“爆 炸”?

是高兴还是烦恼?面对波兰当前的特殊现象——人口高峰,产生两种极端的论点。乐观主义者看到在这种情况下未来成就的保证J悲观主义者则认为这将是造成一切不幸的祸源,制定政策者和学者专家们都保持清醒头脑注视着这个问题。现在让我们利用统计资料对此现象试加分析。     

阶级分化与代际分裂——欧洲福利国家的养老金政治

在欧洲福利国家的政治经济分析中,有一种由来已久的理论争论:在养老金改革引起的政治冲突中,到底是阶级分化还是代际分裂起主导作用?对此,本文提出一个瓦解这种传统理论分歧的假设,并以此概括出不同政治冲突出现的具体条件。文章认为,一个影响人们对养老金改革态度的关键因素是家庭养老强度,①也就是福利资源通过家庭关系的再分配程度。在养老金改革中到底会形成什么形式的政治联盟,很大程度上受到家庭养老强度的制约。当家庭养老强度较低时,代际之间的冲突更容易显露,并影响到各种政治行为者的选择;当家庭养老强度较高时,阶级分化形式的集体行动才成为主流。     

何时是“他们”,何时是“我们”

如果一个人工智能,真的到了能够独立判断、独立学习的水平,它会把我们人类视为自己的同类吗？最近,随着电影《超能查派》、《复联2》隆重上映,对＂怎么让AI（人工智能）理解人类的道德体系＂、＂AI造反了怎么办＂等问题的讨论非常热烈,＂人工智能＂似乎一夜之间就和普通人扯上了关系。想要造出一个能够和人类智力水平相当的AI（比如查派）,显然并不容易;而如果真的造出来了,这些个AI会如何看待我们,则是个更加复杂的问题。     

TPP的要害是司法主权

从纯经贸角度去讨论TPP协议对中国经贸未来前景会产生怎样的后果,实际上是＂瞄错了靶心＂。诸如将缔约国已经很低的关税降至零、将劳工保护标准提高到发达国家水平、反对对国有企业进行补贴、反对汇率操纵等等＂枝节＂,我认为都只是TPP谈判的烟雾弹,是为了掩饰其核心目标：夺取超越国家主权、进而间接主导主权国家政策法规制定和实施的贸易冲突仲裁司法权!     

欧洲社会联盟实现模式之探讨

至今没有关于欧洲社会联盟统一、明确的概念 ,通常把欧洲社会联盟狭义地理解为欧洲社会政策。笔者认为 ,欧洲社会联盟在广义上可以定义为“欧盟各成员国统一所有与确保平等的社会和政治生活相关的政策领域 ,而且是统一在与欧盟整体经济水平相适应的水平上”。至于实现欧洲社会联盟的模式 ,已经实施的有“最低水准模式”和“协调模式” ;尚在讨论中的实现模式中 ,“第 1 6国模式”是设立一个超国家的社会福利机构作为可选模式 ;“走廊模式”是为各成员国的总社会保障支出比例确定一个“走廊” ,而“社会福利蛇形浮动模式”是为各成员国的各单项社会保障支出比例确定一个“走廊”。文章最后概述了欧洲悲观主义和乐观主义的观点 ,并从现实主义视角分析了影响欧洲社会联盟前景的若干因素。     

越南的人际信任价值观与国家政制

人际信任价值观被越来越多学者认为与国家政制有着密切的关系,特别是社会资本等理论,甚至认为人际信任与现代民主社会政制是正相关关系,是影响现代民主社会政制的重要变量之一。然而,现实的数据表明,虽然越南的国家政制民主指数并不高,但是,越南的人际信任价值观却非常高。为此,本文试图以越南为例,对人际信任价值观做出具体的分析,指出人际信任价值观不应该一概而论,其中的熟人信任和陌生人信任会对国家政制产生不同的影响,因而要对人际信任价值观与国家政制之间的关系做出更为细致的界定,才能提高理论的适用性。     

经济相互依赖:和平之路抑或冲突之源?——中国与周边国家的实证研究(1981～2007)

随着中国与周边国家的经济相互依赖不断深入,政治互动也发生了新的变化。自由主义认为经济相互依赖是促进和平的力量,而现实主义认为是增加冲突的根源。文章收集了1981~2007年中国与周边17个国家截面组成的面板数据进行实证研究发现,在控制"相对综合实力""制度性参与程度"等其他变量后,经济相互依赖的确显著提升了国家间的政治关系,符合自由主义的理论预期。随着经济因素的日益重要,中国与周边国家都加强了经济往来,相互依赖不断深化,形成了命运共同体。在这种情况下,双方都极力避免冲突,而更倾向于合作,以谋求更多的经济福利。另外,对结果的分析和观察控制变量对双边关系的影响,对中国的外交战略也有一定的参考意义。     

