Detecting Spatial Movement of Intra-Region Crime Patterns Over Time

Many of the traditional measures of the degree to which crime patterns change over space and time have limitations. In particular most are unable to determine any change in spatial crime pattern within an areal unit. Usually studies measure the change in crime levels in contiguous areas (expressed as discrete sub-divisions of a study area), but this can become problematic due to difficulties such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). This paper describes a technique developed to allow researchers to examine intra-study region changes in crime patterns between two time periods without the need to aggregate crime counts to within-city areal boundaries. The method presented uses a random point nearest neighbor test combined with a Monte Carlo simulation. The process resolves problems of patterning and the MAUP that are common with a number of spatial displacement and pattern movement studies. This technique is demonstrated with example data from a city-wide police burglary crackdown in the Australian capital.     

Modernization and crime patterns in China

Existing research on modernization and crime patterns largely focused on the volume of crime and its variation over periods of modernization. The empirical studies predominantly used cross-national data based on Western advanced capitalist societies and developing countries. To further discover patterns of crime during the modernization process in non-Western settings, the present study took a different approach. It examined the rate of change for property and violent crimes in China; and it employed longitudinal methods to analyze the crime series. The findings extended the conclusions of modernization theories regarding general crime patterns during modernization. Theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.     

The choice of crime: An empirical analysis of juveniles' criminal choice

This article applies the theory of individual rational choice to micro data on the criminal activity of juveniles. The individual choice model is developed and applied to data on 1,171 files on property offenses adjudicated by the Family Court between 1972 and 1976.It is found that the type of crime chosen, as indicated by the charge at the time of arrest and the final charge, is influenced by sex, age, number of prior referrals to the court, ethnic extraction, and place of residence of the juvenile. As the effect of each of these individual characteristics on the probability of selecting the various crimes differs, the choice of crime exhibits dynamic features; as the individual age increases, and as the number of prior referrals to court increases, the probabilities of selecting particular crimes change. These features are examined by generating the probabilities and examining the patterns which emerge.     

Aoristic Signatures and the Spatio-Temporal Analysis of High Volume Crime Patterns

The spatial analysis of crime and the current focus on hotspots has pushed the area of crime mapping to the fore, especially in regard to high volume offenses such as vehicle theft and burglary. Hotspots also have a temporal component, yet police recorded crime databases rarely record the actual time of offense as this is seldom known. Police crime data tends, more often than not, to reflect the routine activities of the victims rather than the offense patterns of the offenders. This paper demonstrates a technique that uses police START and END crime times to generate a crime occurrence probability at any given time that can be mapped or visualized graphically. A study in the eastern suburbs of Sydney, Australia, demonstrates that crime hotspots with a geographical proximity can have distinctly different temporal patterns.     

A LIFE‐COURSE PERSPECTIVE ON SPIRITUALITY AND DESISTANCE FROM CRIME*

Spirituality is a component of many drug and alcohol treatment strategies, and faith‐based programming is also common within prison settings. Yet research on religiosity—crime linkages has often relied on general youth or adult samples or has included a short time line for gauging positive effects. Life‐course researchers focused on serious delinquents, in turn, have often emphasized other factors associated with long‐term crime patterns, such as marital attachment and job stability, or the criminality of the individual's social ties. This study draws on quantitative and qualitative data derived from a long‐term follow‐up of a sample of serious adolescent male and female offenders to explore the role of spirituality and religious participation as influences on adult patterns of criminal involvement (N= 152). The respondents were first interviewed as adolescents, in 1982, and again as adults in 1995 and 2003. Results of longitudinal analyses that take into account self‐report and incarceration histories at both time periods do not reveal a significant association between these indices of religiosity and the likelihood of evidencing a pattern of sustained desistance. Our analysis of indepth life‐history interviews conducted with most respondents over these two time periods and 41 additional interviews focused specifically on spirituality and religion are used to explore in more detail the promise and challenges associated with relying on religiosity as a catalyst for sustained behavior change.     

