论西方国家对人民币汇率的指控在法律上的不足

美国制造商协会在人民币汇率问题上对中国发难。2002 年起,健全美元联盟、公平货币联盟,2005年美国又通过《中国货币法案》宣称,第一、目前中国政府操纵人民币汇率,使得人民币汇率较购买力平价严重低估,阻碍了美对华出口,造成美中上千亿美元的贸易逆差,违反国际货币基金组织(IMF)的相     

论IMF下的汇率义务与我国人民币汇率制度和汇率政策的合法性

<国际货币基金细织协定>在确认会员国具有选择汇兑安排的自由的同时,也要求会员国避免操纵汇率和国际货币制度以获得不正当的竞争优势.对照<国际货币基金细织协定>及2007年<会员国政策双边监督>决定的规定,目前我国的人民币汇率政策不是是否应该调整的问题,而是应当如何调整的问题;从法律上说,我国需要调整的是人民币汇率的政策而不是人民币汇率制度.     

结构比总量更重要

根据世界多家知名机构的预测,如果以汇率简单换算,中美之间的经济规模正在缩小,中国在近几年可能会超越美国成为全球最大经济体,比此前预计的2020年前后的时间点提前了几年。如果按照购买力平价计算,中美之间的经济规模差距可能更小。     

我国外汇政策稳定物价的效果分析

长期以来,我国执行"半开半闭"的外汇政策。这意味着,汇率等外汇政策对国内物价的作用机理和作用效果在我国的表现将明显区别于任何开放经济体。研究发现,在影响国内物价的稳定性方面,汇率政策和外汇储备政策存在相互干扰;在影响国内物价稳定性方面,外汇储备政策的影响程度远高于汇率政策,且影响时间长于汇率政策;我国外汇储备的增加在较大程度上冲抵了人民币升值对国内物价的作用效果;过高的外汇储备甚至会扭转人民币升值对国内物价的作用方向。研究结果表明,人民币升值无助于降低国内物价,因而应通过改变长期以来单纯追求外汇储备增长的政策,有效降低现有的外汇储备政策对国内物价稳定性带来的负面冲击。     

评美国对人民币汇率问题可能采取的法律行动——兼及我国的因应之策

金融危机后,中美人民币汇率纠纷问题不仅重浮水面,而且愈演愈烈。特别是2010年以来,美国上层,无论是国会议员,还是政府要员和总统都纷纷对我国当前的人民币汇率政策大加指责,并以要对人民币采取各种法律行动和制裁措施相要挟。然而,在既有的国内法和国际法框架内,无论是单边主义,还是多边主义,美国施压我国人民币汇率的各种可能法律行动均缺乏其单方所宣称的报复效果和胜算的把握,有的甚至还存在合法性不足与欠缺等问题。因此,我国不应为其喧嚣的谜像所困,而应与之展开积极协商,据法力争,并渐进可控地推进人民币汇率改革,从而更好地应对美方的法律挑战和袪除人民币汇率的操纵之嫌,维护自身的合法权益。     

人民币汇率争端的法律分析

人民币汇率问题成为近年来国际社会关注焦点,特别是美国参众两院先后通过关于汇率改革法案,不断质疑人民币汇率政策。汇率主权是国家货币主权的应有之义,主权国家有权决定并且改变本国的货币价值,不受其他国家干涉。一些国家对人民币汇率问题的指控,如汇率操纵、汇率偏差、或者是构成"出口补贴",都可以从法理上看到漏洞。根据国际货币基金组织和世界贸易组织的相关规则不足以判定人民币汇率违反国际义务。中国政府应该在坚持货币主权原则的基础上,通过灵活的法律手段解决人民币汇率争端,促进人民币汇率市场化改革,寻求国际合作以推进人民币国际化进程。     

IMF汇率监督制度的新发展及其对策

2007年IMF通过了《对会员国政策双边监督的决议》,对双边汇率监督制度作出了30年来的首次重大修改:引入"外部稳定"概念并将其作为整个决议的统领原则;明确"汇率操纵"的含义;修改IMF需要审查和商讨的情形。IMF对汇率监督制度的修改虽然增加了IMF和其他会员国在人民币汇率义务问题上的话语权,对人民币汇率义务产生了一定的影响,但我国不应盲目悲观,而应积极寻求对策。     

