Revenge in International Politics

This paper conceptualizes the phenomenon of revenge in international politics and seeks to specify the conditions that increase or diminish the tendency of states to take revenge against enemies. We situate the discussion of revenge within the broader context of emotions in IR. We argue that whether or not a state will take revenge depends on the combinations of three interrelated and mutually constitutive variables: (1) the degree to which a state emotionally experiences harm against it as morally outrageous, (2) the extent of humiliation the harmed state feels, and (3) the degree to which international retaliation is institutionalized by rules and laws that govern the use of cross-border force. We examine the Second Lebanon War (July 2006) as a case of revenge in international politics.     

Negotiating peace in Kosovo

We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a second look at settlement opportunities. Russia was identified as the key mediator needed to reach a settlement We show that a European‐led settlement offered promising prospects for peace. Finally, we demonstrate that the settlement achieved after the air war was not much different than the settlement that could have been achieved at Rambouillet The settlement on Kosovo offers only short‐term stability. To gain long‐term stability, the Serbians must either agree to the existing ethnic makeup in Kosovo or allow it to be partitioned. Otherwise, conflict in this region will likely revive.     

科索沃"独立"问题探析

科索沃"独立"问题源于塞尔维亚和科索沃阿尔巴尼亚族对科地位的争议,本是一个相对单纯的民族问题.冷战结束后,大国出于各自的战略和地缘政治考虑积极参与塞、阿两族的科索沃地位之争,科问题逐渐国际化和复杂化.本文认为,科走向单方面宣布独立之路,根本原因在于欧美大国的支持.科单方面独立将给地区安全和经济社会发展、欧洲共同外交和安全政策及俄与西方关系、国际秩序等带来深刻的变化和影响.科未来发展也不容乐观,因为科单方面独立并没有真正确定科的最终地位,反而带来了新的"最终地位"问题.     

The Revenge of Geopolitics

On the eve of Bill Clinton's second term, Harvey Sicherman wrote that the President must educate public opinion, cultivate congressional consensus, manage international coalitions, and use military power decisively when needed.     

科索沃"独立"的国际法透视

科索沃单方面独立是非法的,它违反了联合国安理会第1244号决议和国际法中的人民自决原则.欧美国家对科"独立"的承认开创了一个危险先例,将引发联合国和国际法的价值危机以及国际秩序的震荡.重启谈判是稳定、持续解决科索沃地位问题的惟一途径,塞黑联盟模式或加拿大"国中之国"模式提供了范例.中国应该为营造塞科双方新的谈判氛围发挥建设性作用.     

科索沃“总统”亚希亚加

今年4月7日,35岁的阿蒂费特·亚希亚加（Atifete Jahjaga）女士宣誓就职科索沃“总统”,成为科索沃2008年2月单方面宣布独立以来的第三位“总统”、第一位女“总统”、第一位无党派“总统”和最年轻的“总统”。     

Ethnic minorities and sustainable refugee return and reintegration in Kosovo

ABSTRACT

Unprecedented levels of displacement make the return of refugees and internally displaced populations a critical challenge, with post-conflict minority return especially complex. This article investigates the return process in Kosovo to identify what supports and hinders sustainability. For nearly two decades the Government of Kosovo and international partners have supported the return of minorities displaced during the 1998–1999 conflict and March 2004 riots. We draw on interviews with all major stakeholder groups in return programming and on indicative survey data from 499 returnees. Using a framework adapted from Black, Koser and Munk (‘Understanding Voluntary Return’), we focus on the Kosovo return process in recent years. The survey results indicate some sustainability but high differentiation in returnees’ satisfaction. This warrants concern, as differences in returnee perspectives run along already conflictual ethnic and spatial fault lines. In post-conflict settings, sustainable return and reintegration require more than the provision of services – they require nuanced understanding of how the shadow of conflict shapes returnee experiences. Finally, we question the orthodoxy of return discourse and highlight critical factors to support sustainable return elsewhere.     

Spillover effect: aftershocks in Kosovo,Macedonia and Serbia

The 1999 NATO intervention against Yugoslavia may prove to be a pivotal event in European security. Yet much of former Yugoslavia seems to hover in tenuous uncertainty, Kosovo remains an international protectorate and Macedonia's fate is uncertain. Specifically, aftershock events of the post-Kosovo intervention led to a security degradation in Macedonia in 2001 and seriously hampered the recovery efforts of Serbia after the ‘October Revolution’ of 2000. This article presents a broad problem-set of dynamics that were and are driving forces in the shaping, analysis and future direction of the European security architecture. Attempts to explain conflict that focus too narrowly on ethnic differences or too broadly evoke human justice as grounds for intervention will consistently miss the strategic mark. There are indeed spillover effects in Macedonia and in Serbia that have direct relations with the aftermath of the 1999 Kosovo intervention.     

