论印尼恩鲁克网络的形成与发展

印度尼西亚是世界上穆斯林人口最多的国家,其穆斯林人口占印尼总人口的88%。2002年10月12日巴厘岛爆炸案发生后,伊斯兰祈祷团逐渐引起了世界各国的关注。伊斯兰祈祷团的创建过程实际上就是"恩鲁克网络"的组织过程。本文以总部设在布鲁塞尔的国际危机组织对伊斯兰祈祷团披露的信息为主要依据,分析恩鲁克网络的建立过程、组织结构及运作方式,进而深入探究恩鲁克网络与伊斯兰祈祷团一脉相承的关系。     

泛伊斯兰背景下“伊斯兰国”对东南亚的渗透

"伊斯兰国"是当前世界上最新型的恐怖主义组织,尤以强大的渗透力、狂热的吸引力、广泛的传播力而著称。在泛伊斯兰背景下,"伊斯兰国"恐怖组织的外溢效应很快波及印马菲泰等穆斯林人口众多的东南亚国家,使东南亚迅疾成为"伊斯兰国"渗透的主要地区之一。"伊斯兰国"通过招募成员、媒介宣传、设立分支机构等多种渗透方式在东南亚地区形成了严密的扩张网,使该地区面临着严峻的恐怖主义威胁,使东南亚国家的反恐工作面临极大的挑战。本研究就"伊斯兰国"在东南亚传播与扩张的主要方式、影响,以及东南亚国家的应对进行了必要的探讨。     

东南亚恐怖主义的层累构造与演化逻辑

东南亚恐怖主义的形成有其特殊条件,是多种矛盾层累式构造的结果。东南亚各国历史上复杂的政治经济结构、族群社会结构带来的社会矛盾和族群矛盾构成了东南亚恐怖主义的基座。伊斯兰复兴运动衍生的极端伊斯兰意识形态以及基地组织在东南亚的扩散和"演进"成为东南亚恐怖主义成长的关键因素。美国发动的全球反恐战争给穆斯林带来选择困境,爱好和平的穆斯林同样需要抵制西方社会对伊斯兰教"污名化"的侵袭,反而为极端组织的成长提供了生命力。因为情势的不同,东南亚各国的反恐陷入集体行动的困境,固化了层累式构造的矛盾,影响了反恐行动与反恐合作。     

"窥园细看百卉动"——评《当代东南亚伊斯兰:发展与挑战》

东南亚伊斯兰是当代伊斯兰世界的一个特殊组成部分,<当代东南亚伊斯兰:发展与挑战>一书首次对其进行了全面介绍.该书围绕东南亚伊斯兰的本土化与现代化进程,对东南亚伊斯兰的发展历程予以了多学科视角下的评介,也对东南亚极端势力等影响当代东南亚伊斯兰发展的因素进行了审慎客观的论述.该书资料翔实,立论严谨,是一部具有学术价值的开创性著作.     

嬗变中的东南亚伊斯兰教育

伊斯兰教育是东南亚国家教育体制的一个重要组成部分.长期以来,伊斯兰学校在传承伊斯兰宗教文化、维系东南亚伊斯兰社会方面发挥着重要的作用.20世纪以来,随着东南亚国家向现代化与世俗化的转变,东南亚伊斯兰教育也从传统的宗教教育逐渐向以宗教教育与世俗教育并重的教育体制转变.近年来,随着伊斯兰极端主义势力在东南亚地区的复兴,以瓦哈比派教义为中心的原教旨主义思想也逐渐蔓延渗透到东南亚的伊斯兰学校,有的伊斯兰学校甚至成为传播伊斯兰原教旨主义意识形态的基地与中心,严重威胁该地区的稳定与安全.当代东南亚伊斯兰教育的发展及其政治走向,已经引起学术界与国际社会的普遍关注.     

东南亚伊斯兰非政府组织的产生、发展及其作用

东南亚伊斯兰非政府组织的产生、发展及其作用具有正面的积极意义.它分为两类,一类产生于殖民主义时期,与伊斯兰民族主义紧密相联,并在当代东南亚市民社会发挥着第三部门的作用;另一类产生于20世纪80年代末至90年代初,与现代化浪潮相关联,更多地关注穆斯林个人的发展,并在塑造市民社会中扮演着十分重要的角色.在印尼和马来西亚穆斯林人口占绝大多数的国家里,伊斯兰非政府组织在数量和影响上,都强于穆斯林占少数的其他东南亚国家.     

