中越关系的回顾与展望

今年是中越建交 5 0周年。这 5 0年来 ,中越关系既经历了“同志加兄弟”的亲密时期 ,也经历了相互敌视的低潮阶段 ,90年代以后 ,两国关系才得以恢复和发展。本文在对这一阶段的历史做了简要回顾的同时 ,对中越关系的现状进行了分析、阐述 ,认为中越关系在历经曲折之后 ,正逐步走上理性、务实、稳定的发展道路     

Cooperation Coupled with Conflicts: Korea–Japan Relations in the Post-Cold War Era

This article addresses a profoundly curious question of why Korea and Japan conflict with each other despite deepening ties and growing transactions. In contrast to the existing explanations, this article makes three analytical innovations. First, for inducing cooperation between Korea and Japan, what matters is convergence/divergence of external threat perception, not the magnitude of threat. Second, history is not a constant but a variable. Historical contentions can be escalated or deescalated depending on political situations. Third, the role of the US in managing Korea–Japan relations is important but not determinant. The style of US engagement in East Asia serves as an intervening variable for conflict management. This article suggests that frictions are highest when historical contentions are escalated and external threat perception diverges. On the other hand, cooperation potential is highest when historical contentions are deescalated and threat perception converges.     

The Puzzle of India’s Relations with “Central Eurasia”

ABSTRACT

India’s relations with Afghanistan and the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia have contributed to the growing interest in the country’s rise. By treating them together as “Central Eurasia,” the discourses of Indian foreign policy invoke a contiguous geopolitical locale bound to India by a shared past. Yet, despite the strategic articulation of a manifest Central Eurasian region, the article uncovers a puzzle of bifurcation in India’s foreign policy reflecting distinct operationalizations of India’s cultural capital in its relations with Afghanistan and the Central Asia republics. The comparative analysis indicates that prior historical experience becomes a compelling strategic context for the continuous framing and reframing of the country’s foreign policy space, which reveals India’s shifting perceptions of international order, self-identity, and global roles. India’s interactions in Central Eurasia offer a good illustration of the crossroads that New Delhi’s foreign policy is facing – either keep on proliferating discourses that spin yarns of the international influence of its historical capital or develop proactive diplomatic strategies that deliver the international status that India desires.     

Ripe for Cooperation or Rivalry? Commerce,Realpolitik, and War Memory in Contemporary Sino-Japanese Relations

Abstract

Sino-Japanese political relations, fraught with disputes and tension during the Koizumi years, only began to recover after Abe came to power. This article investigates the driving forces shaping recent and future bilateral relations. Using evidence from the Koizumi era, I argue that 1) bilateral commercial links prove a weak stabilizing factor for political relations; 2) the current distribution of power between China and Japan does not dictate their strategic rivalry, but they may still treat each other as rivals if they perceive the danger of long-term power transition and mutual hostile intent; 3) the frequent flare-up of bilateral history disputes can exacerbate mutual threat perceptions among elites and generate popular emotional pressure for hard-line government policy toward the other country. The future of Sino-Japanese cooperation heavily depends on their efforts to resolve the negative historical legacy.     

Market Power and Misunderstandings: The Case of EU‐Australian Trade Diplomacy

The article critically examines EU‐Australia relations through the negotiation of the 1994 and 2008 Agreements between Australia and the European Community on Trade in Wine. EU‐Australia relations are often characterised as defined by Australia's focus on the UK and the EU's agricultural policies. This article moves beyond these assumptions and analyses the negotiation of the wine trade agreements through three factors: the pattern of political institutions, power asymmetry and subjective utility of non‐agreement alternatives. It argues that perceptions, miscalculations, and misunderstanding have had an impact on how these factors shaped negotiation outcomes. These negotiations are an under‐studied case in the development of EU‐Australian relations, and are useful in understanding how the perceptions of negotiators shape outcomes in the EU's negotiations with Australia.     

On the Verge of an Alliance: Contemporary China-Russia Military Cooperation

ABSTRACT

The deterioration of Russia-US relations as a consequence of the Ukraine crisis and growing tensions in US-China relations have given rise to the perception that China–-Russia relations are an actual or incipient alliance. However, the alliance elements in China-Russia relations have never been systematically defined and empirically assessed, which makes assessing alliance dynamics in these important bilateral relations difficult. This article develops and applies a set of empirical criteria for an alliance to define how closely the post-Cold War China-Russia military relations have approached the alliance condition. It demonstrates that China and Russia have created strong institutional foundations for an alliance, and now only minor steps are necessary for a formal and functioning military alliance to materialize. However, the occurrence of such steps is not yet guaranteed.     

Northern Iraq

This article is about Western perceptions of Turkey at different periods. Following the “Young Turks” Revolution in 1908, British-Ottoman relations came under increasing strain as the logic of the Triple Entente played through. It also set British/German rivalry in a new context, captured by John Buchan in his celebrated novel “Greenmantle”. Present day Turkey is changing fast, developing socially and economically, while internationally it has become a regional player and a sort of ideological beacon for emerging Arab democracies. Yet, internally, some fear growing authoritarianism, while the situation in Syria means that any choices that Turkey makes will have consequences and costs. But the choices will be made by Turkey, not by outsiders. That is the measure of the progress already achieved.     

