Building better crime simulations: systematic replication and the introduction of incremental complexity

Computer simulation models have changed the ways in which researchers are able to observe and study social phenomena such as crime. The ability of researchers to replicate the work of others is fundamental to a cumulative science, yet this rarely occurs in computer simulations. In this paper, we argue that, for computer simulations to be seen as a legitimate methodology in social science, and for new knowledge to be generated, serious consideration needs to be given to how simulations could or should be replicated. We develop the concept of systematic replication, a method for developing simulation experiments that move towards a generalisable inference that is directed, explicit, and incorporates complexity incrementally. Finally, we outline how the discrete parts of this process might be carried out in practice, using a simple simulation model.

Do US City Crime Rates Follow a National Trend? The Influence of Nationwide Conditions on Local Crime Patterns

This study considers the degree to which the crime rates of US cities follow a uniform national trend. A nationwide trend has consequences for theories that explain aggregate changes in crime, but how closely subnational units hold to a common time path has received almost no research attention. Using annual panel data, the current study presents analyses that attempt to measure the correspondence between city-level and national-level crime rates. The results of each analysis are consistent with a clear single pattern that operates across the nation’s major urban areas. This supports the idea that a meaningful national trend exists, and it suggests the desirability of continuing efforts to explain it.

Revisiting Incapacitation: Can We Generate New Estimates?

A substantial body of empirical research examines how the huge expansion in incarceration in the United States since the early 1970s has influenced crime. These studies merge the effects of three conceptually distinct paths by which incarceration might reduce crime: general deterrence, specific deterrence and incapacitation. This issue of the Journal focuses specifically on the incapacitation path. This Introduction reviews the individual papers and offers the editors’ judgment as to the plausibility of progress using different research strategies. It emphasizes the potential for using individual level data to take advantage of natural experiments.

The power few: experimental criminology and the reduction of harm

The promise of experimental criminology is finding ways to reduce harm from crime and injustice. The problem of experimental criminology is that so few experiments produce evidence of big effects from the interventions they test. One solution to this problem may be concentrating scarce resources for experiments on the “power few:” the small percentage of places, victims, offenders, police officers or other units in any distribution of crime or injustice which produces the greatest amount of harm. By increasing the homogeneity and base rates of the samples enrolled in each experiment, the power few hypothesis predicts increased statistical power to detect program effects. With greater investment of resources, and possibly less variant responses to greater dosages of intervention—especially interventions of support, as distinct from punishment—we may also increase our chances of finding politically acceptable interventions that will work.

IN SAFE HANDS: A Review of Mobile Phone Anti-theft Designs

Anti-theft designs relating to mobile phones are reviewed. The physical and electronic design of handsets includes visual deterrents, owner-identification, and handset tracking options. The systems design of phone networks includes the blacklisting of stolen phones. Other measures include biometric-locking of handsets, and designs that encourage ‘safe’ phone use and transportation. Characteristics that promote anti-theft designs are proposed and form the acronym ‘IN SAFE HANDS’: identifiable, neutral, seen, attached, findable, executable, hidden, automatic, necessary, detectable, and secure. The set of characteristics is presented as a heuristic device to aid designing-out crime from frequently stolen electronic goods.

Black Mist and White Collars: Economic Crime in the United States and Japan

Comparative studies of crime have persistently challenged and daunted criminology scholars. For criminologists studying Japan, interest has traditionally been focused on the country’s much-heralded low crime rate. The current study examines white-collar lawbreaking in both the United States and Japan, focusing on similarities and differences in culture, law, criminal justice system response, corporate governance, and regulation. The study concludes that if Japan’s low crime rate is an enigma to criminologists, then its ample amounts of white-collar and corporate crime appear that much more puzzling. Given that the depth of the problem of white-collar crime goes far beyond adjudicated cases, Japan’s remarkably low rate of common crime is likely eclipsed by its rate of white-collar and corporate crime. The study concludes that the different legal and cultural contexts of the “law in inaction” go far in explaining the official nonrecognition of white-collar and corporate crime in both the United States and Japan.

