenders have IQ scores approximately eight points below the population average of 100, very little is known about the crimes of individuals with above-average IQ scores. The current research is not limited to acts of family violence, but it describes the self-reported offending of 465 high-IQ subjects for eight violent crimes: robbery, carrying a concealed weapon, making a serious threat, serious assault, homicide, constructing an explosive device, kidnapping, and attempting suicide. Rates of prevalence and incidence are reported and compared to the rates from a control group of 756 individuals with average IQ scores. High-IQ subjects reported higher rates of prevalence, incidence, and arrest, but lower levels of conviction, than controls. A significant positive correlation exists for offenders between IQ score and lifetime incidence rate for robbery, homicide, and kidnapping, and a significant negative correlation exists between IQ score and incidence of attempted suicide.     

Stranger sexual homicide: an exploratory behavioural analysis of offender crime scene actions

ABSTRACT

This study explores the role and function of homicidal and sexual violence in cases of stranger sexual homicide. The aim was to determine whether the instrumental/expressive hypothesis of physical violence and the overt/covert hypothesis of sexual violence applies to this crime. The method involved an analysis of the crime scene actions of 81 British stranger sexual killers using multidimensional scaling. Results suggest the instrumental/expressive hypothesis of physical violence and the overt/covert hypothesis of sexual violence does apply to stranger sexual homicide but they manifest as instrumental/overt and expressive/covert superordinate themes comprising four sub-themes reflecting rape, impersonal sexual assault, overkill and control. Although these superordinate themes can explain some stranger sexual homicides, a key hypothesis of this study is that the four sub-themes can also combine into different superordinate themes, knowledge of which can aid our understanding of this serious and deviant form of interpersonal violence.     

Recidivist criminal behaviour and executive functions: a comparative study

This study sought to analyse the relation between executive functions and criminal recidivism. We assessed a set of cognitive abilities associated with executive functioning in a group of recidivist offenders (n = 19), primary offenders (n = 25) and non-offenders (n = 30). Our results, tested with nonparametric statistics and Monte Carlo method, revealed that there were no executive differences between both groups of offenders but, when compared with non-offenders, the recidivists showed a worse performance in Trail Making Test part B, and the primary offenders presented a significant lower score on Porteus Maze Test Age score. This study suggests that there can be a different pattern of executive functioning deficits associated with the offenders’ criminal record: recidivism may be more related to mental flexibility impairments and primary offenders’ antisocial behaviour may be aggravated by planning deficits.     

Reassessing the alcohol-violence linkage: Results from a multiethnic city

This article examines the relationship between alcohol availability and nonlethal violence at the census-tract level in Miami, a multiethnic city with high levels of disadvantage and immigration. The effects of alcohol (total outlet rate) are considered from the perspectives of social disorganization and routine activities theories. Nonlethal violence is the average annual rates of robbery, aggravated assault, and total violence (combined aggravated assault and robbery). The analyses include corrections for spatial autocorrelation. The results show that alcohol availability has strong positive effects on rates of nonlethal violence and that the percentage of recent immigrants is also a significant positive predictor.     

Young women and gang violence: Gender,street offending,and violent victimization in gangs

Drawing on multiple data sources in St. Louis, this article examines how gendered situational dynamics shape gang violence, including participation in violent offending and experiences of violent victimization. Combining an analysis of in-depth interviews with young women in St. Louis gangs with an examination of homicide reports from the same city, we find that young women, even regular offenders, highlight the significance of gender in shaping and limiting their involvement in serious violence. They use gender both to accomplish their criminal activities and to temper their involvement in gang crime. Consequently their risk for serious physical victimization in gangs is considerably less than young men's. St. Louis homicide data collaborate these qualitative findings. Not only are young women much less likely to be the victims of gang homicide, but the vast majority of female gang homicide victims were not the intended targets of the attack. In contrast, homicide reports suggest that the majority of male gang homicide victims were the intended targets. We suggest that gendered group processes and stratification within gangs are key factors explaining both violent offending and victimization risk in gangs.     

