The Potential of China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement

This article explores the economic calculations behind the recent initiatives for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the Governments of China, Japan and South Korea (CJK) and clarifies the implications for future regional economic integration. First, the proposed trilateral FTA signifies an advancement of China-centered regional economic integration. Regional economic integration led by China may also increase its political clout at the global stage. Second, the Governments of South Korea and Japan seek greater involvement in China's huge domestic market, but the former is concerned that a trilateral FTA will worsen its trade deficit with Japan, and the latter is afraid of losing its market shares in China and America to its Korean rival. Japan, therefore, seeks membership of both the CJK FTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Third, China and the US' active involvement in regional economic integration will push the three countries to go forward towards greater economic cooperation. However, it will take longer for China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and America-led TPP to bear fruit because of the large number of countries involved. Therefore, the conclusion of CJK FTA will be an important boost for the further progress of both RCEP and TPP. It will also be an important stabiliser for the trilateral political relations in the future.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

China's Continuous Dam-building on the Mekong River

This article analyses China's hydro-politics along the Mekong River. It seeks to explain why China's unilateral dam-building projects on the upper reaches of the river have not been met with sustained criticism on the part of the downstream riparian countries, for which upstream dams are likely to have severe negative consequences. It is held that China has embarked on a strategy of implicit and broadly conceived actor-reversed issue linkage as a means to nip any loud disapproval of its dams in the bud. By downplaying its dam-building projects and instead promoting common development goals with the Mekong riparian countries through highly increased political and economic engagement, Beijing has successfully defused any potential counter-measures against its dams, at least for the time being. The sustainability of this strategy and its transferability to others of China's trans-boundary rivers must be questioned.     

日本实施FTA战略的进展和挑战

20世纪90年代末,日本对外贸易政策发生了重大转变。日本政府在1999年发表的《通商白皮书》中首次提出了要在坚持多边主义立场的同时,与其他国家或地区签定自由贸易协定(FTA)或与亚洲大多数国家签定经济伙伴协定(EPA)。日本实施FTA战略在经济上的主要原因是日本看到了美国欧盟都在积极开展区域合作,感到自己有被边缘化的危险,政治上的原因是要抵消中国的影响。目前日本正在实施与新加坡和墨西哥的FTA,同时又正在与马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、印度尼西亚和韩国进行FTA谈判,并考虑与澳大利亚、越南、瑞士和海湾合作委员会六国进行FTA谈判。日本实施FTA战略对国内农业政策和人员流动政策提出了挑战,在国际上对美国尤其是中国提出了挑战。本文通过对日本实施 FTA战略进展作出较为全面的概述,使我们更加感到中国实施FTA战略的必要性和急迫性。     

U.S.-VIETNAM RELATIONS IN THE TRUMP ERA

This paper seeks to examine U.S.-Vietnam relations under the Trump administration. It will concentrate on the political, economic and security dimensions of the relationship. It will demonstrate that the Trump administration's policy towards Vietnam has many elements of Obama's policy towards Vietnam. Though President Trump has focused on the trade deficit with Vietnam, the Trump administration has worked closely with the Vietnamese government to intensify the partnership with Vietnam. It should be noted that in the context of China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, Hanoi and Washington see that it is in their mutual interests to advance their security cooperation. The last two years have witnessed the increasing partnership between Vietnam and the United States.     

Chinese eyes on Africa: Authoritarian flexibility versus democratic governance

This article seeks to shed more light on the consequences of China's aid to and trade with African states. It attempts to answer two questions: First, does China's ‘no-strings-attached’ policy in Africa constitute a challenge to Western aid paradigms? Second, is there as an emerging state-sponsored Chinese model of ‘effective governance’, guided by a south-south vision of mutuality, equality and reciprocity at work? It is argued that China's Africa watchers are cautious, not wanting to project any false hopes into bilateral relationships with African countries. In the light of China's reform experience, these analysts propose that indigenous contexts should determine what developmental model to choose. China is unwilling to force its experiences of ‘a market economy with Chinese characteristics’ upon other nations. The article concludes by arguing that, although not unproblematic, there is reason to be positive about China's higher profile in Africa.     

Building bridges? South African foreign policy and trilateral development cooperation

As questions concerning international development climb the international agenda, so countries find themselves drawn into a burgeoning number of negotiations on issues ranging from the future shape and direction of the post-2015 development agenda to ‘aid effectiveness’ and international development cooperation. Moving from the position of a ‘beneficiary’ state in the traditional donor–recipient aid hierarchy, South Africa is looking to define its own niche within the wider development diplomacy context as a development partner. This paper provides an assessment of South Africa's evolving approach towards international development cooperation, with a particular focus on trilateral development cooperation, and what this means for Pretoria's foreign policy in bridging the divide between developed and developing country positions within the international development regime.     

