The resurgence of denial rates for home loans: an examination of disparate effects on groups of applicants in the upper Midwest

Mortgage application denial rates have increased since 2002, but it is unclear to what extent this increase in denials has differentially affected “non-traditional” mortgage applicants that do not resemble “traditional” white, non-Hispanic opposite-sex couple applicants. This article uses augmented Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to investigate disparities in denial rates between traditional and non-traditional mortgage applicants between 2004 and 2008 in the Federal Reserve Bank's ninth district. We find evidence that lenders became more cautious in lending decisions between 2004 and 2008, treating applicants with the same incomes and requested loan amounts differently over time. After accounting for a variety of loan, applicant, lender, and environmental characteristics, we find that many “non-traditional” applicant groups across the ninth district experienced persistently higher mortgage application denial rates when compared to white, non-Hispanic opposite-sex couples. In some cases, the gap in the mortgage application denial rates between non-traditional and traditional applicants has actually increased over time.     

基于空间治理视角的城市贫困研究综述

相较于农村贫困,城市贫困是一种在空间上集聚的相对贫困,明晰它的空间特征、演变规律及影响因素等对于城市贫困的精准治理有着重要作用。为此,应用Citespace科学文献可视化工具,对Web ofScience数据库中1052篇城市贫困主题的英文文献(1995—2019年)和中国知网(CNKI)数据库中2912篇相关中文文献(1981—2019年)进行分析,可从空间视角总结国内外城市贫困的研究现状及研究热点。结果表明:研究趋势上,国外对于城市贫困研究的关注度总体呈现上升趋势,而国内城市贫困的研究起步较晚、增长幅度较大,但在关注度上出现倒U型结构;概念上,从空间视角定义城市贫困多是认为居住区内的人们遭受了不同类型的“剥夺”;研究内容上,城市贫困空间的测量与识别、时空动态变化、影响因素分析及大数据的应用等是国内外城市贫困的研究热点;贫困空间的演变及成因上,受居住、种族和阶级隔离等多种经济文化因素的综合影响,国外的城市贫困呈现由内及外的郊区化现象,而国内城市贫困空间演化较为复杂多变。     

Inner‐city concentrated poverty and neighborhood distress: 1970 to 1990

Abstract

Tract‐level data from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses of population are used to identify poverty neighborhoods, extreme poverty neighborhoods, distressed neighborhoods, and severely distressed neighborhoods within the nation's 100 largest central cities. Changes in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of these neighborhoods are documented, including racial/ethnic composition; poverty population concentration; school dropout rates; and rates of joblessness, single‐parent households, and welfare receipt.

Results show that despite some encouraging individual city turnarounds in the Northeast (especially in New York, Newark, and Philadelphia), urban poverty concentration and neighborhood distress worsened nationwide between 1980 and 1990. The greatest deterioration occurred in midwestern cities, particularly in Detroit. Southern cities, whose neighborhoods and cities typically improved during the 1970s, slipped during the 1980s; conditions in western cities also deteriorated. Blacks fared worse than whites and Hispanics during the 1980s in terms of increased concentration of poor in poverty tracts and distressed urban neighborhoods.     

State Poverty Rates: Do the New Welfare Policies Make a Difference?

This article uses four models to identify the best predictors of state poverty levels and changes in state poverty rates since the implementation of welfare reform. The policy decisions based on the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) by the states are tested along with more traditional variables identified in the literature. Using several measures of state poverty, the analysis finds that those states with the lowest poverty rates are those with the healthiest economies, and the most generous state spending on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). States with the highest percentage of their TANF rolls made up of black citizens tend to have the highest rates of poverty. Initial poverty rates are found to be important in that states with higher initial poverty levels are capable of generating a larger reduction in poverty than states with lower initial rates. With the exception of limited evidence on sanctions, none of the PRWORA–based policies were found to have any effect on poverty rates.     