美国对人民币汇率偏差指控法律依据之明辨——评美国《2011年货币汇率监督改革法案》

代表美国对人民币汇率新一轮进攻狂潮的《2011年货币汇率监督改革法案》舍弃汇率操纵,而倚重汇率偏差,并将汇率偏差等同于出口补贴或倾销。但是,在现有国际法律制度中,汇率事项由《国际货币基金组织协定》及其授权的国际货币基金组织辖制,除复汇率之外的汇率事项并不属世界贸易组织规则调整的范畴。因此,衡量汇率偏差合法与否应依据《国际货币基金组织协定》的相关规定。然而《国际货币基金组织协定》并没有涉及汇率偏差的规定,2007年国际货币基金组织通过的《对会员国政策双边监督的决议》虽然对汇率偏差有所规定,但不具有法律约束力,因此,美国对人民币的汇率偏差指控实际上是缺乏法律依据的。美国将汇率偏差等同于出口补贴或倾销的主张,也因汇率偏差指控不能获得国际法律制度的支持而尽失根基,实际上是让中国遵守超越国际规则的美国国内法。     

人民币汇率是否授予中国出口商以利益

近来以美国为代表的西方对人民币汇率的一项主要指责是所谓人民币汇率低估构成中国出口产品的出口补贴,并以提交国际或国内解决相威胁。但是,对WTO《反补贴协定》衡量利益授予的指导原则及其相关诠释进行研究表明,人民币现行汇率构成衡量人民币币值的恰当基准,用一种推断的人民币汇率来确定中国产品存在出口补贴是不妥的和行不通的,且用现有币值决定理论也难以确定一个人民币币值的衡量基准。美国这些举动胜算不大,但我国应进行跟踪研究,做好充分准备。     

事件

中国实行汇率浮动制中国人民银行7月21日发布公告称,为建立和完善我国社会主义市场经济体制,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的基础性作用,建立健全以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率制度,经国务院批准.自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,形成更富弹性的人民币汇率机制。公告还称,中国人民银行将根据市场发育状况和经济金融形势,适时调整汇率浮动区间。同时,中国人民银行负责根据国内外经济金融形势,以市场供求为基础,参考篮子货币汇率变动,对人民币汇率进行管理和调节,维护人民币汇率的正常浮动,保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定。     

Symmetry,proportionality and productivity bias hypothesis: evidence from panel-VAR models

By imposing symmetry and proportionality conditions and using the asymptotic theory of panel-VAR models, this study examines the behavior of real exchange rates and productivity bias hypothesis for New Zealand vis-a-vis her major trading partners and the proposed free trade area. The evidence clearly rejects the strong version of the PPP hypothesis but the weak version of the PPP hypothesis receives some support. The findings also indicate that productivity differentials among countries are one of the major sources that contribute to the deviation of the PPP-based exchange rate from the equilibrium rate. Policy implications for the proposed free trade agreement are offered.     

Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies

This paper uses cointegration analysis on monthly data over April 1994-December 2000 to test the relevance theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for two advanced transition economies (Poland and the Czech Republic) and one lagging transition economy (Romania). PPP is not rejected between the lagging reformer and developed market economies, but is rejected between the advanced reformers and the developed economies. However, PPP is not rejected between the two advanced transition economies, though it is rejected between the lagging and advanced transition economies. The evolution of the real exchange rates over 1994-2000 suggest that a significant explanation for these findings is the central role of the exchange rate in the disinflation strategies of Poland and the Czech Republic in the early part of this period, in contrast to the managed float followed by Romania throughout the period.     

Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity for India using threshold cointegration and nonlinear unit root test

This study examines the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis in case of India for her five major trading partners over the period of 1991M₁–2009M₂. The study used the DF-GLS unit root test and threshold autoregressive (TAR) model as well as momentum-TAR (M-TAR) models for empirical analysis. However, we relied on TAR and MTAR models based cointegration tests to draw conclusions because of their superiority to traditional cointegration techniques as these models have limit cycles, amplitude dependent frequencies, and jump phenomena. These models are capable of producing asymmetric limit cycles and are suitable for time series data. Our empirical exercise reveals that PPP hypothesis does not exist for all major trading partners in case of India. This reveals that intermediate goods face high barriers to trade in this sampled countries. This supports the argument that Indian government has not been able to strike out the proper balance between flexibility and stability between real bilateral exchange rates and thus unable to maintaining confidence in the domestic currency that has been evident from the recent fall of rupee in relation to the US dollar.     

