第二次西园寺公望内阁时的“增师”问题研究

第二次西园寺公望内阁时的"增师"问题,不仅导致了西园寺内阁的垮台,也成为第一次护宪运动的导火索。文章主要分析政友会支持的首相西园寺公望和以元老山县有朋为靠山的陆军围绕这一问题所展开的较量。通过探讨内阁、军部、元老等各势力间的博弈状况,从中管窥大正民主运动前夕日本政界主要政治势力间的矛盾斗争。     

近代日本内阁首相产生机制研究

近代日本在内阁更迭之际,拥有任命内阁首相大权的天皇,不直接指定继任首相,而是就首相人选咨询于一些特殊集团,这些集团将他们认为合适的人选奏荐给天皇,再由天皇降旨给被奏荐者,命其组阁,从而形成了独特的产生继任内阁首相时的奏荐机制。首先从制度层面分析这种奏荐机制何以能够产生和存在;进而分析参与奏荐的元老、以内大臣为首的宫中、重臣等势力的构成及性质;并依据不同时期参与奏荐的主体的演变,将奏荐的历史过程分为几个阶段进行阐述。通过奏荐产生内阁首相是近代日本有别于其它国家的一种政治现象,体现了近代日本天皇制非立宪的一面。     

尼泊尔2022年大选与未来政治稳定性分析

2022年11月20日尼泊尔举行新宪法颁布以来的第二次联邦议会选举,此次选举是在尼泊尔国内政党博弈加剧,新冠疫情叠加俄乌冲突导致的经济下行,以及尼印、尼美关系升温的背景下举行的。选举基本延续了2017年后尼“三足鼎立”的政党格局,尼共（毛主义中心）继续保持“关键第三党”地位。但也出现一些新的变化,如尼泊尔左翼政党席位整体受到削弱,民族独立党、民意党等新兴政党悄然崛起,以民族民主党为代表的保守势力有所回潮,马德西传统族群政党实力走弱,政党政治碎片化进一步加剧。导致此种结果的原因是多样的：原尼泊尔共产党内部奥利派与普拉昌达—内帕尔派矛盾激化导致的政党分裂使左翼政党实力与形象双双受损;大会党、尼共（联合马列）等传统大党老人政治问题突出,青年知识分子政治参与意识强烈;两大选举联盟因策略失误、意识形态差异、政党内部候选人之争、联盟形式松散而未达到预期目标;马德西传统族群政党频繁分裂且受到新兴政党和传统大党的双重挤压等。此次选举后,尼泊尔未来政治稳定性依然堪忧,仍存在总理辞职、议会倒阁致使政权更迭的可能。联合政府内部激烈的权力与职位利益之争、政策与意识形态之争,国家治理能力与民众期望的脱节,印度对...     

山县有朋的华族教育思想

在近代日本，继所谓“维新三杰”、“维新两卿”之后，领导维新事业、运筹国家大计者，当首推伊藤博文和山县有朋。其情形可谓“天下英雄，唯使君与操耳”~①。若以“维新双雄”称之，亦无不可。而在伊藤１９０９（明治４２）年被刺身亡之后，作为维新元老而位高望尊、身系国是者，则又当独推山县有朋。山县有朋（１８３８－１９２２年，天保９－大正１１年）一生历孝明、明治、大正天皇三朝，不仅是日本从近世到近代大转换期的历史见证人，而且是重要的参与者。尤其是在近代，他上承维新一代，下接大正一朝，出将入相，肩负重任近半个世纪…     

试论原敬内阁在日本近现代政治史上的地位

诞生于世界历史上的重要转折时期的原敬内阁(1918年9月29日——1921年11月5日),在国际国内多种因素的交互作用下在日本政治史上表现了许多和以往内阁不同的政治特色,因此,正确估计和评价原敬内阁在日本近现代政治史上的地位和作用,对我们进一步了解和把握日本近现代政治发展的脉络具有重要意义。 一、原敬政友会主导内阁产生的条件 1918年9月29日产生的原敬内阁,其产生与日本近现代历史、政治发展有着不可分割的联系,号称“平民宰相”的原敬内阁登场可以说绝不是偶然的,是明治维新以来日本历史、政治发展的必然结果。 1868年的日本明治维新推翻了德川幕府的封建统治,建立了以中下级武士为骨干的维新政权,但维新以后成立的新政权并不是一个成熟的资产阶级政权。维新以前,由于日本资本主义发展不充分,资产阶级力量微弱,明治维新主要是在内忧外患的压力下,由代表日本新兴豪农、豪商利益的中下级武士领导取得成功的。因此,维新以后中下级武士支掌国家政权,代行资产阶级意志,推行了一系列资产阶级性质的改革。这些改革无疑为日本近代资本     