Application of experimental poverty measures to the aged

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released new, experimental measures of poverty based on a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) panel's recommendations. This article examines the effects of the experimental measures on poverty rates among persons aged 65 or older in order to help inform policy debate. Policymakers and analysts use poverty rates to measure the successes and failures of existing programs and to create and defend new policy initiatives. The Census Bureau computes the official rates of poverty using poverty thresholds and definitions of countable income that have changed little since the official poverty measure was adopted in 1965. Amid growing concerns about the adequacy of the official poverty measure, a NAS panel undertook a study of the concepts, methodology, and data needed to measure poverty. The panel concluded in its 1995 report that the current measure no longer provides an accurate picture of relative rates of poverty for different groups in the population or of changes in poverty over time. The panel recommended changes in establishing the poverty thresholds, defining family resources, and obtaining the required data. The Census Bureau report shows how estimated levels of poverty would differ from the official level as specific recommendations of the NAS panel are implemented individually and how estimated trends would differ when many recommendations are implemented simultaneously. It computes nonstandardized and standardized poverty rates. (The latter constrains the overall poverty rate under the experimental measures to match the official rate.) This article reports poverty rates that have not been standardized and provides considerably more detail than the Census report about the effects of the experimental measures on poverty among the aged. It examines the effects of changing the poverty thresholds and the items included or excluded from the definition of available resources. It also explores the effects of the experimental measures on persons aged 65 or older by age group, gender, race and ethnicity, and marital status. Results indicate that: Poverty rates in 1997 for persons aged 65 or older under the experimental NAS poverty measure are 17.3 percent, compared with 10.5 percent under the official poverty measure. This 65-percent increase is largely driven by the NAS-based measure's subtraction of medical out-of-pocket (MOOP) expenses from resources. Under the NAS-based measures, poverty rates increase for all major groups of older persons, and increase the most for groups for whom the incidence of official poverty is the lowest. The experimental NAS poverty measure shows narrower differences between genders, racial and ethnic groups, and among persons of different marital statuses than the official poverty measure. For example, white Hispanic women aged 65 or older have poverty rates that are 450 percent higher than those for white non-Hispanic men under the official poverty measure and 181 percent higher under the NAS measure. The NAS-based measure's subtraction of MOOP expenses from resources has a disproportionate effect on poverty rates among non-Hispanic whites and men as compared with other groups. However, changes in relative poverty between groups appear to be most influenced by the NAS midpoint equivalence scale. Because this scale decreases poverty rates for persons who live alone or with unrelated individuals and increases them for persons who live with others, poverty rates differ meaningfully under the NAS and official measures among demographic groups. This article highlights issues concerning the elements of the experimental NAS poverty measure that are particularly important to the measurement of poverty among the aged population. Results suggest that the research community's future efforts to refine, enhance, and build upon the NAS panel's recommendations will yield important insights about poverty among the older population.     

THE WAR ON POVERTY: MEASUREMENT,TRENDS, AND POLICY

We present a 50‐year historical perspective of the nation's antipoverty efforts, describing the evolution of policy during four key periods since 1965. Over this half‐century, the initial heavy reliance on cash income support to poor families has eroded; increases in public support came largely in the form of in‐kind (e.g., Food Stamps) and tax‐related (e.g., the Earned Income Tax Credit) benefits. Work support and the supplementation of earnings substituted for direct support. These shifts eroded the safety net for the most disadvantaged in American society. Three poverty‐related analytical developments are also described. The rise of the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM)—taking account of noncash and tax‐related benefits—has corrected some of the serious weaknesses of the official poverty measure (OPM). The SPM measure indicates that the poverty rate has declined over time, rather than being essentially flat as the OPM implies. We also present snapshots of the composition of the poor population in the United States using both the OPM and the SPM, showing progress in reducing poverty overall and among specific socioeconomic subgroups since the beginning of the War on Poverty. Finally, we document the expenditure levels of numerous antipoverty programs that have accompanied the several phases of poverty policy and describe the effect of these efforts on the level of poverty. Although the effectiveness of government antipoverty transfers is debated, our findings indicate that the growth of antipoverty policies has reduced the overall level of poverty, with substantial reductions among the elderly, disabled, and blacks. However, the poverty rates for children, especially those living in single‐parent families, and families headed by a low‐skill, low‐education person, have increased. Rates of deep poverty (families living with less than one‐half of the poverty line) for the nonelderly population have not decreased, reflecting both the increasing labor market difficulties faced by the low‐skill population and the tilt of means‐tested benefits away from the poorest of the poor.     

