"大湄公河次区域经济走廊建设:合作与发展"国际学术研讨会综述

2008年3月27～28日,"大湄公河次区域经济走廊:合作与发展"国际学术研讨会在昆明举行,会议由云南大学国际关系研究院主办.来自柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、泰国、越南、印度、日本、韩国和中国的70余名专家学者,围绕着如何进一步促进大湄公河次区域(GMS)经济走廊建设和经济社会可持续发展进行了研讨,并就基础设施建设与经济发展、社会与环境、地区合作、国际关系等问题提出了自己的思路与对策.     

竞争与合作:地区视角下的中印关系

本文主要从地区视角考察中国和印度在南亚、东南亚和中亚经济和安全方面的竞争与合作关系。中印作为两个崛起中的亚洲大国,其利益和影响正扩展到亚太各个次区域。由于历史和现实的因素,在可预见的将来,中印在南亚的竞争会多于合作;在东南亚,经济合作要大于竞争,但安全上的竞争要大于合作;在中亚,中印竞争或冲突的可能性较小,而合作的潜力和前景看好。在促进(次)地区的经济和安全方面,中印应承担更多的责任,在不断改善双边关系的同时,正确处理两国在亚太地区的利益和影响,深化合作,健康竞争。     

韩国机制化参与“一带一路”建设有关问题分析

韩国是中国在东北亚最重要的邻国之一,也是美国在亚太地区的主要盟国之一。在韩国对中国主要实行经济外交,对美国主要实行安保外交的情况下,韩国仍认为参与"一带一路"建设既是经济机遇也是安保机遇。"一带一路"倡议强调区域经济一体化及区域联通性的增强,韩国文在寅政府对参与"一带一路"建设持开放和积极的态度,因此,中韩共建"一带一路"既是巩固中韩关系的可靠路径,也是地区局势的稳定锚。具体而言,中韩在政治安全上,以"一带一路"倡议为平台,推动区域合作组织的建立;在经济上,以亚投行为纽带,倡导构建次区域经济合作机制;在文化上,保持多元交流,强化共同体建设。     

东盟东增长区的发展与引资成效

自20世纪90年代初以来,东盟次区域经济合作非常活跃,先后出现了新加坡、马来西亚柔佛和印尼的廖内群岛等组成的"新柔廖增长三角",又被称为"东盟南增长三角";印尼、马来西亚、泰国相邻部分组成的"东盟北增长三角";文莱、印尼、马来西亚和菲律宾相邻部分组成的"东盟东部经济增长区(简称东盟东增长区)"等.这些由东盟各国自愿组成的各种增长三角已成为东盟进行合作的重要形式,促进了东盟各国间经济联系和相互合作,带动了贸易和投资的发展.本文选取东盟区域内最大的、最年轻的东盟东增长区,分析其带动资本流动的效果,探讨其发展成效.     

韩国的新北方政策与俄罗斯远东和西伯利亚开发

韩国新北方政策(即"欧亚倡议")的提出有诸多的因素。欧亚地区在国际政治、经济中地位的不断上升,是一个重要的外部背景。欧亚倡议的最终目标,是为实现朝鲜半岛的统一铺平道路。韩国欧亚倡议的核心合作范围,应该包括俄罗斯远东和西伯利亚、中国的东北三省、独联体成员国以及蒙古。欧亚地区是朝鲜半岛经济持续发展与和平统一的关键。欧亚倡议所选择的最重要伙伴是俄罗斯。欧亚倡议面临的挑战也很多,如韩国与朝鲜之间信任的缺乏、韩国与欧亚国家之间相互投资的不平衡等。     

“丝绸之路经济带”倡议与俄中合作

"丝绸之路经济带"的重点路线途径中亚国家与俄罗斯的国土,因此,俄罗斯不可能对这一倡议持漠视态度。在西方经济制裁俄罗斯的大背景下,俄罗斯对外贸易的优先方向开始从西方转向东方。俄罗斯需要利用好参与"丝绸之路经济带"倡议带来的机遇,提升与所有上合组织成员国之间的合作水平。在与西方国家关系紧张的情况下,俄罗斯需要与亚洲国家,包括中国、中亚国家在内的东部近邻国家之间的关系取得进展。因此,即便从政治的角度来看,俄罗斯都应成为"丝绸之路经济带"倡议的积极参与方。     

