危机的理论与理论的危机

本文介绍正统派与其他各种不同经济学派关于1997年东亚金融危机的生成根源的观点,展示各种经济学派对IMF休克拯救方案以及东亚经济复苏政策的不同看法,探索东亚金融危机对经济发展理论的影响。     

Russia’s economic policy in 2015–2016: the imperative of structural reform

In the aftermath of the global economic crisis, we have seen uneven development in the leading advanced and emerging economies, new models of economic growth that vary from country to country, uncertain prospects for globalization and challenges of “regional globalization,” looming currency re-configurations, as well as shifting energy price dynamics and their influence on political and economic prospects of particular states. This paper discusses current challenges for social and economic policy in the context of the history of the past 30 years. With reference to Russia, it focuses on a new growth model, structural transformation (including import-substitution issues), economic dynamics, fiscal and monetary concerns, and social issues. It concludes by addressing the priorities of economic policy.     

对"亚洲价值"的再认识--兼论"亚洲价值"被扭曲的过程及原因

20世纪90年代,"亚洲价值"被吵得沸沸扬扬,引起广泛关注,甚至被认为是东亚发展的精神支柱.但是1997年的金融危机却让"亚洲价值"顷刻之间容光尽失,人们又把导致危机的一切弊端的发端指向了"亚洲价值".现在,亚洲金融危机已经过去,对"亚洲价值"的讨论也已经冷却了许多.本文试图对"亚洲价值"在危机之前和之后的不同遭遇作出分析,并从历史的纵向的视角对"亚洲价值"进行再考察,提出"亚洲价值"的扇形分布结构图以及可分解的、有容纳性的、流动的"亚洲价值"观.     

The Transformation of Korean Business Groups after the Asian Crisis 1

This study examines the evolution of Korean business groups after the economic crisis. In particular, we investigate the post-crisis changes in their business structure and corporate governance system, which are argued to be major precipitating factors leading to the economic crisis. Our analysis suggests that the divestment intensity of non-core, highly indebted and low intra-group trade firms was higher for groups which survived the economic crisis, compared to the bankrupt groups. Besides, most surviving groups did not pursue diversification as actively as before the crisis, and their financial conditions remained favourable in the post-crisis period. The corporate governance of the groups has also improved in terms of corporate transparency, implementation of monitoring mechanisms and their accountability to shareholders. Therefore, it seems that Korean business groups have successfully implemented radical corporate transformation to adapt to the changed business environment after the crisis. But, the dominance of family management still remains as an important feature of Korean business groups.     

The rationale for and potential role of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement

This article examines the potential role the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) could play in stabilising countries experiencing a high degree of economic volatility. The CRA is a US$100 billion pooled reserve fund that has its origins in the fifth BRICS Summit hosted in Durban. The CRA was set up to help emerging nations deal with liquidity shortages and to strengthen financial systems during crisis. The article examines the debate on the effect of capital market liberalisation and collates some relevant macroeconomic data on the BRICS economies in order to explore the case for a contingent reserve facility. It is found that emerging economies that rapidly liberalised their capital accounts experienced increased economic volatility, creating an uncertain macroeconomic environment and hampering the ability of policymakers to conduct appropriate stabilisation policy. The article takes the position that the CRA could play an important role in providing liquidity to distressed emerging economies. However it concludes that the CRA facility does not signal a significant break from the Bretton Woods institutions on the part of the BRICS countries.     

马来西亚政府金融干预的经验与启示

本文主要探讨马来西亚政府对金融部门的干预措施及其对社会经济发展的作用。马来西亚政府的金融干预政策在促进本国金融深化、推动社会均衡发展方面成效显著;但在支持本国支柱产业的建设、促进工业化进程方面效果欠佳。这主要与马金融体制的局限性及其金融租金的分配有关。马政府对金融部门干预的实践给中国及其他发展中国家提供不少有益的启示。     

Developers and Speculators: Housing,Ethnic Chinese Business and the Asian Financial Crisis in Malaysia