论公私合作伙伴关系在我国的实践及其法律框架构建

自1992年在英国正式问世以来,公私合作伙伴关系(PPP)已成为许多国家政府实现经济目标及提升公共服务水平的核心理念和措施之一。尽管PPP在中国实践中遭遇到某些制度性困惑,但其在中国的发展正当其时,前景广阔,是中国公用事业领域改革必选的制度安排之一。PPP法律框架的建立必须遵守透明、公正和长期承诺的原则。     

Is SADC an optimal currency area? Evidence from the generalized purchasing power parity test

In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from the view point of the generalized purchasing power parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique. The findings from this study confirm that GPPP holds among SADC member countries included in this study on account of cointegration and stationarity in real exchange rate series. South African rand normalized long run beta coefficients of all the real exchange rates are below one except in the case of the Mauritian rupee and all bear negative signs except in the case of the Angolan New Kwanza and Mauritian rupee. This is evidence that supports monetary union in the region except for Angola and Mauritius. Moreover, the panel cointegration tests also confirm the cointegration among real exchange rate series of SADC countries. However, the absolute magnitudes of the short run adjustment coefficients of SADC countries’ real exchange rates are low and bear positive signs in some cases. This finding implies that the observed slow speed of adjustment for (log) real exchange rate of SADC member states might constrain the effectiveness of stabilization policies in the wake of external shocks, rendering SADC countries vulnerable to macroeconomic instability in the region. This result has important policy implications for the proposed monetary union in SADC.     

国际法框架下的人民币汇率制度选择

近年来,人民币汇率及汇率制度选择问题成为国际经济中的持续热点问题之一。随着入世过渡期的结束,中国经济已经日益融入世界经济体系,人民币汇率及汇率制度问题已经成为中国经济发展中必须长期面对的常态性问题。对于这个问题的研究,不应仅限于以往研究中的币值低估与否,是否违反相关国际公约等方面的单一研究模式,而需要在相关国际法框架下,从经济、政治及国际法等多角度加以综合研究,以制定相应的长期应对策略,并在此基础上通过对国内法上相关制度的完善保证中国经济的长期平稳发展。     

Unification of Dual Foreign Exchange Markets

In this paper I investigate the impact of overnight floating of the official rate and easing foreign exchange restrictions on post-unification domestic inflation rate. After analysing the behaviour of an economy under dual foreign exchange markets, an official market with a crawling foreign exchange rate and a free illegal parallel market. The paper also shows that maintaining a unified free exchange rate depends on the degree of foreign exchange restrictions under dual foreign exchange system and on the level of the official reserve that prompts foreign exchange liberalisation policy.     

An elasticity approach to the analysis of Romanian foreign trade policy during the years of transition

This paper focuses on the effect of exchange rate variations on the economic evolution of a country in transition, facing inflation, output decrease and negative external shocks; the particular case of Romania is considered. The theoretical part is linked to the Fleming-Mundell model for an open economy, but additional assumptions of price mobility and capital immobility are introduced. The usual interest rate versus output graphic framework is switched from one to another, which plots the exchange rate (or real exchange rate) versus output; the author considers that such a representation fits the behavior of an economy in transition towards a market-based system better. A main role, according to this interpretation, is played by the exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, which influence the images of the equilibria on the goods market and the balance of payment (the IS and BOP curves' slopes). Finally, an empirical analysis is made, as an example, on the Romanian energy imports data series; the attempts to calculate the exchange rate elasticity may be considered as reliable only in the short term. In order to estimate the global exchange rate elasticities of imports and exports, some aggregations of partial sectorial results might be a possible solution. In the Romanian case, the resulting elasticities seem to be lower than for other countries; this poses the question as to the effectiveness of exchange rate policies in managing the Romanian economy.     

Long Han SCM Agreement Says “No” to Charges against RMB Exchange Rate as Export Subsidy

Recently one of the big charges raised mainly by the US against RMB exchange rate is the so-called undervaluation of RMB exchange rate as constituting a subsidy for China’s exports, the US even threatens to refer it to international or domestic settlement. However, the study on the provisions of subsidy, i.e., financial contribution, benefit conferral and specificity, the SCM Agreement indicates that RMB exchange rate neither constitutes financial contribution in art. 1.1 of the SCM Agreement, nor comes in line with the listings of the Illustrative List of the Agreement. The prevailing exchange rate of RMB is the only benchmark for the measurement of the value of RMB except that no other methods are available to be used to properly determine whether RMB exchange rate confers any benefit to exporters. As regards specificity requirement, RMB exchange rate is unspecific, on the contrary, it is among the policy measures for the government to regulate economy.