A User's Guide to State Revenue Forecasting

One of the most difficult tasks in preparing a state budget is forecasting available revenues. An overly optimistic forecast may subsequently require unpopular budget cuts, tax increases, or both. A pessimistic forecast may trigger a political controversy over the size of the budget surplus, or may encourage additional spending that cannot be sustained in the future. Forecasters have always informally shared their experience with each other. Only in recent years, however have scholars begun to document those experiences.
A forecast user is an elected official, program manager, reporter or private citizen involved in the budget process who uses a forecast prepared by someone else as a basis for making or influencing policy decisions about state taxes and spending levels. __ While the objectives of these forecast users may vary depending on their role in the budget process, they all share one need in common: a sound forecast which provides them with the information they need to participate in the budget process. The first part of this article briefly reviews the status of revenue forecasting in the states. The second part reviews five specific forecasting issues. The third section, discusses limits of revenue forecasting. The concluding section is a summary and checklist of good revenue forecasting practices.     

Multi-Year Forecasting and Municipal Budgeting

The "black hole" of budget theory still is, after 50 years, budget preparation—much effort goes in but little seems to come out. This article examines municipal forecasting as a means of reforming this first stage of the budgetary process. Drawing on evidence from a cross-sectional study, we find that forecasting is likely to be within the cognitive limits of most municipal budget directors Moreover, budgetary forecasting can be structured to reflect previous and current political concerns.     

省会城市预算过程中党政首长的作用与影响——基于三个省会城市的研究

以我国三个省会城市为例来试图回答这样一个问题:在省会城市预算过程中,党政首长究竟发挥着怎样的作用,他们是如何影响着预算过程和预算改革的?研究发现,这三个省会城市预算改革后,预算权力结构并未从根本上改变.其核心仍然是市委书记和市长,他们仍然是地方预算过程中实际的财政资源申请的审批者或最终资源配置者.这主要体现在,预算改革后,市委领导下的"行政预算"体制的继续,市政府领导高层预算分配权力的相对集中,和市长对部门关系以及部门利益的决定性影响.研究还指出,要准确地表达地方党政首长在预算过程中的权力,需要将其放在一种"关系"的维度来具体化.此外,对预算环境的讨论也是必要的,尤其是政治环境,对于党政首长而言,预算过程中的不确定性通常都是和政治环境相联系的.     

Incrementalism in Appropriations: Small Aggregation,Big Changes

U.S. federal budget dynamics, as a major attribute of the legislative and bureaucratic decision‐making processes, increasingly calls into question the scholarly focus on incrementalism. What constitutes a “small” change is largely unspecified in previous research that has also been unable to assess incrementalism across multiple levels of aggregation. Using a unique budgetary database, this article analyzes whether budgetary changes are in fact “small” at different levels of aggregation. Surprisingly, a low proportion of changes are small by any logical standard. During most years, more than one‐fifth of budgetary changes are greater than 50 percent, and nearly half are more than 10 percent. The level of aggregation is also important for assessing whether political variables influence incrementalism. A salient finding: change in party control reflects greater influence within micro‐level budget decisions, while divided government manifests more impact on aggregate‐level budget decisions.     

Analyzing How Local Governments Establish Service Priorities

Resource limitations and increasing citizen expectations are causing decisionmakers to reexamine existing approaches to establishing priorities in the funding of governmental services. Using local governments as a contextual example, this article investigates the decision making processes used by Texas cities The research seeks to understand the role different budgetary frameworks, i.e., incremental, performance and community values, play in resource allocation. Factors such as the budget sequence, the participants and the reference sources are considered to better understand local budget deliberations. This research indicates that a mixed or hybrid framework (any combination of the incremental, performance and community values approaches) dominates decision making in Texas cities. That is, most cities attempt to incorporate the politicalness of incrementalism, the results orientation of the performance framework, and the utility maximization desired under the community values framework. Results from this research indicate that Texas cities are moving away from a single framework orientation as a rule and are incorporating more rational and participative aspects into their budget process. This refutes common wisdom on this topic and suggests a more complicated approach to decision making that emphasizes the injection of more objective performance-related data, as well as the subjective perceptions of non-traditionally dominant participant groups.     

Models of Performance-Measurement Use in Local Governments: Understanding Budgeting, Communication, and Lasting Effects

While attention has been paid to a few cities and counties exhibiting effective performance measurement systems, most U.S. local governments have been active in the development and use of performance measurement for several decades. This research examines the effects of performance-measurement information on budgetary decision making, communication, and other operations of U.S. local governments. Data are drawn from a national survey of city and county administrators and budgeters that included nearly 300 governments. Findings indicate the use of performance measurement by local departments is pervasive, although survey respondents are less enthusiastic about measurement effectiveness. Study results show subtle distinctions between city and county officials in their use of performance measurement for budgetary purposes and processes. Research findings indicate the consistent, active integration of measures throughout the budget process is important in determining real budget and communication effects in local governments.     

