有效制定高校辅导员谈心计划

新时期有效开展高校辅导员思想政治工作,首先要从沟通开始,与学生建立有效有序的沟通模式,从而切实了解学生思想和心理状态是完成各项工作的前提和基础,怎样有效制定高校辅导员的谈心计划,是对高校辅导员谈心工作的提升,具有重要的实践意义.本文探讨的内容包含制订谈心计划的前期准备工作,先确定必谈的十类学生,如,学习问题生、贫困生、性格孤僻生等,并对这十类学生特点进行具体分析,制订相应地谈话策略;及如何以时间轴确定谈话对象,如学期初、学期中、学期末不同阶段,不同谈话计划;怎样分类别把握谈心时机;怎样把握谈话过程中的细节,如保持微笑、低分贝、先闲谈、保持敏锐的心、不容忽视的心理学知识等,且通过工作中的实例辅助理论展开探讨,全面阐述如何有效制定高校辅导员谈心计划.     

“九五”计划的经济发展思路已定

国家计划、投资和市场方面的“九五”计划已拟就。据权威消息,“九五”计划(1996年至2000年)期间,将着重解决建立市场经济、企业改革和建立新机制等八个方面的问题,在产业发展上,将依靠科技进步,优化产业结构,缓解基础产业。瓶颈”制约,     

思想政治工作与管理学的内在联系

<正>思想政治工作与管理是两个不同的学科,思想政治工作是用党的思想和理论去影响员工的行动;管理则是由管理者通过实施计划、组织、领导、协调、控制等职能,综合运用和协调各方面的资源有效实现组织目标的过程。尽管表面上看来思想政治工作与管理学分属不同的学科领     

试论现代企业信息化改造的必要性和措施

现代企业的信息化改造,主要指企业从事获取、传输、处理、提供信息的部门及其工作人员对信息的利用。信息是客观事物属性的反映,是消息、情报、数据、资料、情况的总称,信息和材料、能源被称为现代科     

有争议的室温核聚变

今年3月23日,美国犹他大学化学系主任斯坦利·庞斯和英国南安普敦大学教授马丁·弗莱希曼在记者招待会上宣布,他们在室温条件下,在实验室内用电化学的方法实现了核聚变反应(故称室温核聚变,亦称冷聚变),测到了比本底高出3倍的中子,输出能量比输入能量高4倍。这一消息震撼了世界整个科技界。人们称这可能是本世纪最重要的一项发现和技术突破。在为人类提供“取之不尽,用之不竭”的无污     

副职设置过多的弊端

一、降低工作效率.领导层人数过多,势必造成权力分散,互相扯皮,增加内耗.好比一台机器,通过轴和齿轮等零部件传输动力,由于零部件相互间的磨擦,会损耗部分能.而参与传输的零部件愈多,磨擦愈多,损耗的能也就愈多.在同一层次上,不可能有很多人负全面责任,因此,各副职往往只是分管某一方面的工作,等于徒然在正职与各下属单位或部门之间增加了一个层次.副职分管该级某一方面的工作,这实际是在做该层次领导本份之外的工作,等于不同程度地夺了下一级领导的权.     

基于卷积神经网络的车辆尾部放大号牌检测算法研究

为了有效治理工程渣土、垃圾等散装物品运输车辆野蛮行驶行为,依法高效地对车辆尾部未喷涂放大号牌的违法行为进行查处,提出一种基于卷积神经网络的车辆尾部喷涂放大号牌检测方法。该方法对经典的AlexNet网络模型进行了改进,适当减少了网络模型层数,保留了Dropout技术,运行效率和准确率较高。为验证算法模型的可行性,对不同车型的样本分别进行训练和测试;为验证算法模型的通用性和有效性,对不同车型的混合车型样本集进行训练和测试。实验测试表明,该方法对车辆尾部放大号牌的检测相比经典AlexNet算法速度更快、效果更好,准确率达到91.2%,满足实践检测的要求。     

夺取反腐败斗争压倒性胜利的新战略CSSCI

在反腐败方面,党的十九大制定了一个新的战略计划。战略目标是夺取反腐败胜利。战略对策是一个双层结构,包括3项基础对策和1项直接对策,分别是全面从严治党、作风建设、权力监督和标本兼治。该战略计划具有总体上的科学性。在执行之前,需要为该战略计划设置明确的时间表,需要为胜利目标选定具体可测量的指标。执行中还将面对如何"去"存量、把权力关进制度的笼子、推进激励制度建设等挑战。     

