China's Maritime Security and the “Malacca Dilemma”

Abstract

As maritime trading becomes an increasingly important element of the modern Chinese economy, concerns in Beijing are being raised about the safety of vital sea lanes. Central to this thinking has been Hu Jintao's explanation of the “Malacca Dilemma” in late 2003, which describes the problem of sea routes crucial to China's trade, especially the Malacca Straits, being subject to interdiction from another state. At the same time, the international war on terror has also raised the specter of economic terrorism aimed at disrupting commerce via the Straits. Due to the complex nature of these potential threats, there is the temptation for China to address the “Dilemma” unilaterally as the country modernizes its naval forces. However, it remains in Beijing's interests to work both with littoral states and other great powers in ensuring greater security in the Malacca region.     

Asia’s Security Triangles: Maritime Minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific

Since the early years of the twenty-first century, a number of key regional governments have consciously chosen to alter the way they talk about the region, and have now largely shifted from using the ‘Asia-Pacific’ to the ‘Indo-Pacific’ construct. But after three decades of utilising the ‘Asia-Pacific’ concept, why has this been the case and how might this shift in geographical conceptualisation alter the strategic framework of the region? This paper argues that the ‘Indo-Pacific’ is a regional reconceptualisation utilised by Japan, Australia, India and the USA to address deficiencies in Asia’s maritime security and institutional architecture, which are being simultaneously influenced by a more assertive Chinese posture and waning U.S. influence. Additionally, the Indo-Pacific concept has developed in tandem with a transformation in the regional security architecture. The utilisation of maritime minilateralism between Japan, India, Australia and the USA supplements Asia’s bilateral American alliances, with an array of trilateral security dialogues or ‘security triangles’. The Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific shift is really an instance of an emerging minilateral security regionalism, rather than the predominant forms of bilateral and multilateral security and economic regionalism that have dominated Asia in recent decades.     

Militarizing Japan’s Southwest Islands: Subnational Involvement and Insecurities in the Maritime Frontier Zone

Abstract

This paper sheds light on a relatively underexplored aspect of Japan’s recent security changes by examining the subnational level where the impact has been far-reaching. It focuses on Japan’s maritime frontier zone: the Yaeyama Islands located at the southwestern end of the Japanese archipelago and administered as part of Okinawa Prefecture. It argues that while Yaeyama militarization has been primarily a national response to China’s portrayed assertiveness in the East China Sea, it has also been facilitated by the strategic actions of local political elites, in cooperation with sympathetic extra-local forces. Political elites from two islands, Yonaguni and Ishigaki, have been motivated primarily by diverging material and ideational factors. Yonaguni elites have viewed militarization largely through the prism of “compensation politics.” Their counterparts in Ishigaki have been driven by more ideological objectives, seeking militarization for deterrence purposes and otherwise transforming the island into a rightist breeding ground in defence of Japanese territory. Yaeyama militarization has not only diminished enthusiasm for seeking autonomy and enhancing economic security through microregional cooperation, but has also enhanced local-level insecurities while creating and exacerbating divisions.     

Asian Security without the United States? Examining China’s Security Strategy in Maritime and Continental Asia

Chinese President Xi Jinping has touted an Asian security architecture in which “it is for the people of Asia to run the affairs of Asia.” But does China really want to exclude the United States from the regional order? This article argues that previous answers are often insufficient because they do not account for sub-regional variation in China’s strategy. In maritime Asia, China seeks a significantly reduced role for the US and its alliances though major constraints limit the prospects for success. In continental Asia, however, the situation is more nuanced, with Beijing alternately ignoring, supporting, or hedging against US presence. The policy implication is that Washington should not overstate Beijing’s role as either a regional adversary or a regional partner. Rather, the United States needs to approach China on its own terms across sub-regions.     

The Super Confederacy: The Military in Fiji’s Politics

Abstract

The military has dominated Fijian politics for more than two and a half decades. After independence Fijian democracy was built on the façade of chiefly elite rule, the legacy of a colonial past. Since the passing of the Sukuna/Mara era, the patron–client relationship between the ruling elite and the military elite has been inverted. The military has since redefined national politics, with Maj. Gen. Rabuka then Rear Admiral Bainimarama becoming prime ministers, Fijian style, after leading successful coups. In the 2014 elections 10 military officers were elected to parliament under a newly decreed constitution. This paper analyses how the military elite once subservient to civilian rule has expanded its role as the major actor in Fiji’s politics.     

The Commonwealth Caribbean and Europe: The End of the Affair?

Abstract

The institutional relationship between the Commonwealth Caribbean and the European Union (EU) dates back to the mid-1970s, when the Lomé Convention was signed. The agreement was seen as a high water mark in First–Third World relations. However, since then the bond has come under concerted pressure. The consequence is that today the particularism that underpinned relations for so long has almost vanished and the EU is beginning to treat the Caribbean like any other relatively marginal region of the world. The article evaluates the reasons for this change, in particular: the scrapping of the trade protocols; the erosion of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) preference due to free trade agreements signed by the EU; the refocusing of EU development policy towards the least developed countries; and the split in the ACP group with the creation of an ill-designed regional Economic Partnership Agreement. The article places these changes into starker relief by assessing briefly the deepening links between the United Kingdom Overseas Territories and the EU. However, as the article highlights, this link will neither reboot nor sustain the more important Commonwealth Caribbean–EU relationship.     

