印度大型活动安保

“大型活动”,是指在特定时间内,面向社会临时占用或者租用公共场所举办的,由不特定多数人参加的公共活动。主要包括体育比赛、文艺活动、展览展销、庆典、重大会议、民间传统活动等。由于大型活动具有规模大、持续时间长、参与人数难以预测、人群构成复杂等特点,因此更容易出现各种安全风险,酿成各类突发事件,进而造成严重的生命和财产损失。因此,大型活动的安全保卫工作受到广泛关注。     

福兮祸兮——从我国通信企业角度看专利经营公司的利弊

从通行行业的角度对各类专利经营公司的商业模式进行分析，并对其进行风险识别，指出在目前的法律体系下，中国的通信企业应该在加强专利防御能力的同时，通过各种途径展开积极的自救，尽可能地规避专利经营公司对自身安全运营可能带来的风险。     

廉政风险防范管理机制建设中的难点

难点之一：如何确保廉政风险识别的真实性、客观性。按照现代管理理论，量化考核标准是保证风险点作用效益最大化的重要前提。适时、准确地识别风险，是廉政风险管理机制建设的关键。所以，廉政风险评估的真实性、客观性就显得尤为重要。有些廉政风险很难确定，如，在思想道德风险的排查中，如何评价党员干部是否丧失信仰、思想堕落，这需要一些客观标准，需要建立相应的指标体系。     

大型危险化学品加工企业遭受恐怖袭击风险的威胁和脆弱性分析

恐怖分子可能对大型危险化学品生产加工企业进行恐怖袭击，造成危险物质释放。对恐怖袭击威胁进行评估，可以确定现有的安全措施和保卫是否足够，是否需要提高。风险评估是过程安全程序的核心内容。对于危险化学品生产企业来说，需要一种直接的，容易实施的风险评估方法，本文提出了一种能够满足上述要求的方法。     

专利实施许可中的风险及其控制研究

对专利实施许可风险进行了界定,在此基础上详细阐述了可能出现的各类风险及其表现,并提出了相应的对策.研究成果有利于全面、细致地识别专利实施许可中各类风险,为风险的量化管理和预防治理研究提供依据.     

风险评价在公路客运安全管理中的应用探讨

风险评价是一门新兴的分析评价管理技术,是控制重大危害,减少人员伤亡,财产损失和环境保护的一个重要手段.由于公路客运的安全涉及到司机、乘客、汽车、道路、各种气候环境以及运输过程管理的方法,监督的体制等多方面的因素.所以运输过程存在的风险、不安全因素具有很大的随机性、潜伏性、不确定性和偶然性,这给运输全过程的安全运行、管理带来了难题.针对公路客运过程存在风险的普遍性和不确定性,本文提出了风险评价的方法和思路,详细分析了客运系统存在的风险,并用风险评估矩阵初步得出了此系统风险的大小,进而提出相应的风险管理决策,用以消除或减小道路交通运输存在的安全隐患,降低事故发生的概率和事故损失.     

论民营企业对外直接投资之风险评估与防控

民营企业对外直接投资是一项高风险的经济行为,与国有大型企业相比存在化解风险能力弱、获得公共资源少的"剪刀差",因而,需要评估其投资风险并提出相应的防控建议。运用层次分析及回归分析,从历年中国对外直接投资统计公报中抽取了两大类、八个主项、二十个分项、十二个量化指标构建风险评估指标体系,并通过风险等级化、专家意见采样、SPSS统计分析等实现了风险指数的初步评估。结合评估意见,建议民营企业在对外直接投资过程中有效建构包含有风险识别、风险评估、风险预防、风险排除的全流程风险防控机制,重点防控政治风险、市场风险、技术风险、管理风险、财务风险等高风险。     