“中国与南亚问题学术研讨会”在昆明召开

“中国与南亚问题学术研讨会”2 0 0 3年 9月 2 3日至 2 4日在昆明举行。来自全国南亚学界的 1 2 0多名学者与会 ,提交论文 50余篇。学者们围绕中国与南亚国家的政治经济关系、南亚与云南的次区域合作等议题展开了热烈讨论。主要观点如下 :( 1 )关于中印关系　　印度总理瓦杰帕伊访华 ,双方联合发表了《中印关系原则和全面合作的宣言》,印方在宣言中承认“西藏自治区是中华人民共和国领土的一部分”,这对中印建立互信和进一步合作奠定了基础。有学者提出 ,为使中印关系很好地发展 ,在增加领导人之间的互访的同时 ,加强与印度各党派尤其是反…     

印度对欧政策初析

印度对欧政策是其全球战略的组成部分,是为印度谋求成为全球性大国服务的.为此印度与欧盟建立了形式多样的对话合作机制,其重点则落在经济合作和贸易往来上,从而构成了政治与经济同步前进的态势.但作为南亚的首要大国,印度却无意将这类机制扩散到南盟与欧盟的地区性合作,这反映了印度尚未真正主导南盟的现实,也是印度能否成为世界政治大国所面临的挑战.     

拓展南亚市场促进西部大开发

拓展南亚市场是我国西部对外大开发的重要组成部分.拓展南亚市场的主要思路是:解放思想,增强拓展南亚市场的开放意识;发挥优势,发展西部地区对南亚国家有特色的对外贸易;积极吸收南亚国家的资金;加强对服务贸易领域的拓展力度,促进与南亚国家的经济合作;努力实施"走出去"战略,加大对南亚国家的投资;坚持以人为本,培养和引进国际经贸人才.     

美国的“两圈战略”与美拉整体合作

"两圈战略"是笔者从国家防卫和经济利益两个角度提出的考察美国国家防卫战略和全球战略的研究框架,即美国通过加强"国家防卫安全圈",塑造"经济利益安全圈",达到重构和主导世界新秩序的目的。"国家防卫安全圈"主要由两洋防卫体系和拉美安全倡议区构成,"经济利益安全圈"力求涵盖太平洋、美洲地区和大西洋。美洲地区(南、北美洲)是"两圈战略"的"纵轴",拉美地区是这一纵轴的天然部分,美国利用自由贸易、单边市场开放、区域安全合作等措施已经将3/4的拉美国家拉入"两圈战略"。为了将其他1/4的拉美国家(古巴、厄瓜多尔和六个南方共同市场成员国或准成员国)也拉入"两圈战略",美国利用"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定"、"跨大西洋投资和贸易协定"对南方共同市场营造了战略"包围"态势,与古巴恢复了外交关系,宣布"门罗主义"时代终结,试图以"美洲主义"为口号开展20世纪60年代以来的第三轮美拉整体合作。     

South Africa’s Inclusion in BRICS: Challenges and Prospects for Development in Africa

Abstract

The forming of alliances on the international scene has reflected a provisional arrangement in the world economy. Amongst such alliances was the formation of BRICS by the five world economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa into what is commonly known as BRICS. BRICS is considered a joint initiative, aimed at shifting conventional norms in international economic and political cooperation to create a new trans-continental platform for these actors. Each member country in BRICS has, in one way or another, reflected growth either through its economy foreign policy, and developmental pursuit. However, South Africa is portrayed by some researchers as lagging behind, when compared to the other member countries. Hence, this study sought to analyse the potential mediumand long-term implications of South Africa's inclusion in BRICS. The study also aimed to underscore the benefits and risks associated with South Africa's membership in the alliance in the area of development; specifically poverty reduction, foreign policy, trade, and global partnership. The researchers collected secondary data to analytically critique the inclusion of South Africa in the BRICS alliance, its benefits, and shortcomings for development in South Africa, and in Africa as a whole. We argue that as a global player under BRICS, South Africa has opened a new vista of opportunities, including transnational gateways to Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with the attendant inflow of infrastructural and developmental investments, enriching educational exchanges and technology transfers. The article concludes by stressing the need for South Africa and other African countries to formulate policies that will drive meaningful development in their respective countries. The authors recommend that African leaders should come up with innate policies that are Africa-centred, that would incite development internally.     

