80年代以来大陆的国外中国学研究:历史与展望

国外对中国的研究开始于欧洲传教士来华, 迄今已经有数百年的历史, 期间经过了 欧洲汉学和美国中国学两条发展路线。国内对国外中国研究的研究开始于20世纪初期, 从80年 代之后得到迅速的发展。我国学界在国外中国学方面的研究已经取得了很好的成绩, 但在该领域 的性质、学科理论和主体意识等方面的研究仍有待于进一步加强。     

老挝人的“那珈”信仰研究（一）

一、关于老挝"那珈"的研究 "那珈",即"Naga"(注:以下只用"那珈"名),是老挝主体民族佬傣语族人信仰的一种神秘物.据笔者调查获悉,目前老挝国内、国外有关学者对"那珈"的研究还为数不多,主要有:     

美国与老挝1958年的补充选举

1954年日内瓦会议结束以后,美国开始关注老挝国内局势的发展,将老挝看作其在东南亚防御共产主义影响的重要缓冲地带,积极扶植符合其利益要求的代理人上台。美国为确保老挝保守势力取得1958年补充选举的胜利投入了大量的援助。尽管如此,选举结果却违背了美国的初衷,暴露了美国对老挝政策的先天不足。     

美国因素和1962年《日内瓦协议》以后老挝内战的重启

日内瓦协议签署以后，美国并没有停止对老挝事务的干涉。美国政府在继续援助老挝反共力量的同时，进一步采取了促进老挝中立派与右派势力合作的战略。美国对日内瓦协议的公然违背造成了老挝政治力量的再次分化与重组。老挝再次陷人内战的同时，美国也对老挝事务进行了直接的军事干涉，使老挝最终成为越南战争的真正战场。     

老挝的民族宗教问题及其政策

老挝人民民主共和国是一个多民族和佛教信徒众多的国家,老挝人民革命党在处理民族宗教问题的过程中,在马列主义民族宗教理论的指导下,结合本国实际,进行了一系列探索,取得了丰富的经验教训,对我们具有一定的借鉴意义。一、老挝人民民主共和国的民族问题与民族政策(一)老挝民族问题的特点老挝是一个多民族国家,在殖民地时期,殖民者对老挝各民族实行分而治之的政策,在各民族之间制造仇恨。在20世纪的30年战争期间,老挝国内各民族之间的民族矛盾进一步“两极化”,有的民族支持老挝爱国阵线,有的民族支持美国及王国政府。老挝的民族状况有两个特…     

老挝人民民主共和国的对外政策

老挝人民民主共和国是东盟的成员国,也是我国南方的重要邻国之一。加强对老挝外交政策的研究,有助于我们总结社会主义国家外交政策的经验教训,以及促进我国与老挝及其他东盟国家关系的健康发展。国际著名的老挝问题专家马丁.斯图亚特.福克斯在其1986年出版的《老挝:政治、经济与社会》一书中曾经系统地研究过老挝的外交政策和对外关系,不过马丁.斯图亚特.福克斯对老挝人民民主共和国外交政策和对外关系的研究截止到1985年。国内亦有学者研究过老挝的外交政策和对外关系。在国内外学者大量研究成果的基础上,本文主要就老挝外交政策的分期问题…     

一九八○年的老挝:预兆不祥

1980年所发生的许多事件表明,老挝人民民主共和国控制国内形势发展的能力越来越受不断来自国内和国外的压力所限制。在领导上和基础结构上均为薄弱的老挝政府,大量越南士兵和平民在老挝国土上的驻留,在物资供应上受变幻莫测的国外形势所制约的老挝内陆地理位置,尤其是,旨在控制柬埔寨的持续战斗,这一切都使老挝在1980年     

老挝人民民主共和国的教育文化政策和教育文化事业

老挝人民民主共和国是目前世界上仅存的五个马克思主义政党执政的国家之一。保障广大老挝民众的受教育权是老挝人民革命党和政府十分重视的问题。老挝人民民主共和国从建国之初就非常重视发展教育事业。教育在老挝人民民主共和国一直是一个优先发展的领域。同时，老挝人民革命党人重视文化事业的发展。加强对老挝教育文化政策和教育文化事业的研究，有助于我们加深对老挝国情的认识，促进两国的教育文化交流。     

欧美各国印支难民及其社团组织

一、印支难民问题受到国际上的关注一九七五年越南南方、柬埔寨、老挝都相继获得解放,当时这三国的一些旧政权人员及工商业者,出于政治和经济原因,逃到国外,但为数不多。在黎笋集团统治越南南方以后,为了实现其称霸东南亚的野心,对印支人民进行残暴统治,在越南国内反华、     

参考与借鉴：国外华侨华人研究现状述评

近年来，国外华侨华人研究亮点纷呈，今后，对弱势群体给予持续关注、“学科”痕迹淡化等将成为该研究领域主要发展方向。国内学界可从秉承人文精神、重视微观发掘、容纳多元路径等方面参考借鉴之。     