Democratization without a State: Democratic Regime-building in Kosovo

This article examines the relationship between democratization and the state with reference to recent political developments in the non-state entity of Kosovo. Existing analyses of the role of the state in democratic transitions provide critical insights into the politics of democratization, but have suffered from a lack of consensus regarding the concept of the state itself. This study distinguishes three separate dimensions of statehood – recognition, capacity and cohesion – and argues that each has separate implications for transition politics. Analysis of democratic political development in Kosovo suggests two conclusions: first, that international recognition of statehood should not be viewed as a prerequisite for democratization, and second, that problems of state capacity or state cohesion present far more fundamental challenges to successful democratic regime change.     

巴尔干国际治理:科索沃案例

冲突后地区的国际治理是冷战后国际社会面临的新挑战.本文对国际治理的起源进行了简要分析,考察了巴尔干国际治理的条件与功能,较为全面地探讨了科索沃国际治理的背景、法律依据、实际运作及其经验,并对科索沃独立后国际治理的演化进行了简要评述.     

美国对科索沃政策解析

2008年2月科索沃单方面宣布独立后,科索沃问题再次成为世人瞩目的焦点.国际社会普遍担心科索沃独立将成为民族分离主义分子效仿的先例.美国在科索沃独立问题上扮演了重要角色.本文简要回顾阿塞两族对科索沃的主权之争,梳理20世纪90年代以来美国科索沃政策的演变过程,解析美国科索沃政策演变的背景及其影响.     

Islamic radicalisation and violence in Ghana

This article examines the incidences of Islamic radicalisation and violence in Ghana. It explores socio-economic and political dynamics, doctrinal and interpretational differences as sources of Islamic radicalisation and violence among the three major religious groups, namely, Al-tijaniyya Movement, Ahlussunna Waljama'a and Ahmadiyya Movement. The paper further explores how diverse factors such as preaching methodologies, external financial support, the presence of a youth bulge and different doctrinal and interpretational approaches to the concept of jihad serve as drivers of radicalisation and possible mutation into violence. Based on extensive empirical research, it argues that, while identified trends, intensity and frequency of incidences of radicalisation and violence among the three religious groups are, first and foremost, motivated by a struggle for doctrinal pre-eminence, they also have the tendency to undermine national peace and security.     

Islamic radicalisation and violence in Liberia

In the last two to three decades, Liberia's image in Africa has oscillated from one extreme to the other. Historically, the country was seen as a beacon of hope as Africa's first Independent Republic and it played its role in the African liberation process. However, 14 years of civil war have punctured this image and the attendant political and economic difficulties have removed the country from the list of countries to be envied. Importantly, the country's political past is complex and its ethnic composition is diverse but what is often neglected as an identity issue is religion. Although Liberia is widely held as a ‘Christian nation’, largely because of the historical fact that those who established it were Christians, there is now emerging the critical dimension of Islamic concerns in the country. Such concerns could become critical to the national security of Liberia, especially if it connects to the wider sub-regional dimension of Islamic radicalisation. The central argument of this article is that the issue of Islamic radicalisation in Liberia is somewhat peculiar as it never manifested itself in the form in which others have in the sub-region. In this sense, what is referred to as radicalisation in Liberia is more the protests and advocacy of Muslims for their rights on a number of specific issues. While these can serve as triggers of radicalisation, they cannot be equated with it.     

Political violence in Algeria

It is estimated that over 20,000 people have died in civil conflict in Algeria since January, 1992, and no resolution is in sight. This article analyzes the current state of civil violence in Algeria in terms of a theory of collective rebellious behaviour stressing falsification of public preferences, adapted from the work of Timur Kuran. The theory links social and psychological factors to explain why the outcome of the political challenge mounted by radical Islamic groups has been stalemate rather than an Islamic revolution or the restoration of stable authoritarianism. It suggests that the outcome of the struggle in Algeria is unpredictable.     

对科索沃危机后美国伊斯兰政策的重新思考

近20年来,美国对外政策的显著特点之一是密切关注伊斯兰问题,并企图将伊斯兰与政治性的“伊斯兰主义”予以区别。这一外交决策的副作用在于夸大所谓伊斯兰威胁,并造成伊斯兰在总体上反西方的误断,使美国的利益因政策失误而蒙受损失。科索沃战争实际上是美国对外决策上的一个“突破”,美国应以此为契机重新思考其对外政策,把对外政策建立在利益考虑而非文明冲突的基础之上。在新的决策中应充分注意伊斯兰问题的复杂性,特别是它在不同地区的政治含义,采取灵活多变的弹性政策,尤其不应忽视正在兴起的逊尼派伊斯兰主义对南亚、中亚、北高加索、巴尔干等地区政治和安全的重要影响。重要之点是需要根据穆斯林居住地政治、社会和经济的变化提出相应的对策。