后金融危机时代中东欧欧盟国家的政党政治结构变迁

中东欧国家政党与政治结构有着特殊的不稳定性,而这个不稳定性与中东欧国家社会、经济转型高度关联。2008年金融危机和2009年欧债危机无疑加剧了人们对于这一不稳定性的担忧。通过对选举结果的实证研究并全面分析和梳理后金融危机时代中东欧国家政党政治变迁的总体结构后可以发现,中右、中左两大政治力量主导政坛的格局没有发生动摇,任何意识形态的极端势力也没有利用金融危机崛起。这就需要讨论中东欧国家转型过程中具有特色的政党政治生态环境,并对其影响政府运作进行研究,为把握中东欧国家目前的政党政治转型特征提供有分析力的解释。     

国际金融危机冲击下中东欧国家经济走势分析

2000-2007年,中东欧国家的经济总体上呈平稳快速发展的趋势,2007年国际金融危机爆发后,中东欧转轨国家经济形势迅速恶化.国际金融危机对中东欧国家经济的冲击和影响与这些国家转型后形成的制度基础和经济发展模式有关.本文就国际金融危机对这些国家经济的冲击,从多个侧面分析相关原因,并对未来发展趋势进行了预测.     

区域价值链视角下的中东欧国家经济转型——以波兰、匈牙利、捷克和斯洛伐克为分析对象

本文以区域价值链为视角,分析研究了中东欧波兰、匈牙利、捷克和斯洛伐克四国在全球与欧洲区域价值链中的位置与角色,包括其进出口产业结构和行业价值链特征。通过研究发现,以德国为核心的欧洲区域价值链构建是中东欧四国经济转型成功的必要前提,中东欧四国既有的产业配套基础、开放的市场与适度的劳动力技能,是其融入以德国为核心的区域价值链的充分条件,中东欧四国搭载与融入德国产业链推动了经济转型的成功。关于中东欧经济转型的研究成果显示,中东欧四国通过制造业产业融入全球和区域价值链所取得的成就,证明了实体经济与中高端制造作为国家经济"压舱石"的重要性,而如何迎接新技术革命的挑战,以研发和创新维护和提升自身在全球与区域价值链中的能力,成为中东欧四国继续转型与发展的新问题。     

德国对中国-中东欧国家关系的影响——以斯洛文尼亚和黑山两国为例

<正>德国无疑是绝大多数中东欧国家最重要的政治和经济合作伙伴,尤其是在贸易和投资等领域。金融危机之后,这一趋势更加明显。由于德国将中东欧国家视为其经济"后院"及势力范围,因此,中国一中东欧合作机制,特别是中国在该地区基础设施建设领域的参与,引起了德国的极大关注。德国对"16+1合作"机制的看法对中国一中东欧合作的未来发展极为重要。一德国在中东欧国家的地位对于绝大多数中东欧国家而言,与德国保持更密切的关系就等同于在更大程度上     

“16+1合作”平台下的中国和中东欧国家合作及其在“一带一路”倡议中的作用

<正>中国在2011/2012年度提出的与中东欧16国开展对话的倡议引发了一系列反响。布鲁塞尔和西欧国家的最初看法是,中国此举可能会引起欧盟成员国的分裂。但在2008年金融危机及随后爆发的金融风暴的背景下,中东欧国家急切地想获得来自中国的投资。争相成为中国进入欧洲的"经济门户"。中国强调"16+1合作"将是双赢的,于所有参与方都是有利的。随着时间的推移,"16+1合作"平台已经成为中国和中东欧国家间建设相对成熟的合作平台。2013年习近平主席首次提出了"新丝绸之路经济带"和"21世纪海上丝绸之路"(合称"一带一路")的倡议。与古丝绸之路相似,"一带一路"倡议主要致力于实现亚     

俄罗斯、欧盟和美国在中东欧国家的竞争与合作

冷战结束后,随着世界多极化和经济全球化的不断发展,欧洲格局也进行着持续调整.俄罗斯在中东欧影响消退后,美国随即借由北约势力迅速东扩,同时欧盟也逐渐接纳了中东欧10个转型的前社会主义国家作为成员国.普京时代,俄也扩大了对其邻国影响力.由此,中东欧国际体系结构逐渐趋向多极化,出于对全球战略、地缘政治和经济利益的考虑,饿欧美三方在中东欧地区的利益格局变得愈加错综复杂,三方之间特别是俄与美欧之间的博弈频繁,与此同时,三方在博弈中也无法忽略中东欧国家的主体性.     

