第八期“理论视野·读书会”在中央党校举行

2014年12月29日,由中国马克思主义研究基金会和《理论视野》杂志社共同举办的第八期"理论视野·读书会"在中央党校育园楼一教室举行。本期读书会邀请中国社会科学院学部委员、国际研究学部主任、地区安全研究中心主任张蕴岭教授作"中国周边关系与地区秩序构建"的专题讲座。中央党校进修部、培训部部分学员,研究生院部分研究生,中国马克思主义研究基金会工作人员约60余人参加了读书会。张蕴岭教授是我国著名国际问题专家,学术专长为世界经济和东亚地区国际关系研究。主要著作有《未来10-15年中国在亚太地区面临的国际环境》、《东亚合作:寻求整合的方法》、《东亚地区主义与中国》、《中国对外关系回顾与展     

国内学术界关于东亚安全问题的研究略述

在21世纪世界多极化和经济全球化的浪潮中,东亚国家扮演着极为重要的角色。东亚地区的和平与稳定对世界和平和经济繁荣也具有重大意义。但是自冷战结束后,东亚安全形势的恶化和安全困境的出现严重干扰了世界和平的进程。为了探究东亚安全形势变化的原因并建立东亚地区的安全机制,一些中国学者把视线转向了对东亚安全形势的研究。20年来,国内学者通过各种领域发表了300多篇著述,本文将以些成果为依据,对国内关于东亚安全问题的研究进行回顾和梳理。     

东亚安全合作的困境——论美国亚太同盟体系与东亚地区主义的并存

虽然形成于冷战时期,但美国的亚太同盟体系仍是现今东亚地区安全结构的主导。与此同时,东亚地区多边安全合作也取得了重要进展,相继出现了"东盟"、"东盟地区论坛"、"10+1"、"10+3"等合作形式。在东亚安全合作中,同时并存着两种进程,即以双边主义为特征的美国亚太同盟体系和以多边主义为特征的东亚地区主义。     

中国外交需立足周边

冷战后的１０年里，国际形势发 生了很大的变化，今后中国 外交政策的基本出发点应该是什么呢？笔者认为中国外交应立足于周边地区（东亚、南亚和中亚），特别是东亚地区。其理由是： 中国的国际利益主要集中于其周边地区。经济上，中国外贸进出口总额的５６％集中于周边地区，其中５３．６％是在东亚地区，而其他的４４％分散于北美、南美、欧洲、非洲、大洋洲和中东六个地区；军事上，周边地区的安全问题直接关系到我国的安全，目前面临的最主要战争危险是在东亚地区，而世界其他地区的安全状况对我国的影响都还是间接的，因此争取较好的…     

论现阶段东亚地区实行地方分权的必要性与可行性

在各种国际机构、地区组织和地方政府正在逐步取代国家成为国际社会的基本行为主体和构成单位的大趋势下,现阶段东亚地区也正面临从中央集权向地方分权的重大调整。或许更适合冷战时期世界经济受政治势力影响甚至分割的情景的东亚中央政府主导经济的模式已经日趋僵化;东亚许多国家和地区的经济所获得的发展,降低了依靠中央政府调动一切资源以发展经济的必要性;民间中小企业的成长和外国跨国公司的进入,强化了地方政府的地位。实行地方分权,在东亚有利于国内和地区内的市场经济的发展,有利于矫正在东亚现代化模式中存在的诸如地区经济差别增大等偏差,有利于缩小社会与民众对政府的需求与政府满足这些需求的能力之间不断增长的差距。     

世界经济重心东移

近十多年来,西方凋蔽、苏东倒退、非洲与拉美也不景气,唯独东亚地区一枝独秀、勃勃生机,主要表现为: ——经济稳定持续增长。最近世界银行一份报告将日本、中国、“四小”及东盟中的马、泰、印(尼)等称之为“经济发展较快的亚洲国家和地区”,并指出这些国家和地区经济发展速度较东亚     