India's “Look East” Policy

A combination of economic, strategic, and domestic considerations has led India to pay greater attention to its eastern neighbours since the 1990s. India's steadily growing ties with East and Southeast Asian countries have become an increasingly important element of India's foreign policy. India is working with these countries bilaterally as well as through regional frameworks like the EAS, ASEM, and ASEAN, and sub-regional organizations like BIMSTEC and Mekong-Ganga Cooperation. The main driver remains economic, and India has many ongoing and planned FTAs with the countries of this region. Of late, defence and security ties too have grown. However, India's relations with China remain tense and troubled, with persisting differences over the border, Tibet, and China's patronage of India's South Asian neighbours, particularly Pakistan. Asia's major players will have to overcome internal rivalries and consciously evolve a cooperative paradigm for Asian security and cooperation to enable Asia to play a leading global role.     

An Enigma that is South Asia: India versus the Region

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is now 28 years old, yet its success is nominal. That more important bilateral issues are discussed on the sidelines of SAARC Summits proves the point. Intra-regional trade is still miniscule compared to the region's overall share in the world trade. The biggest defaulter is India, the most prominent member of the group. The purpose of this paper is first to raise the question whether South Asia qualifies to be called a region, and second to argue that, given the problems it faces with most of its neighbours, India is forced to conclude that SAARC matters the least for it. For economic and strategic reasons, India's interests lie in global networking and in a balanced relationship with China. Since Chinese military, diplomatic, and economic presence in South Asia poaches into India's perceived sphere of influence, India's interest in SAARC is limited to that context for otherwise it neither provides large markets for India nor does it contribute to India's strategic policy. Inversely, such a situation justifies India's neighbours playing the China card to bargain with India though that card its losing its value. To buttress our arguments we have drawn from the region's historical experiences as well as from recent developments in international and South Asian politics, including domestic politics.     

美国与巴基斯坦关系的改善及其制约因素

冷战后,巴基斯坦在美国外交中的战略地位明显下降,特朗普上台后更是重印轻巴,推出了高度重视印度的南亚战略和印太战略,对巴基斯坦则实行极限施压政策以逼其加大反恐力度。美国的政策变化引起了巴基斯坦政府和民众的不满与抵制,两国间出现激烈的外交纷争,美巴关系陷入僵局。然而,巴基斯坦在美国的阿富汗战争和外交战略中处于不可忽视的地位,并且巴基斯坦是具有一定的对美反制能力的地区强国,特朗普政府在更为重要的阿富汗和谈问题上需要得到巴基斯坦的帮助。在权衡利弊后,特朗普政府调整对巴基斯坦政策,从以压促变调整为拉拢利用,美巴关系随之从高度紧张走向逐渐缓和。然而,美巴在短期利益和长远战略上都存在难以弥合的矛盾和分歧,双边关系发展缺乏坚实的合作基础和长远计划,两国在主要的共同利益——阿富汗政治和解方面存在目标和利益差异。此外,美印关系不断提升,使美巴双边关系的进一步发展困难重重。美国不愿放弃在巴基斯坦及邻近地区的战略利益,短期内会维持美巴合作,但从长远看,众多挑战和制约因素使两国关系存在较大的不确定性。美巴关系的走向不仅影响到南亚局势,还会冲击到我国的周边安全、中巴关系的发展以及"一带一路"倡议的推进,应当密切关注。     

欧盟战略自主与欧版“印太战略”