“一带一路”倡议背景下的中国与中东欧国家合作

<正>编者按:在"一带一路"倡议逐步落实、中国与中东欧国家合作稳步发展的背景下,中国与中东欧学界的学术交流与合作正在走向深化。在"中国-中东欧国家智库交流与合作网络"(简称"16+1智库网络")的组织协调下,中欧学界有关"一带一路"倡议以及中国与中东欧国家合作等议题的研究成果不断涌现。基于这些成果,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所"16+1智库网络"秘书处与《欧洲研究》编辑部联合组织了本次     

中东欧独联体政治经济转型20年: 约束条件与转型政策、策略选择

回顾中东欧独联体国家转型走过的道路,可以发现,转型的方式和路径受制于转型的约束条件.其中,政治转型与经济转型的相互制约关系尤为复杂.在复杂的约束条件下,转型的政策空间是受限的.转型目标、转型的策略选择与次序安排相互制约,共同规定了转型的基本方向和演进轨迹.     

日本的中东欧政策及对中国“16+1合作”的影响分析

日本对中东欧国家的政策,中国学界尚缺乏研究。本文分别从全球层面、欧洲层面、次区域合作层面以及双边层面四个维度,分析日本推动同中东欧国家关系的主要目的和框架安排,总结日本目前与中东欧国家开展合作的主要措施:机制化建设、资金和技术支持与援助、推进经贸关系发展以及文化合作。同时,本文对日本针对中国"16+1合作"而采取的四大基本政策——价值观外交、安全领域合作、高技术领域合作、推进民主化和转型工作也一一进行分析。在比较分析中日双方对中东欧政策的基础上,针对中日两国对中东欧国家的不同政策特点与优劣,提出一系列推进"16+1合作"的政策建议:加快投资协定谈判,做好自贸协定谈判调研;开展第三方合作、取长补短;对接中东欧和欧盟关注领域,实现互利共赢;官方金融机构和私营或中小机构融资相互结合等。     

冷战后国际民主化视角下的中东欧政治转型——基于若干国际民主测评指标的批判性分析

20世纪90年代前后,国际共产主义运动范畴内的东欧剧变与"第三波"民主化浪潮中的东欧国家政治转型呈现叠加状态,为冷战后的中东欧政治转型提供了另一重观察与研究的视角。然而,自冷战结束后,以西式自由民主为核心的话语体系及其研究范式却始终牢牢占据国际民主化与中东欧政治转型研究领域的主导地位,甚至形成某种意义上的话语霸权,而由少数西方大国主导的国际民主测评指标体系在其中无疑扮演着极为重要的工具性角色。本文从冷战后国际民主化背景下的中东欧政治转型研究出发,结合对当前国际上有关民主测量与评估的若干主要指标体系的批判性分析,尝试在廓清西方民主测评指标体系"科学""中立"迷思的同时,对30年来中东欧地区的民主化进程及其最新发展状况进行相应的再审视与再反思。     

Putting the pieces together: 40 years of fertility trends across 19 post-socialist countries

Demographic change has been a key consequence of transition, but few studies trace fertility trends across countries over time. We describe fertility trends immediately before and after the fall of state socialism across 19 Central and Eastern European and Central Asian countries. We found a few common patterns that may reflect economic and political developments. The countries that experienced the most successful transitions and integration into the EU experienced marked postponement of parenthood and a moderate decline in second and third births. Little economic change in the poorest transition countries was accompanied by less dramatic changes in childbearing behavior. In western post-Soviet contexts, and somewhat in Bulgaria and Romania, women became more likely to only have one child but parenthood was not substantially postponed. This unique demographic pattern seems to reflect an unwavering commitment to parenthood but economic conditions and opportunities that did not support having more than one child. In addition, we identify countries that would provide fruitful case studies because they do not fit general patterns.     

