我国通货紧缩的体制根源探析

我国 1997年底以来出现了有效需求不足型的通货紧缩 ,经济景气度明显下降 ,理论界对此进行了热烈讨论。总体上说 ,多数人是从总量矛盾、结构矛盾或外部影响的角度加以分析的。但笔者认为 ,外部冲击与体制约束是造成当前通货紧缩的深层原因 ,其中前者为诱因 ,后者是关键。一、当前我国通货紧缩的形势判断通货紧缩是与通货膨胀相对应的概念。通货膨胀是指一定时期内物价总水平的持续上涨现象 ,而通货紧缩则指价格总水平的持续下降现象 ,形成的原因或为重大技术进步致使生产成本全面下降 ,或为有效需求不足引起的价格不断下降。就全球已发生的…     

关于价格调控的思考

价格调控是我国宏观调控的重要内容，其主要任务是由宏观经济运行的主要矛盾决定的。改革开放以来，特别是进入９０年代以后，我国宏观经济运行的主要矛盾，是经济增长与通货膨胀的矛盾。因此，把抑制通货膨胀作为当时价格调控的主要任务是必要的，实践证明也是正确的。但是，近两年我国宏观经济运行的主要矛盾已变为经济增长与通货紧缩的矛盾，价格调控的主要任务已经转移到治理通货紧缩上来。这个变化告诉我们，在宏观调控中必须全面、准确地规定价格调控的任务，即既要抑制通货膨胀，又要克服通货紧缩。无论是通货膨胀还是通货紧缩，都是…     

我国经济通货膨胀和通货紧缩并存的可能性分析——基于经济发展方式转变的总供给视角

我国经济发展中存在着通货膨胀和通货紧缩双威胁的隐忧.利用宏观经济学总需求一总供给模型分析,在总需求不断增加的情况下,总供给的质量不高最终会导致总供给的数量下降,从而使我国经济面临短期通货膨胀--中期通货紧缩的可能.我国经济发展方式要实现成功转变,总供给质量的提高是根本.     

对我国通货紧缩问题的再认识

经过改革开放２０年的持续快速发展，我国国民经济总量关系已经发生了根本性变化，买方市场几乎包含了所有商品生产和流通流域，伴随而来的是从未有过的长时间、大范围、大幅度的商品与服务降价。过去人们几乎只知道“通货膨胀”概念，并不断地与通货膨胀作斗争，而今人们关注的焦点却是“通货紧缩”。那么，我们应如何认识和抑制我国目前出现的通货紧缩呢？本文试加探析。 一、通货紧缩的内涵 有关通货紧缩的定义，国内目前有三种不同的观点：一种观点认为，通货紧缩是物价的普遍持续下降，这种观点和国外经济学界关于通货紧缩的主流观点比…     

略论金融混业经营趋势

一、世界金融发展趋势随着高新技术的发展 ,尤其是计算机和信息技术的发展 ,全球的经济增长方式将发生根本性变化。金融作为现代经济的核心 ,在新经济时代 ,金融发展的大趋势之一就是金融全球化进程的加速。金融全球化会降低融资成本 ,为发展中国家增加资金来源 ,促进金融管理和运作水平的提高 ;同时 ,金融全球化也将扩大金融风险 ,因此 ,对发展中国家来说 ,金融全球化既是机遇 ,也是挑战。国际金融业的风险不仅是信用风险 ,还有利率风险、通货膨胀风险、通货紧缩风险、汇率风险、金融衍生工具风险、政治风险等 ,因此 ,新世纪、新经济背景下…     

论通货紧缩的国际传递

自1998年我国出现经济增长率下降、物价总水平负增长的情况开始,通货紧缩成为中国经济在世纪之交面对的重大现实问题。目前,虽然我国已暂时摆脱了通货紧缩的困扰,但这并不意味通货紧缩的形成根源也消失了,因此,我们应如同研究通货膨胀一样去研究通货紧缩,从而系统地掌握其运行机制与特征,为防治通货紧缩积累经验。而当我们系统的分析通货紧缩的成因后,我们会发现通货紧缩的国际传递已经成为一国发生通货紧缩的重要因素之一。     

2005宏观调控观察 延长新一轮增长稳定期

今年宏观经济总量关系变化的不确定性加大,宏观调控必须同时注意总量关系失衡的两种情况:即通货膨胀和通货紧缩。     

地方政府行为与通货膨胀

地方政府行为与通货膨胀周蕊自我国推行市场化经济体制改革以来，由于旧体制的市场化转轨，组织功能的市场化转换和宏观政策的市场化调整，使我国国民经济搭上了高速增长的快车。然而随之而来的一个问题则是困扰人们的周期性通货膨胀。笔者认为，通货膨胀是多种经济因素综...     