1991年中国科技战线的重大成果

1991年是我国科技战线发生重大转折的一年。这一年,经过千百万科技人员的艰苦努力,圆满地完成了国家“七五”科技攻关计划。紧接着,又拉开了“八五”科技攻关计划的序幕。虽然只有短短一年时间,但是,科技战线各方面都传出了令人振奋的消息。     

华大基因已然起飞

在深圳召开的第五届中国生物产业大会传来消息：华大基因已然起飞。华大基因研究院院长汪建先生告诉与会代表，得益于国家开发银行的100亿元授信，现在华大基因在所属专业的数据产出是全美国的总和，在全球顶尖杂志上的论文发表量是行业内世界第一。去年按照月收入千万元做计划，今年产业快速发展，每个月收入过亿元。     

Maximum likelihood estimation of structural VARFIMA models

This paper considers the maximum likelihood estimation of a class of structural vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average (VARFIMA) models. The structural VARFIMA model includes the fractional cointegration model as one of its special cases. We show that the conditional likelihood Durbin–Levinson (CLDL) algorithm of Tsay (2010a) is a fast and reliable approach to estimate the long-run effects as well as the short- and long-term dynamics of a structural VARFIMA process simultaneously. In particular, the computational cost of the CLDL algorithm is much lower than that proposed in Sowell (1989) and Dueker and Startz (1998). We apply the CLDL method to the Congressional approval data of Durr et al. (1997) and find that the long-run effect of economic expectations on Congressional approval is at least 0.5718, which is over twice the estimate of 0.24 found in Table 2 of Box-Steffensmeier and Tomlinson (2000). This paper also tests the divided party government hypothesis with the CLDL algorithm.     

Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections

It has long been recognized that Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) suffers from a defect known as nonmonotonicity, wherein increasing support for a candidate among a subset of voters may adversely affect that candidate’s election outcome. The expected frequency of this type of behavior, however, remains an open and important question, and limited access to detailed election data makes it difficult to resolve empirically. In this paper, we develop a spatial model of voting behavior to approach the question theoretically. We conclude that monotonicity failures in three-candidate IRV elections may be much more prevalent than widely presumed (results suggest a lower bound estimate of 15 % for competitive elections). In light of these results, those seeking to implement a fairer multi-candidate election system should be wary of adopting IRV.     

The psychological roots of populist voting: Evidence from the United States,the Netherlands and Germany

What are the psychological roots of support for populist parties or outfits such as the Tea Party, the Dutch Party for Freedom or Germany's Left Party? Populist parties have as a common denominator that they employ an anti‐establishment message, which they combine with some ‘host’ ideology. Building on the congruency model of political preference, it is to be expected that a voter's personality should match with the message and position of his or her party. This article theorises that a low score on the personality trait Agreeableness matches the anti‐establishment message and should predict voting for populist parties. Evidence is found for this hypothesis in the United States, the Netherlands and Germany. The relationship between low Agreeableness and voting for populist parties is robust, controlling for other personality traits, authoritarianism, sociodemographic characteristics and ideology. Thus, explanations of the success of populism should take personality traits into account.     

Six strategy lessons from Clausewitz and Sun Tzu

A good strategy is crucial for a successful lobby or public affairs campaign. In this article, six strategy lessons from Clausewitz and Sun Tzu's classical works on military strategy are discussed, which could be useful for lobbyists and public affairs managers. Although waging war and lobbying are totally different things, there are also many similarities: both deal with aims to be achieved, opponents, threats and opportunities, (political) victories, and defeats. Therefore, military strategic thinking might provide the field of public affairs with some good and practical insights. First of all, Sun Tzu and Clausewitz stress the importance of meticulous exploration before the action starts. Subsequently, when laying strategy plans, one should beware of Pyrrhic victories and ‘the fallacies of hope’. Clausewitz, in particular, warns us to expect the unexpected and not to be surprised by the friction between even the best plans and their realization. A good way to handle this friction is to lay down the why and the what of coming actions but not how these actions should be carried out. Both thinkers also provide guidance in how to effectively deal with opponents; surprise an opponent to achieve the upper hand, and bring yourself in a position which will enable a decisive step forward; divide opponents whilst making yourself as strong as possible; and finally prevent a hard‐edged confrontation by offering an alternative. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is it ‘Fake News’? Intelligence Community expertise and news dissemination as measurements for media reliability

Self-communication platforms have generated a myriad of outlets and news producers that represent a challenge for modern societies. Therefore, it is relevant to explore new measurements that can help understand whether a specific outlet disseminating news could be considered reliable or not. This study is based on the expertise from the U.S. Intelligence Community to offer a statistical model that replicates the reliability measurements based on intelligence expertise. The results suggest that a classification algorithm could be useful to measure news media reliability. Additionally, different variables were identified to predict perceptions of media reliability.     