Voter Disenfranchisement and Policy toward Election Reforms

How did poverty, race, population density, and other demographic characteristics affect disenfranchisement in the 2004 presidential election? I argue that there are two types of disenfranchisement: partisan disenfranchisement, which targets Democrats, and structural disenfranchisement, which targets members of low‐status groups. Drawing demographic data from the United States census in 2000, and voting data from the secretaries of state websites, I use a negative binomial regression to correlate these variables with the incidence of voter disenfranchisement as collected by the Election Incident Reporting System, for the three “swing” states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, with the “safe” states of California and Texas as controls. The results of this analysis indicate that disenfranchisement increases with population density, Black population, Democratic loyalty, and as the margin of victory decreases. Income and education also correlate with an increase in reported incidents of disenfranchisement, but that likely reflects the failings of self‐report data.     

Are State Marriage Initiatives Having an Eff ect ?An Initial Exploration of the Impact on Divorce and Childhood Poverty Rates

The central question addressed by this article is the effect of state-level marriage initiatives on divorce and childhood poverty rates. State divorce rates have been problematic for researchers because of variation across states in the way they are compiled. This research takes a different approach, measuring instead the prevalence of divorce rather than the number of divorces granted in a given state or year. The authors use this indicator, derived from Current Population Survey data, as an outcome measure in a test of marriage initiatives, and as an independent variable in a childhood poverty analysis. The quasi-experimental design employs time-series and cross-section regression analysis. Results show a significant negative effect from marriage initiatives on divorce prevalence, and a significant positive association between divorce prevalence and childhood poverty rates.     

Development and legitimacy of Chinese informal finance

Abstract

Cambodia is facing the familiar problem of achieving sustained rates of economic growth that could help it alleviate widespread poverty. Against the background of some encouraging developments, and quite a few that are not equally reassuring, we argue that any push for development needs to consider both agriculture and industry. This is so as both labour absorption, primarily in secondary sector activities, and productivity growth in agriculture are necessary to lift large segments of the population out of the poverty associated with subsistence agriculture, landlessness and informal sector activities. Given that the major success story of the past decade – the garment and textile industry – is under threat, we conclude that Cambodia is yet to achieve an economic take-off.     

MYTHS ABOUT PUBLIC WELFARE: POVERTY, FAMILY INSTABILITY, AND TEEN ILLEGITIMACY

To rationalize federal cutbacks in spending for public welfare, President Reagan charged that public welfare programs are responsible for leading to a "national tragedy involving family breakdown, teen-age illegitimacy and worsening poverty." Yet analysis of 1980 and 1982 census data for the 50 states suggests that if this is so, it is because of low, not high, spending for public welfare. While low state spending for public welfare is predictive of high teen illegitimacy rates and directly linked to high state poverty and divorce rates, higher state spending for public welfare is predictive of lower teen birth rates, and linked to lower rates of family breakup and poverty. Despite limitations inherent in the analysis, the findings challenge the contention that spending for public welfare contributes to family breakup, teen illegitimacy and poverty.     

Achievements and challenges of energy poverty alleviation policies: Evidence from the select states in India

Indian energy sector has undergone a tremendous transformation with consistent government policy interventions since 2000. Against this backdrop, we examine the extent to which energy poverty has decreased due to the expansion of energy services and the significant determinants of energy poverty in select six states in India. Overall, results reveal that absolute multidimensional energy poverty has substantially decreased across all states examined in the study as well as across all income and social groups between 2015 and 2018. Specifically, acute multidimensional energy poverty has reduced by an average of 30% between 2015 and 2018 in six states. At the same time, dependency on biomass remains more or less the same between 2015 and 2018. Results also show that inequality in the access to energy across income and social groups exists, and education is negatively related to energy poverty. Energy poverty has declined by a similar percentage among most employment groups, except for people practicing cattle rearing. Finally, culture is a significant determinant of energy poverty as households with the elderly and more land owned have higher energy poverty, probably due to the easy access to biomass and preference of such households to use it.     

The Effects of Contraception on Female Poverty

Poverty rates are particularly high among households headed by single women, and childbirth is often the event preceding these households’ poverty spells. This paper examines the relationship between legal access to the birth control pill and female poverty. We rely on exogenous cross‐state variation in the year in which oral contraception became legally available to young, single women. Using census data from 1960 to 1990, we find that having legal access to the birth control pill by age 20 significantly reduces the probability that a woman is subsequently in poverty. We estimate that early legal access to oral contraception reduces female poverty by 0.5 percentage points, even when controlling for completed education, employment status, and household composition.     

