Field reliability of the SAVRY with juvenile probation officers: Implications for training

Two complimentary studies were conducted to investigate the inter-rater reliability and performance of juvenile justice personnel when conducting the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk for Youth (SAVRY). Study 1 reports the performance on four standardized vignettes of 408 juvenile probation officers (JPOs) and social workers rating the SAVRY as part of their training. JPOs had high agreement with the expert consensus on the SAVRY rating of overall risk and total scores, but those trained by a peer master trainer outperformed those trained by an expert. Study 2 examined the field reliability of the SAVRY on 80 young offender cases rated by a JPO and a trained research assistant. In the field, intra-class correlation coefficients were 'excellent' for SAVRY total and most domain scores, and were 'good' for overall risk ratings. Results suggest that the SAVRY and structured professional judgment can be used reliably in the field by juvenile justice personnel and is comparable to reliability indices reported in more lab-like research studies; however, replication is essential.     

Construct validity and internal reliability of the Finnish risk and needs assessment form

Validation of risk and needs assessment instruments used to predict, and reduce, recidivism and misconduct is of ethical, practical and scientific importance. We argue for a focus on variable (i.e. changeable over time) risk factors, and that validation begins with establishing construct validity. The Finnish Risk and Needs Assessment Form, in Finnish Riski- ja tarvearvio (RITA), is a semi-structured interview form adapted from the Offender Assessment System used in England and Wales and consists primarily of variable risk factors. In this study, we examined the construct validity and internal reliability of RITA. The results suggest that the original RITA sections do not provide an adequate statistical model for describing the relationship between scored questions, and we, therefore, offer an improved model. In our proposed model, several scores are influenced by more than one dimension of risk and the dimensions correlate with each other considerably. We suggest that the dimensions that can be measured with RITA are Problems managing economy, Alcohol problems, Resistance to change, Drug abuse and associated behaviour, Aggressiveness and Employment problems. All factors except Drug abuse and associated behaviour had very good internal reliability. We propose this new model to be used in future research with, and in development of, RITA.     

Predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system in individuals with intellectual disability residing in the community

Background. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System (DRAMS) was created to measure dynamic risk in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). Steptoe, Lindsay, Murphy, and Young, (2008) examined the construct validity, reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability and found that the total DRAMS score and sections on mood, antisocial behaviour and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size for offenders with ID residing in high secure settings.     

‘Their life in your hands’: the experiences of prison-based psychologists conducting risk assessments with indeterminate sentenced prisoners in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

Assessing prisoners’ risk of recidivism and making risk-management recommendations is central to the work of prison-based psychologists. Risk assessment is particularly crucial when it involves indeterminate sentenced prisoners: psychologists’ recommendations have potentially significant consequences both for prisoners and the public. However, little is known about psychologists’ experiences of conducting such high stakes risk assessments. This paper reports the results of an exploration of psychologists’ experiences, via interviews and discussions with qualified, prison-based psychologists. Analysis using Grounded Theory methods identified one super-ordinate category of meaning, namely The Challenging Context of Risk Assessment, which comprised two sub-categories: (1) pressure of limited resources and (2) pressure of the environment. An additional major category, Risk Assessment as a Weighty Task, comprised three sub-categories: psychologists described (1) a weight of responsibility relating to the magnitude and range of their responsibilities; (2) a weight of expectation from colleagues to provide solutions, and (3) the trainee dilemma associated with the need to balance development of trainee psychologists’ competence in risk assessment with being held accountable for their work. Understanding qualified psychologists’ experiences of undertaking risk assessments with indeterminate sentenced prisoners can facilitate improvements and build on areas of existing good practice.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument, was coded for 66 male adolescents on the basis of file information and interviews. The adolescents were referred to Rentray, a juvenile correctional and treatment facility, by the Dutch juvenile courts because of severe behavioral problems or serious offenses. Institutional infractions were retrieved from incident registration files, which included acts of physical violence, verbal threat, verbal abuse, and violation of institutional rules. The interrater reliability of the SAVRY scores was good. The predictive validity of the SAVRY for physical violence against persons was excellent (Risk Total: AUC=.80, r =.33; Summery Risk Rating: AUC =.86, r =.48). The SAVRY also had good predictive validity for violence against objects, verbal threats and violations of rules, but not for verbal abuse. Implications for assessment and management of violent behavior among adolescents in residential treatment are discussed.     

Assessing Violence Risk Among Discharged Psychiatric Patients: Toward an Ecological Approach

This paper draws upon data from the Pittsburgh site of the MacArthur Foundation's Risk Assessment Study, a large-scale study of violence risk among persons discharged from psychiatric hospitals, to examine the effect of the neighborhood context on risk of violence. This paper has two purposes: (1) to assess the extent to which the inclusion of neighborhood characteristics enhances violence prediction models—models that traditionally only include individual-level characteristics; and (2) to assess the consistency of individual level risk factors across different neighborhood contexts. Results indicate that neighborhood poverty has an impact over and above the effects of individual characteristics in identifying cases with violence. These findings support efforts to include neighborhood context in the assessment and management of violence risk among discharged psychiatric patients.     