The efficiency of a group-specific mandated benefit revisited: the effect of infertility mandates

This paper examines the labor market effects of state health insurance mandates that increase the cost of employing a demographically identifiable group. State mandates requiring that health insurance plans cover infertility treatment raise the relative cost of insuring older women of child-bearing age. Empirically, wages in this group are unaffected, but their total labor input decreases. Workers do not value infertility mandates at cost, and so will not take wage cuts in exchange, leading employers to decrease their demand for this affected and identifiable group. Differences in the empirical effects of mandates found in the literature are explained by a model including variations in the elasticity of demand, moral hazard, ability to identify a group, and adverse selection.     

How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy

Dominant theories of electoral behavior emphasize that voters myopically evaluate policy performance and that this shortsightedness may obstruct the welfare‐improving effect of democratic accountability. However, we know little about how long governments receive electoral credit for beneficial policies. We exploit the massive policy response to a major natural disaster, the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany, to provide an upper bound for the short‐ and long‐term electoral returns to targeted policy benefits. We estimate that the flood response increased vote shares for the incumbent party by 7 percentage points in affected areas in the 2002 election. Twenty‐five percent of this short‐term reward carried over to the 2005 election before the gains vanished in the 2009 election. We conclude that, given favorable circumstances, policy makers can generate voter gratitude that persists longer than scholarship has acknowledged so far, and elaborate on the implications for theories of electoral behavior, democratic accountability, and public policy.     

The limits and variety of risk‐based governance: The case of flood management in Germany and England

Risk‐based governance is argued by many to hold the promise of a more rational and efficient state, by making explicit the limitations of state interventions and focusing finite resources on those targets where probable damage is greatest. This paper challenges the assumption that risk‐based governance has the potential for universal and uniform application, by comparing contemporary flood management in Germany and England. On first inspection, flooding appears to be a paradigmatic case of risk colonizing European policy discourses, with the traditional notion of flood defense giving way to flood risk management in the context of climate change, increasingly frequent flood disasters, political and cost pressures on flood protection, and publicly available European‐wide flood assessments. Drawing on in‐depth empirical research, this paper shows how the role, and even the definition, of “risk” is institutionally shaped, and how the respective institutional environments of German and English flood management practices impede and promote risk colonization. In particular, the use and conceptualizations of risk in governance are variously promoted, filtered, or constrained by the administrative procedures, structures, and political expectations embedded within flood management and wider polities of each country. The findings of this research are important for the design and implementation of supranational policies and regulations that endorse risk‐based approaches, such as the recent EU Flood Directive, as well as scholarly debate as to how to legitimately define the limits of governance in the face of uncertainty and accountability pressures.     

Private provision of public goods can be efficient

Economists have long believed that private provision of public goods will be inefficient, though recently some have argued that altruism may mitigate the inefficiencies. Without altruism, agents contribute to the point where marginal cost equals their private marginal benefits. With altruism, they contribute more and hence are closer to the point where marginal cost and total marginal benefits are equated. In an earlier paper (Bagnoli and Lipman, 1989), we showed that private provision need not be inefficient. In a very natural model of private provision without altruism, we showed that the set of (undominated perfect) equilibrium outcomes is identical to the core. Here we consider the effect of altruism on private provision. Altruism essentially creates more public goods because the well-being of others becomes a public good. We show that our model of private provision still has efficient equilibria under a wide variety of circumstances. Interestingly, the equilibria may be inefficient when agents are concerned about the effect of private provision on the distribution of wealth. Intuitively, the game we consider is a very powerful instrument for efficient private provision, but must be supported by other instruments if the set of public goods is expanded too far.We wish to thank Jim Andreoni, Ted Bergstrom, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and to acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation through NSF Grant SES-8520296. Of course, any remaining errors are our responsibility.     

Perceptions,fear, and economic loss: an application of prospect theory to environmental decision making

Most of the analysis of costs associated with the introduction of risky prospects has concerned contingent costs amenable to insurance programs. An important missing element is the current cost associated with changes in uncertainty. These costs are not amenable to insurance plans and require compensation in order to prevent transfers. In a novel approach, this paper develops an application of prospect theory to such questions, in an intergenerational context. The importance of such an application is demonstrated in a case study of the high-level nuclear waste repository (HNWR) siting decision. As a case study, the costliness of obtaining some elements of the analysis leads to a simulation approach, comparing prospect costs at the three sites that were under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy. Finding that such costs can be large, we argue for a reassessment of current risk analysis approaches. On a policy note, on the basis of the prospect cost analysis here, the choice of the Yucca Mountain, Nevada, HNWR site seems ill-advised.