Explaining the UCR-NCVS Convergence: a Time Series Analysis

The study intends to explain the convergence of the UCR and NCVS data series (1973–2008). Hypothesized explanatory variables include increased police productivity, change in people’s attitudes toward crime and the police, demographic changes, changes in the measurements used in data collections, and the advancement of telecommunication tools. The time series models with relevant predictor variables are estimated to explain the convergence of the two crime data series in five different crime categories. The results show that an increase in the total number of employees in the police, changes in measurements, especially the methodological changes adopted in the victimization survey in 1992, and changing attitudes toward crime and the police affect the relationship between the two crime data series and may have helped the convergence of the two. We argue that (1) the convergence of the two crime data series is not a mere convergence of methodological inadequacies resulting from the declining quality of the victimization survey and (2) all the predictor variables only partially affect the convergence of the two crime data series. Methodological limitations of this study are also addressed.     

The impact of the wilson administration on economic crime rates

Previous research, based upon the interrupted time-series analysis of monthly data, has demonstrated that changes in the organizational structure of police departments produce short-term changes in the level of reported crime. The present study extends this literature by examining the independent effects of a change in hierarchical control (i.e., the appointment of O. W. Wilson as the new chief of the Chicago Police Department) and changes, over time, in the ecological structure of Chicago on reported rates of economic crime. The multivariate analyses indicate that the failure to take into account organizational change leads to model specification error. We conclude that longitudinal, within-jurisdictional research, based on the analysis of UCR data, must take into account changes in police bureaucracies that can affect the production of official counts of crime.     

Is Law Unbounded? Property Rights and Control of Social Groupings

This review essay follows up on a suggested model for resolving problems of neighborhood externalities and exclusionary associational patterns in metropolitan areas. The model is based on a property rights regime of “alienable entitlements,” as articulated by Lee Anne Fennell in The Unbounded Home (2009). The essay frames this model as promoting a groundbreaking approach to the fundamental quandary over the role of law as a tool for broad-based social change and asks if legal rules can fully absorb the multiple types of societal effects that influence the nature of contemporary homeownership. It assesses the normative desirability and practical feasibility of controlling social exclusion through property rights.     

对未成年人犯罪寓罚于教的理论探讨

当前我国正处于社会转型期,存在多种诱发未成年人违法犯罪的不良因素,而未成年人正处于身体和智力的发展时期,他们什么都想知道,什么都想学,什么都想亲自去做,但由于他们的社会知识和生活经验所限,他们的认识能力具有很大的片面性和表面性,容易养成不良品质和恶习劣迹,最终导致违法犯罪。对于未成年人犯罪问题,考虑到对他们未来的发展,为了让他们既能改过自新又能健康成长,在对他们进行惩罚的同时,更重要的是对他们进行教育、启发、感化以教育为主,处罚为辅的政策,这就是所谓寓罚于教。在管理过程中始终贯穿教育、感化、挽救的精神,从而达到治其心、治其本的目的。     

Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling for Analysing Local Patterns of Crime Over Time at the Small-Area Level

Objectives

Explore Bayesian spatio-temporal methods to analyse local patterns of crime change over time at the small-area level through an application to property crime data in the Regional Municipality of York, Ontario, Canada.

Methods

This research represents the first application of Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling to crime trend analysis at a large map scale. The Bayesian model, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using WinBUGS, stabilized risk estimates in small (census dissemination) areas and controlled for spatial autocorrelation (through spatial random effects modeling), deprivation, and scarce data. It estimated (1) (linear) mean trend; (2) area-specific differential trends; and (3) (posterior) probabilities of area-specific differential trends differing from zero (i.e. away from the mean trend) for revealing locations of hot and cold spots.

Results

Property crime exhibited a declining mean trend across the study region from 2006 to 2007. Variation of area-specific trends was statistically significant, which was apparent from the map of (95 % credible interval) differential trends. Hot spots in the north and south west, and cold spots in the middle and east of the region were identified.

Conclusions

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis contributes to a detailed understanding of small-area crime trends and risks. It estimates crime trend for each area as well as an overall mean trend. The new approach of identifying hot/cold spots through analysing and mapping probabilities of area-specific crime trends differing from the mean trend highlights specific locations where crime situation is deteriorating or improving over time. Future research should analyse trends over three or more periods (allowing for non-linear time trends) and associated (changing) local risk factors.     

