THE EFFECTS OF DIRECTED PATROL AND SELF‐INITIATED ENFORCEMENT ON FIREARM VIOLENCE: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED STUDY OF HOT SPOT POLICING

Targeted policing has proven effective in reducing serious crime in areas where it is highly concentrated, but the enforcement mechanisms responsible for the success of so‐called hot spots strategies remain poorly understood. This study evaluates the effects of a 9‐month randomized controlled hot spots field experiment on firearm assaults and robberies in St. Louis, Missouri. Thirty‐two firearm violence hot spots were randomly allocated to two treatment conditions and a control condition. Directed patrols were increased in both treatment conditions, whereas the experimental protocol limited other enforcement activity in one of the treatment conditions and increased it in the other. The results from difference‐in‐difference regression analyses indicate that the intervention substantially reduced the incidence of nondomestic firearm assaults, with no evident crime displacement to surrounding areas, to times when the intervention was not active, or to nonfirearm assaults. By contrast, we find no effects of the intervention on firearm robberies. Less definitive results suggest that the certainty of arrests and occupied vehicle checks account for the treatment effects on nondomestic firearm assaults.     

UNEMPLOYMENT AND PROPERTY CRIME: A TARGET‐SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF OPPORTUNITY AND MOTIVATION AS MEDIATING FACTORS*

Most recent unemployment‐crime (U‐C) research is informed by the possibility that unemployment could both increase motivation for crime and decrease criminal opportunities. The mediating links of motivation and opportunity, though often assumed, have almost never been measured. We directly test for the potential mediating effects of opportunity and motivation using county‐level data for target‐specific crime rates such as convenience store robberies, motorcycle thefts, etc. We link these with data on the supply and value of corresponding crime targets (e.g., number and annual sales of convenience stores). Opportunity levels were generally unrelated to property crime rates and do not appear to mediate the U‐C relationship.     

Bimodal distribution of violent assaults

The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between the number of injuries inflicted on victim during violent assault and other variables, characterizing the offender and the assault. The study is based on all the cases that were processed at the City Court of Tallinn, Estonia in 1986 and 1996. The number of assault-related injuries caused to the victim in Tallinn, Estonia, for 1986 and 1996 revealed bimodal distribution. About 2/3 of the assaults resulted in 1-5 injuries, in 1/3 of the cases the number of inflicted injuries was 10 or higher, with only a relatively small number of injuries in between. This distribution pattern was stable over the 10-year interval between the observations and was invariant to alcohol intoxication, consequences, and reasons for the assault. Comparison of the offenders' criminal record during the 15-year follow-up period showed that recidivism was more common among those who had committed a multi-injury assault as their first offence. The evident distribution of assaults into few- and multi-injury groups and the fact that the number of injuries caused during the first offence is a more reliable criterion for predicting the further criminal record of the offender than the consequences of the assault suggest that there are two discrete types of behaviour determined by a set of variables characteristic of the offender's psychology.     

SPREADING THE WEALTH: THE EFFECT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME AND RACE/ETHNICITY ACROSS HOUSEHOLDS AND NEIGHBORHOODS ON CITY CRIME TRAJECTORIES*

This study tests the effect of the composition and distribution of economic resources and race/ethnicity in cities, as well as how they are geographically distributed within these cities, on crime rates during a 30‐year period. Using data on 352 cities from 1970 to 2000 in metropolitan areas that experienced a large growth in population after World War II, this study theorizes that the effect of racial/ethnic or economic segregation on crime is stronger in cities in which race/ethnicity or income are more salient (because of greater heterogeneity or inequality). We test and find that higher levels of segregation in cities with high levels of racial/ethnic heterogeneity lead to particularly high overall levels of the types of crime studied here (aggravated assaults, robberies, burglaries, and motor vehicle thefts). Similarly, higher levels of economic segregation lead to much higher levels of crime in cities with higher levels of inequality.     

The case of the missing victims: Gunshot woundings in the National Crime Survey

National Crime Survey (NCS) data yield an estimate that 171,000 Americans were nonfatally shot in criminal assaults, robberies, and rapes for the period 1973–1979. Comparing this estimate with the number of firearms homicides during this period suggests either that the death rate in gunshot cases is very high (over 1/3) or that the NCS estimate is low. Based on police-generated data appropriate to estimating the true death rate from gunshot wounds, it appears that the NCS estimate is low by a factor of about 3.0 compared with the number of criminal gunshot woundings known to the police. It is common knowledge that survey-based estimates of assault rates tend to be relatively unreliable, a fact that has been attributed to problems with respondents being willing and able to recall threats, fist fights, and other minor assaults. The current result indicates that the estimation problem is not limited to minor assaults. There is reason to think that the underestimate of gunshot woundings is the result of problems with the NCS sample as well as problems with respondent cooperation.     

