The United States as a Plural Society: Towards a Consociational Solution?

Although the United States is not a consociational democracy, it is of considerable interest to consociational scholars. Not only is it in many respects a plural society, its political practice and thought include rudimentary elements of consociationalism’s four defining characteristics. That these institutions and practices have not developed further is unsurprising, given the generally unfavorable conditions for racial or ideological consociationalism there. Furthermore, factors such as the U.S.’s competitive political culture and its history of racial inequality present special challenges for consociational theory and practice. Meanwhile, the possibilities for addressing current ideological polarization by consociational means are limited, while ideological cleavage as such presents its own challenges. Nevertheless, several areas for reform remain possible, while changing ethno‐demographic conditions could make U.S.‐American consociationalism more likely in the next several decades. Furthermore, these considerations open up several potentially fruitful lines for further research into consociational democracy and the conditions that foster it.     

Consociationalism and Centripetalism: Friends or Foes?

Two schools dominate the literature on democracy in divided societies: consociationalism and centripetalism. The first advocates group representation and power sharing while the second recommends institutions that promote multi‐ethnic parties. Although often presented as mutually exclusive choices, in reality many new democracies display a mix. Drawing on the experiences of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Fiji, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Northern Ireland, this article examines the empirical and theoretical relationship between centripetalism and consociationalism. The aim is to explore the conditions under which they reinforce each other (friends) or work at cross‐purposes (foes). A better understanding of the interaction between consociational and centripetal elements in post‐conflict societies not only yields a more nuanced picture of institutional dynamics, but also holds lessons for institutional design.     

欧洲主权债务危机与美国债务风险的比较分析

欧洲主权债务危机是1957年《罗马条约》签署以来欧洲面临的最大考验,欧元则遭遇了正式面世10年来最为严重的生存危机。欧洲主权债务危机的爆发,并非仅仅因为其债务问题非常严重,更主要的是因为欧洲的联合中存在着制度性的缺陷。为了克服这些制度性的缺陷,欧洲必须加强对成员国的财政监督、适度地统一管理欧洲的债务、引入惩罚和债务管理机制。一国退出欧元区将面临巨大的经济成本、政治成本和法律、技术方面的障碍。因此,欧元区解体是小概率事件,联合仍然是欧洲政治的主流和传统。和欧洲主权债务危机相比,美国债务问题面临的风险更大。     

The Political Side of Consociationalism Reconsidered: Switzerland between a Polarized Parliament and Delicate Government Collegiality

This paper builds upon the concept of “coalescent elite behaviour” which is crucial in consociational theory, but contested regarding its actual conceptualization. Contrary to Lijphart's (1968) original assumption that elites are generally committed to an “overarching cooperation”, we hypothesize that institutional venues must be taken in account. Thus, the aim of this paper is twofold: Conceptually, we try to clarify the nature of “amicable agreement” regarding two core institutions (i.e. parliament, government), and regarding executive‐legislative relations. Empirically, we follow a two‐step empirical approach that combines a cross‐time comparison of the decision‐making process regarding the revision of the Swiss basic pension scheme (AHV) with a cross‐case assessment following Fischer's two‐dimensional typology. More generally, our findings serve to inductively refine the “political side” of consociationalism.     

Switzerland on the Road from a Consociational to a Centrifugal Democracy?

Can Switzerland still be classified as an example of consociational democracy, characterized by power sharing and elite cooperation, by the second decade of the 21^st century? Drawing on Lijphart's typology of consociational and centrifugal regimes, an analysis of the transformation of Swiss democracy reveals that while Switzerland continues to display institutional elements of power sharing, a polarizing and competitive trend can be observed in the governing style of the elite. Increasingly adversarial elite behaviour and a growing polarization within parliament and government as well as with regards to referendums indicate a growing shift toward centrifugal democracy.     

The Transition to 'New' Social Democracy: The Role of Capitalism, Representation and (Hampered) Contestation

This article argues that existing accounts of the transformation from 'traditional' to 'new' social democracy has thus far only identified the contextual changes that have prompted this move. In doing so, they have failed to account for the motives of social democratic party actors in undertaking the transition to 'new' social democracy in response to those changes. The article draws upon a critical realist method, and Marxist and anti-representational theories, to conceptualise 'traditional' social democratic party relations as suffering from tensions between constituents' demands for decommodification, the attempt by party elites to contain (and thereby 'represent') those demands and the (in)compatibility of this process of containment with the need to recommodify social relations in the light of periodic crises in contemporary capitalism. It argues that these tensions explain the attempt by party elites to promote the move towards 'new' social democracy, the (eventual) acquiescence of party constituents to those attempts and the subsequent exit from social democratic constituencies which has resulted. The argument is made with reference to the British Labour Party and Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).     

