The ‘Modi Wave’: Behind the Results of the 2014 General Elections in India

Narendra Modi’s spectacular victory over Congress in the 2014 Indian general elections was made possible by many factors. However, the main and overarching cause of Modi’s victory was the process which, starting in 2009 with the backing of the Indian corporate sector, built up the image of Modi as a kind of fearless and unblemished hero who, having raised his home state, Gujarat, to an extraordinary level of economic development, was now in a position to replicate the same feat at the all-India level. ‘Modi’s legend’ first conquered the middle class’ imagination and, then, was spread among the masses and, transversally, among first-time voters by that same middle class, with the help of RSS volunteers. Thus, a juggernaut was created and deployed with devastating effects, not only against Congress but, as shown by the cases of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, against some of India’s strongest regional parties.     

东盟决策机制与东盟一体化

东盟的决策机制深具亚洲特点,东盟首脑会议和部长会议,尤其是外交部长和经济部长会议是东盟的主要决策机构;这些机构奉行全体一致原则、不干涉内政原则、y—x原则和协商原则,充分体现了东盟各国追求平等、互相尊重而又灵活应变的精神;颇具特色的决策机制有效地推动了东南亚国家的一体化,但随着东盟的扩大和深化,这一决策机制也暴露出沟通不足、效率低下等问题,如何改进决策机制,乃是东盟新世纪发展的重要课题。     

Liar,Liar, Pants on Fire: How Fact-Checking Influences Citizens’ Reactions to Negative Advertising

Electoral campaigns are dynamic and an important change in recent elections is the growth of fact-checking; the assessment of the truthfulness of political advertisements by news media organizations and watchdog groups. In this article, we examine the role that fact-checks play in shaping citizens’ views of negative commercials and political candidates. We rely on an Internet survey experiment where we vary people’s exposure to negative advertisements and a follow-up fact-check article (i.e., no fact-check, accurate fact-check, inaccurate fact-check). The results of our experiment show that fact-checks influence people’s assessments of the accuracy, usefulness, and tone of negative political ads. Furthermore, sophisticated citizens and citizens with low tolerance for negative campaigning are most responsive to fact-checks. The fact-checks also sway citizens’ likelihood of accepting the claims made in the advertisements. Finally, negative fact-checks (e.g., fact-checks challenging the truthfulness of the claims of the negative commercial) are more powerful than positive fact-checks.     

Ties that bind? The rise and decline of ethno-regional partisanship in Malawi, 1994–2009

In the first three elections following Malawi's return to democracy in 1993, voting patterns displayed a clear ethno-regional pattern. Then in 2009 the regional pattern broke down in dramatic fashion, with the incumbent President, Bingu wa Mutharika, attracting majority support across all three regions. This article first examines whether ethnic identities were at the root of Malawi's ethno-regional electoral pattern. Our tests show that while ethnic identities were associated with partisan attachments in some areas, regional patterns were more consistently related to other factors, particularly views of the government's performance and the inclusiveness of the ruling party. We then examine the breakdown of the regional pattern, drawing on trend analysis of public opinion data from 1999 to 2008. We show that by 2009 the majority of Malawians in all three regions had come to hold positive views of Mutharika's performance and had come to see his government as inclusive. We conclude, therefore, that shifts in patterns of partisanship had more to do with political factors – Mutharika's symbolic and substantive policies during this first term – than ethnic identities. Malawi reminds us that incumbents, when faced with incentives to construct multi-ethnic support bases, can use the power of the state to reach out across ethnic political boundaries and re-order supposedly entrenched patterns of partisanship.     

A Review of: “Free Press vs. Fair Trial: Examining Publicity's Role in Trial Outcomes,by Jon Bruschke and William E. Loges”

Using data from the 2002 Wisconsin Advertising Project and a Democratic direct mailing firm, we ask if candidates publicly court African American and Hispanic voters through the inclusion of these groups in their campaign advertisements or through appeals to their substantive policy interests. We find evidence that Democratic and Republican candidates make symbolic and substantive appeals only when these appeals are very unlikely to be viewed by White voters. These findings lend credence to studies that conclude that candidates are hesitant to publicly court minority voters due to concerns that such activities may harm their existing electoral coalitions, particularly their standing with White voters.     

The Mahathir effect in Malaysia’s 2018 election: the role of credible personalities in regime transitions

The 14th Malaysian General Elections (Pilihanraya Umum, 14, PRU 14) in 2018 proved to be a watershed election as Barisan Nasional (National Front, BN) lost power for the first time in history. Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope, PH), led by former BN leader and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, captured the majority of parliamentary seats. This article analyses the impact of Mahathir specifically, and credible personalities in general, in unseating dominant one-party regimes. I argue that credible personalities are vital in causing transitions in dominant one-party systems. Explanations on transitions from authoritarian regimes in the literature have typically revolved around incumbent weakness and opposition strength. While dissatisfaction toward the regime is a necessary condition for transition, it is not sufficient. Personalities which can adequately appeal to the masses are important to bridge the credibility gap which the opposition may otherwise have to grapple with. Mahathir’s presence in the opposition was crucial to PH’s victory, as he provided the credibility boost which the opposition needed. This was particularly important for Malay voters. This study is situated within the literature on parties, elections and democratization.