Looking on: France and the new Germany

Franco‐German reconciliation lies at the root of post‐war European co‐operation. The Franco‐German alliance, formalised in 1963, has become a powerful axis with which all other European powers have had to deal. It is contended in this article that the main French fears over German unification were those of a nation discovering itself to be a junior partner in a relationship within which it had long pretended to seniority. This article retraces French reactions to German unification during 1989–90, and reviews the state of contemporary Franco‐German relations with regard to personal relationships, changing perceptions of the equilibrium of the Franco‐German alliance, foreign policy, relations with central and eastern Europe, and European integration.     

Sheikh Wahbah al-Zuhaili on international relations: the discourse of a prominent Islamist scholar (1932–2015)

In recent years, radical and violent Islamist movements – such as al-Qaeda and its offshoot the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria – have seized the spotlight. A corollary of this preoccupation has been the proliferation of studies on the political thought of radical Islamist figures such as Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Osama bin-Laden. By contrast, scant attention has been paid to the thought of moderate contemporary Sunni Islamist scholars. This article attempts to rectify this situation by focusing on the international relations discourse of a prominent Syrian Islamist thinker Sheikh Wahbah al-Zuhaili (hereafter Zuhaili). The article examines Zuhaili's views on three central and interrelated topics: (1) the nature and underpinning principles of international relations; (2) war; and (3) the role of international law and international norms and conventions in international relations. By shedding light on Zuhaili's thought and situating it in its proper ideational and historical contexts, the article concludes that radical Islamist ideology is at the periphery of contemporary Islamist conceptualizations of international relations while the epicentre is held by mainstream Islamists whose perspectives on international relations are fairly compatible with prevalent western views, especially those emanating from the Realist school.     

How do the Youth Perceive and Experience Turkish Citizenship?

Citizenship is generally perceived as a political practice that falls within the historical domain of the nation-state. At least, this is the claim of many nation-states themselves, which disavow the possibility of citizenship outside of their own structures. Rather than concentrate on the organization of citizenship, this article, instead, concentrates on the experience of individual citizens. It explores a wide-ranging sample of Turkish youth's perceptions and practices of citizenship, focusing on three dimensions: citizenship as legal status; citizenship as identity; and citizenship as civic virtue. It argues that individuals' perceptions and experiences of citizenship can be mapped out according to these three dimensions, and, additionally, political affiliation or commitment is the key to young people's preference for any one of these dimensions. Thus the legal status aspect of citizenship was emphasized by liberal and republican young people; nationalist, Islamist and Kurdish youth were concerned for its identity aspects; and the civic virtue aspect was stressed by republican and leftist respondents. However the article also demonstrates that similarly to the experiences of young people themselves, these three aspects of citizenship are not clearly demarcated theoretical domains but are both deeply interrelated and conflicted with each other. The reasons for this lie in the practice and understanding of citizenship facilitated and propagated by the Turkish state.     

Hierarchy in Asian International Relations: 1300-1900

Abstract

Scholars in the field of international relations tend to treat the contemporary Asian system as if it emerged fully formed from nothingness in the post-World War II and post-colonial era. This essay explores a major historical epoch—the Asian international system from 1300 to 1900. During that time, the Asian international system was both intensive and extensive, in both interactions and relations between Asian states. Thus, understanding and incorporating this system into our theories of international relations is critical. To date, scholars have rarely described the main features of this system. In this article, I attempt such a task, and will also draw implications for mainstream international relations theories. In short, the research in this essay reveals that the historical Asian international system was stable and hierarchic in nature. The main theoretical finding is an alternative to the balancing proposition. That is, the findings in this article present a major empirical challenge to the argument that balance of power is a recurrent phenomenon across time and geography. Furthermore, this article shows that hierarchy may be more stable than balancing as an organizing principle in international relations.     

Hybridity and Change: Gamonales,Montoneros and Young Politicos in South‐Central Peru

The article provides an analysis of three historical forms of political subjectivity in South‐Central Peru: the montoneros, the gamonales and the post‐conflict politicos. Based upon a historical sociology of puna–valley relations, the article suggests that subjectivities should be read not as emanating from either side of the racialised misti–Indio divide, but instead as fractals of this.     

Perceptions of State and Leadership in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan (1991–2009)

The focus of this paper is the shifting perceptions of the state, leadership and politics, and the shifting perceptions of Azerbaijanis themselves and the outside world. The information presented in this article is based on personal interviews conducted with leading and influential members of the Azerbaijani political elite in Baku in August 1998 and April 2009. Attitudes and norms concerning the state, leadership and politics emanate from three sources: the legacy of the pre-Soviet (Turkish) period, the Soviet period, and the circulation of western democratic values and norms. This reflects the impact of historical and cultural forces that have shaped the lives of the political elites and are manifested in their understanding of contemporary governance. A powerful state and a strong leader mutually reinforce each other where the leader is perceived as responsible for the well-being of its citizens. In this context, the article examines the conflicting narratives of the government and the opposition in Azerbaijan while reconstructing their national past and building their future, where their past becomes an important source for the mentality of governance in the country.     