亚太地区经济合作的特点和前景

继亚太经济合作组织第5次部长级会议于11月17日至19日在美国西雅图举行之后,紧接着于11月19日至20日又在同一城市举行亚太经济合作组织领导人非正式会议。与会领导人聚首一堂共商本地区经济合作大计,说明与会国家和地区重视亚太经济合作。亚太经济合作越来越引人关注的根本原因是该地区特别是东亚经济持续高速发展。统计数字显示,在过去20年里,东亚地区经济年均增长8%,大大高于发展中国家整体4.3%和发达国家3%的增长水平。亚太地区自然资源丰富、拥有资金和技术优势、投资领域广阔、市场潜力巨大,因此,亚太地区特别是东亚地区经济将保持强劲增     

美国战略重心东移与中美关系

美国战略重心东移是后冷战时期美国对外战略结构性的重大调整,它无疑为亚太地区的安全稳定带来新的变数及不确定性,不仅导致东亚政治格局的变革,而且对中美关系格局和发展趋向都将产生深刻影响,并成为21世纪国际关系变革调整的前沿地带。这一切关系到中国的地缘政治战略和周边地缘政治稳定及亚太大国政治格局的重塑问题。美国战略东移对中美大国关系带来的影响是:中美双方陷入战略猜疑和相互认知的困境;双层权力体系架构是东亚地区所特有的政治经济现象;东亚合作的重点和主渠道地位及作用将受到挑战。中美大国关系格局的战略选择需以它们特殊方式重建再平衡:把大国地缘政治上存在的竞争因素转化为合作协调的动力,扩大和深化中美各方利益的汇合点;建立最基本的"战略互信"来保障中美关系的稳定发展;建设中美大国间的关系协调机制。     

东亚经济充满活力

东亚地区是全球经济增长最快的地区。在世纪交接之时,东亚经济的活力已引起世界的广泛注目。西太平洋初升的“新月”在浩瀚的太平洋西岸,自北而南分布着日本、韩国、中国、台湾省、香港、泰国、新加坡、马来西亚、     

南海问题究竟“难”在哪里

南海问题早就有，但为什么这两年如此多事？这就要考察一下这两年东亚地区的变化。我这里讲的东亚是广义东亚，主要包括东北亚、东南亚、印度、巴基斯坦等特定区域，还包括西太平洋。从广义东亚看南海问题，     

Security architecture in Asia: the interplay of regional and global levels

I argue that there is a distinct and longstanding regional structure in East Asia that is of at least equal importance to the global level in shaping the region's security dynamics. Without considering this regional level neither ‘unipolar’ nor ‘multipolar’ designations can explain East Asian international security. To make this case, I deploy regional security complex theory both to characterize and explain developments in East Asia since the end of the Cold War. The shift from bipolarity to unipolarity is well understood in thinking about how the ending of the Cold War impacted on East Asia. Less written about in Western security literature are the parallel developments at the regional level. Prominent among these are the relative empowerment of China in relation to its neighbours, and the effect of this, as well as of the growth of regional institutions, and the attachment of security significance to East Asian economic developments, in merging the security dynamics of Northeast and Southeast Asia. How China relates to its East Asian region, and how the US and China relate to each other, are deeply intertwined issues which centrally affect not only the future of East Asian, but also global, security. With the notable exception of some crisis between China and Taiwan, this whole pattern looks mainly dependent on internal developments within China and the US. Also significant is whether the basic dynamic of interstate relations in East Asia is more defined by the Westphalian principle of balancing, or by the bandwagoning imperative more characteristic of suzerain-vassal relationships. The main probability is for more of the same, with East Asian security staying within a fairly narrow band between mild conflict formation and a rather odd and weak sort of security regime in which an outside power, the US, plays the key role.     

Geopolitics and the Making of Regions: The Fall and Rise of East Asia

There is a good deal of scepticism about the prospects for regionalism in East Asia. There are, however, grounds for supposing that the outlook for regional integration in East Asia is brighter than it has ever been, partly as a consequence of the rise of China. This article explains why an earlier attempt to integrate the region under Japanese imperialism failed, why US foreign policy has effectively foreclosed any possibility of East Asian integration up to now and why it may be accelerating as a consequence of China's growing economic and political impact on the region. To explain these different historical experiences I draw on a form of critical geopolitics which has recently emerged in economic and political geography and which can usefully be incorporated into international relations scholarship.     