为提高国际社会影响力,实现“新安全战略”,应对“美国优先”、英国“脱欧”等危机和挑战,欧盟强化战略自主并培育安全力量建设。随着印太地区地缘战略重要性的增强,欧盟及其成员国不断加强与印太的联系,力求成为该地区新的战略参与者。欧版“印太战略”,以日欧贸易协定为蓝本,优先发展对日关系,联合介入印太,通过与印太国家签订双边或多边自由贸易协定,探索在这一地区建立多边自由贸易体系;强调经济与安全并重发展;法英在欧盟介入印太过程中充当先遣队。它以维护自由与开放、繁荣和稳定的印太秩序为切入点,使欧盟成为这一地区解决传统与非传统安全问题的利益攸关方,谋求与中美在印太地区实现战略平衡。     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

冷战后印度与东盟关系:调整、发展与趋势

20世纪90年代,适应大国崛起战略的需要,印度的"东向政策"出台。印度的"东向政策"推动了冷战后印度与东盟关系的调整与发展。冷战后的印度与东盟关系的发展呈现"双轮驱动"的态势,一方面印度发展与东盟国家的双边关系,另一方面,依托东盟相关机制,印度发展同东盟的多边关系。未来10-15年,印度与东盟关系的发展将是经贸与安全"齐头并进"的趋势。     

论印度在东南亚的软实力

印度软实力源自印度悠久的历史和灿烂的文化。印度在东南亚的软实力主要表现为印度对东南亚国家的双边和多边外交、印度对东南亚国家开展的广泛的经济社会文化合作,以及形式多样、丰富多彩的印度文化产品等。与其他西方国家相比,印度在东南亚展示其软实力的手段与方式更加多元化,也更加容易为东南亚国家所接受。     

Africa–India nuclear cooperation: Pragmatism,principle, post-colonialism and the Pelindaba Treaty

The United States–India nuclear agreement, announced in 2005, was a first step in the process to normalise India's international nuclear relations despite the fact that India is not a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Africa is largely seen as a uranium supplier rather than nuclear power producer in the world nuclear order. The position that African states take towards Africa–India nuclear cooperation, uranium supply to India in particular, is informed by two seemingly contrasting factors, namely economic and political pragmatism on the one hand, and non-proliferation imperatives and norms on the other. The African Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty, also referred to as the Pelindaba Treaty, prohibits uranium and nuclear-related exports to states without comprehensive safeguards of their nuclear facilities, but the case of India is still open for interpretation. Africa and India's shared post-colonial consciousness, manifesting in their historical ties, membership of the Non-Aligned Movement and South–South cooperation, is often regarded as another factor facilitating Africa–India nuclear relations. A more critical view points to the different notions of post-coloniality in Africa and India, resulting in different approaches to nuclear non-proliferation that constrain their nuclear relations.     

MAPS OF TIME,CLOCKS OF SPACE

When Asia was conceptualized as Europe's “other,” it was also cast as a temporally delimited concept: once capitalist modernity—assumed to operate evenly across the globe by conservatives, liberals, and the left—spread to eastern Eurasia, the differences between two unequal halves of the continent were expected to evaporate. The persistence of differences long after “Asia” was incorporated into the capitalist world-economy has led to a cartographic definition of the continent. Such definitions do not allow for historical processes that reshape relations between peoples, forging new links and severing old ones. This article traces the changing imaginaries of Asia historically. Since there are no indigenous conceptions of the continent, the author argues that the changing imaginaries of Asia are linked to wider geopolitical processes. When eastern Eurasia was subordinated to the drives of the capitalist world-economy, existing linkages were severed and territories were linked to, or through, colonial metropoles. After a brief period of autarkic development after decolonization, states along the Pacific coasts were increasingly integrated through production and procurement networks leading to a new imaginary of Asia. Since the end of the cold war and the emergence of independent states with large hydrocarbon resources in Central Asia, countries that were once excluded from cold war imaginaries of Asia—as well as India—are being integrated through newer imaginaries that reflect the greater prominence of China and India today as well as the rise of Islamic militancy and new ethnic conflicts.