美国新政权与六方会谈前景探析

美国大选,执政八年的共和党政府结束了其历史使命,民主党奥巴马新政府建立.根据其上台前后的言行来看,美国奥巴马新政权的基本政策主要在于重振经济、结束伊战以及坚持反恐.在外交政策上,美国新政权将改变其前任布什政府初期的单边主义武力政策,更多地采取多边或双边的协调与合作政策.在朝鲜核问题以及六方会谈机制方面,虽然美国和朝鲜同为当事国,以及中国在其中也发挥了非常重要的作用,但是美国仍然握有相当的主动权.美国新政权的基本政策同样会延续布什政府后期利用六方会谈框架与朝鲜接触和谈判的政策,甚至会采取一些更积极的政策,因为奥巴马政权要解决其面临的内外难题,需要其盟国的协助,也需要中国等国家的协助,对朝鲜这样的国家也希望能够在国际压力下促使其和平地放弃核开发.当然,半岛无核化及防止核扩散仍然是美国的根本利益,要求朝鲜放弃核开发的目标不会有丝毫的改变,甚至从原则上来说美国新政权仍然没有承诺放弃使用武力.此外,美国新政权或者还仍然存在同中国和朝鲜之间在意识形态上的对立,但是,除非发生预料不到的突发事件,美国在朝核问题上使用武力的可能性极小,在意识形态上的某些不同也不会影响奥巴马政权务实灵活的现实主义政策.总之,美国新政权的基本政策有利于朝核问题的缓和,同样也有利于六方会谈持续发挥作用.虽然美国新政权有可能同朝鲜之间有更多的双边直接接触和谈判,但是不可能脱离六方会谈的框架,即或者两国的双边谈判在六方会谈框架范围内加以实现,或者彼此都需要六方会谈框架作为自己外交回旋的余地.作为美国新政权,虽然为了能够使朝核问题有所突破而有可能更加重视双边谈判,但考虑到同中俄的战略性关系以及同其盟国日韩的伙伴关系,也不可能弃六方会谈框架而不顾.     

日美贸易摩擦中三大谈判机制的对比研究

"市场导向的个别领域谈判"、"日美结构性障碍协议"、"日美经济框架对话"是战后日美双方缓解贸易摩擦的三大谈判机制。对三大谈判机制及其各自内部子议题的对比研究发现,贸易谈判中外压强度和谈判有效性之间并不存在对称关系。在这些谈判机制中,美国对日外压与日本国内的内压之间形成了动态的双层博弈。内压的结构与价值诉求、利益指向是分析贸易谈判的重要变量。     

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

During the Cold War, U.S. foreign policy was dominated by the strategic goal to contain Communism. Human rights and democracy were of secondary importance. In the post-Cold War period, the promotion of human rights and democracy as foreign policy concerns rose in prominence. In the spirit of Andrew Pierre, who once characterized arms transfers as "foreign policy writ large ," this study questions whether the transfer of U.S. arms mirrors America's foreign policy goals. To what extent do U.S. arms transfers reflect a concern for human rights and democracy? As a foreign policy instrument, do U.S. arms transfer patterns mark a transition between Cold War and post-Cold War worlds? To address these questions, I examine the empirical linkage between U.S. foreign policy goals and arms export agreements with developing countries for the years 1981–2002. I use a two-stage model to evaluate the decision-making process. The first-stage addresses whether a country is eligible to receive U.S. arms. If a country successfully passes through the selection stage, it progresses to the second stage where a decision is made about the amount of arms transferred. I use a Heckman model to estimate empirically the determinants of arms at both the initial selection stage and the subsequent amount stage. The findings indicate that during the Cold War years, human rights were not a significant determinant of arms transfers—although democracy was positively linked to U.S. arms in the selection stage. In the post-Cold War period, both human rights and democracy had a meaningful impact in determining the eligibility of a country to receive arms.     

1958年印尼内战与艾森豪威尔政府的政策

美国对1958年印尼内战的干涉是美国与第三世界关系史上一个有代表性的事件。艾森豪威尔政府从美苏两极对抗的角度认知和处理美国与新兴的民族主义国家的关系，将美国对亚非民族主义国家的政策附属于美国对苏冷战战略。正是基于这样一种政策思维，美国对印尼内战采取了干涉政策。干涉行动的失败，迫使美国决策当局重新检视对印尼政策的基本构架，并着手制定一项更为可行、更能反映印尼政治经济和社会现实的政策。     

The U.S. and third World Revolutionary States: Understanding the Breakdown in Relations

Although scholars focused on Soviet–American relations during the Cold War, the greatest number of conflicts for the U.S. occurred in the Third World, and most of these were with revolutionary states. Could U.S. policies toward the new revolutionary states have prevented the almost universal collapse in relations? Two dominant explanations for this breakdown are (1) American hostility toward revolutionary change and (2) Stephen Walt's variant of the spiral model. Using the comparative case approach and selecting "hard cases," this article disputes these explanations and offers a new theory based on the externalization of domestic conflict in the revolutionary states. Given their ideological goals, the radicals externalized their domestic conflicts with the moderates, who had transnational ties with the U.S., by fomenting tensions with Washington. To demonstrate that this theory can be generalized, this article varies the dependent variable and shows through a critical case that its lack of conflict can best be explained by the absence of the conditions that lead to externalization. The foreign policies of both the U.S. and revolutionary states are explained by classical realism as opposed to Walt's structural realism, which fails to account for the foreign policies of Third World states.     