Peace Pedagogy and Interpretative Frameworks of Distrust: State–Society Relations in the Colombian Peace Process

The Havana Peace Accords of 2016 sought to end five decades of internal conflict in Colombia. As well as disarming the FARC, they promise to bring state institutions to abandoned regions and enable citizen participation. However, there is an obstacle to this which has consistently been overlooked by Juan Manuel Santos' government: a chronic distrust in the state dating back to colonialism. This article draws on ethnographic research with the Colombian government's ‘peace pedagogy’ team, tasked innovatively with educating citizens about the Havana Accords and incorporating them in the co-production of peace. It shows that citizens' learning about state policies, and reception of state efforts to shape that learning, are filtered through pre-existing perceptions of the state: in Colombia, interpretative frameworks of distrust. This ethnography illuminates state–society relations in the Colombian peace process, offering implications for ongoing implementation of the Accords, and posing questions for other countries in transition, arguing that historically-constituted perceptions of the state should be taken into account when communicating government policies to society.     

Individuals,Parties and the Parliamentary Record in the 1690s

SUMMARY

In this article Colin Brooks reviews the historical writing of the last thirty years on British history between 1688 and 1714. This has offered a variety of interpretations which give priority to a number of different factors. The problem now facing historians is how to synthesize these interpretations into a coherent account. The article suggests that while it is possible to reconstruct from the surviving source materials what happened in the House of Commons, the incompleteness and the ambiguities of the evidence make it much more difficult to determine why it happened, or what were the motives of the individuals taking part. The nature of the source materials requires that they be interpreted with more caution than they have often received: they have as much to tell about individual perceptions as about what actually happened.     

东向政策与大国平衡:印度东盟认知的改变

印度东盟关系的发展得益于印度的东向政策和东盟的大国平衡战略,而双方认知的改变是其根源。     

The foreign policy and intervention behaviour of Nigeria and South Africa in Africa: A structural realist analysis

This article assesses the foreign policy and intervention roles of Nigeria and South Africa in Africa, given their status as regional powers, and the regional complexes within which they operate. Drawing references from a plethora of conflicts in which these two states have intervened, this article argues that structural realism, given its emphasis on the material structure of power and the pursuit of relative gains, is useful as a theoretical framework in this assessment. The article makes a contribution to the literature by illustrating the value of structural realism as an international relations (IR) approach within which the intervention behaviour of these two African states can be analysed. The author acknowledges that while structural realism points to the fact that the pursuit of relative gains may be behind the normatively-clad role conceptions of states, foreign policy cannot be reduced to the pursuit of relative power alone.     

Municipal Democratisation in Rural Latin America: Methodological Insights from Ecuador

As municipal governments in Latin America acquire greater responsibility for public goods and services and the promotion of economic and social development, and play a greater role in local citizenship, questions about the quality of municipal democracy also need to be taken much more seriously. This article proposes a 'relative power approach' that examines the distribution of social power at the microregional level and its impact on municipal governance as the starting point for the analysis of municipal democratisation in Latin America. The approach lays particular emphasis on historical changes in the distribution of local productive assets, the political organisation of local social actors, coalitions between and divisions within local social sectors and the ways in which local power relations are shaped by global and national forces. The article then explores the practical application of the relative power approach to three municipalities in rural Ecuador.     

‘Modelling’ for Democracy? Turkey's Historical Issues with Freedom of Speech

Although Turkey has come a long way in terms of human rights since the 1980 military coup, a closer historical look inside the Turkish political scene shows us how freedom of speech was always to be sacrificed if its exercise threatened the perceived unity of the country. The article shows how decision makers’ perceptions of the state as a superior institution in need of protection have shaped the practice of governing free speech in Turkey since the early years of the Republic, and introduces a unique chronology, accounting for the interaction of internal and external influences.     

Authoritarianism And Political Ideas Of Latvian Nationalist Intellectuals

This article explores the authoritarian elements of Eastern European nationalism from an historical point of view. The focus is on the case of Latvian nationalist ideas and particularly the authoritarian nationalism serving the interests of the Kārlis Ulmanis regime between 1934 and 1939. The evidence is collected from the political writings of nationalist intellectuals, who are treated as the authors of Latvian nationalist philosophy. It is concluded that the nationalist intellectuals were willing to accept authoritarianism as a realization of their visions of perfect national existence. Consequently, Latvian nationalism lost its conceptual independence and became an instrument of Ulmanis’ political rhetoric. Thus, the article provides insights about the complex relations between intellectuals and political power.