金融政策如何促进经济持续稳定发展

近年来，金融体制改革取得突破性进展，银行、保险和证券实行了分业经营、分业监管，金融业在改革中稳步发展。在当前国际经济环境欠佳，国内需求不旺的情况下，金融政策应在维护经济秩序、刺激经济增长方面发挥重要作用。协调金融与经济体制改革促进经济持续稳定发展金融体制改革与经济体制改革协调配套，才能增加有效需求，促进经济发展。金融调控政策效力递减既与金融宏观调控体制不完善有关，也与经济体制改革新举措有关。在深化经济体制改革中同时推出的住房制度改革、医疗制度改革和教育制度改革，大大加快了改革进程。这些改革措施同…     

推进金融体制改革刻不容缓

金融是现代市场经济的灵魂。中国改革与发展已经推进到了极其关键的体制攻坚和加速转型阶段,随着我国经济发展阶段的推进和体制改革的深化,金融发展和金融改革已经成为我国现阶段经济发展和经济体制改革最重要、最艰巨的任务。今年四月份以来,温州接二连三地发生中小企业老板＂跑路＂甚至跳楼等恶性事件,     

China's dualist model on technological catching up: a comparative perspective

Abstract

The central question of this paper is whether China can go beyond simple technological transfer and toward innovation in this age of globalization. By adopting an institutionalist perspective, this paper argues that China has developed a dualist model during its economic transitional period in which the foreign sector has been isolated from domestic firms, while the domestic industrial sectors have also failed to develop organic linkages among themselves to facilitate technological learning and generate innovation. This paper discusses four major institutional arrangements that deeply influence China's technological development – the institutional logic of economic reform, the state's industrial policy, the financial system and the industrial structure. It suggests that, owing to these institutional elements, China has neither developed economies of scale, as compared with the South Korean case, nor has it built up a network-type of economy similar to its Taiwanese counterpart in order to generate the mechanisms needed for technological innovation.     

Institutional Reforms and Democratization in Korea: the Case of the Kim Young Sam Administration, 1993–1998

This article examines the nature of political and institutional reform initiatives that have been carried out under former president Kim Young Sam. How effective have they been in consolidating democracy in Korea? Specifically, we examine why the Kim Young Sam government's political reform campaigns have been limited, and explore the impact of this limitation on his institutional reform initiatives and the process of consolidation of democracy in Korea. We argue that Kim Young Sam's initial political reform campaigns have contributed to creating a favorable environment for his institutional reform efforts. However, limitations of these initial political reform campaigns such as political funding and bribery scandals have hampered institutional reforms. We also argue that these difficulties were intensified by public dissatisfaction with Korea's poor economic performance and International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial assistance. As a result, Kim Young Sam's moral legitimacy as a civilian and reform-oriented leader toward the public has totally evaporated. Therefore, experiences under the Kim Young Sam administration are just trials and errors of democratization that show another failure in presidential leadership in Korea. These experiences will negatively affect the consolidation process of democracy in Korea by increasing the public's distrust of government as a whole. As a result, democratic consolidation in Korea is being delayed.     

Urban government and market reforms in China

Chinese reformers wish through their economic programme to create a new form of developmental state in China and a new relationship between state and economy. This paper examines these issues through a study of the impact of Chinese economic reforms on the structure and behaviour of local government, focusing on urban government at the district level. It looks at three aspects of the issue—the trend towards financial decentralization, institutional changes in district administration and changes in the relationship between local government and the urban economy. It concludes (contrary to arguments which regard bureaucratic response to the reforms as one of pure inertia and obstruction) that urban local government has changed in several major ways, the most obvious being a trend towards institutional expansion and proliferation. From the point of view of the reform process, some institutional changes have been positive, others negative, resulting in a ‘dualistic’ state which contains elements of both old and new forms of developmental state. There is a need for systematic analysis of the specific future needs and evolution of China's urban government which would guide a process of politico-administrative reform comparable to the current economic reform.     