The rise of China: Threats,uncertainties, and opportunities

The attraction of China's enormous market is lending strength to its position in international negotiations, and China's high rate of economic development is serving to reinforce the legitimacy of its political system. But China's increasing defense expenditures, made possible by such economic growth, are heightening tension among neighboring countries who perceive China as a threat. Kiichi Saeki examines these positive and negative implications of China's rapid economic growth. Saeki is concurrently executive advisor to IIPS and vice president of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain. He was formerly the president and chairman of Nomura Research Institute and president of the Defense College.     

East Asian Economic Growth and its Implications for Regional Security

Rapid economic growth in East Asia is changing the nature of international relations in the region. In the economic sphere, mercantilist policies of promoting exports and limiting imports contributed to economic tensions between rapidly growing economies in the region and the region's major trading partner, the United States. These tensions over bilateral trade issues began between Japan and United States, moved on next to South Korea and Taiwan, and have now moved from there to China. In the security field, economic growth in China is leading to a major shift in the balance of power in the region. China's steadily increasing GDP is being accompanied by a comparable rise in its military expenditures despite the fact that China faces no obvious external threats at the present time. China's long term desire to be able to defend against any outside power probably means that this increase in defense expenditures will continue for the next decade or two. North Korea continues to be a threat to stability in the region but only because of its capacity to do enormous damage in one last suicidal attack. The one area where China's rising military expenditures could lead to major confrontation on terms very different from those that would occur today is Taiwan.     

“Making the Crooked Straight”: China's Grand Strategy of “Peaceful Rise” and its Central Asian Dimension

Abstract

This article argues that China's foreign policy since 1991 has been guided by the evolution of a grand strategy of “peaceful rise” that seeks to ensure China's smooth transition to great power status. Moreover, it suggests that a strategic preoccupation with Central Asia has become an important expression of this grand strategy. Framing these arguments is a third overarching one that postulates that China's foreign policy in Central Asia is not only intimately related to the strategy of “peaceful rise” but also to a particular, historically and geopolitically informed narrative of China's “Inner Asian” power.     

美国对华战略规锁下的贸易冲突博弈路径选择

特朗普执政后,美国对华战略逐步由“接触”转向“规锁”,中美经贸关系也因此发展到了摩擦频现甚至是冲突对抗的新阶段。美国对华战略规锁本质上是要遏制中国在科技进步和国家实力等方面的崛起,以维护其霸权地位。贸易冲突作为美国对华战略规锁最直接的手段之一,在一定程度上反映了其国内利益集团与党派之间的斗争。特朗普政府为了获得国内政治支持,推出了严重扭曲的对华贸易政策。文章从美国对华战略规锁的视角,运用多重博弈论方法对中美贸易冲突进行了路径选择分析并认为,囚徒困境中“以牙还牙”策略下的博弈双方均实施损人损己的策略,无论采取“以牙还牙”、冷酷触发还是无限拖延,博弈双方的最优策略都是通过贸易谈判实现继续合作;双方只有通过有效谈判,逐步取消加征的贸易壁垒,才能达成协议并获得最大收益。基于博弈结果的情景分析与中美第一阶段经贸协议内容,文章为破解中美贸易冲突困境以及未来防范提供了战略参考和政策启示。     

The East Asian financial meltdown

In view of China's economic growth and rising international status, Latin American and Caribbean countries will accord increasing priority to their relations with the Asian giant. China's permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council is also a factor to reckon with. Today, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Mexico have established strategic partnerships with China. While the vast distance between China and Latin America generates difficulties in transportation and mutual understanding, it also means that both parties have no serious conflicts of strategic and political interests. Their Third World orientations in diplomacy contribute to a 95% concurrence in their votes in the United Nations. While the Chinese leadership seeks to promote multipolarity to curb US unilateralism, it appreciates its limitations in Latin America. In addition, China and the Latin American and Caribbean countries value good relations with the US. In the foreseeable future, China will increase its investment in Latin America and more Sino-Latin American business joint ventures will be formed. These trends may well reduce trade frictions associated with China's economic expansion.     

China-ASEAN Economic Co-operation and the Role of Provinces

This article attempts to study the rationales and strategies of China's involvement in sub-regional economic co-operation projects with the countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), using the Greater Mekong Basin Sub-region and the Pan-Beibu Gulf Area as examples. It analyses China's diplomatic and economic motivations, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of this involvement. It also examines China's involvement at the provincial level and, in particular, the motivations, strategies, strengths and limitations on the part of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in its participation in the Pan-Beibu Gulf Area project. China considers that its involvement facilitates its articulation of its interests, enhancement of its influence and promotion of multipolarity. Further, it would allow China to maintain a relatively low profile while seeking leadership and reducing external pressures. There are also the considerations of reducing China's aid commitments and accelerating the development of China's central and western provinces.     

