Explaining the ‘quiet earthquake’: voting behaviour in the first election to the National Assembly for Wales

This paper examines voting behaviour in the inaugural election to the National Assembly for Wales (NAW), held in May 1999. We address two questions: (i) why did the election produce a ‘quiet earthquake’ in Welsh electoral politics, with the nationalist Plaid Cymru denying the Labour party their expected majority in the Assembly?; and (ii) what broader lessons does this case-study offer for the study of elections in the UK under devolution? Drawing on data from the Welsh National Assembly Election Study, we find that while some features of second-order election theories, such as lower turnout and a lower vote share for the governing party were manifest, contrary to the predictions of such theories the surge in electoral support for Plaid was largely prompted by Welsh-specific factors rather than UK-wide ones. The findings are argued to indicate limits to the applicability of second-order approaches to the study of devolved elections in the UK.     

The Welsh Liberal Democrats: From Government to Opposition and Then Back Again?

For over 50 years from 1945 onwards, the Liberal Party and then the Liberal Democrats were either in decline in Wales or struggling to survive from election to election. Since 1997, however, there has been a steady evolution in the party's electoral and political strength. Over this past decade, the Welsh Liberal Democrats, as a state party, have experienced a change in electoral fortunes that has on occasions put them into national political power well in advance of their federal counterparts in England. As an autonomous state party within a federal structure, the Welsh Liberal Democrats have been able to take like a duck to water to the arrival of devolution in the form of the Welsh Assembly. This article examines how the evolution of the party has occurred and, in particular, the role that has been played by the Welsh Liberal Democrat Assembly Members in Welsh politics. The article also explores not only the strengths but also the weaknesses that still dog the Welsh party as it seeks once more to become a major force in Welsh politics.     

Saving the Union: Conservatives and the 'Celtic Fringe'

The creation of devolved institutions in Scotland and Wales has forced the Conservative party to rethink its Unionism. At Westminster, the Conservatives have highlighted the anomalies of the devolution settlement and pressed for a rebalancing of the constitution. With the re-emergence of the West Lothian question in 2003, the Conservatives revived William Hague's proposal for 'English votes for English laws'. Fresh thinking on devolution is evident in the Scottish and Welsh Conservatives but they remain in the electoral doldrums. The Conservatives have taken tentative steps towards a 'new Unionism', but there are tensions between the focus on the 'English question' at Westminster and the efforts of Conservatives in Scotland and Wales to convince voters that they represent the interests of both the Union and their respective nations.     

British Statewide Parties and Multilevel Politics

The article addresses how Britain's major statewide politicalparties—Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats—adaptedto political devolution in Scotland and Wales. It explores partyorganization, programs, and policymaking. It argues that theLabour Party experienced the most territorial intraparty conflictbut fairly rapidly achieved a new balance between British andScottish/Welsh party interests. The Conservative Party struggledafter its 1997 UK election defeat and failed to adapt to multilevelpolitics with any consistency. The Liberal Democrats experiencedthe smoothest adjustment, largely on account of their own federalparty constitution. The article concludes that the findingsprovide some backing to "rational choice institutionalist" hypothesesof party change but that a "historical institutionalist" approachcan provide a fuller understanding of how parties adapt to devolutionreforms.     

Issue salience in regional and national party manifestos in the UK

The study reveals the salience of particular issues in the manifestos of the main British parties for the 1997 and 2003 UK general elections, as well as the 2003 Scottish and Welsh elections, using the method introduced by the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) and a modified list of issue categories to reflect the division of government competences between the central and regional governments. Ideological and social base of a party, as well as the delimitation of government competences, are found to be important determinants of issue salience. A more consensual institutional design of the regional government in Scotland and Wales seems to have conditioned larger differences among the issue profiles of parties competing in regional elections, in comparison with general elections. With the institutionalisation of devolution, however, we observe an increase in the similarity of the issue profiles of the same parties in general and in Scottish and Welsh elections, as well as among different parties competing in the same regional elections.     

Choosing between Impossible Alternatives: Creating a New Constituency Map for Wales, 2004

The allocation of at least 35 parliamentary constituencies to Wales in the 1944 House of Commons (Redistribution of Seats) Act meant that Wales was over-represented in the House of Commons. Subsequent decisions by the Boundary Commission for Wales, operating within a set of mutually contradictory rules, increased the number of Welsh seats to 40 and exacerbated the country's over-representation in the House, relative to the situation for England.
In its Fifth Periodic Review, the Boundary Commission has determined not to recommend any further growth in the number of Welsh constituencies, but its method of doing this has created substantial inequalities within the country, with the area around Cardiff significantly under-represented relative to the situation in North Wales. These inequalities will also apply to the Welsh Assembly. The political parties did not challenge these recommendations, presumably because they felt that their interests were best served by the inequalities. Analysis shows that alternative sets of recommendations would have been somewhat more egalitarian, but within an overall structure of unfairness guaranteed by the unworkable rules under which the Commissions must operate.     

