当前生育政策微调的不可行性研究

本文认为,在不少省份"双独"或"单独"子女可以生育二孩的政策规定是否贯彻执行,应当慎重对待。执行微调确实存在一定的挑战性和风险性。只有取代微调的养老手段及配套措施的实施,才有望达到一孩并不比二孩差的赡养效果。     

计划生育政策改革路径分析——以“单独二孩”政策为视角

伴随着人口红利的逐渐消失,我国人口结构濒临失衡,独生子女家庭抵御风险能力持续下降,现行生育政策的弊端日益凸显。在坚持计划生育基本国策的前提下,启动"单独二孩"政策,转变人口工作理念,逐步推行家庭计划指导促进模式,落实国家保障义务,建立健全失独抚慰补助制度,是解决此类问题的有效途径,亦符合十八届三中全会关于调整完善生育政策、促进人口长期均衡发展的要求。     

二孩生育与城市妇女就业的“互相关”——一个经济学分析视角

二孩生育与城市妇女就业是一个互相关过程:二孩生育对城市妇女就业存在负面影响,同时城市妇女就业参与也会降低二孩生育水平。从经济学视角分析,主要原因是二孩生育与妇女就业的相对机会成本高和生育的边际成本高。缓解城市妇女生育和就业的矛盾,经济措施包括转移企业承担的生育成本、实施家庭津贴制度、规范和发展家政服务市场。     

中国生育水平预测与生育政策展望

中国目前的总和生育率存在争议,而未来总和生育率的变动趋势对生育政策的制定有重要意义.本文基于矫正过的生育率数据,使用随机预测方法,对1998年以后的生育水平进行了预测.结果发现,到2028年中国的总和生育率有可能降低到1.3的超低生育水平.在介绍当前生育政策争议的基础上,讨论了其它低生育水平国家的经验和对策,并给出了政策建议.     

中国需要“人口生育新政”

##正##穆光宗在《学海》2014年第1期撰文指出,从战略的高度出发,在中国,仅仅"放开生育"已经不足以应对全新的人口危机。即便是还权于民,可以自主生育,但是由于高昂的生养成本的约束,必然使很多年轻家庭在选择二胎生育时望而止步,国家还是难以走出超低生育率的困境。中国目前需要自主负责的生育政策和家庭友好的发展政策。要达到适度的生育水平,要     

完善“三孩”政策配套措施

<正>实施“三孩”政策，对于积极应对人口老龄化、促进人口长期均衡发展意义重大。从国家统计局发布的数据分析，“三孩”政策落实效果并不理想，2022年我国出生人口为956万人，低于2021年的1062万人。调研发现，除了经济压力、没有时间照护等因素外，房屋空间不足已成为城市家庭放弃生育“二孩”或“三孩”的主要原因。受访者普遍表示，随着“三孩”政策的实施，将出现三代同住或者家人与职业保姆同住的情况，从而增加家庭人口的实际数量，需要通过“以小换大”或再购入一套住房，改善房屋空间需求。如果这种需求得不到满足，生育“二孩”或“三孩”很难真正落到实处。我国房地产政策是基于计划生育独生子女背景制定的，根据国家有关规定，商品房分为普通住房和非普通住房，     

全面二孩时代下女性生育意愿及相关问题浅析

我国步入老龄化社会已成为不争的事实,为积极应对迫在眉睫的人口问题,我国严格推行的计划生育政策宣告终结,正式进入"全面二孩"时代。本文通过对哈尔滨市育龄女性生育意愿及影响因素进行调查研究,发现生育成本、就业压力、计划生育政策长期影响下的生育意愿惯性以及缺乏相应的人力、物力、精力和场所对孩子进行照顾等方面成为影响育龄女性生育意愿的关键因素,笔者从社会政策视角出发,分析研究打消女性生育顾虑的可能,使"全面二孩"政策发挥应有之义。     

高出生性别比地区人口预测研究——基于育龄妇女生育意愿调查

湖北省是人口大省,出生性别比失衡是该省面临的突出人口问题之一。通过运用湖北省鄂州、黄石和仙桃三市的调研数据对育龄妇女的生育意愿现状进行分析,证实二孩政策能够基本满足育龄妇女的生育意愿。在此基础上,针对性别比严重失衡的鄂州地区,运用该市2000年人口普查数据,在现行生育政策和不同实施方案的二孩政策下对该市未来人口发展进行了计算机模拟预测与对比分析,结果表明:二孩间隔生育政策在控制人口总量、稳定低生育水平、保证正常的出生性别比等方面优于现行政策和无间隔二孩政策,该政策对于解决出生性别比严重失衡地区的人口问题仍然具有明显的作用。     

