Continuity and change in Russia's policy toward Central and Eastern Europe

The accession of the CEE states to NATO and the European Union has put an end to the geopolitical ambiguity and implicit insecurity in the region between Russia and the so-called ‘Old Europe’. Instead of being an area of great powers' rivalry, elements of ‘buffer belts’ lacking meaningful strategic options, objects of raw Nazi-Soviet deals, or zones under Russian occupation and domination, the three Baltic States and the Visegrad group countries became full-fledged members of the European Union and were given NATO's security guarantees. By the middle of the 2000s, one would conclude that traditional geopolitics had ended in this region.However, the changes in the strategic situation in CEE have not changed the deep rooted moving forces and long-term strategic goals of the Russian policy toward the region. Moscow seeks to have the position, as its official rhetoric says, of an ‘influential centre of a multipolar world’ that would be nearly equal to the USA, China, or the EU. With this in view Moscow seeks for the establishment of its domination over the new independent states of the former USSR and for the formation of a sphere of influence for itself in Central Eastern Europe. If it achieves these goals, then Europe may return once again to traditional geopolitics fraught with great power rivalries and permanent instabilities radiating far beyond CEE borders.Yet a few questions remain. Has Russia come to the conclusion that attempting to restore its privileged position of influence in Central-Eastern Europe is wrong? Has Russia enough power to threaten the CEE countries? How credible are NATO's security guarantees? How may Russian behavior in CEE affect a wider European geopolitical context? These questions are appropriate in the light of Russia's ‘resurgence’ as a revanchist power and because Russia is, and most probably will remain in the next five to ten years, a weighty economic and strategic factor in areas along the Western borders of the former USSR.     

China–CEE Trade,Investment and Politics

Abstract

The growing and intensifying cooperation between China and 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has generated extensive criticism by and concerns among EU institutions and Western European member states of the Union. According to diplomatic presumptions, China aims to gain political leverage in exchange for economic benefits in the EU through its CEE members. The following article attempts to evaluate the correlation between the quality of bilateral political relations and economic relations of China and CEE countries in order to draw conclusions on the importance or, on the contrary, the irrelevance of Chinese activity in the region.     

The continuing relevance of Germany's engine for CEE and the EU

The article looks first into the nature of the relations between Germany and the CEE countries a decade since the accession of the CEE countries to the EU. The relations are characterized as normalised and intensive with diverse levels of closeness and co-operation reflecting of the conceptual and ideological compatibility/differences.Next, the article focuses on the German attitude to the euro zone crisis. Germany has become a hegemon in the rescue effort aimed at stabilisation and economic invigoration of the euro zone. However, German hegemony has developed by default, not by design: her leading position is linked with considerable political and financial costs. Germany moved central stage and took the position of a reluctant hegemon. However, German role is contested internationally (it has not the support of the French government in key areas) as well as internally (particularly by the Federal Constitutional Court and the Bundesbank).The article argues that the new situation makes the German–CEE relations increasingly relevant for both sides. The German leadership of the EU increasing split along the north–south divide requires backing by the Northern group countries to which the CEE in general belongs. Given a number of reasons the CEE countries implement three distinctive strategies of co-operation with Germany in European politics. Also military co-operation, which remained rather limited so far, may receive new impulses, given the financial austerity.     

Introduction

Central Eastern Europe (further CEE) has been thoroughly reconstructed during nearly a quarter of century since the fall of the Berlin wall and the end of the cold war. The CEE countries turned to the West for economic and technological advancement, for political and administrative models as well as for protection. The authors coming from eight different countries look at the place and role of the former member states of the Warsaw Pact in the new European and international constellation. This concept of CEE includes most pro-western states of the former ‘Eastern block’: the four countries of Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) and the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia). There were many tumultuous political developments in and around the region within the last decade, and especially during the last five years when the financial crisis started to take its toll. While the Atlantic link of Central and Eastern Europe is still strong, many commentators have pointed out its wearing strategic meaning. The balance between the focus on the USA and the EU has shifted in favour of Europe. However, this shift has rather been an incomplete one due to the region's own political and economic problems. The aim of this special issue is to analyse the new constellation by looking at the CEE countries themselves, at their ability to react and adapt, produce sound political strategies and act on as national actors: through bilateral ties, regional co-operation, NATO and the EU. Also, the main external actors - the USA, Russia and Germany - are looked at as they directly influence the way how the CEE countries shape their policies.     