Welsh Devolution and the Union: Reform Debates after Brexit

The survey addresses three key reform debates relating to devolution in Wales. These concern first, the case for the further devolution of powers, notably those over criminal justice and policing; second, the defence of Wales’ devolved powers in the context of Brexit; and third, the rooting of devolution in new constitutional ideals, primarily the Welsh government’s preferred model of the UK as a voluntary association of nations, or the alternative pressed by the independence movement. In each case, there are strong pressures within Wales for resolutions which sustain and develop devolution; and in the case of independence, have the potential, with reform debates elsewhere, to transform the UK Union. However, there are also grounds for reflecting on the contested nature of further change, the long road that a case for independence may yet have to travel, and the interests of UK government.     

Tremors from afar: negotiating the rise of Donald Trump on Sweden’s populist right

ABSTRACT

While commentators often describe transnational far-right populism as a unified movement, Teitelbaum’s article investigates incongruities among anti-immigrant, nationalist actors in two locations today. It focuses on the implications of Donald Trump’s success for the Sweden Democrats, highlighting party leaders’ inability to establish a coherent position on the US Republican. Their struggle derives from Trump’s mismatch with the party’s emerging reformist ideals. Accordingly, the public sphere analysed in this article provides insight, not only into the internal divisions and fraught history of the Sweden Democrats, but also into the dynamic nature of contemporary right-wing populist movements in the West.     

FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS ON THE REFERENDUM: THE EVIDENCE OF THE WELSH VOTE ON DEVOLUTION

Abstract: Developments during the 1970s, suggest that the referendum might become a more permanent feature of British politics. The Welsh referendum provides additional evidence as to its operational characteristics, which indicates: that organized interests can play a significant, if not crucial, role; that the polarization of issues on a'Yes-No'axis promotes confusion; that external events and, in particular, the government's standing, intrude on the central issue; and that it fails to resolve problems, sometimes even in the short run. Despite this the referendum is likely to be used as and when party political expedients require.     

Beyond issue diversification: N-VA and the communitarisation of political,economic and cultural conflicts in Belgium

Since the early 2000s, the Flemish nationalist party New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) has experienced a burgeoning growth. Paradoxically, for a stateless nationalist and regionalist party (SNRP), this performance has occurred without major changes in mass support for independence and only ambiguous ones for more regional autonomy, which suggests that the party appeals to different electoral subgroups through a vote-maximisation strategy of issue diversification. Providing an in-depth analysis of the multi-dimensional ideology of N-VA, this article contributes to the literature on SNRPs by arguing that N-VA has gone beyond issue diversification through a strategy of ‘issue communitarisation’ that consists not only in expanding its agenda beyond the centre–periphery cleavage, but rather in framing all other policy issues explicitly in (sub-state) nationalist terms. According to this strategy, all major conflicts on political power, social redistribution and cultural identity are systematically represented as being based on an unresolvable and overarching centre–periphery antagonism between Flanders and francophone Belgium.     

Stirring up apathy? Political disengagement and the media in the 2003 Welsh Assembly elections

This paper examines the media coverage of the 2003 Welsh Assembly elections in the context of the wider academic debate about the media's relationship with political engagement. It draws on evidence to suggest a potentially positive relationship between media use and voting, before arguing that this relationship was limited in Wales in 2003, due both to the limited penetration of the Welsh media in Wales and the election's low prominence in this media. It then examines the way in which ‘the apathy story’ dominated media coverage. Such an emphasis wrongly equated apathy with discontent with the devolution process in Wales, and dominated the issues which the public were represented as discussing, while space was rarely given to their views on policy issues. Bad news about electoral disengagement was much more likely to be emphasised than good news, while emphasis on public ‘apathy’ offered a typically negative simplification of political attitudes among the electorally disengaged. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications     

Beyond Unionism versus Nationalism: the Rise of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has always been a polity noted for its strong links between national identity, religion, and voting, and acute British unionist versus Irish nationalist divisions. The constitutional question of whether Northern Ireland should be part of the UK or a united Ireland dominates. Yet, recent surveys have suggested a sizeable and growing section of its electorate declares itself neither unionist nor nationalist. This development may have assisted the growth of the centrist Alliance Party, which rejects unionist and nationalist identities and claims to be neutral on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status. Alliance doubled its vote across three elections in 2019 and is now the third largest party in the region. This article examines the importance of ideological dealignment relative to other factors, such as Alliance’s opposition to Brexit, in explaining the rise of a non-binary party in a divided society.     