Understanding the Unilateralist Turn in U.S. Foreign Policy

How should we explain the recent unilateralist turn in U.S. foreign policy? Some accounts treat growing American unilateralism as a passing aberration attributable to the neoconservative ideology of the Bush administration. This paper, by contrast, traces U.S. unilateralism to the structural effects, at home and abroad, of the end of the Cold War. Internationally, the removal of the Soviet threat has undermined the "institutional bargain" that once guided relations between the U.S. and its major allies. Absent Cold War imperatives, the U.S. is less willing to provide collective goods through strong international institutions and other states are less likely to defer to U.S. demands for special privileges that exempt the U.S. from normal multilateral constraints. Domestically, the end of the Cold War has weakened the ability of presidents to resist the appeals of powerful veto players whose interests are threatened by multilateral commitments. These factors suggest that American unilateralism may have deeper roots and more staying power than many expect.     

The Foreign Policy Beliefs of Political Campaign Contributors

Since the Vietnam War, scholarly interest in public and elite opinion of U.S. foreign policy has grown. Because elites generally have greater access to policy makers and more consistent political views, most work on this topic has focused on elite opinions of foreign policy. Most research has defined the term elite broadly, often placing more emphasis on social status than political power. We will reexamine elite foreign policy beliefs using a different elite, presidential campaign contributors. We have two main goals in this article. First, we will assess the differences between the foreign policy outlooks of political campaign contributors and other elites. While many types of elites may influence policy, political contributors are particularly likely to gain access to policy makers. The second part of this research note offers some food for thought on the origins of these beliefs. We present evidence that foreign policy beliefs are related to the same ideological orientations that shape contributors' views on domestic issues. The origins of foreign and domestic policy views should probably be considered together.     

Future U.S.-Russian Relations

Presidential changes in Russia and the U.S. may open new opportunities for improving increasingly important bilateral relations, but expectations are not high. With the elapse of the so-called Putin autocracy and the Bush unilateralism, U.S.-Russian relations are overshadowed by a new ＂Cold Word War,＂ if not a Cold War. The U.S. will continue to accuse Russia of running an autocracy in order to justify its own invasive foreign conduct and gain the moral high-ground. The two powers will be involved in a bitter struggle, alternating between offensives and defensives, containment and cooperation.     

Challenging U.S. Policymakers' Image of an Isolationist Public

A persisting question in international studies is whether academic research can have an impact on the making of foreign policy. Much research has shown that policy decisions can be greatly influenced by misperceptions, just as much as by objective factors. The article describes an effort by academic researchers to challenge U.S. policymakers' image of an actor in the U.S. foreign policy process—the American public. The study's focus was a widely held assumption in the U.S. foreign policy community that the American public in the wake of the Cold War was entering a renewed phase of isolationism, similar to the interwar years. The study first interviewed policy practitioners on their perceptions of the public, then performed a comprehensive review of existing polling data, and finally conducted new polls with input from policymakers themselves. The net result of the elite interviews and the analysis of public attitudes revealed a significant gap in all areas, which is presented in synopsis. Interviews with policy practitioners reveal two key dynamics that could well contribute to policymakers' misreading the public: a failure to seek out information about the public and a tendency to assume that the vocal public is representative of the general public. Indications that the study did have some impact on the thinking of policy practitioners are discussed in the conclusion.     

The Role of Ethnic Interest Groups in U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case of the Cuban American National Foundation

The role and range of activities of ethnic interest groups in U.S. foreign policy has received relatively little scholarly attention, though in the wake of the Cold War analysis of their activities has increased. The case of the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) during the 1980s suggests, however, that ethnic interest group activity is not new and may be far more complex than our standard conceptualizations allow. We review the literature on the role of ethnic interest groups in U.S. foreign policy and assemble some common assumptions and arguments about their origins, roles and relations with the government, and the conditions that favor their success. Then we examine origins of CANF, its web of relationships with government even during the Cold War, and its role as a near co-executor of policy. We conclude by assessing what the CANF case suggests about standard views of the roles of at least some ethnic interest groups in the process of making U.S. foreign policy, including the need to see how the state may try to use and sponsor such groups to further its policy goals.