From Planning to Market: A Framework for Cuba

The measures introduced by Raúl Castro since 2008 and the most recent US–Cuba policy change indicate that Cuba is shifting from a planned and highly centralised state socialist economic model toward one in which economic actors and markets become main drivers of the economy. The examples of Asian and Central and Eastern European socialist countries suggest four distinguished pathways for such transition. The question is which one may provide a feasible model for Cuba. Based on the country's economic and population structure, this study places the Cuban case within the framework of socialist economic transitions and explores some policy implications.     

Migration in the enlarged European Union: Empirical evidence for labour mobility in the Baltic states

Abstract

The free movement of workers again is a hot issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper analyses the socio-economic and demographic impacts of migration in the context of the next EU enlargement. How many people might migrate from the Eastern European transition countries to Western Europe, and what will be the socio-economic and demographic consequences of this emigration for the home countries? After providing a short overview of the theoretical literature and the empirical evidence on the socio-economic determinants of migration, the next section discusses the historical evidence of the migrant flows from the candidate countries into the EU. We draw on suggestions from the literature as well as on our empirical work. In the following parts, we evaluate the size and the structure of current and future migration to Western Europe following the opening up of the transition countries in the beginning of the 1990s. This part quantitatively evaluates the future migration pressure, based on the economic and demographic situation in the Baltic states and Western Europe. In the last section, we discuss the policy implication of our econometric analysis, and draw policy conclusions.     

Industrial restructuring in CEE regions: determinants of regional growth in the accession and in the crisis period

After the fall of the Iron Curtain, intense processes of industrial reconversion occurred in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Adopting a territorial perspective, the aim of this paper is to assess the impact of industrial restructuring on the economic growth of CEE regions, classified according to the typology of the industrial reconversion that occurred. Results point out that those areas able to reconvert their productive specialization to both new sectors and higher value functions achieved the best economic performance. These findings provide interesting insights on the past mechanisms of growth in CEE countries and they convey relevant policy implications for their future industrial strategies.     

中亚国家经济转型的政治—制度基础:来自中国的经验

中亚地区由于地理上和经济上的重要性,以及其尚未完成的转型进程,日益成为国际上高度关注的焦点.本文的目的是详细说明经济转型过程中一个牢靠的政治-制度基础(politico-institutional foundation)是必不可少的;本文还要探讨中亚国家建立这样一个基础的方法.出于相似政治方面的条件,本文把表现出色的中国作为中亚国家发展方向的范例.     

The politics of bank ownership and currency policies in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper argues that state-owned, private domestic, and foreign banks have different preferences for exchange rate policies. More specifically, I posit that governments will be less willing and able to maintain fixed exchange rate arrangements in closed banking systems dominated by government-owned banks than in globalized banking systems with a large presence of foreign banks. The article’s principal claim rests on the notion that ownership structure of the banking system empowers different types of banks, affects their interests, and shapes the responsiveness of government politicians to bank demands. The bank ownership types further influence the stability of the domestic monetary system and financial regulation that are of paramount importance in the determination of exchange rate regimes. An empirical investigation of data on exchange rate regimes for 25 Central and Eastern European countries provides strong support for the theory. The results are robust to alternative estimation techniques, instrumental variable analysis, and the inclusion of several economic and political variables.     

“欧洲化”进程与中东欧国家的政党政治变迁

随着欧盟因素的介入,中东欧各国在政治经济和社会生活方面发生了许多重要变化,即出现了学界所称的欧洲化现象,中东欧国家政党也不可避免地受到了欧洲化进程的影响。作为一种超越国家层面的政治社会化过程,欧洲化促使中东欧国家的政党做出调整和改变,以适应新的定位和功能。同时,在欧洲化深入的过程中,中东欧国家的政党政治也面临着巨大的困难和挑战。     

The Hamburg election of 19 September 1993

The transformation of Polish–German relations since the end of the Cold War has been a success story. The two countries are linked by a community of interests founded on common values and goals. Although Germany, in its policies towards Central and Eastern Europe, occasionally attaches too much weight to trying to mollify Russia, the united Germany has supported the Eastern enlargement of the EU and, ultimately, of the NATO. It genuinely wants ‘Western’ neighbours to its east. German foreign policy will continue to be characterised by continuity, with a strong emphasis on multilateralism. There is a danger, however, that Germany's European engagement and support for closer integration will be weakened by its preoccupation with its domestic economic and social problems.