东南亚伊斯兰极端主义势力及其影响

东南亚伊斯兰极端主义势力虽然人数不多,但是影响极大.其产生与东南亚当地的政治、经济和文化等因素密不可分,同时国际上的伊斯兰复兴运动对其也有很大的影响.为维护本国的安定,东南亚各国政府纷纷加大对伊斯兰极端主义势力的打击力度.     

东南亚伊斯兰非政府组织的产生、发展及其作用

东南亚伊斯兰非政府组织的产生、发展及其作用具有正面的积极意义。它分为两类,一类产生于殖民主义时期,与伊斯兰民族主义紧密相联,并在当代东南亚市民社会发挥着第三部门的作用;另一类产生于20世纪80年代末至90年代初,与现代化浪潮相关联,更多地关注穆斯林个人的发展,并在塑造市民社会中扮演着十分重要的角色。在印尼和马来西亚穆斯林人口占绝大多数的国家里,伊斯兰非政府组织在数量和影响上,都强于穆斯林占少数的其他东南亚国家。     

伊斯兰教与东南亚国家现代化关系刍议

东南亚是世界穆斯林人口最多的地区之一,伊斯兰教对穆斯林占人口多数的印尼、马来西亚和文莱的现代化进程产生深刻影响,也对穆斯林人口占少数的新加坡、泰国和菲律宾现代化进程产生一定影响.本文认为由于伊斯兰国家的政治制度、经济发展水平、教育程度、社会结构、国际环境不同,伊斯兰与现代化的关系是多样的,不仅中东和东南亚地区伊斯兰与现代化的关系有较大不同,而且东南亚国家间亦有较大差别,表现出伊斯兰与现代化关系的多样性.     

华人与伊斯兰教在爪哇的传播

国外学术界对东南亚伊斯兰化的研究经历了一个变化过程。70年代之前,多数学者侧重于探讨伊斯兰教由何处,如何传入东南亚。一般认为伊斯兰教或来自阿拉伯,或南印度的古吉拉特,或孟加拉。伊斯兰教是通过三种方式传入东南亚的:其一,由穆斯林商人传     

Reassessing the Causes of Nongovernmental Terrorism in Latin America

For years, nongovernmental terrorism in Latin America was considered an epiphenomenon of the Cold War. The persistence of this type of political violence in the 1990s, however, not only belied many assumptions about its causes but also led scholars to reexamine the phenomenon. This article investigates the validity of a number of hypotheses by applying a pooled time-series cross-section regression analysis to data from 17 Latin American countries between 1980 and 1995. Findings indicate that nongovernmental terrorist acts in Latin America are more likely to occur in poorly institutionalized regimes characterized by varying degrees of political and electoral liberties, a deficient rule of law, and widespread human rights violations. The analysis also shows that nongovernmental terrorism in the region tends to surface in cyclical waves; but it finds no association between economic performance or structural economic conditions and the incidence of nongovernmental terrorism.     

The Iraq treaty, 1930

India's relations with the Gulf countries started to flourish in the 1990s after India succeeded in de-hyphenating Pakistan from its policy toward the Gulf. Though Pakistan remained a factor as it continued to raise Kashmir and internal situation in India at multilateral forums such as OIC to evoke anti-India sentiments, it did not remain an underlying factor in as was the case during the Cold War era. In the contemporary dynamics, when India-Gulf relations are progressing toward strategic partnerships, Pakistan has re-emerged as a factor but its nature has changed. As highlighted in the joint statements issued during the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visits to the Gulf countries since May 2014, India can now put pressure on Pakistan by highlighting its policy of sponsoring terrorism. This was evident when the Arab Gulf countries condemned the Pathankot (January 2016) and Uri (September 2016) terrorist attacks. India's relations with the Arab Gulf and other Middle Eastern countries are independent of their engagements with Pakistan and India-Pakistan tension, but New Delhi has stepped up efforts to raise the issue of cross-border terrorism and use of religion to incite terror activities against India during its engagements with these countries. It underlines the growing convergence between India and Arab Gulf countries over regional issues and the ability of India to isolate Pakistan over issues related to terrorism.     

Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria: The international dimension

The terrorist group Boko Haram, or the self-described People of the Tradition of the Prophet (SAW) for Preaching and Striving, continues to terrorise Nigeria, with horrible consequences. Clearly, study of the problem cannot be disconnected from the complex nature of Boko Haram itself, considering the group's unclear agenda and its shadowy sponsors — internal or external. A key question regarding the nature of Boko Haram is whether it has a transnational dimension or not. This paper examines the nature of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria. It argues that Boko Haram's terrorism does indeed have a transnational dimension, demonstrating that its agenda and targets transcend Nigeria, and that there are international links to the operations of Boko Haram. Given this international dimension, what concerns does Boko Haram generate for countries outside Nigeria, and what are their responses to the group's continued acts of terrorism? This analysis is contextualised within the charged debate on the definition of terrorism and the modern trend of religious terrorism in the international arena.     