DOES VIOLENCE INVOLVING WOMEN AND INTIMATE PARTNERS HAVE A SPECIAL ETIOLOGY?*

We used data from a survey of inmates who have committed homicide or assault to examine whether men and women who have killed or assaulted their intimate partners are different from other violent offenders. A “gender perspective” implies that intimate partner violence and violence between the sexes have different etiologies than other types of violence, whereas a “violence perspective” implies that they have similar etiologies. Our evidence supports a violence perspective. In general, offenders who attack their partners are similar to other offenders in terms of their prior records, alcohol and drug use, and experiences of abuse. We observed some differences between men who attack women (including their female partners) and other male offenders, but the differences were opposite those predicted by a gender perspective. For example, men who attacked their partners were particularly likely to have been abused by their partners. In addition, men who attacked women were particularly likely to have experienced sexual abuse during childhood and to have been intoxicated at the time of the incident. These results suggest that some well-known predictors of violence are particularly strong predictors of male violence against women and female partners.     

SINUSOIDAL PATTERN ANALYSIS IN CRIMINAL INCIDENCE

This paper demonstrates a set of statistical techniques which can be used to assess variations in delinquency offensex The subjects are juveniles convicted of aggravated assault, aggravated battery, burglary, homicide, rape, and robbery. A statistically significant sinusoidal pattern was observed.     

Differential predictors of intimate partner sexual coercion versus physical assault perpetration

ABSTRACT

The current study attempted to strengthen existing literature regarding predictors of perpetrating intimate partner sexual violence to determine if there are unique predictors of sexual violence that differentiate it from physical abuse. It was hypothesised that men’s controlling, dominant and jealousy behaviours, and verbal aggression would significantly predict increased intimate partner sexual coercion and physical assault perpetration. These predictors were expected to be more predictive of sexual coercion than physical assault perpetration. Couples were recruited from the community (N?=?159) in a cross-sectional study recruiting couples with a violent male partner. Results demonstrated that men’s controlling behaviour was a significant predictor of sexual coercion and physical assault perpetration and behavioural jealousy was a significant predictor of sexual coercion perpetration. No predictors studied better predicted sexual coercion more than physical assault perpetration. These findings suggest that sexual coercion may be another type of physical assault without unique predictors.     

Neuropsychological and Criminological Features of Female Homicide Offenders

Few studies have examined life history and cognitive characteristics unique to female homicide offenders. Understanding these characteristics could aid in risk assessment for extreme violence in this group of offenders. The current study utilized t‐tests or chi‐square tests to compare 27 female and 81 male homicide offenders on psychiatric, neurologic, criminal, and cognitive characteristics. Additionally, we explored the role of abuse history in female offenders through Kruskal–Wallis or Fisher's exact tests. Results indicate that in comparison with male counterparts, females are more likely to have history of mood disorder, borderline personality disorder, and abuse. Cognitively, female homicide offenders exhibit circumscribed cognitive impairment in verbal abilities and perform similarly to male homicide offenders across most cognitive tasks. Within the female offender group, history of sexual abuse is associated with higher rates of impulsive homicide and poorer verbal abilities. These findings provide preliminary evidence for distinct factors associated with homicide in women.     

The Gender Gap in Violent Victimization, 1973–2004

In this paper, data from the NCS and NCVS are developed for the purpose of describing long-term trends in male and female violent victimization for the period 1973–2004. More specifically, gender-specific trends in violence are compared according to crime type and victim–offender relationship. Despite their potential usefulness, these data have not been published previously. The data reveal that the gender gap in robbery victimization has remained relatively stable while the gender gaps in aggravated and simple assault victimization have narrowed over time. Results varied when the data were disaggregated by victim–offender relationship. Male and female rates of nonstranger simple assault and nonstranger robbery were roughly equivalent throughout the period, and the greater risk for male nonstranger aggravated assault that was evident three decades ago has largely disappeared. The gender gap persists in stranger assault, but has narrowed somewhat because male rates of victimization have declined more than female rates. In addition, male and female trends and the gender gap in nonlethal intimate partner violence differ from the patterns established in intimate partner homicide studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of research that is needed to understand why the gender gap in violent victimization has changed for some types of violence but not others, and how greater attention to gender will improve efforts to understand crime trends.

Female Sexual Homicide Offenders: A Descriptive and Comparative Study

Research on female sexual homicide has been very scarce. In Europe, it has rarely been examined, and in Scotland, it has never previously been studied. This exploratory study aims to examine the characteristics of sexual homicides involving female offenders between 1990 and 2015 in Scotland. Using data from the Scottish Homicide Database between 1990 and 2015, female sexual homicides (n = 7) were compared to nonsexual homicides committed by females (n = 106) and to sexual homicides committed by men (n = 89) using Fisher's exact tests. The findings show that although female sexual homicide offenders are similar to both female nonsexual homicide offenders and male sexual homicide offenders in certain aspects, there are important differences that distinguish sexual homicides involving female offenders from both groups. Female sexual homicide offenders can arguably be seen as a distinct group of offenders, with specific characteristics and specific needs.     