Risk assessment for intimate partner violence: how can the police assess risk?

ABSTRACT

The use of risk assessment tools by frontline police for intimate partner violence has the potential to make a difference to policing. In this paper, the key aspects of intimate partner violence risk assessment are outlined critically with a particular emphasis on how they can be used in practice. Two, evidence-based, exemplars are reviewed. These are the Ontario Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment (ODARA), an example of the actuarial approach, and the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER), an example of the structured professional judgement approach. In addition, the victim giving his or her own appraisal of risk is discussed. All three approaches have some validity when administered properly but practical factors reduce this validity. The content of the risk assessment tools are outlined and practical concerns such as training, time to administer, reliability, validity, and the overlap of intimate partner violence with other forms of offending are discussed. A balanced overview of the strengths, weaknesses and future potential of intimate partner violence risk assessment is provided.     

Assessing change in dynamic risk factors in forensic psychiatric inpatients: relationship with psychopathy and recidivism

This study explored change in dynamic risk for violence using the Clinical and Risk Management subscales of the Historical Clinical and Risk Management-20 version 3 (HCR-20 v3) and sought to determine whether change was associated with violent recidivism. The association between the magnitude of change and psychopathy was also assessed. Participants were 40 male (n = 32) and female (n = 8) forensic psychiatric inpatients discharged from a secure forensic mental health service. Results showed that participants significantly improved on the HCR-20v3 Clinical subscale but significantly worsened on the Risk Management subscale. Psychopathy was unrelated to change in Clinical and Risk Management subscales. The hypothesis that changes in dynamic risk would predict recidivism over and above total pre-treatment risk (HCR-20v3 Total score) and psychopathy was not supported. These results suggest that improvements in mental state risk factors alone are insufficient with regard to lowering violence risk.     

大型活动安保风险评估概论

风险评估是大型活动安全保卫的核心和关键。它是运用各类数学原理、模型、方法和风险数据库，通过全方位、多渠道的广泛收集可能导致各类大型活动突发事件发生的危险有害因素，预先识别潜在的各类威胁、弱点，评估险种类等级、可能造成的影响，对危机灾害后果进行准备和预警，制定应对的安全策略建议和安全解决方案，为规避与调整风险、管理决策提供科学依据的过程。大型活动风险评估的方法主要分为定性和定量两种。大型活动风险评估的过程包括风险识别、风险评价和风险控制三个组成部分。     

The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA) Guide: Reliability and Validity in Adult Male Offenders

We evaluated the reliability and validity of judgments concerning risk for violence made using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1994, 1995, 1998). We analyzed SARA ratings in six samples of adult male offenders (total N = 2681). The distribution of ratings indicated that offenders were quite heterogeneous with respect to the presence of individual risk factors and to overall perceived risk. Structural analyses of the risk factors indicated moderate levels of internal consistency and item homogeneity. Interrater reliability was high for judgments concerning the presence of individual risk factors and for overall perceived risk. SARA ratings significantly discriminated between offenders with and without a history of spousal violence in one sample, and between recidivistic and nonrecidivistic spousal assaulters in another. Finally, SARA ratings showed good convergent and discriminant validity with respect to other measures related to risk for general and violent criminality.     

In the eye of the beholder? An examination of the inter-rater reliability of the LSI-R and YLS/CMI in a correctional agency

PurposeTo examine the inter-rater reliability of two risk assessment tools: The Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI).MethodsTwo identical experiments are reported. For both studies, a random sample of 10 offenders were interviewed and videotaped with each tool (totaling 20 offenders). The tapes were then shown to a random selection of 20 raters (for a total of 40 raters) employed at a state agency. The fully-crossed design allowed each of the raters to rate the each of the cases, resulting in 200 total risk score observations for each tool. Inter-rater reliability analyses were then conducted.ResultsThe LSI-R demonstrated adequate to fair reliability, with certain domains showing lower reliability. Overall, the LSI-R had an ICC of .65. The YLS/CMI demonstrated higher reliability (ICC of .78). In addition, for the LSI-R study, comparisons were made between staff raters who work in a facility versus those in the community (e.g., probation officers). For the YLS/CMI study, comparisons were made between incarcerated offenders versus probationers. Neither comparison yielded consistent differences.ConclusionsThe YLS/CMI is generally reliable. The LSI-R showed less reliability. However, each study showed certain domains with less than ideal reliability.     

