Interest groups and state Medicaid drug programs

A simultaneous equations model is estimated to analyze the interaction between state Medicaid pharmaceutical drug reimbursement rates, drug recipients per capita, and expenditures per drug recipient. Interest groups are shown to have a strong positive impact on pharmacy reimbursement rates, which, in turn, have an impact on pharmacy participation rates and drug utilization and expenditure patterns. Finally, a strong inverse relationship exists between expenditures per recipient and program size. The results verify the existence of substantial variation in state Medicaid programs and point to potentially growing disparities as a result of current policies.     

THE RELATIONSHIP OF POLICE AND CRIME

This study develops a model to measure the impact of police expenditure on crime rates across cities. It specifically allows for the two-way relationship between police and crime. Other things being equal, cities with more police per capita should have lower crime rates, if police reduce crime. Simultaneously, the higher the crime rate, the greater the public demand for police. In its final formations, the model contains two identifiable equations with two endogenous variables, police expenditure per capita and the crime rate. Following a discussion of the reliability of crime statistics, the model is estimated by two-stage least squares, using FBI crime data for 119 cities in 1960. These two-stage results are compared with ordinary least-square estimation results and are found to be clearly superior.     

Credible plea bargaining

This paper demonstrates that the role of plea bargaining as a screening device depends neither on the commitment to trial nor on the commitment to some prosecutorial expenditures. In a situation where a prosecutor cannot commit to trial nor spends resources to obtain more evidence, I find a semi-separating equilibrium in which the prosecutor makes an offer that can be accepted only by the guilty defendant with some positive probability, and then, if the offer is rejected, he proceeds to trial, based on his updated belief. I also consider the prosecutor’s decision to choose the amount of (per capita) prosecutorial expenditures both in the commitment case and in the noncommitment case, and argue that an increase in the per capita expenditure may reduce the gross expenditures on prosecution by lowering the chance of trial.     

Has PPS increased Medicare expenditures on physicians?

We use data from 1983 and 1985 on the volume of Medicare physician services to analyze whether Medicare's Prospective Payment System (PPS), which resulted in a significant decline in hospital spending, led to a partially offsetting increase in real expenditures for physician services. We also analyze the effect of increases in assignment rates, increasing incomes of the elderly, and other factors on real expenditures during this period. Our main conclusion is that PPS has at most a small positive effect on real physician expenditures. Because people spent less time in the hospital, Medicare physician spending declined; but because of incentives to shift radiology and other services out of the hospital, some of this decline was offset. We also conclude that the sharp increase in Medicare assignment rates over this period, along with the rising incomes of the elderly during this period, contributed to the observed growth.     

Inclusive growth,human capital development and natural resource rent in SSA

This paper seeks to achieve two objectives. First, we argued for the increase in government expenditure on education and health to examine the possibility of achieving inclusive growth. Second, financing gap model was employed to estimate the potential growth in GDP per capita that is accruable to the economy if government use natural resource rent to finance increase in expenditure of education and health. Relying on dataset for 18 SSA countries, among the results obtained showed that both government expenditures are found to be significant for explaining growth in SSA. However, augmenting health expenditure with natural resource appears to be more significant for making growth process inclusive. Also, the results of the simulation exercise indicate that increasing government expenditure on health would increase GDP per capita growth by over 3.1 %. The policy implication of this is drawn based upon the results obtained.     

Police patrol and the deterrence of crime

A nonrecursive model of the deterrent effect of police presence was formulated and tested for 26 cities. Victimization data were employed as measures of crime, unpublished FBI data on the number of police patrol units as the measure of levels of police presence, and data for 11 exogenous variables were derived from FBI and census reports. It was found that per capita, police are a positive function of rates of violent crime and that clearance rates are a positive function of police presence. However, some offenses that have traditionally been thought to be deterrable are not inversely related to clearance rates. The equations were re-estimated using official measures of crime and found to be more consistent with the deterrent hypothesis. It is suggested that official data may generate a spurious correlation. Finally, caution is suggested in consideration of alternative forms of police presence.     