中It贸易结构分析

一、产业间贸易理论和产业内贸易理论(一)相关理论简述传统的国际贸易理论认为,由于资源禀赋条件不同会导致产业间贸易,并以此来说明国家之间的分工和贸易。但是从近年来世界贸易的发展趋势看,同一产业内进行的贸易比不同产业间发生的产业间贸易增加更快,而这种同一产业内产品之间的贸易被称作产业内贸易。     

冲突管理的东盟方式

如何有效预防和解决国家间冲突,维护地区及全球的和平与稳定,这一直是战后国际社会和区域主义实施冲突管理的基点与诉求。东盟根据联合国宪章、万隆会议精神和其他国际法基本准则,结合东南亚国家的冲突管理实践,制定和实施了一套被誉为能够体现东盟方式基本特性的冲突管理模式。本文主要考察了国际冲突管理的理论分析框架,东盟冲突管理的基本原则、冲突类型及其管理方法以及后冷战时代东盟冲突管理所面临的挑战。     

“无政府状态”证义

无政府状态是国际关系理论中最重要的概念之一 ,但是对这一概念许多基于常识的体认往往导致认识上的混乱。本文通过对无政府状态与国家性质的关系、与暴力的关系以及与具有强制力的权威的关系这三重关系的探讨 ,提出了自己的见解 ,即在由主权国家构成的国际体系中 ,由于彼此冲突的利益无法得到自动的调节 ,同时又缺少能够限制竞争者所使用的手段的最高权威机构 ,因而在竞争中 ,未受到有力约束的武力被经常用来解决利益的冲突 ,从而构成了无政府状态的重要特性     

A critique of the ‘Bureaucratic authoritarian state’ thesis: The case of the Philippines

The article reviews characteristic patterns of domestic resource mobilization, investments and foreign capital inflows in developing Asia and identifies the emerging issues in resource mobilization. It finds that high levels of investments and savings have been an important reason that developing Asia has had better growth performance than other regions of the world. The pattern of resource mobilization has been different across countries depending upon their development stage. Low-income countries tend to rely on concessional official sources as their debt-servicing capacity is limited and their domestic resource mobilization capacity is weak, while higher income countries rely on domestic resource mobilization as well as competitive financing from international capital markets and foreign direct investment.

Development challenges in Asia continue to be high in the 1990s and will require substantial resources. The challenges will in principle have to be met by domestic resources, indicating the need for strengthening the resource mobilization effort. However, the role of external resources will remain important because of limited domestic resource mobilization in developing Asia. Potential shortage in the global capital market implies that developing countries will have to improve their investment environment to induce more foreign private capital, including foreign direct investment. The possible shortage also indicates the need to strengthen the role of multilateral financial institutions.     

Reformulating the Commons

The western hemisphere is richly endowed with a diversity of natural resource systems that are governed by complex local and national institutional arrangements that have not, until recently, been well understood. While many local communities that possess a high degree of autonomy to govern local resources have been highly successful over long periods of time, others fail to take action to prevent overuse and degradation of forests, inshore fisheries, and other natural resources. The conventional theory used to predict and explain how local users will relate to resources that they share makes a uniform prediction that users themselves will be unable to extricate themselves from the tragedy of the commons. Using this theoretical view of the world, there is no variance in the performance of self‐organized groups. In theory, there are no self‐organized groups. Empirical evidence tells us, however, that considerable variance in performance exists and many more local users self‐organize and are successful than is consistent with the conventional theory. Parts of a new theory are presented here.     

The Individual-Level Determinants of Exiting German Parties

With respect to explaining declining party membership, the question who leaves political parties and why has so far been neglected. This article aims to fill this gap by applying Hirschman’s theory of “Exit, Voice, and Loyalty” to both current and former party members, and at combining it with the resource model of political participation. We find that neither individual resources nor reasons for discontent are sufficient to explain the different reactions to discontent, but that the exit-voice-loyalty model has a certain explanatory power.     

Alleviating poverty through resource provision: The case of a South African agricultural project

The article documents the findings of a qualitative study that assessed the sustainability of providing resources for poverty alleviation. It argues that access to resources does not assure livelihood security. The study also argues that the ability to sustain resources, rather than merely facilitating access, assures poverty alleviation and livelihood security. Using a qualitative research method and the sustainable livelihoods approach, the article assesses the activities and performance of a small group of women in a government-sponsored agricultural project. The findings reveal that exited projects struggle to sustain themselves and that assetting alone – without skills, capacity, sense of ownership and a clear focus – does not yield the sustainability necessary for poverty alleviation. The conclusion is made that although resources are a necessary first step towards poverty alleviation, sustainable resource management should be highly valued in the process. The article recommends that agriculture-based development projects not be seen as the only option for the rural poor, as knowledge of farming is indeed crucial.     