Africa and the war on terror

An analysis of the links between weak states and terrorism; strategies to combat the spread of terrorism in countries where populations may be vulnerable; and a look at Africa's situation in the US's war against terror.     

“9·11”后美国在东南亚的反恐活动

"9·11"后,美国将注意力集中到东南亚,将之视为反恐战争的"第二战线".在东南亚的反恐活动中,美国着重于打击海上恐怖主义袭击,在与东南亚国家加强反恐合作的同时,也对东南亚几个国家提供了军事援助和联合进行反恐军事演习.     

核恐怖主义与奥巴马政府核战略

基于国际核安全环境的变化和对核恐怖主义威胁的认知,同时为了提升美国在核军控领域的制度和话语霸权,也为了干涉其他国家内政、服务其全球和地区战略,奥巴马政府大大提升了反核恐怖主义政策在美国核战略中的地位。鉴于这一政策为美国在核军控领域制度和话语霸权服务的狭隘性质,它不可避免地存在以下缺陷:反核恐怖主义政策因果关系颠倒;反核恐怖主义政策的目标指向存在一定失误;美国核政策自身存在矛盾。正是由于存在着上述缺陷,决定了奥巴马政府反核恐怖主义政策必然会对国际反核恐怖主义努力产生双重影响。     

In the Aftermath of the Storm: US Foreign Policy in the Wake of 9/11 and its Implications for the Asia-Pacific region

In the following article, Kurt M. Campbell, senior vice-president and director of the International Security Program (ISP) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, DC., and Yuki Tatsumi, ISP research associate at CSIS, explore the changes that have taken place in US foreign policy since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and how such changes might be reflected on its policy toward the Asia-Pacific region. They point out that the US will shift its focus to security at home and war on terrorism abroad. In the short-term, US focus will deviate from Northeast Asia to Southeast, Central and South Asia, but as the region will continue to be strategically important, the US will remain engaged in the region. It is up to the countries in the Asia-Pacific to ensure that the US engagement in their region is not dominated by unilateralism and excessive preoccupation with the war against terrorism.     

印尼、马来西亚大选后的政治与经济情况述评

印尼与马来西亚是同文同种并具有共同宗教信仰的国家,国情也有许多相似之处.2004年是两国的大选年,大选后马来西亚巴达维政权稳固发展,印尼苏西洛新政府加大反贪反恐和重建经济的力度,两国将步入稳定发展时期.     

马六甲海峡与东南亚地区安全

马六甲海峡面临海盗与恐怖分子的威胁,海峡沿岸国--印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡为维护海峡安全,执行了一系列安全措施,但由于力量有限,故要求海峡使用国"负担分摊".而海峡使用国因涉及到主权的敏感问题,只能提供有关培训、设备和信息情报等援助.这些情况说明,保卫马六甲海峡安全的任务应由海峡沿岸国和海峡使用国共同承担,只有通过密切的国际合作,才能确保马六甲海峡与东南亚地区安全,才能有效地打击海盗和恐怖主义活动.     

Targeting islamist terrorism in asia pacific: an unending war

Three years into the US-led “War on Terror,” the international coalition against terrorism remains fragmented. Despite the killings of many key al Qaeda leaders as well as worldwide disruption of its bases, financial infrastructures and networks, al Qaeda has demonstrated remarkable regenerative and adoptive capabilities. Al Qaeda remains resilient enough—mutating into new forms and adapting to the changing operational environment—to continue with its campaign of terror, targeting not only the interests of the United States, but its allies and supporters worldwide. At the strategic level, the spirit of cooperation has been undermined by some of the policies of the United States. At a tactical level, the failure can be attributed to two major factors. One is the failure to understand the nature of the threat, especially the “al Qaeda phenomenon” in its entirety, including the vision, sense of mission, capabilities, acumen and the organizational skills of Osama bin Laden. Second, and most important, is the failure to address the core issues and the ideology that underlie the militant Islamist threat.

With Iraq emerging as the new epicenter of global terrorism, the center of gravity of terrorism seems to have shifted back to the Middle East. However, this does not make the threat less salient in the Asia Pacific region. In the region, the threat lies in the ideological challenge posed by an alternative vision of the state represented by a pan-Islamic caliphate or by the ideal of an Islamic state governed by Shar'ia law. It is therefore incumbent upon Asia Pacific countries to manage the threat of radical Islamic terrorism by preventing transnational groups such as al Qaeda from utilizing separatist and ethnic or religious conflicts in the region for their broader global revolutionary agenda.