安检排爆研讨会5月在深圳举办

随着我国经济建设的飞速发展和国际地位的日益提高，在我国举办的各类国际性会议和大型活动也日益增多，如2008年北京奥运会、2010年上海世博会、广州亚运会和2011年深圳大运会等，这些活动的举办给安全保卫工作带来严峻的挑战。港口、机场、车站、隧道、边检口岸、比赛场馆等群众性活动聚集场所和大型交通枢纽的安全逐渐成为国内外各界关注的焦点。     

论风险评估和风险预防的一致性——以《卡塔赫纳生物安全议定书》的相关规定为视角

作为国际社会第一个有约束力的专门规范转基因生物越境转移的多边环境协定———《卡塔赫纳生物安全议定书》,既要求转基因生物进口国的有关决定要以风险评估为基础,又包含了有关风险预防的若干规定。风险评估不会先天地阻碍或抵消风险预防在决策过程中的作用。同时,风险预防是以风险评估为基础的风险预防,当然也不会与基于科学证据的风险评估相冲突。《卡塔赫纳生物安全议定书》中规定的风险评估和风险预防是完全协调一致的。     

大型危险化学品加工企业遭受恐怖袭击风险的威胁和脆弱性分析

恐怖分子可能对大型危险化学品生产加工企业进行恐怖袭击,造成危险物质释放.对恐怖袭击威胁进行评估,可以确定现有的安全措施和保卫是否足够,是否需要提高.风险评估是过程安全程序的核心内容.对于危险化学品生产企业来说,需要一种直接的,容易实施的风险评估方法,本文提出了一种能够满足上述要求的方法.     

Blurring the dimensions of privacy? Law enforcement and trusted traveler programs

Risk has become a ubiquitous tool for security governance. This paper analyzes the ongoing shift in airport/aviation security from rule-based to risk-based screening. Seeking to explore the effects of data based passenger risk assessment on privacy through the collection and processing of personal data, it is argued that risk is likely to enroll passengers into a partly voluntary, partly enforced membership in trusted traveler schemes in order to enhance the database, thus enabling a more precise assessment of risk levels. In a disciplinary spatial setting, the once distinct privacy dimensions of citizen-state and consumer-market become increasingly blurred, as law enforcement authorities seek to exploit data that was originally obtained for commercial purposes to improve risk calculations.     

‘Their life in your hands’: the experiences of prison-based psychologists conducting risk assessments with indeterminate sentenced prisoners in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

Assessing prisoners’ risk of recidivism and making risk-management recommendations is central to the work of prison-based psychologists. Risk assessment is particularly crucial when it involves indeterminate sentenced prisoners: psychologists’ recommendations have potentially significant consequences both for prisoners and the public. However, little is known about psychologists’ experiences of conducting such high stakes risk assessments. This paper reports the results of an exploration of psychologists’ experiences, via interviews and discussions with qualified, prison-based psychologists. Analysis using Grounded Theory methods identified one super-ordinate category of meaning, namely The Challenging Context of Risk Assessment, which comprised two sub-categories: (1) pressure of limited resources and (2) pressure of the environment. An additional major category, Risk Assessment as a Weighty Task, comprised three sub-categories: psychologists described (1) a weight of responsibility relating to the magnitude and range of their responsibilities; (2) a weight of expectation from colleagues to provide solutions, and (3) the trainee dilemma associated with the need to balance development of trainee psychologists’ competence in risk assessment with being held accountable for their work. Understanding qualified psychologists’ experiences of undertaking risk assessments with indeterminate sentenced prisoners can facilitate improvements and build on areas of existing good practice.     

Field validity of the HCR-20 in forensic medium security units in Flanders

Structured risk assessment has become a part of routine practice in forensic settings. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of existing tools. The present research focused on the performance of the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) – one of the most commonly used tools for structured professional judgment – in the daily practice of three medium security units in Flanders. Areas under the curve for the prediction of violent recidivism during (N?=?168) and after (N?=?105) medium security treatment were non-significant. In addition, analyses showed that the HCR-20 was mainly of interest in identifying low-risk individuals. Further research measuring different aspects of predictive validity in applied settings is recommended.     