Multilateral resource cooperation among Northeast Asian countries: Energy and mineral joint venture prospects

Northeast Asia is one of the world’s richest regions in energy and mineral resources. The tremendous reserve base is enhancing prospects for multilateral economic cooperation in the region, including the exploration, development, trade, and utilization of hydrocarbons and precious metals. This article examines the emerging opportunities for regional cooperation in resources within Northeast Asia, while also reviewing historical cooperation in the energy and minerals industry. Potential obstacles to multilateral resource cooperation are also identified. The authors conclude that small- to medium-scale joint venture projects involving energy and minerals have a more reasonable chance of being established in Northeast Asia than do mega-projects.     

Natural resource rent and stakeholder politics in Africa: towards a new conceptualisation

This paper critically revisits the debate on natural resource rent, curse and conflict, interrogating some of the key assumptions that have become received knowledge in extant discourses. The paper demonstrates how orthodox theories’ preoccupation with issues of resource rent and resource curse tend to be marred by slants of ahistoricity and state-centricity. Adopting a stakeholder approach to the issues of resource rent and conflict in Africa, the author argues that natural resource rents produce and attract a multiplicity of competitive stakeholders, both domestic and external, in the resource-rich states. The competition and jostling of stakeholders for access to, and appropriation of, rentier resources is too often an antagonistic process in many emerging economies that has consequences and implications for violent conflict. The paper attempts a new conceptual explanation of how natural resource rents dialectically generate stakes, stakeholders and political conflict. The paper concludes by proposing the need for the more conflict-prone African rentier states to transition to a more functional state model, the transformative state.     

国际海盗问题与中国海上通道安全

作为世界贸易大国和能源进口大国,中国的发展越来越依赖于海外,海上通道安全对保障中国国家安全的重要性日益凸显。海盗作为一种国际犯罪行为,严重影响国际海上航运安全,也对中国海上战略通道安全构成现实威胁。海盗治理成为关系到中国海上通道安全的重大问题,必须采取积极有效措施加以解决。为此,我们必须进一步完善国内反海盗立法和反海盗机制;充分发挥联合国的作用,建立打击海盗、维护海上通道安全的长效机制;积极推动反海盗的国际和地区合作;增强防御海盗的力量和意识,重视远洋海军建设;坚持标本兼治,积极推进海盗所属国或地区的和平、发展和稳定。     

金融危机后的俄罗斯

普京治下的经济复苏,改善了俄罗斯的财政状况,提高了人民的生活水平,但没有使俄罗斯经济实现成功转型。全球金融危机暴露了俄罗斯经济状况的本质:普京八年的俄罗斯经济只是"恢复性增长",而非以投资和创新所驱动的可持续性增长,对能源仍然高度依赖。虽然危机之后俄经济有所恢复,但与能源价格上涨密切相关,其现代化进程任重道远。2012年之后的俄罗斯仍然将是一个缺少竞争力且严重依赖能源资源出口的国家。     

Challenges to the elite exclusion–inclusion dichotomy — reconsidering elite capture in community-based natural resource management

The community-driven, decentralised approach to natural resource management has reached a crossroads. The good governance agenda in the water, forestry, fishery and biodiversity sectors has generated limited success in achieving pro-poor outcomes. In many cases, local elites are to blame for capturing the benefits from the process of democratising decision-making processes. This paper examines two approaches in the literature which both aim to address elite domination, namely elite exclusion and elite inclusion. The former is a deliberate act to reduce the influence of elites by excluding them from the decision-making process in natural resource management. The latter, in contrast, is a conscious strategy to integrate elites into the use of natural resources in an attempt to redistribute the benefits to poor people via the ‘trickle down’ effect. This paper argues that the dichotomy of elite inclusion and exclusion is inadequate in understanding the complex local power dynamics in natural resource management. In particular, the binary division fails to address the multiple locations of elites, overlapping institutions and the paradoxes of ‘controlled’ participatory processes. This paper argues that any strategies to tackle elite capture need to pay attention to the historical, socially embedded and negotiated nature of resource governance arrangements.     

日本城市能源利用与节能减排

日本是世界第三大经济实体,同时也是资源消费大国。作为一个本身自然资源匮乏的国度,日本是如何在发展经济的同时,克服了能源短缺的问题?又是如何在提高能源利用效率的同时将对环境的污染控制到最低限度的?围绕上述问题,探讨日本在城市能源利用方面的节能措施以及对新能源在环保领域中所起的重要作用的同时,梳理了在京都会议后,日本的节能环保技术、理念,以及未来的发展趋势,以期为中国解决在新常态下,在推动城镇化经济发展的同时所面临的能源以及环境问题提供思路。