Economic freedom and economic growth in India: What is the empirical relationship?

The recent moves of the Indian economy towards further opening up of the economy with less government control has brought about changes in its policy structure. The objective of this study is to test the hypothesis that greater economic freedom leads to higher levels of economic growth in a federal system like India where business regulations, taxation, and government spending differ widely across states. Pooled linear regression model is applied to categorical data containing economic freedom and its three components as independent variables, and growth rates of income per capita and gross state domestic product as dependent variable, for a panel of twenty states for three time periods, 2004/2005, 2006/2007 and 2009/2010. While examining this relationship, the variables like initial income per capita, initial literacy rate, sectoral composition, and inflation rate are taken as control. The results tend to establish the fundamental effects of economic freedom in fostering economic growth. Three individual dimensions of economic freedom namely size of government, strong rule of law, and flexible regulations governing credit, labour, and product markets are likely to exert beneficial impacts on income growth. Initial income per capita exerts a positive impact, thus proving the prevalence of regional divergence on this front. High human capital, greater share of the services and inflation exert direct impact on growth.     

The relationship of criminal victimization,police per capita and population density in twenty-six cities

This study examines the relationship between indicators of environmental control and criminal victimization rates in twenty-six large American central cities. Using a typology of criminal victimization that classifies crimes as property crimes with contact, property crimes without contact, and nonproperty assaultive crimes, it is found that both the number of police per capita and population density are negatively related to property crimes without contact and nonproperty assaultive crimes. However, the number of police per capita (controlling for population density) is not related to property crimes with contact, while population density (controlling for number of police per capita) is positively related to these crimes. Possible explanations for these patterns of relationships are discussed.     

Government expenditure on public order and safety,economic growth and private investment: Empirical evidence from the United States

The analysis begins by using annual data for the US from 1959 to 2003 to examine the macroeconomic relationship between government expenditure on public order and safety, output and investment. In practice, total spending on public order and safety is divided up into four categories (police force, fire service, law courts and prison service) so in the second part of the analysis we test for Granger causality between output, investment and each category of spending. But the division of aggregate spending may give rise to trade-offs/complementarities so in the final part of the analysis Granger causality tests are used to investigate this issue. Among other things, the results suggest that changes in output Granger cause changes in total spending on public order and safety. In particular, when total spending is disaggregated the findings suggest that changes in output Granger cause changes in spending on the police force and the law courts.     

Candidates,Campaigns, or Partisan Conditions? Reevaluating Strategic‐Politicians Theory

According to strategic‐politicians theory, political elites help ensure electoral responsiveness even when the mass public is deficient. Testing this theory requires measuring the effects of candidate experience and campaign spending, but one must confront endogeneity problems, because the theory requires potential candidates and campaign contributors to be responsive to district partisan conditions and national partisan tides. By applying an instrumental‐variable method to control for selection bias, we found that challenger experience only matters indirectly, through its effect on campaign expenditures, but partisan context matters both directly and indirectly. We theorize that challenger experience is best understood as an informational shortcut: it signals incumbent vulnerability to potential campaign contributors.     

How Much Time Should the Police Spend at Crime Hot Spots? Answers from a Police Agency Directed Randomized Field Trial in Sacramento,California

Hot spots policing has been shown to be an effective strategy for reducing crime across a number of rigorous evaluations, but despite this strong body of research, there still exist gaps in our knowledge of how officers can best respond to hot spots. We report on a randomized experiment in Sacramento, California that begins to address these gaps by testing the recommendation from prior research that police officers randomly rotate between hot spots, spending about 15?min patrolling in each. Our results suggest significant overall declines in both calls for service and crime incidents in the treatment hot spots relative to the controls. Additionally, the study was carried out primarily by the Sacramento Police Department without any outside funding. In an era of limited economic resources for policing, this experiment suggests a model by which police agencies can take ownership of science and oversee the implementation and evaluation of evidence-based interventions.     