Issue compensation and right‐wing government social spending

It is well‐established that prolonged left‐wing incumbency has a positive long‐term effect on welfare effort in terms of high levels of social spending and reduced levels of economic inequality and poverty. Prolonged left‐wing incumbency also influences the institutional set‐up of welfare states, in particular generating strong support for existing arrangements in countries with large welfare states. The issue ownership literature furthermore shows that the public comes to distrust right‐wing parties as defenders of the welfare state. In countries that have a tradition of left‐wing incumbency it is particularly important for right‐wing governments to compensate for the distrust of the public because of the popularity of the welfare state and strong vested interests. While right‐wing governments on average are negatively associated with social spending, there is a strong positive association between right‐wing government and social spending in traditionally left‐wing countries. It is even the case that right‐wing governments in these countries spend more on social welfare than left‐wing governments. This indicates that right‐wing governments are forced to compensate for the lack of public trust by being even more generous than the left.     

Real Denial Rates: A New Tool to Look at Who Is Receiving Mortgage Credit

ABSTRACT

The observed mortgage denial rate (ODR), calculated from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, is often used to measure mortgage credit availability, but it does not account for shifts in applicants’ credit profiles. In this article, we develop an additional tool, which we call the real denial rate (RDR), as a way to account for credit differences and hence more consistently measure denial rates and mortgage credit accessibility. We match HMDA data with CoreLogic proprietary data to obtain both borrower demographic information (e.g., income and race and ethnicity) and mortgage credit characteristics (e.g., loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and credit scores). We account for shifts in applicants’ credit profiles by considering only the denial rate of low-credit-profile applicants. Our RDR results show that conventional mortgages have higher denial rates than government mortgages do, racial and ethnic differences are smaller than the ODR indicates but are not eliminated, and small-dollar mortgages have higher RDRs, particularly in the government loan channel.     

Escaping poverty: behind the numbers

Head counts of poverty are the most commonly used indicator of poverty level. While not ideal, the analysis of poverty head counts informs conclusions about whether households move in or out of poverty over time. Longitudinal data from repeated surveys show that, at the country level, some countries have lifted their populations out of poverty, while the populations of other countries have either remained poor or become poorer. How these scenarios come to be is the key question that challenges the development community. What mix of country characteristics, policies, structural features and external influences conspire to either improve or deteriorate well-being and to affect overall poverty levels? Unfortunately, changes in poverty levels might sometimes be the result of changes in poverty measurement methodology, with no real change in the well-being of the population. For this reason, poverty assessment should begin with an analysis of the measurement methodology – particularly given the increased global enthusiasm for poverty reduction. This article examines panel data from Mongolia and the Philippines to show how seemingly slight variations in survey methodology can have a rather significant impact on poverty results. In order to make a robust comparison of poverty head counts from different surveys, the basic building blocks of the poverty measures must be identical. This is not always the case. Given the difficulties identified with money-metric head counts, this study concludes by arguing for a move beyond economic statistics, toward multidisciplinary approaches to poverty assessment. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Television, code law, and integrated markets

The rise in network broadcasting may just be coincidental with the rise in federal regulation. Other possible explanations for the rise of the regulatory state include Democratic control of Congress and the size of the economy. Television ownership rates are herein found to have a negative relationship with the count of Federal Register pages. It is also noted that regulation at the state level was not completely crowded out by the rise in federal social regulation and the decline in economic regulation.     

Is Ethnic Diversity Bad for Any Dimension of Social Capital? Trust,Networks and Voluntarism in Norwegian Communities

Ethnic diversity has been posed as a threat to social capital, but results from existing research are inconclusive. This study takes as its starting point that different aspects of social capital may be influenced differently by ethnic diversity and uses one specific welfare state context – Norway – to explore such variations. Analysing an original dataset, nine different measures are used to explore three dimensions of social capital in 61 communities in Norway, amongst the majority population and residents with immigrant background. The results suggest, first, a differentiated impact of ethnic heterogeneity on trust. Ethnic diversity is negatively associated with spatially bounded forms of trust, but not with generalized trust. Second, a negative association with traditional forms of voluntarism is found – albeit this latter relationship is much weaker than the former. Third, the results suggest that these relationships are fairly similar across different (immigrant) groups. Although residents with immigrant background typically express lower levels of generalized trust than the majority population, the relative differences between residents living in diverse or homogeneous communities are limited. Given its strong institutions Norway could be seen as a least likely case for studying the impact of ethnic diversity on social capital. On the one hand, effects are more limited than what has been found in studies from the United States. On the other hand, the fact that effects are found on community trust and volunteering indicates that this type of societal model can indeed be affected by ethnic diversification.     