2011年韩国政治外交述评与展望

2011年韩国的政治外交出现了不少新的变化。＂安哲秀现象＂的出现打破了长期以来保守和进步两派左右韩国政治的格局,韩国社会开始形成超越保守与进步理念的＂第三势力＂。朴槿惠、韩明淑等一批女性政治家活跃于韩国政坛,备受瞩目。韩国在继续强化韩美同盟关系的同时,进一步加强与中国的外交关系。为了克服国际金融危机的影响,韩国大力开展FTA外交,并取得了显著成果。2012年是韩国大选之年,韩国各种政治势力正在积极整合力量,希望在选举中谋求自己的利益最大化。韩国政府将继续调整与大国的关系,开展多边外交,并积极推进与中国和日本的FTA谈判。     

From distrust to mutual interests?: Emerging cooperation in Northeast Asia

In Northeast Asia, historical legacies, a lack of common identity and great power politics impeded political cooperation and economic integration. However, China, Japan and South Korea have exhibited a growing interest in political and economic cooperation since the late 1990s. This article examines how the three Northeast Asian countries have developed political and economic cooperation by using the concept of ‘multilayered intergovernmentalism’. It argues that despite political tensions between China and Japan, regional cooperation among China, Japan and South Korea has been promoted by talks and bargains among the heads of state and government who strengthened incentives for closer cooperation. Moreover, multilayered frameworks formed at the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) level, through the Track II mechanisms, and in issue-specific areas have provided valuable input into advancing regional cooperation initiatives. Whereas the APT framework offered incentives and opportunities to exchange views and information for closer trilateral cooperation, the outcomes of the research at the Track II were incorporated into the leaders' cooperative initiatives. The existence of issue-specific frameworks stirred talks and negotiations at the summit level.     

South Africa's financial and economic prospects for the next five years

South African dominance of trade in Africa as well as its position as a regional hegemon was entrenched by the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) with the European Union in 1999. South Africa's full-blown integration into the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) formation since 2011 has brought new dynamics, however, as South Africa now has a marked BRICS orientation. Although the European Union (EU) as a bloc is still South Africa's largest trading partner, China has become South Africa's largest single-country trading partner. The question arises as to whether this new found loyalty makes sense in terms of South Africa's regional position and its trade prospects. Against the background of more intra-industry trade with the EU and the new and growing inter-industry trade with the other BRICS economies, South Africa's trade share of African trade has been in relative decline. This study uses an international political economy framework to analyse South African trade hegemony based on the TDCA and the possible effects of a shift towards BRICS. The conclusion is that, although the shift towards BRICS can politically be justified, economically it should not be at the expense of the benefits of the more advantageous relationship with the EU.     

South Korea and China's Security Objectives in East Asia

This article explores how South Korea relates to China's national security objectives in East Asia. Specifically, it argues that for China, the strategic value of South Korea lies in coping with the strong position of the US in East Asia. Moreover, South Korea's stance on the North Korean nuclear issue is closer to China's, compared with that of the US.     

A strategic view of South African trade policy in relation to the future global trading environment

This paper puts forward a strategic view of what South African trade policy should be doing in relation to the future global trading environment. The future is uncertain, but if the past is prologue, South African trade policy needs to be positioned for a continuation of the commodity cycle, and to exploit markets in emerging economies, including Africa, more fully. Simultaneously, it needs policies to spur labour-intensive services and manufacturing exports, both because these will be needed if commodity markets are less robust and because of their employment-creating potential. South Africa's current strategy, however, is inflexible, heavily focused on domestic concerns and is in danger of placing South African exporters at a disadvantage in accessing the growing emerging economies. It also gives rise to an inherent tension between the interests of South Africa and the African region in trade negotiations. Having as the central tenet of trade policy a commitment to deal with tariffs on a case-by-case basis will not serve South Africa well in the global economy that is likely to emerge over the next 15 years. A simpler tariff structure would facilitate the conclusion of free trade agreements and actually make industrial policy more effective.     

US Trade Deficits and Sino-US Relations

American politicians and policy makers have blamed China's exchange rate for the large US trade deficits. This paper explains why the USA treats its trade deficits with China as a security issue that have become a source of friction in Sino-US relations. The essay argues that this friction is a useful deflection from the politically difficult policy action needed to remedy the US economy and cannot easily be removed by the Chinese side alone. The structure of global trade and the reality of China's political economy, which forces Chinese leaders to develop policies for a “harmonious society” in the face of growing inequality also makes it difficult for China to respond positively to US pressure on the exchange rate.     

The political economy of China's economic reform

In China and Socialism: Market Reforms and Class Struggle, Martin Hart-Landsberg and Paul Burkett present a withering critique of China's market reforms and development strategy. To assess their critique, I believe it is essential to provide a somewhat fuller discussion of the context within which China's reform strategy emerged than appears in the work of Hart-Landsberg and Burkett. My discussion of this context appears after a brief discussion of their main points, and is followed in turn by a more detailed evaluation of the specific assertions they make. Although I am sympathetic to the spirit of their critique, I believe that in the last analysis they are unable to offer any genuine alternative to the development strategy China has pursued and that their analysis of the consequences of that strategy is in many respects deeply flawed.