The Welsh Devolution Referendum

This article seeks to place the 1997 referendum on the Labour government's plans to establish an elected Welsh Assembly into the context of the debate on devolution as it has developed in Wales since 1979, when broadly similar proposals were overwhelmingly rejected by the Welsh electorate. The authors argue that given the belated decision to hold the referendum, the particular difficulties created by the Welsh political landscape, and the fact that there was no real attempt to develop a broad-based consensus behind the proposals before the 1997 general election, the fact that the proposals were finally approved – albeit by the narrowest of margins – represents a substantial achievement for the pro-devolutionists.     

Nationalism and party competition in the Basque country and Catalonia

The party systems which have developed in Catalonia and the Basque Country since Franco's death are distinguished from the Spanish one, and also from each other, in three areas: the leading role of the largest nationalist member of each; the secondary one of Spain's ruling Socialist Party; and the presence of smaller nationalist parties. Analysis of these three factors shows that, despite appearances, the systems’ initial structures did indeed reflect the historical nature of nationalism in the two regions. It also indicates how the dynamics of competition within them have in turn affected the nature of contemporary nationalism.     

Structure and Strategies: Two Faces of Civic Activism in India

Abstract

This paper explains the success of civic actors in achieving their aims by reference to their organizational structure. Based on a comparison of a religious nationalist movement and a women's movement in South Asia, I argue that organizational structure is closely linked to the success of a social movement. The lack of coordination and collaboration among women's groups in terms of mission and strategy has led to a perception of the overall movement as weak and marginal. The superior coordination of strategy and mission within the religious nationalist movement have allowed it to effectively use its resources to cause great changes in Indian society.     

Proportional Representation in the Welsh Assembly

The proposed rule for electing members to the Welsh Assembly gives each voter two votes, to cast at the Parliamentary constituency level, and at the bigger European constituency level. Half of the members are to be elected for the Assembly by a form of proportional representation, where party support is calculated by aggregating the two votes. The voters will be allowed to cast the second vote for a different party than the one for which they voted at the parliamentary level. This additional degree of freedom can frustrate the objective of obtaining better correspondence between party support and the number ofseats.     

Changing the Boundaries but Keeping the Disproportionality: The Electoral Impact of the Fifth Periodical Reviews by the Parliamentary Boundary Commissions for England and Wales

Parliamentary boundary reviews in the UK are undertaken to remove — as far as is practicable — inter-constituency variations in the number of electors. Their impact has almost invariably favoured the Conservative party — largely because population shifts between reviews tend to favour Labour with the movement of electors away from the inner cities and old industrial areas. That has been the case again with the Fifth Periodical Reviews conducted by the Boundary Commissions for England and Wales. The next general election will thus be slightly easier for the Conservatives to win than if the boundaries used for the 2005 contest were to be retained. But not much easier. Recent elections have seen very substantial biases operating in the translation of votes into seats favouring Labour. The biases are the result of the interaction of several geographies — of constituency size, abstentions and party support- only one of which (size) is directly tackled by the reviews. Unless those other geographies are changed the next two or three UK general elections are likely to see a continuation of these marked biases.     

Coalition and Minority Government in Wales: Lessons for the United Kingdom?

Post‐devolution Wales has had experience of a variety of different types of government and a variety of different parties in government; single party rule with one party gaining an overall majority of the seats (Labour, 2003–05), minority administrations (Labour, 1999–2000, 2005–07) and coalitions between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (2000–03) and Labour and Plaid Cymru (2007 to date). This article explores the experiences of both minority and coalition government in Wales, focusing most notably on the convoluted process of coalition formation in 2007, before proceeding to draw lessons for the United Kingdom coalition government based upon developments in Wales.     

A Note on the Electoral Rules for the Welsh Assembly

A recent article in this journal highlights,using simulated data, potential paradoxes inherent in thesystem of election to the Welsh assembly. This paper examinesthe data for the assembly elections held in 1999 to illustratethe occurrence of yet another paradoxical outcome, theelection of the first ever First Minister due to a fall insupport for his own party.     

Office and Policy at the Expense of Votes: Plaid Cymru and the One Wales Government

This paper will examine Plaid Cymru's experience in government from 2007 to 2011. Drawing on literature on autonomist parties, parties in government for the first time, and Strøm and Müller's policy/office/votes framework, the paper examines where strategic 'trade-offs’ were made and what the consequences of such trade-offs were. The paper takes a qualitative approach, using semi-structured interview and documentary data. The paper finds that Plaid Cymru valued the policy-seeking potential of office at the expense of vote-seeking ones because of the importance of 'autonomist' goals, namely the 2011 referendum which saw primary law-making powers granted to the Welsh Assembly. Furthermore, the experience of governmental office exposed organizational vulnerabilities in the party's leadership structures which undermined the ability to construct an effective vote-winning strategy at the 2011 Welsh election, where the party lost four seats.