The politics of discretionary Medicaid spending, 1980-1993

Why do some states choose to spend more than four times as much as others to provide health care to the disadvantaged? Political scientists who have traditionally explored this question by analyzing trends in overall Medicaid expenditures lumped states' discretionary spending in with other money that states are mandated to spend. Analyses of total expenditures found that socioeconomic factors drove spending but that party control of state legislatures made no difference in health policy making. By isolating discretionary state Medicaid expenditures from total spending figures, I reexamine the influences of political as well as economic and demographic factors. The often-doubted importance of party control becomes clear. This study investigates spending patterns in the discretionary portions of state Medicaid programs in forty-six states from 1980 to 1993 and analyzes both incremental program changes and absolute differences in state spending. To discover how greatly the researcher's choice of dependent variables can affect results, optional spending is separated from total spending levels and the variation is modeled in both. Focusing not on the spending that the federal government requires of state officials but on the policies that state officials actually choose allows a balanced exploration of both political and economic effects on welfare expenditures. This research also provides new insights about which forces will shape policy decisions if more and more control of the public health care system is devolved to the states.     

Managing crime through quality education: A model of justice

The study examines the role of quality education in access to justice, using a panel data of 21 diversified countries for the period of 1990–2015. The findings show that there is a positive relationship between the presence of scientific and technical journals (STJ) articles and crime rates. The R&D expenditures does not substantially reduce crime rate while per capita income, trademark applications, and technical cooperation grants significantly reduce crime rates across countries. The panel fixed effect (FE) model confirmed the inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income (GDPpc) and crime rate in the presence of STJ, while this result is changed in the case of GMM estimator. The results of panel causality confirmed the unidirectional causality running from crime rate to STJ and R&D expenditures, while there is bidirectional causality between i) GDPpc and technical cooperation grants, and between ii) energy efficiency and refugee population by country. The variance decomposition analysis (VDA) shows that R&D expenditures have a greater share to influence crime rate, while technical cooperation grants will affect STJ for the next 10 years time. This finding bolsters the conversation on the relationship between education and a reduction in crime rates.     

Reforming campaign finance in the nineties: a case study of Spain

This paper analyzes the reforms of the Spanish electoral finance regulatory system during the nineties. We present a number of indexes to measure the impact of the reforms on parties and campaign spending. We also suggest a game theoretical model to explain why the two main parties agreed to support the legal changes in the nineties. A principal outcome of the reforms was to establish an effective limit to campaign expenses. In our view this would have not been feasible in the late seventies or eighties. Then the parties were trapped in a prisoner’s dilemma in which each party had to spend more in order to prevent other parties from gaining electoral advantage. But in the nineties the main parties, ridden with problems of soaring electoral debts and disgruntled voters, used the reform of political finance as a coordination device to achieve a Pareto efficient equilibrium.     

Differences in health care spending across countries: statistical evidence

The empirical evidence available for OECD countries suggests that economic factors play a major role and that demographic factors play a minor role in explaining differences in health care spending across countries. When countries are grouped on the basis of their health care systems, some significant cross-country differences result: countries with higher transfer rates (a larger share of collective financing) are not generally characterized by higher health care expenditures, and conversely, countries with a larger share of private financing (including higher coinsurance rates) do not have lower expenditures. Rather, the opposite holds true. Similar conclusions apply to the share of public versus private production of health goods. Furthermore, the results do not support the claims of those critics of universal public insurance systems who consider the expansion of the coverage to be a major source of expenditure growth. These findings cast serious doubt on the claim that cost containment can be achieved via market reforms that rely heavily on direct consumer payments and cost sharing as instruments of financing. A comparative analysis of the historic record of the United States, Canada, and the Federal Republic of Germany generally supports these conclusions; it also suggests that a greater degree of public penetration offers a better chance for control of health spending, particularly in periods of austerity. There is a strong presumption that health care systems relying on some overall control of spending generally are more cost-effective than those relying more on decentralized mechanisms of control. Services are more equitably distributed in relation to health and payment for health services is far more progressive in the former type of system.     

