The political economy of the dollar and the yen in East Asia

From the early 1980s until 1997 large amounts of Japan's current account dollar surplus were invested in U.S. Treasury securities. This economic relationship developed into an “alliance” sustained by the economic policies of U.S. and Japanese authorities. The U.S.-Japanese alliance indirectly promoted East Asian export-led growth during 1985–95. However, policies associated with the U.S.-Japanese alliance also contributed significantly to the 1997 Asian financial crisis. During the past years Japan has launched a number of initiatives for aid and regional monetary co-operation with the aim of internationalising the yen and redirecting regional current account surplus flows to go within the region, rather than being invested in the United States. The article assesses the viability of this regional challenge to U.S. monetary hegemony.     

Challenges for currency cooperation in East Asia

The defects of the current international financial system are creating tremendous distortions in the economies of East Asia. For the time being, most of the developing countries in East Asia have no choice but to adopt some sort of a flexible, wider band system (crawling band) while resorting to capital control when necessary, in order to avoid the recurrence of the Asian currency crisis. Japan's approach to building a stable international financial system in East Asia has gone through several stages since the late 1970s. Though the latest approach of setting up the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) is a step in the right direction, the ABF has severe limitations in reducing the risks for the developing countries in Asia. The ABF needs to be replaced by the Asian Bond Corporation (ABC) in order to develop an international capital market in Asia and use the abundant saving in Asia for financing the growth of Asia. In the process of expanding the activities of the ABC, Asia can adopt the notional common currency based on a basket of major currencies. That notional currency will pave the way toward introducing the Asian common currency, which can be the ultimate goal for the economic cooperation and integration in East Asia. In the meantime, while enhancing currency cooperation, East Asia needs a lender of the last resort in order to keep its economy from collapsing from another currency attack. Japan has been trying to play that role and is poised to take that responsibility as the largest and the most developed economy in the region. International capital markets and a truly international currency must be supported by numerous institutions and intellectual frameworks. Asia is yet to build those institutions. To help build those institutions, we in East Asia need to establish a new international research institution which would coordinate the strenuous intellectual efforts needed for building institutions that bolster the international capital market in Asia. The envisaged new institute can be dubbed the "Asian Monetary Institute," or "AMI."     

中日东亚货币合作——国际关系视角的分析

当今国际政治经济格局与美元霸权是东亚货币合作的大背景,在这一背景下,东亚货币合作有着更深刻的国际利益分配的潜在内涵,而不只是单纯的区域货币合作问题.美、日、中三方的利益关切共同推动和影响着东亚货币合作的进程.日元和人民币都不具备独立作为东亚主导货币的条件,东亚各国或地区的经济发展水平差异较大,货币合作的政治基础比较薄弱等现实条件,促使合作成为中日双方的最佳选择,其中,中日双方政治互信的改善对东亚货币合作尤为重要.     

On new rules for destroying old countries

The attacks on 11 September 2001 were not a major security threat to the United States, but they did create the political conditions for the implementation of an aggressive agenda by the Bush administration to assert U.S. dominance over the global control of oil and to establish an arc of military bases to contain China. Responding to Gowan, this article suggests that bid is unlikely to succeed because the concentration of military strength in the United States is paralleled by a concentration of financial strength in East and Southeast Asia. Though its Asian allies have been more supportive of the U.S. invasion of Iraq than their European counterparts, growing economic integration along Asia's Pacific coasts is likely to lead to a reduction in capital inflows to the United States and thereby aggravate the consequences of its high current accounts deficits and its low rates of domestic savings. The Bush administration's conservative social policies and anti-foreigner zeitgeist is also sapping the competitive edge of the U.S. economy in new technologies.     

The financial crisis in East Asia

The East Asian financial crisis has proved far more contagious than anyone imagined likely when devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997 gave the first indication that something was wrong, and the implications it could have for the entire world financial system mean that any response must involve more than just the nations affected directly. Nobuyuki Ichikawa says Japan, as the locomotive for the Asia‐Pacific region, must move quickly to achieve an early economic recovery by increasing domestic demand and reforming its financial system, in order to increase imports from East Asia and shore up the weak yen. He suggests that one effective measure might be for the yen to become the key currency for Asia in lieu of the dollar. Ichikawa works for the Bank of Japan and was seconded to IIPS in 1995.     

U.S. hegemony and Southeast Asia

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent “war on terror,” have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.     

Japan as America’s global partner: Problems and prospects

The concept of global partnership remains a central theme in the conduct of U.S.-Japan relations in the post-Cold War world. This article critically evaluates Japan’s performance and potential as a global partner for the United States. It notes the qualified outcomes to Japan’s extended quest for a world role, its inability to lead by example in world trade and its preference for international status and contributions as a substitute for international political leadership. On the other hand the article recognizes the increasing significance of Japan’s human contribution to international peacekeeping, its willingness to tackle global problems in cooperation with the United States, and its potential to reduce security costs in Asia by means of foreign aid allocations, increased host-nation support for American forces and by promoting regional security dialogue. The article highlights Japan’s emerging identity as an Asian power and the problem of diverging U.S. and Japanese perspectives on democracy in the region. At the same time, it acknowledges the crucial importance Japan attaches to the continued American military presence in Asia and its desire to insulate the U.S.-Japan security relationship from economic and trade friction. The article concludes with the observation that Japan’s ability and willingness to operate as a global partner of the United States is much greater in some areas than in others. She is the co-author ofThe Political Economy of Agricultural Protection in Northeast Asia: East Asia in International Perspective (Allen and Unwin, 1986).     