The Left Party at Six: The PDS–WASG Merger in Comparative Perspective

Six years ago the Left Party arose out of the Left Party.PDS and the WASG. Although the Left Party.PDS possessed organisational assets that far exceeded those of the small WASG, the new Left Party has differed significantly from the former PDS in terms of programme, personnel and approach. To understand the conditions under which smaller merging partners may transform a newly fused party, this article examines the lessons of three other post-1945 cases of party merger in Germany. This analysis finds that strategic assets, in addition to organisational ones, determine the post-merger balance of forces within a new party. The paper concludes by reconsidering the Left Party's development and prospects in light of these findings.     

The ‘Louis XVI of the Turks’: The Character of an Ottoman Sultan

Selim III ruled the Ottoman Empire in the Age of Revolutions, but his rule did not reflect the vigorous, expansionist and aggressive spirit of this age. He more resembled a ruler forced to defend his empire from the turbulence of the age, an effort which also shaped his character and perception of rulership. During his years in royal confinement, he clung passionately to the revival of the warrior-sultan through charismatic leadership. While on the throne, there was a gradual transformation of his perception of rulership and he became satisfied with being the bureaucratic ruler of the empire.     

The American-Japanese ‘Co-prosperity sphere’

Abstract

For many years Jane Hamilton-Merritt has carried out a publicity campaign in support of Vang Pao and the so-called “Lao resistance,” while condemning the government of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) and anyone who challenges her own views. Hamilton-Merritt has demonstrated great effectiveness in marshaling the mainstream media, reputable public figures, and otherwise respected institutions as the channels or even mouthpieces for her campaign. The publication of Tragic Mountains highlights her ongoing efforts to find acceptance for her fanciful vision of the recent history of Laos (and the United States). Her success in this campaign has been possible only because few in her audience know the facts behind her distorted misrepresentations. In this book, Hamilton-Merritt constructs a fantastical account of “the Hmong, the Americans, and the secret wars for Laos” that bears little relation to the truth of the events and personalities she discusses.     

The diplomacy of ‘Disregard’

Abstract

The recent revival of interest in the state in post-colonial societies is, in large part, a consequence of the decline of dependency theory as a general tool for the analysis of society and economy in the “third world” and a move towards an approach based upon the concepts of mode of production and social formation. The focus of analysis has consequently moved from global structures of capital circulation to class struggle within specific peripheral social formations. This paper is not the place to follow the complex debate which has surrounded the decline of dependency theory but the following quote by Leys puts succinctly the major thrust of the critics:     

The ‘Europeanization’ of the Religious Cleavage in Turkey: The Case of the Alevis

The EU accession process reveals a series of paradoxes, which are not merely indicative of the complexity of Turkey's state–religion relations in general but also point to how the Justice and Development Party (JDP) government portrays controversies such as the Sunni–Alevi divide. The religious cleavages in Turkey have become Europeanized and found expression in the European political and legal structures. The Alevis have been one of the groups most affected by this issue partly because of their heterodox and transnational religious identity and partly as a result of their links with secularist political sectors. The paper underlines a dilemma of current Turkish politics. The case of the Alevis shows that the regime's current transformation undermines its basis through exclusion. The JDP's political strategy, focusing on the effective control of the mainstream Sunni base, does not willingly accept or tolerate the autonomy of some civil society groups, including the Alevis.     

Tribal or Indigenous? The Indian Dilemma

Abstract

Current Maoist struggles, resulting from deprivation of livelihood in the Central Indian tribal belt and for autonomy in Northeast India, focus on the rights of tribes who claim to be indigenous In the Northeast the demand is to be considered the ‘original’ inhabitants of the region and, in the rest of India, it is the first inhabitants of India as a whole. Most conflicts today are around identity, central to which is indigenous status and tribal sustenance. Much resource has been alienated for ‘national development’ since independence in 1947. A national failure to recognise the importance of community-based sustenance facilitates its alienation. Intensified alienation, resulting from globalisation, causes more conflicts and greater state suppression. This article discusses the link between development and indigenous status, and implications for human rights.     

The Renewal of Social Democracy? The Rann Labor Government (2002–11)

Labour governments around the world are struggling to renew labour and social democratic values in the modern era. The South Australian Labor government, led by Mike Rann (2002–11), presents a striking case of a labour government that pursued a renewal of social democracy. By offering a critical examination of the ideological contours of the Rann Government, this paper contributes to wider debates about the flux of social democracy. In Australia, debates about Labor's identity tend to focus on the federal rather than state level, which this article seeks, in part, to redress. The Rann government's economic and social inclusion policies are examined and compared with its South Australian historical forebears, and the Rann government is located within the various labour “traditions”.     

The US‐South Africa binational commission

A critical look at the role played by South Africa in the initiative.