国际金融危机背景下对中东欧经济转轨问题的再思考

转轨20年来,中东欧国家已经建立了市场经济体制,经济转轨的任务已经完成。围绕中东欧经济转轨方式的争论,如休克疗法与渐进主义等,在转轨20年后虽然已无现实意义,但仍具有永恒的学术意义。全球化与欧洲化为中东欧国家的赶超创造了有益的条件,但全球经济的波动也给中东欧国家带来了潜在的风险。国际金融危机并不会导致中东欧国家抛弃现有的增长模式,但并不排除中东欧国家对增长模式进行微调。国际金融危机的冲击对"改革疲乏症"敲响了警钟,为中东欧国家进一步加快改革提供了契机。     

Economic Transformation Outside the Law: Corruption,Trust in Public Institutions and the Informal Economy in Transition Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

This article considers the role of the informal economy in Central and Eastern European post-communist countries. The informal economy is defined as the ‘black’ economy, which is monetised but outside the law (often illegal) on the one hand and the ‘household’ and ‘social’ economies which are non-monetised and non-legal in the sense that they are outside of legislation. The article shows that in some countries the black economy is very important for supporting household incomes (Serbia and Croatia) and in other countries the household or social economies are predominant (especially Romania and Ukraine). In a third group of countries the formal economy predominates over other economies (especially the Czech Republic and Hungary). The article goes on to look at what kinds of people participate in these different economies and concludes that whilst the household and social economies are a social safety net for the poor, the elderly and those in rural areas, the black economy is more likely to be an option for those who are already better off to improve their incomes. The article considers the implications of this for attitudes to the legitimacy of the public realm and finds that greater participation in the informal economy is associated with both loss of trust in public institutions and increased perception of corruption. Therefore it is hypothesised that economic activities that take place ‘outside the law’ could lead to a decline in confidence in the state, although there are important variations between countries.     

中东欧的民粹主义基础及其影响——兼论中国与中东欧国家关系

中东欧民粹政党有大量社会底层支持者,农民是最有代表性的民粹主义基础。从历史制度主义的视角看,以农民为代表的中东欧民粹支持者与历史上保守势力的支持基础有类似的逻辑。在农业仍为关键产业的中东欧国家,当传统经济受到转型后突如其来的外部经济影响时,既有经济结构和生产关系受到严峻挑战,在本土保守势力的推动下,竞争力不足的中东欧国家呼吁保护传统经济,反对以西欧为代表的新自由主义的价值腐化、以威权整肃国内腐败、强调历史上的民族荣光、复兴宗教及家庭伦理等。这一思潮被民粹政党用以获取政治权力。在外部经济压力下,农民、城市底层民众、经济民族主义者、保守的政治精英、大文化中心论者共同构成支持民粹主义的基础,民粹政党的兴起是精英和大众共同推动的结果。中东欧民粹政党自该地区转型后就出现在政治舞台,其影响深度和广度是欧洲其他地区所不及的。有鉴于此,探索一条以民粹主义基础为导向的策略路径,整合政府、企业和民间机构三类实践主体,有助于强化中国在中东欧的影响力。积极推进民粹政党或执政党的对华合作,是中国强化和拓展中东欧地区利益的重要方向。     

China’s Economic Diplomacy in Central and Eastern Europe: A Case of Offensive Mercantilism?

Abstract

Since China launched the 16?+?1 forum for meetings with Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2012, European observers have struggled to understand the Chinese approach. In contrast to its oft-repeated claim of ‘win–win’ cooperation, some believe China is pursuing an assertive strategy of ‘divide and conquer’ designed to benefit China at Europe’s expense. China’s economic diplomacy in CEE is examined through the critical lens of Holslag’s ‘offensive mercantilism’ framework, finding it useful for assessing empirical aspects of China’s approach to CEE, but failing to find evidence for the assertion that China’s economic diplomacy is divisive and bad for Europe.     

Coming out of the shadow? Studies of local governments in Central and Eastern Europe in European academic research

This article is an analysis of the changing role of research on local governments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) within mainstream European studies. It refers to dependency theory (Wallerstein, Prebish) as applied to scientific research. It classifies CEE as being in the semi-periphery of academic research. The empirical analysis consists of two parts: (1) qualitative review of the most important of the comparative studies of European local governments. It includes a discussion on the role of local governments and researchers from CEE in these studies; (2) quantitative based on an analysis of articles published in international journals and citations for those articles in Scopus. The analysis covers 14 countries (all new member states who joined the EU from 2004 onwards, plus the Balkan countries: Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia).     

