欧盟东扩对中东欧国家的负面影响分析

在研究欧盟东扩对东扩国的经济影响时 ,很多研究学者过分强调了东扩可能给中东欧国家带来的经济收益。本文认为 ,欧盟东扩是一个利益重新整合的过程 ,因此欧盟东扩在让中东欧国家受益的同时 ,也给其带来了很多负面影响。本文主要从欧盟现有政策中的共同就业及劳工政策、共同环境保护政策和共同农业政策等三个角度探讨欧盟东扩对中东欧国家可能产生的负面影响 ,并集中考虑东扩国今后应采取的发展策略。     

欧盟、北美自由贸易区的发展及其对中国—东盟自由贸易区的启示

欧盟、北美自由贸易区以及于2002年11月签署的中国—东盟自由贸易区协议是世界上三大区域经济合作区。欧盟的发展经验和北美自由贸易区的成功运作 ,对刚启动的中国—东盟自由贸易区在合作过程中克服各种障碍 ,顺利向前推进具有诸多的启示。一、欧盟政策的主要内容和成效分析(一)欧盟政策的主要内容1.关税同盟是欧共体/欧盟经济一体化的起点和基础。根据欧洲煤钢共同体6国于1958年1月1日签署的《罗马条约》,关税同盟的目标是 :取消商品的关税和限额 ,实现商品流通自由化 ;在共同体以外建立共同关税税率 ,执行共同的关税税立法。成员国采用循…     

欧盟能源一体化进程及前景

从欧洲煤钢共同体、原子能共同体的建立至今,经过约60年的发展,欧盟能源一体化已取得重要进展。欧盟能源一体化缘起于欧洲政治经济合作的全面发展,也将因欧盟一体化的深入而获得更大提升。为实现能源一体化的战略目标,欧盟实施了共同能源政策,建立了统一的能源机构,整合了内部能源市场,其共同能源外交政策也初具雏形。今后,欧盟能源一体化将不断迈向历史新高,在共同能源战略、共同能源市场和共同能源外交等方面都将实现新的突破。     

东北亚地区国际劳务合作对东北振兴的影响

通过国际劳务合作促进劳动力的国际流动 ,是实现劳动力资源有效配置的一个重要途径。加强东北地区的国际劳务合作 ,对于缓解东北地区的就业压力、提高劳动力素质具有重要的意义。目前 ,东北地区参与东北亚国际劳务合作的规模基本上处于稳定发展的态势 ,具有波动性较大、合作的领域比较集中、收益不高的特点 ,这与东北地区的社会经济环境以及劳务接收国的政策密切相关。但东北地区参与东北亚国际劳务合作的潜力还是非常巨大的 ,为此 ,国家应给予东北地区必要的政策支持 ,积极推动东北亚地区建立合理的国际劳务合作机制 ,加强劳动力培训方面的合作 ,引进专业技术及管理人才 ,促进东北振兴的实现。     

论欧盟共同防务与安全政策中的俄罗斯因素

冷战时期苏联的军事威胁是影响欧共体共同的安全政策的主要因素。冷战后 ,俄罗斯对欧盟安全的威胁不再是当务之急 ,但仍然是影响欧盟共同的安全政策的一个重要因素。冷战时期西欧共同安全政策更多地局限于防守 ,而冷战后则表现出扩张的态势。目前俄罗斯支持欧盟的共同安全政策和建立欧洲独立防务的努力。欧盟共同防务和安全的发展 ,在相当程度上取决于欧盟与俄罗斯关系的互信与否。由于欧盟与俄罗斯的合作是建立在俄罗斯虚弱、而又不能忽视其在欧洲安全问题上作用的基础上的 ,因此它们在欧洲安全问题上将既合作又竞争 ,既相互需要又相互斗争 ,妥协与矛盾并存。     

东北亚区域经济合作新构想——关于建立中、日、韩紧密型经济合作体的探讨

东北亚区域经济合作以地方国际化为主导 ,但有相当的局限性 ,这使其难以成为区域经济合作与发展的主导模式。从中、日、韩互补性的物质基础、共同的市场主义原则和电子信息技术基础来看 ,在中、日、韩之间建立紧密型的区域经济合作体是必要的 ,也是可能的。从现实看 ,三国缔结自由贸易协定 ,建立自由贸易区是比较现实、可行的     