State Revenue Forecasts and Political Acceptance: The Value of Consensus Forecasting in the Budget Process

Concerns about political biases in state revenue forecasts, as well as insufficient evidence that complex forecasts outperform naive algorithms, have resulted in a nearly universal call for depoliticization of forecasting. This article discusses revenue forecasting in the broader context of the political budget process and highlights the importance of a forecast that is politically accepted—forecast accuracy is irrelevant if the budget process does not respect the forecast as a resource constraint. The authors provide a case illustration in Indiana by showing how the politicized process contributed to forecast acceptance in the state budget over several decades. They also present a counterfactual history of forecast errors that would have been produced by naive algorithms. In addition to showing that the Indiana process would have outperformed the naive approaches, the authors demonstrate that the path of naive forecast errors during recessions would be easily ignored by political actors.     

Public Management Decision Making: Effects of Decision Content

One obvious aspect of public management decisions and decision making has largely escaped attention—decision content. We examine the effects of decision content by asking the following questions for budget cutback and information technology decisions: How does content affect the time required for decision making? How does content affect who participates? How does content affect the decision criteria employed? How does content affect the information quality used in the decision-making process and red tape? The results suggest that information technology and budget cutback decisions differ in important ways. For information technology decisions, cost-effectiveness is not a significant criterion, average decision time is much longer, and decisions are generally viewed as permanent and stable. For cutback decisions, cost-effectiveness is a significant criterion, decisions are made much more quickly, and they are viewed as unstable and changeable. Surprisingly, decision content does not appear to affect the number of participants.     

Games presidents do and do not play: Presidential circumvention of the executive branch budget process

The federal executive budgetary process has been severely criticized in recent years for its apparent inability to curb budgetary growth and limit deficits. Much of this criticism ignores the essentially political, rather than administrative, causes of these trends. Budgetary growth and deficit spending may be viewed in part as the results of presidential circumvention of budgetary and fiscal policy processes. Circumvention consists of the movement of spending decisions out of the annual review and evaluation of current-year budgetary formulation, thus evading the constraints frequently imposed by budgetary and fiscal policies. The precise mechanisms of presidential circumvention have changed over time. However, the long-term impact of circumvention has been a reduction in the controllability and comprehensiveness of the annual federal budget, as well as higher rates of budgetary growth.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the meetings of the American Political Science Association, September 1–4, 1983. We would like to thank George Downs, William Lammers, Harold Seidman, and James Sundquist for useful comments and discussion.     

Statebuilding and the Politics of Budgeting in Afghanistan

Anchored in a framework drawn from the public finances literature and executive–legislative studies, the purpose of this article is to assess the impacts of Afghan budgetary institutions on the statebuilding project. Two main questions drive the analysis: what is the nature of the relationship between central government and subnational units concerning the allocation and distribution of resources, and – regarding budget preparation – what is the role played by the legislature? It is argued that beyond Afghanistan’s dependency on foreign aid to fund ordinary expenditures and development projects, the presence of a set of budgetary rules which not only centralizes the preparation and execution of budget decisions at the expense of provinces but also marginalizes the legislative involvement in the decision-making process are two important features that prevent further development in state capacity and the representative government.     

The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting

This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.     

Budgetary Decision Making by Executive and Legislative Budget Analysts: The Impact of Political Cues and Analytical Information

We explore the extent to which attributes of individual analysts and institutional factors lead to budgetary decisions based on political cues and/or analytical information among executive and legislative budget analysts. We surveyed executive and legislative budget analysts in 13 western states to ascertain the factors that influence their budgetary decisions. The findings build on evidence from previous studies that confirms the complexity of factors affecting budget analysts' decisions, and they provide empirical support to analysts' use of a combination of information labeled "budget rationality" by Thurmaier and Willoughby. Also, we provide more conclusive evidence that both executive and legislative analysts follow similar decision-making patterns.     

Surplus Expenditures: A Case Study of Colorado

In this study the concept of surplus expenditures is introduced, and a theory of surplus expenditures is explored. The study examines the disposition of surplus revenues that emerged from the imposition of a binding tax and spending limit in Colorado. The study concludes that the accumulation of surplus revenue requires a major overhaul of budgetary reporting and decision making to reflect the impact of binding tax and spending limits on the budgetary process. The reporting recommendations are designed to make the budget more transparent and provide both taxpayers and legislators the information they need to make more rational decisions. The policy recommendations explore options for a more efficient and equitable disposition of surplus revenue.     