Field validity of the HCR-20 in forensic medium security units in Flanders

Structured risk assessment has become a part of routine practice in forensic settings. However, little attention has been paid to the clinical applicability of existing tools. The present research focused on the performance of the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) – one of the most commonly used tools for structured professional judgment – in the daily practice of three medium security units in Flanders. Areas under the curve for the prediction of violent recidivism during (N?=?168) and after (N?=?105) medium security treatment were non-significant. In addition, analyses showed that the HCR-20 was mainly of interest in identifying low-risk individuals. Further research measuring different aspects of predictive validity in applied settings is recommended.     

Investigating the Reliability of the Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS) Crime Report

The Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS) is a computerized investigative aid, developed by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, which is used to increase information sharing and enable crime linkages in serious crime investigations. The current study examines the reliability of the ViCLAS Crime Report by calculating the level of agreement among two samples of police officers who received one of two fictitious crime scenarios; homicide (n = 116) or sexual assault (n = 121). Results from this study show that the observed inter-rater reliability among police officers completing the ViCLAS booklet was 79.30% for the homicide scenario, and 87.70% for the sexual assault scenario. Implications of the results are discussed.     

The development and initial testing of the AIM2 framework to assess risk and strengths in young people who sexually offend

Abstract

This paper describes the AIM2 assessment framework and the process of its development and initial testing. AIM2 is used to assess areas of concerns and strengths of young people. Some preliminary analysis is described, including the correlation of assessment items, their ability to discriminate between cases, their inter-rater reliability and a small-scale recidivist study. These analyses were used to develop AIM2. Results from the recidivist study identified a particular set of concern and strength factors associated with recidivism in the sample. We conclude that the inclusion of strengths-related items are important to consider as protective factors when assessing the risk of further sexually abusive behaviours. Limitations and future directions of AIM2 are also discussed.     

Using multidimensional scaling for the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: A replication and some cautionary notes

Abstract

Crime scene profiling has received considerable attention, particularly in popular media. First, since low inter-rater reliability would affect the validity of profiling, we tested inter-rater agreement for 33 variables often used in manuals for the coding of crime-related behaviour. Thirty cases were chosen randomly from 146 cases of assault rape with unknown male offenders in Sweden during 1990–1994. Second, we used multidimensional scaling (MDS) with all 146 cases to replicate earlier work by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990) regarding motivational dimensions in unknown assault rapists. On average, inter-rater reliability was good; physical behaviours were more reliably coded than were verbal behaviours. However, a two-dimensional MDS solution with the motivational dimensions suggested by Canter and Heritage was not replicated. We argue for better empirical support for the inclusion of specific variables in coding formats for crime scene information. This is particularly important for analyses like the MDS, since the number, representativity, and intercorrelations of such variables could affect results considerably.     

Validation of Spouse Violence Risk Assessment Inventory for Police Purposes

The Spouse Violence Risk Assessment Inventory (SVRA-I) is a new scale developed by the Israeli police to measure the likelihood of male perpetrators repeating violent behavior toward their partners. This article describes the objectives of the inventory, its distinction in comparison to existing inventories, and the process of its development. Our preliminary study demonstrated a reasonable level of inter-rater reliability. Two subsequent studies examined the relationships between clinical assessments and SVRA-I scores, and additional two studies tested the validity of the inventory against criteria of repeated partner abuse. The inventory was found to be a valid and efficient tool for predicting recidivism of intimate partner violence (IPV). In the discussion, we review the limitations of devices aimed at predicting repeated IPV.     

Mental Disorder, Violence, and Gender

Recent studies have reported comparable rates of violence among men and women with mental disorder, raising important issues for clinical risk assessment. This study examines the relationship between gender and violence using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. Patients in acute psychiatric wards were interviewed 5 times over the year following their discharge to the community. Results showed some differences between men and women in the violence committed immediately following discharge, with rates for men being higher. But the prevalence of violence over the 1 year was similar for female and male discharged patients. However, there were substantial gender differences in the situational context of the violence committed. Men were more likely to have been drinking or using street drugs, and less likely to have been adhering to prescribed psychotropic medication, prior to committing violence. The violence committed by men was more likely to result in serious injury than the violence committed by women, and men were more likely than women to be arrested after committing a violent act. Women were more likely to target family members and to be violent in the home.     

The relationship between risk,deviance, treatment outcome and sexual reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers completing residential treatment for their offending

Abstract

The study investigated the relationship between static and dynamic risk and reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers who had completed a long-term residential treatment programme for their sexual behaviour problems. Results found that only High/Very High risk men as measured by a static risk assessment schedule (Risk Matrix 2000) were reconvicted for sexual offences (17% over a 2-year period, 42% over a 5-year period). Results also showed that it was generally men who were rated as a high level of dynamic risk that were reconvicted for a sexual offence (13% versus 5% over a 2-year period; 44% versus 10% over a 5-year period). The study also indicated the benefits of residential treatment for such High risk/High Deviance men in that no men who left the programme having responded to treatment had been reconvicted for sexual offences at either follow-up period.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.