Drugs Prices and Systemic Violence: An Empirical Study

This study proposes an empirical analysis of the relation between the prices of illegal drugs and the use of violence to administrate the markets of illegal drugs. The study hypothesizes that the prices of illegal drugs affect the level of violent crime, since changes in profitability of the drugs’ markets affect the offenders’ expected utility of using violence to operate in these markets. An increase (or decrease) in prices would raise (or reduce) the offenders’ expected utility of making use of violence, for instance, to solve disputes over drugs, to conquer more market shares, to defend ones own market share, in short to make use of systemic violence (Goldstein, P.J. Journal of Drug Issues, 39:143–179, 1985). The study will analyze the relation between the dynamics of cocaine and heroin’s prices and systemic violence in the United States of America and in Europe over two decades. The correlational and inferential analyses do support the hypothesis for certain offenders’ profiles and certain murders’ circumstances.

Using social network analysis to target criminal networks

Using social network analysis (SNA), we propose a model for targeting criminal networks. The model we present here is a revised version of our existing model (Schwartz and Rouselle in IALEIA Journal, 18(1):18–14, 2008), which itself builds on Steve Borgatti’s SNA-based key player approach. Whereas Borgatti’s approach focuses solely on actors’ network positions, our model also incorporates the relative strength or potency of actors, as well as the strength of the relationships binding network actors.

Suggestive Eyewitness Identification Procedures and the Supreme Court’s Reliability Test in Light of Eyewitness Science: 30 Years Later

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling concerning suggestive eyewitness identification procedures (Manson v. Braithwaite, 1977, 432 U.S. 98) has not been revisited by the Court in the intervening 30+ years. Meanwhile, scientific studies of eyewitnesses have progressed and DNA exonerations show that mistaken identification is the primary cause of convictions of the innocent. We analyzed the two-inquiry logic in Manson in light of eyewitness science. Several problems are discussed. Ironically, we note that suggestive identification procedures (determined in the first inquiry) boost the eyewitnesses’ standing on three of the five criteria (used in the second inquiry) that are used to decide whether the suggestive procedures were a problem. The net effect undermines safeguards intended by the Court and destroys incentives to avoid suggestive procedures.

New Evidence on the Monetary Value of Saving a High Risk Youth

There is growing interest in crime prevention through early youth interventions; yet, the standard United States response to the crime problem, particularly among juveniles, has been to increase the use and resource allocation allotted toward punishment and incapacitation and away from prevention and treatment. At the same time, longitudinal studies of delinquency and crime have repeatedly documented a strong link between past and future behavior and have identified a small subset of offenders who commit a large share of criminal offenses. These findings suggest that if these offenders can be identified early and correctly and provided with prevention and treatment resources early in the life course, their criminal activity may be curtailed. While researchers have studied these offenders in great detail, little attention has been paid to the costs they exert on society. This paper provides estimates of the cost of crime imposed on society by high risk youth. Our approach follows and builds upon the early framework and basic methodology developed by Cohen (J Quant Criminol 14: 5–33, 1998), by using new estimates of the costs of individual crimes, ones that are more comprehensive and that significantly increased the monetary cost per crime. We also use new estimates on the underlying offending rate for high risk juvenile offenders. We estimate the present value of saving a 14-year-old high risk juvenile from a life of crime to range from $2.6 to $5.3 million. Similarly, saving a high risk youth at birth would save society between $2.6 and $4.4 million.

Crime and punishment: an expressive voting view

Incarceration rates in many countries (the US and Australia among them) have risen spectacularly over the last twenty years and are only partially explicable by increases in crime rates. Moreover, in some countries where crime rates have shown a comparable time-path, incarceration rates have not shown the same spectacular increase. The aim of this paper is to explore the politics of punishment. The claim is that the US and Australian experiences are best understood in terms of political considerations; and that this fact lends some support to the “expressive” as distinct from the “interest” approach to electoral behaviour.