左翼党及其对未来德国政党体制和政府组阁形势的影响

自左翼党在最近几次州议会选举中获胜以来，德国政党体制面临向五党制发展的持久性变革。本文首先基于分歧理论和政党竞争理论阐释新的左翼党在全德国范围内取得成功的原因，然后借助萨托利提出的判断政党重要性的标准和几种联合执政理论来分析左翼党的成功对于已有的地位稳固的政党、未来的政党竞争以及州和联邦层面政府组阁过程这三方面的影响。文章指出，左翼党由于其要挟潜力应被视作重要的政党，受其影响最大的是社民党，它必须选择是保持其适度中间偏左的定位，还是在与左翼党的竞争中重回左倾路线。而联合执政理论分析表明，社民党对待左翼党的态度对它将来能否有机会问鼎总理宝座起决定性作用。     

石原现象及其成因分析

石原现象是日本国内政治环境整体"右倾化"的具体表象之一,以其所代表的右翼势力为主要依托,其主要特点是思想上体现右倾与民族主义情结,行为上进行组织整合、企图问鼎国家政权,在政策主张上修宪、改变国家制度以及外交上的排外反华等;其产生与持续演化,受到日本的经济萧条、政党制度、社会思潮与日本文化的特性等诸多因素共同作用。石原现象不仅冲击了日本政局、毒化了日本社会,也严重损害了中日关系,必须引起重视与警惕。在安倍当政且日本第三极势力崛起后,注重研究石原现象是审视日本内政外交之间多元互动、应对日本在整个国际格局中非良性作用渗透的重要参照物。     

德国联邦议院党团法律制度研究

现代民主政治是政党民主政治,在议会制国家进一步体现为党团民主政治。在德国联邦议院中,党团是在议会组织、活动与资源分配中有着明确宪法地位的基本单位。党团合宪地位的确立,是在《基本法》完成了对经典宪政模式中贤人政治和整体人民观的批判、引入政党国家理论的基础上才实现的。为了发挥党团对民主政治的积极作用、抑制其消极作用,《基本法》规定了党团相对议会、政党的独立。党团相对议会独立的本质,是少数党团相对多数党团的独立,只有实现这种独立才能落实立法与行政分权制衡的宪法原则,实践中的问题主要围绕着党团成立条件与资助平等。随着政党社会动员功能的萎缩,党团对政党的控制日益加强,但是为了督促政党保持并扩大其社会基础,有必要保证政党相对党团的独立性,对此,德国的实践主要从切断党团与政党的法律与经济联系着手。     

论明治宪法体制的形成背景

1889年,日本政府以天皇亲授的形式发布了《大日本帝国宪法》即明治宪法,为日本明治维新以来开始的资本主义文化进程树起了一块重要的里程碑。自那时起到1945年日本在第二次世界大战中战败时为止,半个多世纪里,日本国家政治体制建设经历了极其复杂和剧烈的动荡。其间既出现过官僚政治横行,行政机构高居于立法机构之上的所谓超然内阁时期,也出现过政党势力迅猛发展,直至影响组阁的所谓政党政治时期,还出现过把官僚、政党统统打入另册,而由军方统治的法西斯专政时期。值得深思的是,尽管统治形式出现如此大起大落的变化,但是构成明治国家政治体制基石的明治宪法却始终没有作过任何更动。或者说,在同一个宪法体制的框架内,竞能够容纳下如此截然相反的政治趋向,这一历史事实说明,明治宪法体制本身具有极大的伸缩性,它的内涵不是单一的,而是多元的,它的宗旨不是专项的,而是兼容的。明治宪法体制的这一特点,是同其时代背景和形成过程紧密联系在一起的。     

森有礼教育思想述评

森有礼是日本明治维新时期著名的政治家、教育家,日本近代国家主义教育体制的奠基人。 1847年,他出生在鹿儿岛萨摩藩的一个下级武士家庭。12岁时,入藩校造士馆接受儒学启蒙教育。两年之后,又入开成所(藩的洋学校)改习洋学。此时正值日本迫于欧美列强的压力,放弃闭关锁国政策,走上“开国”之路的阶段。西方列强的奴役和国内新旧势力的纷争,在他幼小的心灵中留下了深刻印象。     