Do Multicultural Democracies Really Require PR? Counterevidence from Switzerland

Central to consociational (or power‐sharing) theory is the claim that multicultural societies require electoral systems based on proportional representation (PR) in order to ensure a fair representation of the various cultural groups in parliament. In this context, Switzerland is often cited as a “PR country”, as well as the key example of successful consociationalism. This article argues that, in this respect, the Swiss experience does not support consociational theory as far as the representation of linguistic groups is concerned. The counterevidence is found by exploring the variety of Swiss electoral systems, both at the national level and in the four multilingual cantons. The article suggests that territoriality (i.e. definition of electoral districts) is the key variable for ensuring linguistic proportionality in parliament. When this is not possible, as is the case in some elections in the multilingual cantons, majoritarian systems sometimes do a better job than PR.     

Second chamber, ‘congress of ambassadors’ or federal presidency. Parliamentary and non-parliamentary aspects in the European Council's rules of procedure

The development of the European Union (EU) regime, with the frequent changes of institutions and their competencies by treaty revisions, allows for new opportunities for parliamentary studies. This article discusses the role and competencies of the European Council (EC) in the EU regime, using the heuristic and methodological resources of procedural commentaries, parliamentary rhetoric, conceptual history and political regime analysis. This study is a textual analysis, based on the 2009 Lisbon Treaty and especially on the EC's rules of procedure. The Lisbon Treaty and the respective rules of procedure serve as key documents that fix the rules, the framework and the margin of manoeuvre for the EU's institutions. This is particularly relevant in the European Union as a ‘polity in the making’, as continuous changes in institutional competencies are the rule. These changes both leave room for and are shaped by acting politically between and within the institutions. Taking Quentin Skinner's thesis that ‘political life itself sets the problems for the political theorist’ as a point of departure, it is suggested that these ongoing challenges in power relationships between the EU institutions also lead to interesting theoretical and conceptual moves. From this perspective the authors discuss possibilities to extend the conceptual apparatus of parliamentary studies to such quasi-parliamentary institutions focusing especially on the EC.     

Reconstituting European social democracy: Germany's pivotal role

After a long period of dominance by the centre‐right, social democracy is once more in the ascendancy in Europe. At the same time social democracy is cross‐cut by competing ideological paradigms, ranging from an unreformed or ‘traditional’ model through to the neo‐liberal tinged ‘Third Way’ agenda. With social democratic‐led governments in power in France, Germany and Great Britain, this ideological competition has to a certain extent been mapped onto these member states’ statecraft agendas. The article makes three points. First, that there is a high degree of institutional ‘fit’ between of the Federal Republic and the European Union and that this potentially favours the successful transfer of German policy initiatives to the EU level. Second, that the ‘Red‐Green model’ of political co‐operation between the SPD and Greens is grounded within the parameters of sub‐national politics and is not easily adapted to the demands of the national and supranational levels. Third, that as a result of this, any distinctively ‘German’ social democratic agenda for Europe is more likely to have the ideas of the ‘Neue Mitte’ at its core.     

Local Democracy and the Transformation of Popular Participation in Chile

Structural reforms, institutional arrangements, and the dominant mode of political party-base linkage all militate against effective popular participation in Chilean local democracy. Structural reforms have constrained local leaders' resources as well as their policymaking prerogatives; institutional arrangements limit public officials' accountability to their constituents and citizens' opportunities for input in decisionmaking. The parties of the center-left Concertación have reinforced this vicious cycle by pursuing a mode of linkage with civil society designed to promote their electoral success with only minimal organization and participation by their grassroots constituents. Such conditions fit well with the desire of elites of the Concertación and the right to depoliticize civil society in order to preserve macroeconomic and political stability. Yet they leave in doubt the efficacy of popular participation and the strength of local democracy in Chile.     

Between indifference and hesitation: France and EU enlargement towards the Balkans

Abstract

France’s hesitant stance on EU enlargement towards the Balkans is illustrative of a broader ambivalence among both French elites and citizens towards the European project. Despite principled support for the Balkans’ EU membership, achieving this step is no strategic priority for France. The official approach emphasizes strict conditionality and a rigorous monitoring of reform progress in aspirant countries. A hostile public opinion and superficial media coverage further strengthen the country’s reluctance to admit new, possibly unprepared candidates into the Union. Analysing the historical evolution of the French position on EU enlargement as well as its current political, institutional and societal expressions, this article construes France’s disinvestment from the Balkans’ EU perspective as the result of failed expectations and a growing disillusionment with the EU’s international role and its political future more broadly.     