从东南亚金融危机看人民币汇率制度选择

1997年爆发了席卷东南亚的金融危机,其波及范围之广、影响之深是近几十年来罕见的。本文在简单回顾东南亚金融危机的基础上,特别从汇率制度的角度,结合金融恐慌论对危机爆发的原因进行深入探讨,以此来分析我国当前汇率制度的现状、优点及缺陷,从而阐明人民币汇率从单一钉住美元向钉住一篮子货币过渡,建立与市场相吻合的有弹性的汇率制度是大势所趋,也是我国防范货币危机的最佳选择。     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

Eastern Figures: Orient and Empire in British Writing

This article outlines the labour impacts and social consequences of the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis and 2008–09 global financial crisis on Southeast Asia. Both had adverse consequences on output, employment, income and poverty in the region, although the impact of the global financial crisis was much less severe compared to the Asian financial crisis. Economies recovered quickly from both crises. However, labour markets continue to be characterised by informal, vulnerable and precarious employment. The crises and the ensuing efforts of employers to resort to increased flexibility in labour hiring in both crisis and recovery periods fanned labour protests despite the diminutive size of the trade union movement and the underdeveloped system of industrial relations in most countries. In turn, these protests have triggered national and regional debates on rules for labour contracting, minimum wage adjustments and social protection. These debates have remained unresolved even as the region is gearing up for fuller economic integration in 2015 labelled as the ASEAN Economic Community.     

东亚经济地区主义的终结?——制度过剩与经济整合的困境

冷战结束以来,东亚的经济地区主义虽然取得了一些进展,但至今仍然没有发展出一个成熟稳定的区域制度框架来推动区域经济进行深度整合。该地区多重制度框架相互竞争,造成了一种"制度过剩"的特殊格局。这导致东亚地区在经济整合的过程中,缺乏有力的制度推动和有效的区域治理,具体表现为该地区至今仍难以建立有助于提高经济绩效的经济要素完全自由流动的统一经济区;难以采取集体行动,共同应对来自外部的各种经济风险和冲击。本文认为,东亚地区多重制度竞争的背后,是由于与该区域相关的主要行为体对塑造东亚经济秩序有着不同的利益偏好和战略诉求,他们各自极力推动对自身有利的区域机制,从而形成"制度过剩"。主要行为体在东亚的主导权竞争以区域制度竞争的形式展开。随着金融危机之后中国经济的加速崛起以及美国决心重返东亚,东亚经济整合中制衡与反制衡的矛盾将日益突出,从而带来更加激烈的制度竞争,这是东亚经济地区主义遭遇挫折而非取得成功的标志,东亚地区将因此继续沦为经济全球化进程中的"碎片"。     

Japan-Asia economic relations: Trade, investment, and the economic crisis

Japan has been and will continue to be an important economic player in the Asian region through its internationalization policy involving trade, foreign investments, aid, technical and other forms of economic cooperation. More recently, despite its own domestic problems, Japan has extended financial and other forms of assistance and support to the Asian economies which have been hit by the economic crisis. As it is in its interests that the Asian region survives and recover, Japan will indeed continue to lend a helping hand to Asia, either through unilateral or multilateral forms of assistance or both. Due to growing interdependence, Asia needs Japan and Japan needs Asia. This article analyzes Japan's economic relations with Asia. In particular, it hopes to present an overview of Japan’s involvement in Asia through trade and investments prior to the Asian economic crisis which began in July 1997. Moreover, this article provides an assessment of the crisis and identifies Japan’s responses and involvement towards the economic recovery of the crisis-hit economies in the region. The article draws from earlier versions of various papers presented at conferences and seminars in Washington, D.C. (1997), Japan and Mexico (1998), and Singapore and Thailand (1999).     

大萧条时期美国贸易政策与中美贸易

20世纪30年代世界经济大萧条时期,开始于美国的贸易保护主义政策,极大地损害了国际贸易的发展,中国的对外贸易尤其是中美贸易也受到了严重冲击。1929～1932年,尽管中国货币被动贬值,但其对出口的积极效应远远小于美国进口税提高及进口需求下降的效应。1933年以后美国关税壁垒降低,美国货币贬值及白银购买导致中国货币相对升值,但有限的贸易自由化及国民收入的增加,引致进口需求扩大,并由此带动了中国对美出口贸易的增长。     

Peter Gowan's “American grand strategy”