Between willing and reluctant entrapment: CEE countries in NATO's non-European missions

The article focuses on Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries' experiences related to Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, three non-European theatres of Western military operations, in predominantly Muslim lands, in the decade between 2001 and 2011. CEE countries readily became involved in two of these foreign missions (Afghanistan and Iraq) because of their deep ties to Western politico-economic structures, without direct security interests compelling them to do so, but not without normative convictions regarding what were seen by them as virtues of the two missions. In Libya, however, they were reluctant to join the Western intervention. In light of this, the article is interested in examining how political elites within the region relate to the generally constrained security policy agency that they have. A key argument advanced is that such agency may be located in how external hegemony is mediated in elite discourses of threat and legitimacy construction. This as well as the three case studies outlined in the article show that the seeming changes in CEE countries' behaviour in fact boil down to a simple set of rules guiding their behaviour. Having identified this “algorithm” as an implicit pattern of CEE foreign policy behaviour, originating in the intra-alliance security dilemma within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the article formulates its conclusions about the alliance policy of these countries largely within a neorealist framework.     

EXIT,VOICE, AND DISAPPOINTMENT: MOUNTAIN DECLINE AND EU COMPENSATORY RURAL POLICY IN SPAIN

The article analyses the Spanish experience of EU compensatory rural policy in order to contribute to broader debates on the effectiveness of this kind of policy and the role of agriculture in the definition of European rural policies. In the case of Spain, compensatory allowances to mainly mountain farmers had little effect on economic trajectories or social cohesion because of the small sums involved, the exclusion of those with very small farms, and the decreasing role of agriculture in the rural economy. Other, more structural, instruments of rural policy focused on small‐scale promotion of business growth but were ill‐equipped to challenge some of the territorially defined items of living standard gaps. A historically grounded analysis suggests that the main changes in the social trajectory of Spain's mountain areas in the last decades have little to do with compensatory policy and are related to ordinary economic dynamics.     

Life Satisfaction across Cities: Evidence from Romania

Based on the literature on agglomeration economies and studies on life satisfaction, especially with regard to Central and Eastern European countries, this article focuses on subjective wellbeing in Romania between 1996 and 2011. The findings indicate that life satisfaction was greater in larger cities, although the positive effects of agglomeration held up to a certain threshold. These effects were both direct (people living in large cities were more satisfied than those living in rural areas) and indirect (people living in rural areas embedded in urbanised regions were more satisfied than people in rural areas embedded in less urbanised regions).     

中东欧地区大国博弈新态势--兼论中国-中东欧国家合作面临的挑战与机遇

在地缘安全、能源、价值观等方面,美国、以德国为主要代表的欧盟国家以及俄罗斯在中东欧地区有着广泛而重要的利益。三者的互动关系呈现美俄博弈主导中东欧安全形势,美德(欧)联合制俄但共识有限,美德(欧)对中国在中东欧的经济介入保持警惕但难以形成合力三个特征。随着中美竞争的持续,美德(欧)与以波兰、匈牙利为代表的中东欧国家在价值观上的分歧扩大,美德(欧)对俄罗斯的地缘政治攻势升级,中东欧地区的大国力量格局发生了新的变化。美国对中国的战略围堵压力持续加大,以德国为代表的欧盟国家对中东欧国家的控制力不断降低,俄罗斯反“守”为“攻”回应西方威胁,而德国新政府和新一届欧盟委员会对华政策更加突出价值观因素,导致中国—中东欧国家合作面临的地缘政治压力总体上有增无减。但是,美欧内部也并非铁板一块,以德国为代表的欧盟国家在中东欧控制力的弱化以及美欧与波兰、匈牙利等国关系的恶化,也为持续推进中国—中东欧国家合作带来了潜在机遇。以上因素作为影响中东欧国家对华政策的重要变量,需要密切关注。     

Switzerland and the EU: the puzzling effects of Europeanisation without institutionalisation

Switzerland is not a member of the EU and in 1992 refused to join the European Economic Area (EEA) treaty in a popular vote. A conservative majority preferred to keep utmost national autonomy, and consequently, relations between the EU and Switzerland are regulated by a series of bilateral treaties. This process of Europeanisation without institutionalisation has led to profound changes of Swiss politics over the last two decades. While many effects of economic liberalisation and internationalisation are similar to those found in EU countries, some specific problems like the acceleration of immigration present rising social conflict. Social cleavages between urban and rural regions, and between capital and labour are deepening. The continuous rise of the conservative nationalist Swiss People's Party and the growing polarisation between the political Right and Left have put the traditional political culture of accommodation and power sharing at risk. Twenty years after the No-vote on the EEA-treaty, Switzerland is a divided country. Why do Swiss politicians still practice consensus democracy, and what does the divide mean for the future relations between the EU and Switzerland?     