Housing has played a central role in both the Asian and global financial crises, a decade apart. While there are major differences with respect to these roles, there are also similarities, the most obvious being the links with the banking system. The impact of these crises on the housing sector has been extensively researched, but findings have been overwhelmingly based on aggregate or sector data. Using firm-level data from Malaysia on the Asian financial crisis, this article argues that such findings can yield a distorted picture of what actually occurred in real estate markets where contextual factors played a major role. A study of ethnic Chinese businesses, which dominated the Malaysian housing sector, show that the severe impact was primarily on businesses that were over-leveraged and/or that speculated on housing in the expectation of reaping quick returns. They were small compared to the large property businesses that, though affected, survived. Non-residential real estate continued unaffected, fuelled by manufacturing to meet healthy export demand. This, and a political/economic environment accentuated by affirmative action which drove ethnic Chinese businesses toward real estate development, speaks powerfully to the importance of context in understanding specific housing markets during crises.     

全球问题与全球治理

随着全球化的进展,全球问题也随之出现.全球问题具有其本身的特点,给人类社会的未来发展带来了严峻的挑战.由于全球问题的性质,造成了公用地的悲剧与集体行动的困境两种现象.解决全球问题,超出了单独一个国家的能力范围,需要国际社会共同协作加以解决,从制度上、理念到组织上等各方面进行全面的变革.针对全球问题,国际社会提出了全球治理的概念,本文探讨了全球政治的概念、治理的内涵、全球治理的含义、全球治理的构成因素以及全球治理结构等内容.     

东亚金融危机——制度、文化层面分析

东亚的崛起不仅改变了现有的世界经济和政治格局 ,而且向人们昭示 ,经济发展和现代化并非只有一个模式。然而 ,自 1 997年 7月以来在东亚地区爆发的金融危机 ,使许多人在一夜之间改变了对“东亚模式”的评价。有些舆论盖棺论定 ,认为东亚金融危机说明了“东亚模式”的脆弱性 ,“东亚模式”已经死亡 ,“东亚经济奇迹”已经终结。怎样正确评价“东亚模式” ?众说纷纭 ,莫衷一是。本文拟对上述看法提出一些自己的意见 ,并试从制度和文化层而对东亚金融危机发生的深层原因作出分析。笔者认为 ,东亚必须走制度创新与文化创新相结合的道路 ,才能获得可持续的发展     

印度金融自由化对中国金融体制改革的参照意义

本文通过对当代印度经济政策演变历程的分析,对印度的金融自由化进程中存在的问题以及金融危机的生成机理进行了梳理,并在相关的理论指导下对中国的金融改革提出了一些应对的思路.本文对于了解印度金融自由化并吸取其经验教训,促进我国金融体制改革,均具一定的现实意义.     

日本金融机构破产处理

泡沫经济崩溃后日本爆发金融危机,金融机构破产风潮由中小规模向大型金融机构波及。在金融机构破产制度建设方面,日本“护送船队”式行政保护凸显制度缺陷,政府实施了从时限性措施到永久性长效处理框架的制度改革,建立健全了常规处理和应对危机事态的特别处理机制,形成了以中央银行特别融资、存款保险制度和金融机构破产处理框架为中心的金融安全网,为维持信用秩序稳定、防止金融系统性风险扩散建立了较为完善的制度保障。     

金融危机以来的印尼社会问题

印尼的社会问题由来已久。随着金融危机的加深 ,印尼的社会问题不断恶化。它既阻碍了经济的发展 ,又影响了政局的稳定。如何解决社会问题 ,是印尼所面临的重大课题。本文就金融危机以来的印尼主要社会问题的表现、成因、对策作了分析 ,并从中得出几点启示。     

东盟面临的危机与挑战

本文探讨了东南亚国家联盟作为一个组织机构在这次亚洲金融危机中所起的作用。从各个国家来看 ,成员国们采取各种措施加强对银行的管理 ,加大金融交易的透明度 ,鼓励竞争 ;从双边关系来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们对受影响最严重的国家 ,尤其是对印度尼西亚进行了援助 ;从国际方面来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们共同呼吁发达国家继续开放市场 ,在重新谈判债务问题时更灵活些 ,在实施改革计划时要注意保护贫穷阶层的人士。本文追踪了在一系列会议上东南亚联盟的初衷 ,但是最后得出结论认为现有的经济合作项目有待进一步扩大合作领域 ,进一步加强责任感。