While this article broadly agrees with Peter Gowan's concern about the new militarism of the United States and the appalling consequences that have emerged as a result of U.S. preemption in Iraq, it questions the extent to which his portrait of U.S. hegemony addresses all the relevant issues as they affect the Asian region. Given the numerical dominance of Asia in world population and the rising power of China and India, how Gowan's “American Grand Strategy” applies to this part of the world is of fundamental importance to the relevance and sustainability of his argument. Part 1 on U.S. economic hegemony argues that U.S. capital has not been an unmitigated evil for India and where U.S. interests have been damaging they are not uniquely so: the European Union's economic policies have also been deeply damaging even though Europe is not a hegemon. Part 2 on U.S. political hegemony argues that bringing Pakistan and India into the U.S. alliance system has been beneficial for regional security and domestic political-ethnic stability. Part 3 considers responses to U.S. hegemony, arguing that this supremacy is more fragile than Gowan assumes because new powers, such as China and India, have long-term strategies to reduce their dependency. The conclusion suggests that despite widespread criticism and dissatisfaction with the nature of U.S. engagement in Asia, the dominant view in the region is one that sees the United States as a useful wedge between the emerging interests of China, India, and Japan. In short, the “American Grand Strategy” is not as negative, overwhelming, or as unpopular as Gowan suggests.     

International capital,Singapore's state companies,and security

Since the Asian economic crisis in 1997-98, the Singapore government has embraced neoliberal globalization to a degree not matched elsewhere in East or Southeast Asia. Yet the consolidation and expansion of Singapore's state companies are also integral to this strategy. These companies are increasingly the objects of critical attention from elements of international capital that are seeking to make inroads into various sectors of the Singapore economy. This includes pressures to reform governance systems from which state companies derive competitive advantages. This article examines the nature and political strength of these challenges, the responses to them by the Singapore government, and the implications of this for the future of the authoritarian regime. The article also analyzes the changing geopolitical context within which such disputes are being played out. Security concerns by the U.S. government in particular, it is argued, are mediating conflict over state companies and presenting new opportunities for the authoritarian regime to consolidate.     

Japan's fiscal policy and the East Asian financial crisis

Japanese economic policy has been identified as one possible cause of the East Asian financial crisis that began in July 1997. In this article, Yoichi Okita, Professor of Economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, discusses Japan's role in the recovery of East Asian economies. Can and should Japan contribute to that recovery? To what extent is the recession in Japan an important cause of slow recovery in the region? Okita explores and develops the concept of economic policy coordination. Although changes in the Japanese economy were not the origin of the East Asian crisis, he says, prolonged stagnation in Japan is, nevertheless, a drag on the economies that are in trouble. However, one country's fiscal actions alone cannot solve the crisis; rather, all countries in the region should work together to redress the problem.     

Whither East Asian regionalism

The 1997 financial crisis dealt a severe blow to Asia's self-confidence. In the following article, Professor Ippei Yamazawa, of the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies at Waseda University and the Institute of Developing Economies, examines the effect of regionalism on East Asia before and after 1997. On the surface, regional trade arrangements (RTAs) would seem to repudiate the WTO's multilateral trade liberalization efforts but Yamazawa argues that if RTAs are pursued in parallel with multilateral trade talks then they would complement, rather than compete against, multilateral trade arrangements. He concludes that APEC could find itself a useful role as the intermediary between RTAs and the WTO.     

论欧盟的经济力量

从人口、国内生产总值、国际贸易等经济总量考察,欧盟作为一个整体的经济实力基本与美国相当;从经济多极化的角度而言,欧盟是世界经济的重要一极。欧元自启动以来很快成为仅次于美元的世界第二大货币,这打破了美元一家独霸的局面,有助于国际金融体系的稳定和促进世界经济的平衡发展。欧盟依据其经济力量,通过贸易和发展援助政策以及倡导多边主义原则而成为国际经济的规则制定者。欧盟的经济一体化模式和经济社会模式对世界经济产生了重大的示范影响。     

东南亚地区形势:2009年

2009年,影响东南亚地区形势最重要的外部因素,是全球金融海啸引发的发达国家经济衰退,影响的深度与广度,取决于发达国家的经济衰退持续的时间,刚刚从1997年金融危机中走出来的东南亚国家又将经受一次重大的考验.从政治层面看,东南亚在2009年将会是比较平稳的一年,印尼的大选不会出现大的波澜;泰国在经历了几年的动荡之后,人心思定,街头政治不得人心;马来西亚两大政党联盟--国民阵线和人民联盟争权夺利,但是,这种斗争将会限制在制度范围内.在地区国际关系方面,发达国家忙于国内救火,自顾不暇,而东南亚两个最大的邻居--中国和印度则是风景这边独好,东南亚地区发展进程中的中国因素和印度因素将会进一步凸显.     

东亚货币合作中的美元因素

国际美元本位制使美国获得了主导东亚地区货币政策的软权力,国际美元本位制的"特里芬困境"对于东亚共同货币的构建也存在着难以避免的外部效应.东亚美元化削减了东亚货币合作的所得收益,而强势美元政策使东亚国家面对美元霸权时陷入进退两难境地,从而在一定程度上影响了东亚货币合作最终目标的实现.在东亚货币合作的过程中,一种理想化的共同货币区模式仍然需要不断的发展和完善,如何利用和应对美元的影响则是东亚国家亟待解决的一大问题.