社会资本、工业集聚与经济增长——基于中国经验的实证研究

社会资本对经济增长的重要作用,已越来越受到人们的广泛关注。笔者在对社会资本、工业集聚与经济增长相互关系进行理论分析的基础上,采用中国2000年的截面数据,实证检验各地区信任指数对地区工业集聚水平的影响。结果发现,我国各地区的信任指数对地区工业集聚具有非常显著的促进作用。在我国,社会资本通过加速工业的集聚的方式,进而促进了经济的增长。这也进一步表明,我国地区间在社会资本水平上的差异是造成我国地区经济差异的一个十分重要的原因。     

A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Output Level and Growth in Poland and Western Economies

This paper uses Bayesian stochastic frontier methods to measure the productivity gap between Poland and Western countries that existed before the beginning of the main Polish economic reform. Using data for 20 Western economies, Poland and Yugoslavia (1980–1990) we estimate a translog stochastic frontier and make inference about individual efficiencies. Following the methodology proposed in our earlier work, we also decompose output growth into technical, efficiency and input changes and examine patterns of growth in the period under consideration.     

Investment mobilization and capacity completion in the Chinese and Soviet economies

This paper examines the relationship between the mobilization of resources into capital projects and the completion of new productive capacity in two ‘shortage’ economies—China and the USSR. Causes of delayed commissioning of new capacity, and the role of unfinished construction in the investment cycle, are analysed. Annual data over a long period are presented for both economies—for the USSR 1928–37 and 1950–83, and for China 1950–82. Changes over time in the relationship between investment mobilization and capacity completion are considered, along with differences and similarities between the records of the two economies under investigation.     

Regional Innovation Systems in Central and Eastern Europe: Determinants, Organizers and Alignments

While proximity was an asset in socialism, during the post-socialist period the development of the region as a locus of innovation is essential for restructuring and sustainable growth of economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The paper analyzes the factors that determine the emergence of regional innovation systems in CEE. Based on a conceptual model of regional innovation system we explore four determinants: national, sectoral, micro and regional. These determinants operate as conditional advantages or disadvantages that require network organizers and network alignment in order to be turned into real advantages. The paper points to the important role of network organizers for enhancing regional innovation in the post-socialist economies. Policy implications of the model suggest that the emphasis should be on functions and programs rather than on new organizations.     

Exchange rate, inflation and unemployment in East European economies: the case of Poland and Hungary*

The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation–unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy.     

International integration and the determinants of regional development in China

Concerns about the duration of China??s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China??s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced a more moderate development. To obtain broad continuos growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (1) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (2) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China??s provinces. Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Extending the model using an unbalanced panel leads to a positive effect of the quality of governance and institutions on development.     

The Economic Convergence Performance of Central and Eastern European Countries

A critical discussion of a comparative growth analysis about Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries is performed. The main conclusion is that there was economic convergence for most CEE accession candidates, but not between them and Western Europe. Results do justify a separation into first and second-wave accession countries, but also undermine differences in Central and Eastern Europe between accession and non-accession countries. This paper critically examines theories and empirical studies for three types of convergence, namely β,σ and club convergence. Each can be in absolute terms or conditional to the long-term equilibrium (steady state) for each country. Empirical results are provided for all types of convergence from 1996 to 2000, both with population-weighted and non-weighted data. The analysis is performed for differently framed country subgroups considering even Western Europe for better comparability. Once absolute convergence is found through a unit root test about a standard deviation time series of cross-sectional income per capita, the regression coefficient for initial income per capita with the average growth over the sample period as dependent variable (β convergence) establishes the speed of this process. The same method applies to the conditional version by using the distance of the income from the corresponding steady state instead of the level of GDP. Then Markov chain probability matrixes (club convergence) provide information about the past behaviour of the whole cross-sectional income distribution over time, but also about intra-mobility of single countries.     

Foreign direct investment and human capital in developing countries: a panel data approach

Theoretical studies have shown that there is a direct relationship between human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI). However, only a few available empirical studies have attempted to investigate this relationship simultaneously. Using country level panel data from 55 developing countries over the 1980–2011 period, this paper examines the interrelationship between FDI and human capital. Statistical analysis, based on simultaneous equations fixed effect estimation, reveals significant bi-directional causality between human capital and FDI, which suggests that FDI and human capital development policies need to be coordinated. FDI-led economic growth models may not be entirely suitable for all developing countries aiming to replicate the economic success of countries such as Brazil and China unless attention is also paid to human capital development through increased spending on education and training.     

An empirical study of openness and convergence in labor productivity in the Chinese provinces

Based on the theoretical framework of the Solow growth model, this paper employs a dynamic panel data approach to examine the impact of openness on growth and convergence in labor productivity in the Chinese provinces during the period 1984–2008. The study finds that regional openness has a significantly positive effect on regional growth in labor productivity in the Chinese provinces. When regional heterogeneity and regional openness are accounted for, the study finds fast conditional convergence in labor productivity across the Chinese provinces. As a byproduct, this study also estimates the structural parameters of the aggregate production function in the case of China. In sum, the major findings of this study lend strong support to the claim that openness promotes growth of labor productivity in China.     