China,the United States,and order transition in East Asia: An economy-security Nexus approach

A dualistic-order thesis has been emerged as a widely-used concept to describe East Asia’s regional dynamics. According to the thesis, the economic and security spheres of the region have become divorced from one other, whereby China and the United States dominate the economic and security realms, respectively. This paper demonstrates the deficiencies of this thesis, based on a comprehensive assessment of the economic and security developments in the region, as well as the strategic choices of small and middle regional powers. In order to form a more accurate and systematic understanding of regional prosperity and stability, this paper develops an economy-security nexus approach by integrating the interactions of regional actors in both the economic and security realms into a unified framework. From this perspective, East Asian regional order is sustained by a delicate coupling of regional economic and security configurations: ‘hot economics’ is accompanied with cooperative security interactions. Although China and the United States are not the dominant actors in either field, their relatively benign interactions in both realms collectively play a significant role by shaping the strategic environment for regional actors, allowing them to enjoy a large degree of strategic flexibility and increase their security and prosperity.     

Globalization, Governance, and the Political-Economy of Public Policy Reform in East Asia

In the wake of the crisis that developed in East Asia during 1997, perceptions of the region have been transformed. Critics claim that East Asian political practices and economic structures must be reformed if the region is to prosper in an era of globalization. In short, the region must adopt a different sort of public policy, one associated with an influential agenda of "good governance." This paper critically assesses this discourse and the predominately "Western" assumptions that underpin it. It is argued that, not only is this reformist agenda likely to be resisted by powerful vested interests, but the institutional infrastructure to support such a style of governance is inadequately developed in East Asia.     

In defence of FTAs: from purity to pragmatism in East Asia

This paper discusses the shift in East Asia from a focus on multilateral trade liberalization through the WTO to a pragmatic approach since 1999 favouring bilateral and regional FTAs while continuing to support the WTO system. It is argued that such FTAs are a second-best option compared to WTO agreements. However, while economists may seek the ideal solution, governments will focus on the politically attainable, especially as new multilateral agreements require lengthy negotiations beyond the life span of governments. As the WTO negotiating process has become bogged down, even once sceptical governments in East Asia are turning to FTAs. It is contended that such FTAs could form a lattice network within and across regions. In this context, the paper discusses the underlying security rationale for the conclusion of FTAs, highlighting the nexus between security interests and international economic policy in East Asia.     

Introduction: making sense of Korean discourses and the East Asian regional order

This opening article presents rationales for the Special Section which analyses South Korea's debates and discourses on crucial issues related to East Asian regional politics. The article opens with a consideration of why attention is drawn to South Korea and particularly to its discourses. Expanding upon constructivist theoretical insights, this article shows how they matter in foreign policy-making and state behaviour. In addition, the article clarifies the scope of analysis of this Special Section. While recognising that many different actors and issues shape the regional order in East Asia to varying degrees, we hold that the most direct impact on changes and/or continuity in that order comes from state actors in the realm of security (or the security–economy nexus). The article ends on a cautiously optimistic note: although the perspectives and discourses analysed in this Special Section are not exhaustive, the analysis can serve as a useful reference point for discussion that seeks to advance our understandings of how South Korea is likely to behave toward its neighbours and what the future of the East Asian regional order will look like.     