冷战后欧盟与阿拉伯国家的经贸合作

冷战后欧盟与阿拉伯国家的经贸交往主要是在两大架构下进行。一个是南地中海伙伴关系框架，另一个是欧盟与海湾合作委员会的合作关系框架。在这两个框架下，双方的经贸合作不仅实现了数量上的增长，而且还逐步建立起一套经贸交往机制，建立合作机构、定期或不定期召开合作与对话会议、规划和实施合作项目等。     

欧盟在巴以冲突中的外交政策

欧盟主张依靠国际合作机制 ,以和平手段解决国际争端 ,目的在于获取更多的有利于自身发展的政治资源和经济利益。在对待巴以冲突问题上 ,欧盟的外交政策主要表现在 :与巴、以两方关系由经济领域向政治领域拓展 ;强调依靠国际合作机制 ,通过合作与对话解决争端。欧盟在巴以冲突中的外交政策为其赢得了较好的国际声誉。欧盟希望靠自身强大的经济实力、共同的外交路线和独立的防务能力 ,努力实现它“说话算数”的世界一极的目标。     

欧盟共同外交和安全政策的由来、机制及问题

美苏冷战结构是战后西欧开启政治一体化进程的重要动因, 而90 年代初, 欧盟共同 外交和安全政策的确立则是这一进程逐渐发展的结果。欧盟共同外交和安全政策支柱无论在机制 上还是在效率上与70 年代初建立的欧洲政治合作机制比较起来都有了很大的突破和进展, 但政府 间主义仍然是其基本性质。目前的欧盟共同外交和安全政策支柱存在着许多问题, 其中两个重要 问题是国家主权与超国家权力之间的矛盾和其运作机制本身的制度缺陷。     

东盟国家的安全合作及其影响

东盟国家安全合作的目的是借助合作,实现优势互补,提高军队的作战能力,以镇压内乱和加强边境联防,共同抵御边界和海上的各种威胁。东盟成员间的安全合作主要围绕东盟地区论坛、成员国建立信任措施、南中国海争端、地区低烈度威胁及军事和防务等领域开展。东盟的安全合作是积极防御性质的合作,它将有利于亚太多边安全机制的建立。     

Inter-Korean relations and the roles of the US and of the EU

The North Korean nuclear standoff has escalated since North Korea let slip that it was developing nuclear weapons while James Kelly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was visiting Pyongyang in October 2002. The Bush administration has acknowledged that the United States will not discount a preemptive military strike on the suspected nuclear development facilities, and North Korea has stood firm against any pressure to halt its nuclear development from the international community. Dialogue and meetings for international cooperation among the major countries concerned, including Korea, the U.S., Japan and China, have been activated to resolve the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, especially after the U.S. pronounced an end to its war against Iraq in early May of this year. In the middle of the rapidly changing situation on the Korean peninsula, the inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation initiated by the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung administration and followed by the Roh Moo-hyun administrations Policy of Peace and Prosperity are not separable from the nuclear situation. This paper follows recent developments of inter-Korean relations, illustrates South Koreas stance on the issue and suggests the EUs role on the nuclear issue. This is a revised version of the paper presented at the Asia-EU Journalists Seminar organized by the Asia Europe Foundation and the Korea Press Foundation (KPF), held in Brussels, Belgium, May 22 2003. Financial support from the KPF is gratefully acknowledged.     

海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败

国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。     

The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible

In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only slowed down the process of rapprochement, but also increased EU concern. At a time when cooperation becomes a necessity rather than a choice, Libya is now down-spiralling into implosion at the levels of security, bureaucracy and economy, to the point where it cannot absorb the offers being made.     