Liberal versus conservative public policies on crime: What was the comparative track record during the 1990s?

The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of social control and social support policies associated with conservative and liberal political ideologies with respect to violent crime in large U.S. cities during the 1990s. Eighty-five cities with populations of 150,000+ were included in the analysis; these cities accounted for fifty-two million urban area residents of the U.S. The use of the two-way, fixed-effect panel data method of statistical analysis enabled the authors to assess the relationship between change in local government expenditures for police and court services (social control) and expenditures on community development and park/recreation (support policy) and corresponding changes in crime rates documented within these cities. The findings indicated that expenditure on both police services and community development initiatives had significantly suppressive effects on crime in these cities during the period of the 1990s. It appeared that both conservative and liberal policies had their merits as effective countermeasures to crime.     

The Impact of Police Strength and Arrest Productivity on Fear of Crime and Subjective Assessments of the Police

We explore the effect of police strength and arrest productivity on citizens’ fear of crime and perceived risk of victimization, as well as their subjective perceptions of the police including their confidence in the police and ratings of police response time. Police strength is measured as the rate of officers per 1,000 and productivity is calculated as the average number of arrests per officer; we also controlled for the crime rate using crimes reported to the police. We use nationally representative survey data (n?=?1,005) and conduct a supplemental analysis of data drawn from a representative sample of urban counties (n?=?1,500). Police force size and productivity have limited and inconsistent effects on fear of crime, perceived risk, and ratings of response time and no apparent effects on confidence in the police. We also find a modest yet statistically significant negative effect of police confidence on fear of crime. Our findings indicate that it is questionable whether adding more police will reduce fear or perceived risk of victimization to any measurable degree. Consequently, we suggest that rather than hiring binges and increased arrests, the focus should be instead on making positive contacts with citizens.     

IN SEARCH OF A LINKAGE

Previous research has produced conflicting findings concerning the relationship between police evaluation by citizens and unreported crime rate. Data for thirteen large American cities indicate a weak positive relationship between the two variables. Strong negative relationships are evident between unreported crime rate and variables measuring police systems activities and demographic characteristics. Cities with the highest levels of police expenditures and manpower have the lowest levels of unreported crime, as do cities with high percentages of nonwhites and dense populations. Further analysis reveals that controlling for percentage of nonwhites and police manpower severely attenuates the original correlation between unreported crime rate and police evaluation. We conclude that future research should endeavor to explain the linkage between police systems activities and unreported crime.     

Methods for developing relative need criteria to accompany a health care capital expenditure limit

In recent years capital spending in the health care industry has escalated tremendously, and most forecasters agree that needs will increase at an even faster rate throughout the 1990s. As a result of this trend, there is a dire need to develop effective and equitable controls on capital spending in health care. One of the capital payment options under consideration is the establishment of a lid on capital expenditures and the concomitant allocation of capital to health care providers whose applications are the most meritorious. The purpose of this article is to present some ideas and methods for the development of a relative need system to accompany a capital expenditure limit and to supplement and expand the absolute need determinations of the typical CON process.     

COPS GRANTS AND CRIME REVISITED*

Using 6 years of panel data, Zhao, Scheider, and Thurman (2002) found that funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), reduced property and violent crime in large U.S. cities. We merged their COPS data with 11 years of panel data from a sample of 189 large cities, such that the period before the COPS program was covered. We also controlled for pre‐existing effects on crime of police spending. Finally, we performed various robustness checks and explored state‐specific effects of COPS spending. Our findings suggest that COPS spending had little to no effect on crime.