Democracy and Taiwan-mainland China ties: A critique of three dominant views

The advent of democracy in Taiwan creates regime asymmetry between Taiwan and mainland China. Given that the size asymmetry so acutely favors mainland China, does democracy make Taiwan better or worse off? Taiwan’s principal opposition party posits that democracy presents a viable shortcut to an independent Taiwanese nation-state. A second perspective, held by proactive unificationists, emphasizes that Taiwan’s democracy, through a demonstration effect, can trigger or accelerate the long overdue political transformation of the mainland, and thereby contribute to the unification of the “greater China.” The third position, held by the mainstream ruling elites, highlights the corrosive and divisive effects that democracy may generate to undermine Taiwan’s political defense against her hereditary adversary. All three views are flawed. The first two are unwarrantedly sanguine and incorrectly assume risk neutrality as opposed to risk aversion for the majority of voters in Taiwan. The third perspective is an overstatement. Democracy permits subethnic cleavages to surface, but it also provides legitimate institutional devices to peacefully deal with intricate issues Taiwan faces, namely, her identity and her ties to the mainland.     

Political mistrust in southern Europe since the Great Recession

The political effects of the Great Recession on southern Europe were substantial. The rapid economic deterioration of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain from 2008 onwards was accompanied by an increase in citizens’ dissatisfaction towards national political institutions. The sources of political mistrust in the southern periphery were of a political and economic nature. Using quantitative data from EU member states from 2000 to 2015, this paper evaluates the suitability of competing theories in explaining this shift in political attitudes in southern European countries. It first hypothesizes that political mistrust is explained by citizens’ rationalist evaluations of changing macroeconomic performance. It also hypothesizes that political mistrust changes according to institutional performance. The paper argues that economic crises act as an external shock that places politics, politicians and institutions in the spotlight as a result of citizens’ deteriorating performance of the economy. The findings suggest that unemployment, public debt and political corruption are key variables in understanding short-term changes in political mistrust.     

“欧洲学期”机制探析

"欧洲学期"机制是欧盟为应对和克服主权债务危机而推出的一项深化和扩大政策协调、完善其经济治理的重大改革举措。本文通过对"欧洲学期"机制产生的背景、主要内容与创新、其初期效果以及对欧洲一体化进程的影响的分析,认为该机制虽然在政策有效性和合法性上存在一些不足之处,但在制度设计上具有明显的创新和突破,标志着欧盟财政协调制度向前迈进了实质性的重要一步。     

“规范性力量”遭遇“新大博弈”:欧盟在中亚推进民主的三重困境

作为“规范性力量”的欧盟,一直在中亚地区实施民主推进计划,以扩散西方自由、民主、人权、善治和法治等价值观念。为了评估欧盟在中亚地区推进规范议程的效果,本文构建了一个涵盖欧盟“自我”和中亚地区相关“他者”的分析框架。对于欧盟“自我”,本文着重考察了其规范绩效状况;对于中亚地区的相关“他者”,则着重分析了俄罗斯对欧盟形成的规范竞争,以及中亚国家对欧盟规范议程产生的规范共鸣现象。就欧盟在中亚地区推进自由民主模式产生的规范绩效、规范竞争与规范共鸣而言,其表现均不尽人意,且难以在短期内扭转。面对上述困境,欧盟意识到应着眼于中亚地区更长远的发展态势,以一种潜移默化的方式引导各国通过渐进的方式走上西方式发展道路。2019年6月,欧盟新出台的中亚战略正是反映了这一思路。     

Moving towards EU membership and away from liberal democracy

ABSTRACT

The article concludes the Special Issue, Illiberal Politics in Southeast Europe, on the retreat of liberal democracy in the region. It focuses on the central themes that link all the papers together: free and fair elections, media freedom, judicial independence, privileged access to public resources and the role of civil society. It seeks to disentangle the causes and consequences of illiberal politics in the region and explores the similarities in the illiberal practices and strategies incumbents use with the aim of staying in power indefinitely. The main argument is that democratic backsliding in Southeast Europe is deeply rooted in the unfinished transitions of the 1990s, which gave rise to new political and economic elites and that blending those two into one resulted in the dominance of the executive over the judiciary and legislature. These new elites became entrenched during the wars and conflicts that affected the region. The enabling factors were of societal origin – clientelist practices, corruption, nepotism and mistrust in politics accompanied by external factors – as well as international pull and push factors (from the EU and Russia) along with a domino effect of democratic backsliding in the region.     

European Banking Union to the Rescue? How Supranational Institutions Influenced Crisis Management in Italy

ABSTRACT

This article examines the management of the recent banking crisis in Italy. In particular, we investigate the changing coalitional dynamics among Italian banks with a view to identifying the conditions under which banks are more likely to share the costs of crisis management. We argue that banks’ preferences are significantly shaped by the institutional context within which they operate. In particular, the establishment of Banking Union in the European Union (EU) significantly weakened the traditional coalitional dynamics among Italian banks by injecting uncertainty about the distributional effects of crisis management policy solutions.