Market Visions: The Interplay of Ideas and Institutions in Chinese Financial Restructuring

In studies of transitional systems, negative economic outcomes are often associated with 'partial' or 'stalled' reform – a reform that signifies an institutional departure from standard market operation. Such departures are often traced to socio-political contestation or political preferences. Focusing on China's intertwined financial and enterprise reforms, this paper challenges that approach on two fronts. First, it argues that institutional change and resultant economic outcomes are driven less by contestation than by societally held assumptions regarding the nature of economic causation in market contexts. The analytical lenses that actors employ to understand their environment shape expectations about how markets function, influence the manner by which economic problems are diagnosed, and profoundly affect the ultimate institutional evolution of the system. Second, such lenses are necessitated by substantial uncertainties at the theoretical level regarding market function – uncertainties that make characterizations of economic behavior as 'irrational' highly problematic.     

地方行政体制改革的模式与路径选择

当前地方行政体制改革的一项重要举措是推行"省直管县"改革。然而,"省直管县"改革不仅是减少地方行政层级、推进地方财政体制改革的操作性环节,还涉及中国现代化道路的选择与各地经济增长点的选择。推行"省直管县"改革的基本"条件"需要展开深入研究。通过采用快速聚类分析的方法,在对26个省区分类研究的基础上,提出:不同类型省区的基本条件存在很大差异,应该依据各自的发展阶段与特点,分类指导,分类改革。     

创新体制从源头上预防和治理腐败

“一把手”腐败、用人腐败、司法腐败、公贿和行政腐败等政治领域腐败现象日益突出。制度反腐败的重点应当从经济领域转向政治领域,通过继续推动政治体制改革与创新从源头上预防和治理腐败。其中,党政领导体制改革、干部人事制度改革、司法体制改革、政府间管理体制改革和行政管理体制改革在遏止政治和行政腐败方面具有特别重要的意义。     

Financial Regulation in the United States: Lessons from History

History is institutional memory writ large. One looks at economic history to see what problems recur, what causes them to recur, what solutions have worked best in the past, and which interventions have made the problems worse. The authors argue that a moderately complex interaction between the workings of the financial sector, the way in which the political system is organized, and the administration of regulation makes perfect regulation of the financial sector extremely unlikely. Many of these problems arise as a result of conflicting incentives for those participating in and regulating the financial field. The authors find that some proposed solutions have improved matters but have costs, and that some proposed solutions have actually worsened problems in the financial sector.

Peoples and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it.
— Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, 1837

     

全球经济进入"低增长陷阱"背景下的中国财税改革研究

随着全球经济进入低增长阶段,政府宏观政策的多样化和有效性在经济周期中的调控作用不断提高.政府进行的新一轮财税制度改革既是应对全球经济低增长、国内经济换挡、中美贸易战等的重要举措,也是延续分税制改革、缓解土地财政压力和降低地方债务风险的必然结果.新一轮财税制度改革通过维持增值税"五五分享"比例以稳定和调整增值税留抵退税分担机制,后移消费税征收环节并稳步下划地方以保障地方财政收入和提高地方财政支出能力,减税降费以刺激企业创新,合理化收入分配制度以扩大内需,最终实现经济的稳定增长.新一轮财税制度改革取得预期效果,还需要完善转移支付制度、预算管理制度、债务管理制度、信息披露制度等,保障政策落到实处.     

政府在日本金融制度演化中的作用

作者认为,日本金融行政的思想滥觞于明治维新以来的近现代经济发展史,日本政府通过学习西方金融制度引导本国金融制度的变革方向,在制度实施过程中各种关系的博弈过程形成了日本金融制度演化的路径。这种依靠政府力量推动的金融制度演化方式是造成日本完成经济追赶后无法赶超的一个主要原因。     

Wasting a Crisis? Democracy and Markets in Britain after 2007

The banking crisis of 2007-2008 briefly threatened to overturn a system of market government that had lasted for nearly three decades—a system designed to minimise democratic control over markets. The crisis drew politicians once more into financial politics and exposed bankers and banking institutions to popular criticism and control. But the development of regulatory debates, and of the institutions designed to manage the crisis, have combined to avert this threat to the established order. The crisis is being 'wasted': it is failing to produce radical reforms. The paper establishes the intellectual and institutional origins of this failure, and argues that, while the reform window is closing, it is not yet fully shut: there exists yet scope for radical argument and popular mobilisation in the creation of a financial system with fewer pathological features.