The role of R&D and input trade in productivity growth: innovation and technology spillovers

Productivity improvements generally are driven by technology innovation and its spillovers. This study explores the role of R&D investment and intermediate input trade in productivity growth using country-industry-level data for 25 advanced and emerging economies. This paper confirms that R&D investment and intermediate input import/export (both intra- and inter-industry) with technologically advanced economies play important roles in productivity growth in non-frontier countries. We further find that the productivity gains of technology spillovers via input trade channels are likely larger for countries/industries where technology converges to the frontier. These findings imply that the recent slowdown in R&D investment and intermediate input trade in some advanced economies may contribute to declining productivity growth. The potential productivity improvements from R&D investment and free trade as well as the importance of domestic capacity in facilitating technology spillovers should be recognized.

     

Tripartite decomposition of labor productivity growth,FDI and human development: evidence from transition economies

This study investigates the relative contribution of technological change, technological catch-up and capital deepening as drivers of labor productivity growth in 14 transition economies during the period 2000–2012. In addition, the study extends the usual decomposition of labor productivity growth by encompassing the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on labor productivity growth in transition economies. To illustrate the relative contribution of FDI as a driver of labor productivity growth, we present a simple theoretical model that augments Kohli [Labour productivity vs. total factor productivity. IFC Bulletin 20 (April), Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, International Statistical Institute, 2005] and Grosskopf et al. (Aggregation, efficiency, and measurement, Springer, New York, pp 97–116, 2007) decomposition of the labor productivity. The insights derived in this model provide an underpinning to the empirical analysis in this study. Using Blundell–Bond dynamic panel General Method of Moments estimators, the main finding of dynamic panel data regressions shows that technological catch-up, technological change, and human development level, trade and demographic of population ageing are the main factors that affect labor productivity growth in transition countries. Furthermore, the findings of dynamic panel data regressions show insignificant positive impact of FDI on productivity growth in transition economies. One explanation is that the 14 transition economies that are included in this study do not reach a minimum human development threshold level.     

场外衍生品市场监管制度改革:英国的经验与启示

2008年金融危机暴露出全球场外衍生品市场监管制度的缺陷;金融危机后,全球各个国家和经济体都加强了场外衍生品市场监管制度改革。英国是全球最大的场外衍生品交易中心,英国场外衍生品市场监管制度改革措施一定程度上代表或影响着全球场外衍生品市场监管制度改革的趋势。通过分析金融危机前英国场外衍生品市场监管制度的缺陷以及金融危机后英国场外衍生品市场监管制度改革的主要措施,在此基础上提出完善我国场外衍生品市场立法和监管制度的建议。     

State-Owned Enterprises in Less Developed Countries: Privatization and Alternative Reform Strategies

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have typically played a much larger role in the economies of developing countries than developed countries. However, empirical evidence on the economic performance of SOEs generally yields negative results and suggests that SOEs are a major tax on the economies of developing countries reflected in the large operating subsidies required to sustain them. These inefficiencies seem in part attributable to ownership effects and partly to lack of competition effects. Empirical evidence on the effect of privatization of state-owned enterprises in both developed and developing countries suggests that this is often likely to lead to major improvement in economic performance. However, where privatization is not politically feasible, SOE reform alternatives such as management contracts, performance contracts, and greater exposure to competition may, in some contexts, enhance SOE performance, although typically they are second-best policy options to privatization.     

The size of the SOE sector and macroeconomic performance: an empirical study based on Chinese provincial data

Using a neoclassical growth model augmented with human capital, we investigate the impact of the presence of state owned enterprises (SOEs) on macroeconomic performance in China, using provincial data from 1990 to 2004. We estimate a macroeconomic model with panel methods to explain changes in labor productivity resulting from standard influences as well as presence of the SOE sector measured in five different ways. While controlling for growth in the labor force and physical capital, government size, exposure to trade and change in economic structure, we conclude that the relative share of the SOE sector has no significant influence on macroeconomic performance in China during our sample period.     

The role of interest rates during the transition to a market economy

We construct a simple two period model of an economy in transition from being centrally planned to being market oriented. Using this model, we draw certain positive conclusions about economic policies that reduce distortions during the transition period. In particular, we focus on the role of interest rates, a market parameter that has previously been almost entirely ignored in planned economies. Using stylized data derived from Czechoslovakia, we show that increase in nominal interest rates can actually be welfare-improving by partially compensating for the distortions induced by the transition process. The model is sufficiently general to be applied to a number of transition economies, and we use the cases of Czechoslovakia, the USSR, and China as examples of some of the phenomena that we are trying to explain. We show that the model generates a constrained, suboptimal equilibrium. In particular, we see that raising interest rates during the transition period reduces repressed savings, brought about by shortages in the controlled market. An improvement in consumer utility can therefore be brought about.     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: WILL THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LEAD OR FOLLOW?