Asia … whose Asia? A ‘return to the future’ of a Sino-Indic Asian Community

Abstract

This article is an attempt to provide a corrective to a marked Sinocentrism in contemporary debates on regional integration in Asia. In order to do so, firstly, as a heuristic device, a crucial distinction is made between ‘regionalization’, as involving multifaceted integrative socio-economic processes, and ‘regionalism’, defined as a form of identity construction akin to nationalism. Secondly, a degree of historical depth is proposed to better explain recent developments. Finally, throughout the article, an interdisciplinary approach is taken involving employing realist, historical/sociological institutionalist and constructivist perspectives in the area of international relations. The first two East Asian summits are contextualized in relation to various conceptualizations of an Asian Community over the last century or so. Particular attention is given to the 1955 Asian-African Conference in Bandung as a watershed in this evolution. Varying conceptions of East Asia as part of a larger, transpacific regional entity (APEC) and in, and of, itself (East Asian Economic Group/ASEAN +3) are examined. In situating the first two East Asian summits five developments of significance are examined. These are: a continuing Japanese role in setting the regional agenda; the ambivalence of China's positioning vis-à-vis neighbouring countries; the re-entry of Central Asia in the Asian regional equation; India's ‘return to Asia’; and efforts to maintain ASEAN's centrality in regional construction. These factors, it is argued, are militating towards a return to the Sino-Indic Asia of Bandung. It is thus suggested that notions of an Asian Community involving only Northeast and Southeast Asia are now rejoined by a concept of a Greater Asia. While the historical roots of this conception partly explain its salience, it nevertheless competes with other complementary – and antagonistic – definitions of an Asian Community of more recent lineage.     

Southeast Asia in the study of international relations: The rise and decline of a region

Three features stand out from the literature on Southeast Asia's international relations, written over the last fifty years: the dominance of extra‐regional scholarship; an overwhelming emphasis on regional security, and a related preponderance of realist perspectives; and the appearance, consolidation, and ebbing of the perceived utility of Southeast Asia as a useful analytical region. During the 1990s, there has been a questioning of the realist assumptions which have underlain international relations writing on the region, and there has been increased emphasis on economic issues. Southeast Asians are making an increasingly important contribution to the study of their own region's international relations, though mainly in terms of policy‐oriented research. The most important recent development has been the questioning of Southeast Asia's usefulness as an analytical region, in view of the growing intensity of economic and security relations between Northeast and Southeast Asia.     

A new dynamism in Sino-Japanese security relations: Japan's strategic use of foreign aid

Abstract

In November 2004 a Chinese nuclear submarine cruised into Japan's territorial waters near the Okinawa Islands. In response, the Japanese government dispatched several Japanese naval ships and planes to chase the Chinese submarine until it navigated into international waters. This event, which potentially could have become the first exchange of fire between Japan and China since the Second World War, illuminated increasingly problematic security relations between the two neighbouring countries in the twenty-first century. In fact, deterioration of Sino-Japanese security relations is not a recent phenomenon but has already been evident since the mid-1990s, when Japan imposed a series of economic sanctions on China. Between 1995 and 2000 Japan had suspended its foreign aid to China in protest against: China's nuclear weapons tests; China's large scale war game including the launch of missiles across the Taiwan Strait; and Chinese naval activities in disputed areas in the East China Sea. This article looks at Sino-Japanese security relations since the mid-1990s through three case studies of the aid sanctions imposed by Japan on China. It clarifies the domestic political and bureaucratic interests that motivated aid sanctions and determined the decision-making process leading to these sanctions. The article argues, that with certain politico-security interests, Japanese governments actively used foreign aid as a strategic instrument to counter provocative military actions by China in the East Asian region since the mid-1990s. Despite the limited influence that Japanese aid sanctions have actually had on Chinese military behaviour, Japan's strategic use of foreign aid has undeniably created a new dynamism in security relations between the two neighbouring great powers in Asia.     

India's security partnership with Singapore

Abstract

In recent years, India and Singapore have developed a strong bilateral security and economic partnership that has assumed a central position in India's strategic engagement in Southeast Asia. Having sought strategic engagement with India for many decades, Singapore has now successfully positioned itself as India's leading political partner and economic gateway to the region. At the same time, India and Singapore have actively pursued close defence ties, including frequent joint training and the assumption of an active maritime security role by India in Southeast Asia. The recent decision by India to allow the Singapore air force and army to operate long term training facilities on Indian territory represents a significant development in Indian strategic practice and may presage a more permanent Indian security presence in East Asia. This article will examine these developments and consider to what extent the emergent security relationship between India and Singapore should be seen as a desire to balance China's growing economic and political dominance of the region and to what extent it reflects a ‘natural’ strategic sphere for India stretching from Aden to Singapore and beyond into East Asia.