Agriculture and rural out-migration in Central Asia, 1960-91

"This article seeks to analyse agrarian structure and policy in the Soviet period and discuss their effect on migration from rural to urban areas. In the case of [Soviet] Central Asia, neither the various steps to bring down labour intensity in the farm sector, nor the falling standard of living in rural areas, could bring about migration from rural to urban areas. This was because in traditional societies economic mechanisms are not effective unless they are complemented by appropriate social and cultural policies. All policies were oriented towards the state's goal of vertical integration of regions with the central economy. In Central Asia in particular this policy resulted in serious distortions in the social and economic spheres."     

MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF MARGINALIZATION PROCESSES AT THE PERIPHERY OF EUROPE

Under the influence of the enlargement of the European Union, there is now a renewed concern for marginalization processes in rural areas. Especially in countries at the periphery of Europe, these processes often have a large‐scale and multifaceted character. As agriculture and rural areas have become dissociated, the marginalization or success of the one no longer necessarily affects the other, and not necessarily in the same way. Dealing with the phenomenon in policy terms requires tools to explicate it. In this article, we present a simple typology of marginalization processes as a first step to its disentangling. The typology is applied to Finland and Portugal, countries at the periphery of Europe. The results strengthen the idea that different processes with different characteristics are going on at the same time, requiring specific approaches.     

Welfare reforms and socio-economic trends in the 10 new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe

The paper reviews recent socio-economic changes in the 10 new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe and the earlier and latest debates on the emergence of the post-communist welfare state regime. It asks two questions: are the new EU member states more similar to each other in their social problems encountered than to the rest of the EU world? Do they exhibit enough common socio-economic and institutional features to group them into the distinct/unified post-communist welfare regime that deviates from any well-known welfare state typology?The findings of this paper indicate that despite some slight variation within, the new EU countries exhibit lower indicators compared to the EU-15 as it comes to the minimum wage and social protection expenditure. The degree of material deprivation and the shadow economy is on average also higher if compared to the EU-15 or the EU-27. However, then it comes to at-risk-of-poverty rate after social transfers or Gini index, some Eastern European outliers especially the Check Republic, but also Slovenia, Slovakia and Hungary perform the same or even better than the old capitalist democracies. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, however, show many similarities in their social indicators and performances and this group of countries never perform better than the EU-15 or the EU-27 averages. Nevertheless, the literature reviews on welfare state development in the CEE region reveal a number of important institutional features in support of identifying the distinct/unified post-communist welfare regime. Most resilient of it are: an insurance-based programs that played a major part in the social protection system; high take-up of social security; relatively low social security benefits; increasing signs of liberalization of social policy; and the experience of the Soviet/Communist type of welfare state, which implies still deeply embedded signs of solidarity and universalism.     

Irregular Maritime Immigration in the Canary Islands: Externalization and Communautarisation in the Social Construction of Borders

Analyzing irregular international migration requires a border concept that can be integrated into the social sciences and migration theories. This article views borders as social institutions and considers irregular migration patterns in the Canary Islands from the 1990s as resulting from changes in border management introduced by Spain and the European Union. After the peak of irregular maritime arrivals in 2006, a multilayered deterrence strategy was implemented through increased border surveillance and externalization measures such as readmission agreements and policing the borders of transit countries. As a result, the Atlantic route from Africa to Europe has lost its importance as an alternative to the Mediterranean corridor.     

Coping with financial crises: explaining variety in regional arrangements

Financial regional arrangements vary across countries and change over time. Until recently, most economists and political scientists took the European model of monetary integration as the yardstick to which all other regional financial arrangements had to measure up in this article. It is argued that the Euro crisis provides an opportunity for scholars to adopt a different perspective that does not interpret the variety of financial arrangements merely as economic deficiencies caused by the incapacity or unwillingness of regions to follow the European model. Instead, the comparative study of monetary and financial regionalism has to account for the different factors that shape variations. These go from different levels of economic development, over regional political and economic preferences to historical processes which shape the institutional context and the constellation of interests and social forces. Such an approach, which integrates economic and political science approaches, de-centres the Euro model and opens up a new understanding of the global diversity of regional monetary and financial cooperation, and their potential to cope with financial crises.     

The Greying Periphery—Ageing and Community Development in Rural Romania and Bulgaria

The impact of ageing on community well-being has been part of the policy discourse in the West, but it is a relatively new problem for the post-socialist countries in Eastern Europe. This study focuses on the patterns of ageing in rural Romania and Bulgaria, offering a holistic view of vulnerabilities, including persistent rural disadvantages, ageing in the countryside and the post-socialist transformation. Aggregate statistics and community case studies reveal the links between demographic processes and community development. This paper contributes to the country-specific analysis of the ageing European periphery in the context of social cohesion as a fundamental European goal.