Developing countries, particularly the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, should accommodate their national systems of innovation to the worldwide intellectual property (IP) regime emerging after the adoption of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) in a way that maximizes global economic welfare in the foreseeable future. As many developed countries' experience demonstrates, badly configured, over-protectionist IP regimes stifle innovation by making inputs to future innovation too costly and too cumbersome to sustain over time. More carefully considered IP regimes, however, are an important way to protect innovative small- and medium-sized firms from predatory, larger competitors. The challenge is for emerging economies to capture the benefits of IP without importing the serious problems that developed countries have themselves failed to solve. Emerging economies can attain this balance by pursuing a policy of counter-harmonization in which they take advantage of existing exemptions in international agreements governing IP to establish regional, local, and international practices that promote more innovative, flexible uses of IP. Such practices include a research exemption for experimental uses of IP, government imposed nonexclusive licensing, anti-blocking provisions, an essential facilities doctrine, and compulsory licenses. Additional tools include an ex ante regime of compensatory liability rules for small scale innovation and sensible exceptions, particularly for science as well as general fair use provisions, to the exclusive rights of domestic copyright laws. Emerging economies will have to overcome strong economic pressure to accept more restrictive IP regimes as part of free trade agreements as well as a lack of technical expertise and internal government coordination. However, emerging economies have already accrued enough experience to be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of various IP schemes and their own ability to tailor IP to local needs. Developing countries will need to take advantage of that experience and defend innovative practices at international dispute resolution forums. Through creative, determined efforts, the developing countries can avoid other countries' IP excesses while establishing the kind of IP norms that address the real conditions of creativity and innovation in today's digitally empowered universe of scientific discourse.     

EU accession and the hardening of soft budget constraints: some macro evidence

The hardening of soft budget constraints (SBCs) is a central element in transforming the economies of Central and Eastern Europe into market economies. This paper presents macro evidence on budget hardening of transition economies comparing the performance of EU accession countries relative to non-accession countries. We estimate SBC hardening for 21 transition economies in a partial adjustment model by measuring the reaction of employment to output changes over a 10-year period. The paper finds that accession candidates have reduced excess labour demand substantially relative to non-accession countries.

Export diversification and economic performance: evidence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa

In this paper we discuss relationship between export diversity and economic performance, focusing on Brazil, China, India and South Africa (BCIS). Using time data on exports over the period 1962?C2000 and Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models for each country, we note the similarities as well as differences in the patterns of diversification in these countries. We find evidence of a U-shape relationship between per capita income and export specialization in at least China and South Africa, and given that the results from Granger causality testing are inconclusive and not robust with regards to export diversification measures, some preliminary evidence from the results suggest that export diversification Granger causes GDP per capita in Brazil, China and South Africa, but not in India, where it is rather GDP per capita changes that are driving export diversification. From AGE modeling we find that South Africa differs from the other economies in that it is the only case where export diversification has an unambiguously positive impact on economic development while in contrast in Brazil, China and India, it is rather export specialization that is preferred. We show that the manner in which export diversification is obtained may be important: if it is obtained with less of a reduction in traditional exports, the impacts are better (less negative).     

External shocks,economic reforms,and the foreign trade behavior of the Soviet Union,China, and Hungary, 1970–1987

This article examines the external shocks and subsequent adjustment processes in the Soviet Union, China, and Hungary during 1974–76, 1979–81, and 1984–87. It compares the experiences of the three socialist countries with regard to external shocks to those of inward-and outward-oriented groups of newly industrializing countries (NICs). In contrast to the NICs, terms of trade effects were of secondary magnitude to export demand effects of external shocks in the three socialist countries during the first two periods. The oil-exporting Soviet Union had beneficial terms of trade effects during the first two periods, with unfavorable effects coming only in the third period. The adjustment responses to the external shocks varied greatly in the Soviet Union from the other two reform-oriented socialist countries and from both groups of NICs. It is interesting to note that the types of responses in the Soviet Union were quite opposite to that one observes for market economies. However, reform-oriented China and Hungary seemed to have response patterns similar to those of market economies, though China's response was similar to the outward-oriented NICs, while Hungary's was similar to the inward-oriented NICs.     

中国和印度的贫富差距比较分析

中国、印度两个发展中国家,经济改革都取得了令世人瞩目的成就。但在经济增长的同时,社会结构也发生 了变化,都面临着贫富差距扩大的问题。因此,通过对比中印两国贫富差距的异同,尤其是参考印度的情况,对于有 效治理中国的贫富差距问题,无疑具有重要的借鉴价值。