从斯大林功过看苏联兴亡——评《苏联兴亡史论》

一　对斯大林功过的评价要与时俱进要考察苏联兴亡的历史进程、总结苏联兴亡的历史经验 ,首先就要探究从列宁到戈尔巴乔夫苏联历届党政首脑的理论、路线、体制和实践的演变问题 ,尤其是涉及对斯大林功过的评价问题。因为斯大林执政时间最长 ,而且苏联的社会主义制度主要是在斯大林执政的 3 0年间( 1 92 3～ 1 95 3年 )建成并且得到巩固的 ,随后 3 0多年苏联斯大林模式没有发生什么大变化。如果我们肯定斯大林是“功大于过”,那么就要肯定苏联的社会主义模式基本上是成功的、优秀的 ,尽管难免还有一些弊端 ,那只要经过小修小补就能更加显示优…     

Campaign Advertising and the Stimulation and Activation of the Authoritarian Personality

This research examines whether authoritarianism can be stimulated and activated by politicians. The traditional belief is that psychological traits are basically quasipermanent structures that consistently determine behavior, but newer research suggests that these traits can be stimulated. This research tests whether campaigns can stimulate traits with targeted messages. I do so by exposing subjects in an experiment to political television advertising that was designed to stimulate known correlates of authoritarianism, such as fear. The results show that authoritarianism is stimulated in treatment groups that watched advertising designed to invoke threat and the strong-father metaphor and the treatment effect is greater on conservatives. I also show that watching these commercials leads to an activation of authoritarianism that influences its predictive power over support for torture. This suggests that politicians can use emotional appeals to stimulate advantageous personality traits, and that these ads also influence the public's attitudes through activation.     

China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not Chinais a responsible member of the organization and how compliantChina is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficultiesfaced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying toadjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theoryof compliance in international relations from the perspectivesof neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism,and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanismsused to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the UnitedStates and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanismand the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result ismixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China hasbeen but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has triedhard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, thoughmuch remains to be done. The most severe tests will come inthe next few years when China's financial and service sectorswill have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.     

Globalization and the Reform of the International Financial and Monetary Systems

The outbreak of the global financial cdsis has called into question U.S.-style ＂financial capitalism.＂ Protectionism, currency multilateralism, decentralization of financial decision-making power and the nationalism of resources are gaining ground. The emerging economies are on the rise. The world power order is becoming multi-polar. Relations between countries are growing more diverse. The global governance model is undergoing fundamental changes. Global governance mechanisms, which are more representative and reflective of the diverse interests （such as the G20 and the UN climate change conference）, along with a reform of the international monetary system, will also help shape the future world order.     

美洲国家首脑会议与美洲自由贸易区的前景

自1994年至今共举行了4届美洲国家首脑会议,每届会议均与美国所倡议的美洲自由贸易区有密切关系。2005年11月在阿根廷举行的第四届首脑会议上,美洲国家围绕着是否重启美洲自由贸易区谈判问题产生分歧。一些拉美国家对在香港举行的WTO第六次部长级会议的成果不甚满意。美洲自由贸易区的前景不容乐观。     

Uneven and combined confusion: on the geopolitical origins of capitalism and the rise of the west

This article offers a critique of Alexander Anievas and Kerem Ni?ancio?lu’s How the West came to rule: the geopolitical origins of capitalism. We argue that while all historiography features a number of silences, shortcomings or omissions, the omissions in How the West came to rule lead to a mistaken view of the emergence of capitalism. There are two main issues to be confronted. First, we argue that Anievas and Ni?ancio?lu have an inadequate and misleading understanding of “capital” and “capitalism” that tilts them towards a theoretical stance that comes very close to arguing that everything caused capitalism while at the same time having no clear and convincing definition of “capital” or “capitalism”. Second, there are at least three omissions—particular to England/Britain within a geopolitical context—that should be discussed in any attempt to explain the development of capitalism: the financial revolution and the Bank of England; the transition to coal energy; and the capitalization of state power as it relates to war, colonialism and slavery. We conclude by calling for a connected-histories approach within the framework of capital as power.     

离岸市场的发展与人民币国际化的推进

人民币国际化自2009年正式启动以来,在跨境贸易结算等领域取得了很大进展,人民币离岸市场的建设也取得了一定成绩,但目前来看并没有充分发挥预期中的功能,这也引发了各界对人民币国际化模式的进一步讨论。原则上,由于我国资本项目尚未完全开放,离岸市场有助于克服人民币自由流动受限这一障碍。历史经验也表明,在一定条件下离岸市场能够有效地推进货币国际化。人民币国际化应当遵循贸易结算、离岸市场、资本输出、跨国企业四者并举的"中国模式",其中未来的离岸市场发展需要相应的条件和配套准备才能真正为人民币国际化提供引擎。