论山县内阁与民党的政治博弈

站在以土佐派为中心的自由党的立场上来看，虽然其妥协姿态备受社会各界的指责，但由于采取务实主义，与山县内阁展开巧妙周旋，一方面采用强硬手段与其对抗，另一方面不失时机地与之进行妥协，从而充分展示了以自由党为代表的民党的巨大实力。站在山县内阁的角度，其最终无奈地接受占岁出预算政府原案的约7．5％的削减，也明显反映出其遭受了前所未有的重创。     

王宠惠与朝鲜独立

王宠惠是国民党元老、著名法学家和外交家,抗战时期任外交部部长和国防最高委员会秘书长,是蒋介石的首席外交顾问,陪同蒋介石出席了开罗会议,拟订了朝鲜独立和中国在朝鲜独立问题上的各种行动方案,殚精竭虑促使国际社会承认朝鲜独立,为战后朝鲜独立做出了重要贡献。     

The Formation of Cabinet Coalitions in Presidential Systems

Cabinet coalitions are central to the functioning of Latin American presidential systems. However, the reasons for their formation remain unclear. While recent studies suggest that presidents invite parties to the cabinet to facilitate governability and lawmaking, this study argues that the composition of cabinet coalitions is largely predetermined by commitments made before presidential elections. To analyze this argument, the study introduces the conditional logit model as a new empirical strategy for modeling cabinet choice under this type of regime. Based on a new dataset of 107 cabinets in 13 Latin American democracies, the study shows that pre‐electoral commitments strongly affect cabinet formation and thereby also confound the relationship between cabinet formation and governability.     

Post-Cabinet Careers of Regional Ministers in Germany, 1990–2011

The study of ministerial careers in Germany is rather new. So far it has been mainly restricted to the federal level and to the career pathways up until cabinet exit. This article, by contrast, concentrates on the post-cabinet careers of regional ministers. Drawing from the scarce literature we first sketch out career patterns of regional ministers prior to and during their time in the regional cabinet. The main focus, though, is on the post-cabinet biographies of all regional ministers in the sixteen German Länder since unification. Our empirical analysis reveals the regional cabinet as the career apex for most ministers. Looking at those ministers who do move up the political ladder after leaving the cabinet shows a clear preference for the national over the European level and the executive office over the legislative mandate. Variation in post-cabinet careers seems not only to be influenced by party, Land and ministerial office (Prime Minister vs normal minister) but also by the causes and circumstances of exit from the cabinet (exit type). These empirical results represent a first step into a new research field – lying waste since Blondel's early attempt in 1991 – and will hopefully provide a starting point for more comprehensive and comparative analysis.     

The Effect of Ministerial Instability on Government's Mandate Fulfilment: Evidence from the Portuguese Case

Research on the fulfilment of electoral promises has been particularly fruitful over the past decades. Most of it focused on examining pledge fulfilment at the cabinet level, and little emphasis was placed on the reasons underlying the level of compliance. As a consequence, core factors in explaining pledge fulfilment have not yet been explored. One such factor might be instability in a government's internal functioning. We argue that ministerial instability is relevant for explaining a government's broken promises, and that its importance increases at the junior minister level and among the most salient ministries. Relying on data on the fulfilment of electoral promises and ministerial instability in Portugal between 1995 and 2019, backed by interviews with former ministers and junior ministers, we provide evidence that the fulfilment of electoral promises is significantly influenced by portfolio volatility, particularly at the junior ministerial level and in the most important ministries.     

Reading a bureaucratic career backwards: how did Hüseyin Hilmi Pasha become the Inspector-General of Rumelia?

When Hüseyin Hilmi Pasha (1855–1918) was appointed as the Inspector General for the Rumelian Provinces (Vilâyât-? Selâse Umûm Müfetti?i) in November 1902, his eligibility for such a position was questioned by some of his contemporaries. This article aims to reconstruct and understand the path that led this statesman, from the very beginning of his career, towards the inspectorate during the time of Sultan Abdulhamid II (r. 1876–1909). Hüseyin Hilmi Pasha began his bureaucratic life in Midilli (Lesbos Island) in 1874, and he was very fortunate to encounter Nam?k Kemal and become his protégé. Apart from his early career, he mainly served in the southern Anatolian and Syrian regions of the empire, and later in Yemen. However, these regions were afflicted with similar problems, a fact that helped Hüseyin Hilmi Pasha evolve into a ‘crisis management expert’. The experiences he gained at each post opened the door for the next one, thus transforming him into a prominent statesman of the Hamidian administration and ultimately enabling him to reach the inspectorate of Rumelia.     