A Comparison of Chinese and US College Students’ Crime and Crime Control Views

While there is a growing trend to look at criminal justice issues from an international perspective, there has been little literature examining differences in views of crime, criminals, punishment, and treatment between the citizens of the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America. Using data from 524 students at a large university in China and 484 students from a large public university in the USA this study found that, while US respondents were more likely to agree that crime was high in their country, Chinese respondents were more likely to feel that crime was the most serious social problem facing their society. Chinese respondents were more supportive of the death penalty for serious crimes but also were more supportive of rehabilitation of offenders in general. In addition, the study found similarities between students from the two countries in their views. The reasons behind the differences and similarities were explored.

Measuring corporate environmental crime rates: progress and problems

The problem of corporate crime rates has been the subject of debate, speculation and operationalization for decades, largely stemming from the complexity of measuring this type of crime. Examining corporate environmental crime poses challenges and creates opportunities for advancing the discussion of corporate crime rates, but criminologists are less familiar with environmental data. In the current paper, we review the strengths and weaknesses of existing environmental data that can be used to construct the components of an environmental crime rate. We also present a corporate environmental crime rate derived from data on violations of the Clean Water Act and describe problems with using it in real world data. Implications for theory, practice and future research are discussed.

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Population Size, Change, and Crime in U.S. Cities

The sometimes noted contradiction between cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships concerning city population size and crime rates is reexamined using more complex analytic procedures, controlling for extraneous variables, and allowing for non-monotonic relationships. Instead of a simple cross-sectional relationship between population size and crime rates, the more sophisticated analysis reveals either no association or a quadratic relationship. Similarly, instead of a simple lack of longitudinal relationship or a negative one, the more complicated analysis shows a non-monotonic pattern for three of six offenses. However, we contend that these divergent patterns for cross-sectional relative to longitudinal data are not necessarily indicative of an “anomaly.” Instead, they represent different aspects of a dynamic process in need of more extensive theorizing. Finally, the cross-sectional results showing that city size and crime rates are either not linked or when linked are in a non-monotonic pattern call into question one of the accepted relationships in criminology that have long guided thinking about crime.

Inequality, Crime and the Floating Population in China

Since the Open and Reform Policy, China has been making great progress toward modernization. A salient phenomenon accompanying economic boom is increased social inequality and crime, and these are destabilizing Chinese society. This paper shows how income and social inequality were socially, structurally and institutionally constructed during the reform period because of a continuation of the pre-reform social strata that deprived peasants of equal access to education, employment, housing, and health care opportunities. The social inequality gives rise to a huge floating population which is socially disorganized and has no attachment, commitment, or involvement in communities. Low external control and strain also led to high crime rates among the floating population.

A Developmental Approach for Measuring the Severity of Crimes

There is widespread agreement in criminology that some crimes are more severe than others, but precise definitions of crime severity and straightforward methods for measuring it have been elusive. Public perceptions of crime severity and economic estimates of crime costs to society or willingness to pay offer a variety of metrics for the public’s perceptions of severity, but they may not accurately describe severity as reflected in offender preferences. The behavior of offenders is critical for understanding developmental progressions in criminal careers, as one may assume that typically more severe offenses are not undertaken until less severe crimes have been committed. In the present paper we propose an alternative metric of crime severity, drawing on findings from developmental criminology that indicate that more severe crimes occur after less severe crimes in the criminal life course, and a method for estimating crime severity that uses the generalized Bradley–Terry model of multiple paired comparisons. We demonstrate this approach on two samples of youthful offenders: the National Youth Survey and the RAND Adolescent Outcomes Project. The results suggest that sample-specific estimates of crime severity can be derived, that these estimates provide insight into the developmental progression of crime, and that they correspond well to crime severity rankings produced by the public.