Risk assessment for intimate partner violence: how can the police assess risk?

ABSTRACT

The use of risk assessment tools by frontline police for intimate partner violence has the potential to make a difference to policing. In this paper, the key aspects of intimate partner violence risk assessment are outlined critically with a particular emphasis on how they can be used in practice. Two, evidence-based, exemplars are reviewed. These are the Ontario Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment (ODARA), an example of the actuarial approach, and the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER), an example of the structured professional judgement approach. In addition, the victim giving his or her own appraisal of risk is discussed. All three approaches have some validity when administered properly but practical factors reduce this validity. The content of the risk assessment tools are outlined and practical concerns such as training, time to administer, reliability, validity, and the overlap of intimate partner violence with other forms of offending are discussed. A balanced overview of the strengths, weaknesses and future potential of intimate partner violence risk assessment is provided.     

危化品公路运输事故研究现状及其防灾对策

危险化学品公路运输事故频繁发生,已成为严重影响社会公共安全的流动危险源。本文分析了危险化学品公路运输事故特点,总结了国内外危险化学品公路运输事故研究现状,指出我国目前研究的不足。在对危险化学品公路运输事故特点和研究现状充分认识基础上,结合我国的实际情况,提出了建设性的防灾对策及建议。     

Integrating DSM-IV Factors to Predict Violence in High-Risk Psychiatric Patients

Abstract:  This study incorporated Axis-II and Axis-IV factors in DSM-IV to test the relationship between predicted risk for violence assessed in the psychiatric emergency room and actual violence during hospitalization. Psychiatric nurses lack an objective instrument to use during the acute psychiatric assessment. The retrospective study comprised consecutive psychiatric admissions ( n  = 161) in one tertiary veterans' hospital. Statistical testing for the predictive power of risk factors, relationships between variables, and violent events included nonparametric tests, factor analysis, and logistic regression. Of the 32 patients who committed violence during hospitalization, 12 had committed violence in the psychiatric emergency room. Statistical significance was shown for violent incidents and dementia, court-ordered admission, mood disorder, and for three or more risk factors. The 13-item Risk of Violence Assessment (ROVA) scale suggests validity and sensitivity for rating DSM-IV factors and psychosocial stressors to predict risk for violence during hospitalization. Replication studies are recommended to strengthen validity of the ROVA scale.     

Risk Assessment for Juvenile Justice: A Meta-Analysis

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.     

天津市地面沉降风险分析研究

地面沉降是城市主要地质灾害之一,天津市尤为严重。从地面沉降风险角度出发,运用AHP模糊综合评判法,对天津市地面沉降风险进行分析研究。在纵览前人研究基础上,结合自然灾害风险分析理论和天津市实际状况,建立天津市地面沉降风险评价指标体系,该指标体系由5个一级指标和18个二级指标组成。运用层次分析法确定指标相对权重,并选取5组不同权重集进行敏感度分析,以减少主观因素造成的判断误差。由于最大隶属度原则本身不足,采用加权平均法处理评判结果,得到风险综合指数,将5组风险综合指数求平均,进行最终评价。结果表明,天津市地面沉降风险水平在中等和较高之间,更偏向于较高。这与实际情况基本吻合,将该方法用于天津市地面沉降风险分析,可为防灾减灾提供科学依据。     

重大事项社会稳定风险评估的法治保障研究

重大事项社会稳定风险评估机制是从源头预防和控制社会稳定风险、维护社会稳定的重要保障,开展重大事项社会稳定风险评估是建设法治政府的必然要求。在分析影响当前社会稳定的各种因素的基础上,本文认为,完善群体性事件预警机制,建立起与重大事项社会稳定风险评估相一致的法律保障制度,是实现社会良性治理的重要途径。     

Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.