Management Strategies and Budgetary Politics

The study of public sector budgeting, particularly at the state level, has been dominated by incremental models of decision making. As a result, the budget has not always been viewed as an effective management tool for governors and other senior state officials. However, there are several critical issues which state leaders repeatedly face and for which the budget is the principal instrument for implementing decisions. This article identifies four key issues for the strategic management of state government and relates alternative approaches to each issue to the nature of budgetary politics. The first section raises the issues in the form of four questions. The next sections present alternative answers and discuss their political implications. Where appropriate, examples from the state of New York are included.     

Ideas, Inheritances, and the Dynamics of Budgetary Change

Long the lifeblood of public administration, budgeting in the United States acquired a new importance during the 1980s and 1990s because of the fiscalization of the policy debate. But how much has American national budgeting really changed? This article examines the evolution of federal budgeting over the past half-century, exploring such developments as the massive growth of entitlements, congressional budget reform, and the protracted battle over the budget deficit. It finds that year-to-year changes in budget results have been relatively small even while budgetary rules and procedures have experienced sweeping change. At the same time, the composition of federal spending has undergone a quiet revolution. The traditional concept of budgetary incrementalism offers an incomplete explanation for these dynamics. To make sense of them, the article focuses on two key factors: the impact of policy inheritances, and the role of actors' causal and normative beliefs. These factors shape the ideational and material context within which boundedly rational actors negotiate decisions. The tension between changes in ideas and entrenched budgetary commitments has often served to stimulate institutional reform.     

Managerial Necessity and the Art of Creating Surpluses: The Budget-Execution Process in West Virginia Cities

Budget execution traditionally has been defined as a straightforward process of implementing the budget as approved. Research into the process has been limited, particularly with regard to local government budgets. This article examines the rebudgeting process using a case study of 15 West Virginia cities. Rebudgeting displayed a consistent pattern for the various budget categories—personnel, contracts, commodities, capital, and contributions—closely resembling the "increase-then-decrease" pattern seen in the overall budget. Empirical data on budgetary adjustments and structured interviews with city finance officials helped to describe budget changes and explain probable causes and effects of behavior during budget execution for these smaller cities. Budget changes were found to be the result of managerial necessity and the exercise of discretion to generate and distribute surpluses.     

Public Finance Issues and Problems in Switzerland

Switzerland is regarded as a bastion of financial conservatism, yet the Swiss federal government presently faces annual budget deficits of the highest magnitude in recent history. This article provides an overview of measures instituted in Switzerland to control the growth of the public sector and public spending. Recent efforts to raise new tax revenues are also discussed. To place the fiscal dilemma in perspective, an introduction to the structure of Swiss national government and the budgetary process is included. In analysis of Swiss budgetary politics, particular emphasis is given to the influence of the public referendum process on the political dynamics of resource decision making. The authors also analyze the area of the Swiss budget that is growing most rapidly—mandated entitlements—especially payments for unemployment compensation. A prolonged economic recession in Europe has created high unemployment and, consequently, high demand for unemployment compensation and other social "safety net" programs and spending. The most prominent feature of the Swiss political system is that it is headed by a stable coalition government in which leadership does not alternate between different political parties. This system confronts social and policy problems in a slow and deliberate manner due to the necessity for consultation and compromise in a multi-party coalitional government. The advantage of this system is stability and prudence, the disadvantage is perhaps short-term unresponsiveness to budgetary and policy dilemmas of the type now faced in Switzerland. Parallels are drawn between the Swiss budgetary problem and that faced by the U.S. executive and Congress.     

Public Meetings and the Democratic Process

Public meetings are frequently attacked as useless democratic rituals that lack deliberative qualities and fail to give citizens a voice in the policy process. Do public meetings have a role to play in fostering citizen participation in policy making? While many of the criticisms leveled against public meetings have merit, I argue that they do. In this article, I explore the functions that city council and school board meetings serve. While they may not be very good at accomplishing their primary goal of giving citizens the opportunity to directly influence decisions made by governing bodies, they can be used to achieve other ends, such as sending information to officials and setting the agenda. As a complement to deliberative political structures, public meetings have a role to play by offering a venue in which citizens can achieve their political goals, thereby enhancing governmental accountability and responsiveness.     

Searching for a Role for Citizens in the Budget Process

Citizen participation in the local budget process is not prevalent, despite encouragement from scholars and professional organizations. This case study of two Kansas cities that have used a variety of input mechanisms in the budget process analyzes the effectiveness of citizen budget participation. Limited effectiveness was found, which may largely be due to the timing of the input, unstated or unclear goals, implementation difficulties, and political and environmental constraints. Citizen input appears to have had little effect on budget decisions, and neither city has institutionalized participation in the process. However, the input mechanisms serve other purposes, such as education and support for specific proposals. Describing the benefits as well as the difficulty of involving citizens in a meaningful way is beneficial to other governments as they wrestle with the issue of defining the citizens' role in the budget process.