Predicting charges and convictions for rape suspects in Denmark: characteristics associated with the notion of the ‘credible criminal’

In recent years, focus on the high attrition rates and low conviction rates in sexual assault cases in Scandinavia has increased. Attrition refers to the dropout of cases through the criminal justice system. However, only limited research exists on the importance of suspect characteristics for the legal outcomes in these cases. The present study is the first in Scandinavia to investigate legal and extralegal suspect variables relating to charges and convictions in the criminal justice system regarding suspected offenders in rape and attempted rape cases. All reported cases of rape and attempted rape in the Eastern Jutland Police District from 2008 to 2010 with an identified rape suspect (N = 175) were analysed through binary logistic regression analyses to examine which variables might increase the likelihood of charges or convictions. Results show that suspects with one or more prior sexual assault charges were more likely to be charged and convicted of a rape offence. The results of the present study help improve the understanding of the judicial processing of cases of rape from a different perspective than the victims’ and partially lend support to the hypothesis of ‘the credible criminal’ in terms of investigative and prosecutorial decision-making in rape cases.     

The impact of gun control and gun ownership levels on violence rates

What effects do gun control restrictions and gun prevalence have on rates of violence and crime? Data were gathered for all 170 U.S. cities with a 1980 population of at least 100,000. The cities were coded for the presence of 19 major categories of firearms restriction, including both state- and city-level restrictions. Multiple indirect indicators of gun prevalence levels were measured and models of city violence rates were estimated using two-stage least-squares methods. The models covered all major categories of intentional violence and crime which frequently involve guns: homicide, suicide, fatal gun accidents, robbery, and aggravated assaults, as well as rape. Findings indicate that (1) gun prevalence levels generally have no net positive effect on total violence rates, (2) homicide, gun assault, and rape rates increase gun prevalence, (3) gun control restrictions have no net effect on gun prevalence levels, and (4) most gun control restrictions generally have no net effect on violence rates. There were, however, some possible exceptions to this last conclusion—of 108 assessments of effects of different gun laws on different types of violence, 7 indicated good support, and another 11 partial support, for the hypothesis of gun control efficacy.     

Fighting back: Lethal responses to predatory attacks

Each year millions of Americans become victims of predatory crimes. The way victims respond to these attacks varies from complicance with offenders' requests to physically challenging offenders. In some cases, the physical defense of self and property has lethal consequences for the initial offender. While much is known about felony murder victims and typical homicide offenders, little is known about individuals who fight back against predatory attack by using lethal violence. In this paper, we use data from the Homicides in Chicago, 1965–1995 study to describe the characteristics of defensive homicide offenders and to determine how they compare with felony murder victims and defensive homicide offenders. Our results indicate that defensive homicide offenders are more similar to typical homicide offenders than felony murder victims, and are even more likely to have violent criminal histories and to use firearms than typical homicide offenders. Our results challenge the common perception that individuals who fight back against predatory attack are simply “law-abiding citizens.” We conclude the paper with a discussion of the implications of our study for additional research and police practice. Authors' Note: The authors thank editor Dennis Stevens and James Black for their helpful comments on earlier draft of the paper.     

Static screening instruments for risk of minor and major violence

Background: Screens for violent convictions that are simple, accessible and parsimonious are needed, as a first stage in identifying those at high risk for further assessment. Aims: To construct and validate screening tools for minor and major violence convictions for released prisoners. Methods: Internal validation sample of 1647 serious offenders and an external validation of 46,704 general prisoners. The outcomes were binary indicators for having at least one conviction for minor and major violence. Risk factors were convictions for violence and age. Results: In the external validation sample, the instrument for risk of minor violence (PMIV) identified correctly 60.8% of male and 66.2% of female general prisoners. For risk of major violence, the instrument (PMAV) identified correctly 68.0% of male and 79.3% of female prisoners. Conclusions: The PMIV and PMAV will efficiently assist practitioners in a first stage of screening before in-depth clinical assessment of risk for future violent convictions.