How policy variables influence the timing of applications for Social Security Disability Insurance

This article analyzes the impact of policy variables--employer accommodations, state Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) allowance rates, and DI benefits--on the timing of an application for DI benefits by workers with a work-limiting health condition starting when their health condition first begins to bother them. The analysis uses a rich mixture of personal and employer characteristics from the Health and Retirement Study linked to Social Security administrative records. We find that most workers do not apply immediately for DI benefits when they are first bothered by a health condition. On the contrary, the median working-age man with a work-limiting condition waits 7 years after that time before applying, and the median working-age woman waits 8 years. Although the risk of applying for benefits is greatest in the year following onset, only 16 percent of men and 13 percent of women in our sample apply within the first year, and the risk of application falls thereafter. That finding suggests that institutional factors, in addition to health factors, may play a role in the timing of DI applications. Using kernel density estimates of the distribution of application and nonapplication ordered by state allowance rates (the rate of acceptance per DI determination in each state), we find that both men and women who live in states with high allowance rates are disproportionately more likely to apply for benefits in the first year after their condition begins to bother them than are those in states with low allowance rates. Using life-table analysis, we also find that men and women who are accommodated by their employers are significantly less likely to apply for DI benefits in each of the first few years after their condition begins to bother them than are those who are not accommodated. On the basis of this evidence, we include these policy variables in a model of the timing of DI application that controls for other socioeconomic variables as well as health. Using a hazard model, we find that workers who live in states with higher allowance rates apply for DI benefits significantly sooner than those living in states with lower allowance rates following the onset of a work-limiting health condition. Workers who are accommodated following the onset of a work-limiting health condition, however, are significantly slower to apply for DI benefits. Using the mean values of all explanatory variables, we estimate the relative importance of changes in these policy variables on the speed with which workers apply for benefits after onset. We find that the mean time until application for men is 10.22 years. Universal accommodations following onset would delay application by 4.36 years. In contrast, a 20 percent decrease in state allowance rates would delay application by only 0.88 years. For working-age women, the average expected time until application once a condition begins to bother them is 10.58 years. Universal accommodations would delay that by 3.76 years, and a 20 percent decrease in allowance rates would delay it by 1.47 years. A complication in this analysis is that the policy variables are to some degree endogenous. Accommodation is probably offered more often to workers who want to continue working. Allowance rates are chosen by states on the basis of federal policy and local choices and probably in part on the health condition of workers in the state. Therefore, our estimates are upper bounds of these policy effects. Still, we believe we provide evidence that the social environment faced by workers with work-limiting health conditions can significantly influence their decision to apply for DI benefits, holding their specific health conditions constant.     

Race,income, and home PC ownership: a regional analysis of the digital divide

While digital divide research has focused on differences in computer access at the national level, few studies have examined interrelationships among race, income, and personal computer (PC) ownership at the regional level. This article examines the racial and economic divide in home PC ownership across four census regions of the U.S. Our analyses are based on supplementary data from the Census Bureau’s August 2000 Current Population Survey. The results indicate that White households are significantly more likely to own a PC than African American households in all regions. The extent of this racial divide is greatest in the Midwest and smallest in the West, and particularly high in the $50,000–$75,000 income category. The racial divide in PC ownership is negated only in households earning more than $75,000 annually. A significantly large income divide also exists among African American PC owners in all regions.     

Politics, Altruism, and the Definition of Poverty

The history of poverty lines suggests that they are determined jointly with poverty policy in the same political game. If the definition of poverty is endogenous, however, why do altruistic voters allow poverty to persist indefinitely, as seems to be the case in real life? A simple redistribution model shows that the persistence of poverty imposes fairly strong restrictions on the nature of voter altruism. Specifically, a voter's compassion for the poor must rise as the defined severity of the poverty problem worsens. Given such preferences, political actors face incentives to define poverty as a severe problem and then to use redistribution to reduce it significantly. There is no direct incentive to eliminate poverty, however; indeed, voters may prefer a state in which policy always attacks poverty vigorously and yet never defeats it. It follows that social policy should not be judged by its success in eliminating poverty, which may be directly counter to voter interests and therefore practically impossible. Rather, we should ask whether poverty policy provides enough help to people whom voters currently consider to be poor.