Do Minority Cabinets Govern More Flexibly and Inclusively? Evidence from Germany

A widespread view in political science is that minority cabinets govern more flexibly and inclusively, more in line with a median-oriented and 'consensual' vision of democracy. Yet there is only little empirical evidence for it. We study legislative coalition-building in the German state of North-Rhine-Westphalia, which was ruled by a minority government between 2010 and 2012. We compare the inclusiveness of legislative coalitions under minority and majority cabinets, based on 1028 laws passed in the 1985–2017 period, and analyze in detail the flexibility of legislative coalition formation under the minority government. Both quantitative analyses are complemented with brief case studies of specific legislation. We find, first, that the minority cabinet did not rule more inclusively. Second, the minority cabinet’s legislative flexibility was fairly limited; to the extent that it existed, it follows a pattern that cannot be explained on the basis of the standard spatial model with policy-seeking parties.     

The Challenges of Transitioning from Opposition to Government: Liberal Party Planning for Government 1983 – 1996

Studies examining opposition transition to government processes and planning usually emphasise the responsibility of oppositions as a legislative institution and the role of party leaders. However, such approaches place too much emphasis on notions of responsible opposition and party leaders. They de‐emphasise the importance of partisan considerations that shape transition planning or how party organisations have attempted to assert control over parliamentary parties. Drawing on archival materials, policy documents, and elite interviews, this study examines both public and internal transition to government strategies undertaken by the Liberal Party of Australia during their opposition years (1983–1996). The paper finds that while party leaders became more important over time, the party organisation's involvement remained significant. The Liberal Party transition planning focused primarily on cabinet processes, Australian Public Service (APS) organisation, particularly the senior bureaucratic level, and selecting political staff. In so doing, the Liberal Party anticipated many of the Hawke government's 1987 reforms to the APS. The Liberal Party was motivated by its desire to restructure the machinery and culture of government and to allocate sufficient political staff resources to government. Its aim was to better equip the party to achieve its political and ideological goals when next in government.     

DEMOCRACY AND NATIONALISM IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: THE CASE OF MALAWI

The collapse of the Banda regime in 1994 has led to a renewedinterest in the nature of the Malawian political tradition.This paper seeks to contribute to the debate by focusing onthe political beliefs of nationalist politicians in the decadeleading up to the cabinet crisis of 1964 which marks, in someviews, the true origin of the Banda dictatorship. It suggeststhat early nationalist politicians like James Frederick Sangalaand Levi Mumba combined a belief in the importance of unitywith a democratic awareness of the virtues of civil society.As Congress grew in popularity, however, elements of a totalitarianideology, deeply intolerant of dissent, began to appear, notonly in Dr Banda's speeches but in those of his lieutenantsand subsequent opponents such as Masauko Chipembere and KanyamaChiume. This tendency increased with the founding in 1959 ofthe Malawi Congress Party which developed as an absolutist bodyboth in terms of its own internal structure and in the demandsit made on Malawian society. Some politicians drew on the autocratictradition of the colonial era to produce justifications forthe establishment of an African-controlled dictatorship. OnlyDunduzu Chisiza provided a coherent democratic alternative tothese views. And even Chisiza had difficulty in reconcilinghis belief in strongman government with the need to protectindividual rights. A totalitarian strain, deeply intolerantof dissent, had thus entered Malawian politics prior to 1964.But this strain coexisted with a democratic tradition, articulatedin particular by Mumba and Chisiza.     

三木内阁的“等距离外交”与中日缔约谈判

三木内阁试图利用中苏矛盾在两国之间奉行“等距离外交”，一方面表示要全力推进中日缔约，稳步发展中日友好关系，以此提高对苏交涉地位；另一方面又不想开罪苏联，在中日缔约上施加种种限制，积极推动日苏对话，以增加对关战略博弈的资本，加重对中国谈判的筹码。三木内阁企图从中苏对抗中渔翁得利、两头通吃的作法反而使日本在苏联的压力下陷入被动，也引起了美国的反感和否定，从而使其推行的“等距离外交”在实践中四处碰壁，而不得不草草收场。