生育支持体系对青年流动女性就业的影响研究

生育支持体系对缓解个人的"工作-家庭"冲突与促进国家的"生育-就业"共举具有重要作用。运用2013年中国流动人口动态监测数据,以已育一孩的青年流动女性为研究对象,关注生育保险、孕产服务和抚育照料三方面的生育支持因素对其生育后是否就业的影响。通过构造工具变量、交互效应和分样本检验等统计模型进行实证分析,发现对产后是否就业而言,生育保险的作用具有长效性和稳定性,孕产服务的作用具有时效性和类别性,抚育照料的影响具有选择性和先导型。构建和推行一套与"全面二孩"政策相配套的生育支持体系,对解决中国当前人口生产面临的困境及相关问题有着极为重要的意义。     

“全面二孩”政策下城市居民生育意愿调查分析——以济南市、烟台市、济宁市为例

从19世纪80年代的计划生育政策到2013年的单独二孩政策再到现在的全面二孩政策,政策调整的背后是我国人口结构的变化。经过对济南市、烟台市、济宁市部分地区的城市居民进行的生育意愿调查研究表明城市居民对于二孩的生育意愿尚可,但经济压力、工作压力、年龄等成为众多居民不愿生育二孩的现实因素。在此调查结论的基础上,本文提出相应的建议为相关部门完善政策提供理论依据。     

On the Formation of Family Structures

Hitherto, models of family economics focus on explaining theorganization of monogamous and polygynous family patterns. A thirdexisting marriage pattern, polyandrous marriages, has beenneglected. This paper shows that – in contrast to the common view – a polyandrous marriage may be individually rational. I considera game theoretic model of a subsistence economy whose membersmaximize their personal reproductive success. In this model, allthree family formations can appear as equilibrium solutions.     

The Cuban family: principal sociodemographic features that have characterized its development and dynamics

"This study deals with the principal sociodemographic features which have characterized the development and dynamics of the Cuban family during the last decade. It also describes the way in which sociocultural changes taking place in Cuba have influenced the family. The article includes an analysis of average age at first marriage or union, types of marriage, changes in fertility rates (and how women contribute to these changes depending on their age), and the dissolution of the family unit." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Unwanted fertility in Mexico

Data from the 1987 National Health and Fertility Survey were used to explore trends and differentials in unwanted fertility in Mexico. Women were classified in three educational categories: illiterate or incomplete primary, complete primary or some secondary, and complete secondary or more. The four urbanization categories were: under 2500; 2500 to 19,999; 20,000 and more; and metropolitan areas. The place of primary socialization was the place of residence until age 12. Two categories of employment of household head were included, agricultural or nonagricultural. The categories for mother's employment considered employment until the union and employment between the time of union and the birth of the first child. The proportion of births that were unwanted was estimated by calculating the total fertility rate for the year before the survey and comparing it to desired family size. The "total desired family size" was 2.4 for the entire sample. In other words, nearly 37% of the total fertility rate was undesired. The greatest differentials in percentages of undesired fertility were found in educational categories. 40.7% of the total fertility rate in the least educated groups vs. 13.6% in the most educated groups was undesired. Differentials in the other categories ranged from 1.9 for a history of employment before the birth of the first child to 8.8 for agricultural or nonagricultural employment of the household head. When effects of education were controlled, the percentage of undesired fertility declined as educational level increased for all rural or urban residence categories, places of socialization, and employment groups except women who worked before the first child was born. Women with more education, urban residence, and with histories of employment had the lowest levels of undesired fertility.     

The one-child policy in China

Although the government of the People's Republic of China manifested sporadic concern about the nation's rapid population growth beginning at the time of the 1953 national census, it was not until the 1970s that a small family with a maximum of 2 children began to be promoted through a national campaign of education and persuasion. With the subsequent advent of the 1-child policy in 1979, the family planning campaign became a campaign for population planning in which the government no longer limited itself to contraceptive education and distribution, but began to intervene in human reproduction to accomodate it to material production. China's population policy, despite setbacks and delays, has had notable results. No other predominantly peasant society has achieved such a significant fertility decline in such a short time, but the price has been high. The problems have included confrontation with ancient cultural traditions, interference of the government in the most intimate aspects of family life, the sacrifice of a natural desire for children, evasion of marriage and birth registration, and even female infanticide. The incentives and sanctions for the 1-child policy have been primarily economic in nature, but widespread coercion and abuse have been reported. Although China's fertility has declined steadily since 1971, the fall was considerably greater in the cities, where the expense of children and critical housing shortages have effectively discouraged childbearing. In the countryside the dismantling of the communes and substitution of a system of family responsibility for agricultural production have had a strong pronatalist effect, reinforcing the desire for children as a means of old age security. The costs of children in rural areas are insignificant compared to the cities, housing is less crowded, and fertility sanctions are harder to enforce. Rural discontent and resistence to government family planning policy nevertheless became so acute that it was probably a factor in the 1984 relaxation of the 1-child policy in certain rural areas. Despite considerable success, the Chinese government has not met its family planning goals. 32.3 million couples, or 18% of fertile-aged couples, have expressed willingness to have only 1 child. The 32.3 million include 36% of urban and 11% of rural couples. According to a July 1988 fertility survey, the crude birth rate dropped to 8.84/1000, but the rates of early marriage and adolescent pregnancy were increasing. A major problem in the next 5 years will be the arrival at marriageable age of the large cohorts born around the time of the Cultural Revolution.     