Offending,drug abuse and life chances—a longitudinal study of a Stockholm birth cohort

There are many factors, both empirical and theoretical, which indicate that drug abuse can play an important role in explaining the links between criminality and life chances when viewed from a life-course perspective. In this article, we examine the links between crime and drug abuse and social inclusion and exclusion in adult life, and look at whether there are gender-specific patterns in these regards. The Stockholm Birth Cohort database allows us to follow a birth cohort born in 1953 to age 56. The results show that drug abuse is central both to processes of continuity in and desistance from crime and to life chances in adulthood. For the adult outcomes that relate to work and health, we also note a tendency towards polarization; the size of both the relative and the absolute differences between the comparison group and offenders with registered drug abuse increases over time. The same general pattern can be seen for males and females.     

Towards a Political Economy of Reform, Regulation and Corporate Crime

This paper focuses on the passage and enforcement of laws regulating the corporate sector, specifying patterns which seem to emerge from this literature in the major English speaking democracies.
The creation of regulatory laws, the typical resistance by the industry and the state, and the crucial role of crises in the successful passage of laws are examined first. The patterns which law enforcement follows, and the key role of the regulatory agency in shaping these, are delineated next. The theoretical implications of these empirically based generalizations are then set out.
The author argues that neither the pluralist nor the mainstream Marxist analyses adequately explain the very real progress that has occurred over the past 400 years in containing corporate crime, because it has happened largely in spite of rather than because of laws and regulatory activity. Real reform resulted because ongoing struggles forged a change at the ideological level, and this in turn led to improvements at the level of production. By raising the price of legitimacy for corporations in a particular nation-state, prolaterian groups and their allies can create the conditions for change. Law and regulatory agencies have been of secondary importance, it is argued, in the struggle to restrain the predatory behavior of the corporate sector.     

Identities Through Time: An Exploration of Identity Change as a Cause of Desistance

Research examining desistance from crime (the process of decreasing offending over time) has increased over the last 20?years. However, many explanations of desistance remain somewhat exploratory. One theory in particular that is becoming more prominent includes the idea that desistance is caused by a change in identity (e.g. from deviant to pro-social). While qualitative support has been found for this proposition, prospective quantitative studies have not been conducted on this theory. This study addresses that gap by examining how pro-social identities change over time and whether these changes correspond to desistance from crime. The results of growth curve models indicate that pro-social identity increases over time and is a robust predictor of criminal behavior over the life course. These results offer support to identity theories of desistance and also provide important information for correctional programming.     

Prosecutors and the Definition of the Crime Problem in Italy: Balancing the Impact of Moral Panics

In western liberal countries late modernity brings in its wake certain distinctive patterns of crime control. Common sense, experience and stigmatization of crime and deviance seem to be the basis on which crime control policies are debated and eventually implemented. Insecurity and fear of crime are the enemies for an effective legal system. What is left for specialist crime control agencies? The Italian case can demonstrate that legal actors, in particular prosecutors, can still effectively participate in the developing of the criminal justice discourse. I will argue that prosecutorial practice can possibly provide the information to understand the socio-legal conditions that shape prosecutors’ role during the pre-trial phase. This role is far from being merely reactive to certain social, historical and cultural developments. Prosecutors’ reactions appear to be aimed at restating their role of guardians of the law. While they react to external influences they try not to adapt to them. In this way they partially mediate the impact of moral panics.     

Women in Crime and Justice

ABSTRACT

Drawing upon feminist research on women in crime and justice, this study examines patterns of female crime in Israel over four decades and the criminal justice response to female offenders over two decades. The data show that crime patterns of Israeli women and the criminal justice response to their transgressions show remarkable resemblance to those discerned in other western countries. The article concludes that feminist insights and explanatory mechanisms suggested in other western countries are congruent with findings about women in crime and justice in Israel.     

TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AT PLACES: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF STREET SEGMENTS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE*

Studies of crime at micro places have generally relied on cross‐sectional data and reported the distributions of crime statistics over short periods of time. In this paper we use official crime data to examine the distribution of crime at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14‐year period. We go beyond prior research in two ways. First, we view crime trends at places over a much longer period than other studies that have examined micro places. Second, we use group‐based trajectory analysis to uncover distinctive developmental trends in our data. Our findings support the view that micro places generally have stable concentrations of crime events over time. However, we also find that a relatively small proportion of places belong to groups with steeply rising or declining crime trajectories and that these places are primarily responsible for overall city trends in crime. These findings are particularly important given the more general decline in crime rates observed in Seattle and many other American cities in the 1990s. Our study suggests that the crime drop can be understood not as a general process that occurred across the city landscape but one that was generated in a relatively small group of micro places with strong declining crime trajectories over time.     

Measuring the Distribution of Crime and Its Concentration

Objectives

Generally speaking, crime is, fortunately, a rare event. As far as modelling is concerned, this sparsity of data means that traditional measures to quantify concentration are not appropriate when applied to crime suffered by a population. Our objective is to develop a new technique to measure the concentration of crime which takes into account its low frequency of occurrence and its high degree of concentration in such a way that this measure is comparable over time and over different populations.

Methods

This article derives an estimate of the distribution of crime suffered by a population based on a mixture model and then evaluates a new and standardised measurement of the concentration of the rates of suffering a crime based on that distribution.

Results

The new measure is successfully applied to the incidence of robbery of a person in Mexico and is able to correctly quantify the concentration crime in such a way that is comparable between different regions and can be tracked over different time periods.

Conclusions

The risk of suffering a crime is not uniformly distributed across a population. There are certain groups which are statistically immune to suffering crime but there are also groups which suffer chronic victimisation. This measure improves our understanding of how patterns of crime can be quantified allowing us to determine if a prevention policy results in a crime reduction rather than target displacement. The method may have applications beyond crime science.

     

DO RETURNING PAROLEES AFFECT NEIGHBORHOOD CRIME? A CASE STUDY OF SACRAMENTO*

This study used a unique data set that combines information on parolees in the city of Sacramento, CA, over the 2003–2006 time period with information on monthly crime rates in Sacramento census tracts over this same period, providing us a fine‐grained temporal and geographical view of the relationship between the change in parolees in a census tract and the change in the crime rate. We find that an increase in the number of tract parolees in a month results in an increase in the crime rate. We find that more violent parolees have a particularly strong effect on murder and burglary rates. We find that the social capital of the neighborhood can moderate the effect of parolees on crime rates: Neighborhoods with greater residential stability dampen the effect of parolees on robbery rates, whereas neighborhoods with greater numbers of voluntary organizations dampen the effect of parolees on burglary and aggravated assault rates. Furthermore, this protective effect of voluntary organizations seems strongest for those organizations that provide services for youth. We show that the effect of single‐parent households in a neighborhood is moderated by the return of parolees, which suggests that these reunited families may increase the social control ability of the neighborhood.     

Predicting Initiator and Near Repeat Events in Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Residential Burglary and Motor Vehicle Theft

Near repeat analysis has been increasingly used to measure the spatiotemporal clustering of crime in contemporary criminology. Despite its predictive capacity, the typically short time frame of near repeat crime patterns can negatively affect the crime prevention utility of near repeat analysis. Thus, recent research has argued for a greater understanding of the types of places that are most likely to generate near repeat crime patterns. The current study contributes to the literature through a spatiotemporal analysis of residential burglary and motor vehicle theft in Indianapolis, IN. Near Repeat analyses were followed by multinomial logistic regression models to identify covariates related to the occurrence of initiator (the first event in a near repeat chain) and near repeat (the subsequent event in a near repeat chain) events. The overall findings provide additional support for the argument that neighborhood context can influence the formation and context of spatiotemporal crime patterns.     

Social disorganization theory and the college campus

Researchers and the mass media have focused increasing attention on campus crime in light of a few high-profile incidents. While rare, these incidents are important because college students are less likely to attend, spend time on, or participate in social activities on high crime campuses. The current study contributed to research on campus crime by exploring the generalizability of the updated social disorganization model to campus communities by using data collected from Peterson's Guide to Four-Year Colleges and the Uniform Crime Report for the year 2000. While social structural features of campus populations are clearly associated with rates of campus property crime, the role of social organization is less certain. These results have implications for future research and crime prevention planning on college campuses.