Labor trajectories and reproductive behavior: a comparison between Mexico and Spain

Data from the 1987 Mexican National Survey of Fertility and Health and the fertility survey carried out by Spain's National Institute of Statistics in 1985 were the basis for a comparison of the fertility histories and labor force participation of women of different cohorts in the two countries. Both surveys included questions on employment before marriage, between marriage and the birth of the first child, and at the present time. Eight combinations were possible, including continuous employment in all three periods and no history of employment in any period. The survey populations included women ever married or in union, with at least one live-born child, and aged between 15 and 49 years for Mexico and 18 and 49 years in Spain. Economic conditions in Mexico and Spain are dissimilar, and women's labor force participation patterns have varied as well. The Mexican survey indicated a current labor force participation rate of 37% for women aged 20-49. 42% of women aged 30-39 were employed. In Spain, 43% of women aged 18-49 were economically active. Around 60% of widowed, divorced, separated, and single women were employed. In Mexico, 38.2% of respondents had not worked in any of the three periods, 20.4% had worked in all three, and 17/7% had worked only before the first marriage or union. 61.5% of Mexican respondents had worked in at least one of the three periods. The cohort born in 1957-61 appears to be transitional to a pattern in which work outside the home assumes greater importance. In Spain, 31.3% of respondents had worked only before the first marriage or union, 24.8% had never worked, and 23.7% had worked in all three periods. 75.2% had worked in at least one of the three periods. The older Spanish cohorts had lower rates of labor force participation and the younger cohorts tendered to have higher activity rates, combining motherhood and outside employment to a greater extent. The cohort aged 25-29 at the time of the survey, which had a high proportion of women working continuously in the three periods and an intense activity rate at the time of the survey, appeared to be the transitional cohort between traditional and modern lifestyles. Thus, in both countries the cohorts aged 25-29 were those which managed to combine childbearing with employment to the greatest extent. In both Mexico and Spain,, the women within the cohort aged 25-29 with the highest activity rates were those with higher levels of education and those living in larger cities.     

Government Transfers and the Samaritan's Dilemma in the Family

This paper examines the effectiveness of government transfersin overcoming the Samaritan's dilemma in a family in which thechild saves an insufficient amount in order to induce largerbequests from the parent. The results are as follows. First,exogenous government transfers do not affect intergenerationalconsumption allocation if bequests are operative. Second,assuming that government transfers are chosen strategically,the government precommits to such a level of transfers fromthe parent to the child that bequests become inoperative, andthus rids the child of the incentive for undersaving. Thisengenders an efficient intertemporal allocation ofconsumption.     

弃婴与收养:计划生育与村落生育文化的冲撞与耦合——对1990年代赣南农村计划生育政策运行逻辑的一项微观解读

20世纪末赣南农村涌现的弃婴潮和收养高峰在一定程度上消解了国家计划生育政策的实施绩效。弃婴与收养的潮起潮落,不仅折射出村落生育文化的转变,更裹挟着国家与农民关系的转型意味。在这个意义上,计划生育政策背后所隐藏的实际上是国家与农民关系问题,亦即国家权力该如何与数量众多且又高度分散的小农相对接的问题。由此,国家计划生育目标的实现不仅依赖于政策制度的设计,而且要充分考量政策运行的社会基础。     

Conservative Party Modernisation and David Cameron's Politics of the Family

A key feature of David Cameron's electoral appeal is his carefully cultivated image as a ‘family man’. Cameron has repeatedly stressed the importance of the family to his political views and stated his desire to see marriage rewarded through the tax system. At the same time, Cameron has presented himself as a modernising leader, keen to demonstrate that he and his party are in touch with contemporary society. Central to this effort to detoxify the Conservative brand has been an emphasis on social liberalism. The potential conflict between these two objectives reflects the division in the party between social liberals and traditionalists, which has become increasingly apparent over the past decade. This article examines Conservative party policy and rhetoric on social and moral issues since 1997, particularly gay rights and family policy. It notes that a significant divide remains in the Conservative party between social liberals and traditionalists, so in this respect Cameron's modernisation project remains far from complete.     

家庭、国家与儿童福利供给

儿童抚育事务在传统上主要由家庭承担。工业革命之后,西方国家才开始系统关注并发展儿童社会福利,为抚育儿童的父母提供制度化的国家支持,并对父母亲权的实践进行国家监督。尽管不同的儿童社会福利理论对于如何界定家庭与国家在儿童抚育与儿童福利供给过程中的关系模式存有分歧,但是,关注得不到家庭适当抚育的儿童的福利,并为其提供必要的福利服务,已经成为现代国家的共识。鉴于我国传统的以家庭为主的儿童抚育模式出现失灵,积极发展选择性的儿童福利服务具有其充分的合理性。