Studying New York City’s Crime Decline: Methodological Issues

Methodological issues that must be considered in doing research on the New York City crime drop include the choice of a spatial unit of analysis, the choice of a mathematical representation of the processes responsible for the drop, and the choice of estimators. This paper considers the strengths and weaknesses of a time series analysis of data for New York alone, a panel analysis for the city’s precincts, and a panel analysis for a sample of cities, for studying the drop. The possibilities and limitations of precinct-level data are illustrated with annual precinct data for New York between 1988 and 2001. The paper considers static and dynamic fixed effects panel models estimated in various ways, including difference and systems generalized method of moments. These analyses find no evidence that misdemeanor arrests reduced levels of homicide, robbery, or aggravated assaults. Felony arrests reduced robberies, but only to a modest degree. Most of the decline in these three felonies had other causes.     

A SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY TO CRIME: EFFECTS OF RESIDENTIAL HISTORY ON CRIME LOCATION CHOICE*

Many offenses take place close to where the offender lives. Anecdotal evidence suggests that offenders also might commit crimes near their former homes. Building on crime pattern theory and combining information from police records and other sources, this study confirms that offenders who commit robberies, residential burglaries, thefts from vehicles, and assaults are more likely to target their current and former residential areas than similar areas they never lived in. In support of the argument that spatial awareness mediates the effects of past and current residence, it also is shown that areas of past and present residence are more likely to be targeted if the offender lived in the area for a long time instead of briefly and if the offender has moved away from the area only recently rather than a long time ago. The theoretical implications of these findings and their use for investigative purposes are discussed, and suggestions for future inquiry are made.     

The prevalence and nature of violent offending by females

The purpose of the current study was to examine the nature and prevalence of violent offending by females. Using National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 1998, this study examined the relationship between cooffending and type of offense as well as the type of weapon(s) used during violent incidents and the race of the perpetrators. The findings suggest that females are more likely to be involved in aggravated assaults compared with robberies and murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This is particularly true for females who commit their violent crimes alone. When females cooffend with other females or males, however, they are more likely to commit robberies. Overall females are more likely to be involved in violent incidents where either personal weapons or knives are used. When females cooffend with males, however, more likely to be involved in incidents with guns. Finally, the current study found that Black females were more likely to commit violent offenses with other females, whereas White females were more likely to commit violent offenses with males.     

Measurement Error in County-Level UCR Data

Maltz and Targonski (2002) have provided an important service by disaggregating the county level data to help researchers examine measurement errors in the county level data, but their conclusion that county-level crime data, as they are currently constituted, should not be used, especially in policy studies is not justified. All data has measurement error, presumably even their measures of this error. Unfortunately, however, Maltz and Targonski provide no systematic test for how bad the data are. Their graphs obscure both the small number of counties affected, that these are rural counties, and that just because some of the population in a county is not represented in calculating the crime rate, that is not the same thing as showing that the reported number is in error. Nor do they provide evidence for the more important issue of whether there is a systematic bias in the data. The evidence provided here indicates right-to-carry laws continue to produce substantial reductions in violent crime rates when states with the greatest measurement error are excluded. In fact, restricting the sample results in somewhat larger reductions in murders and robberies, but smaller reductions in aggravated assaults.     

THE IMPACT OF ENHANCED PRISON TERMS FOR FELONIES COMMITTED WITH GUNS*

Legislation mandating minimum sentences or additions to sentences for crimes committed with guns is a frequent response to gun problems. We compiled these state laws and estimated their impact on state prison populations, prison admissions, UCR crime rates, and gun use in homicides, assaults and robberies. We employed a multiple time series research design, with data for nearly all states over the past 16 to 24 years, such that for any one state the remaining states operated as controls. Several small-scale studies have suggested that the laws might reduce some types of gun crime. We found that the laws produced such an impact in no more than a few states and that there is little evidence that the laws generally reduce crime or increase prison populations.     

Maybe I Should Do This Alone: A Comparison of Solo and Co-offending Robbery Outcomes

There has been a notable increase in co-offending research in recent years, with most studies focusing on the causes and correlates of co-offending. There is little known, however, about the consequences of co-offending and how it may influence crime event outcomes for the offender. The present study compares the monetary reward and arrest risk of solo and co-offending robberies. Data from the National Incident Based Reporting System were analyzed to examine the characteristics and outcomes of robberies perpetrated by one, two, three, and four or more offenders. Though co-offending incidents were associated with greater total property value stolen, co-offending incidents resulted in significantly less property value per offender, controlling for other incident characteristics. The likelihood of an incident resulting in an arrest significantly increased with the number of offenders. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory and research on the real and perceived benefits and costs of co-offending.     

THE VICTIM-OFFENDER RELATIONSHIP AND CALLING THE POLICE IN ASSAULTS*

The revised National Crime Victimization Survey is used to examine the effects of the victim's relationship to the offender on whether assaults are reported to the police by either the victim or by third parties. The results indicate that the offender-victim relationship affects third-party but not victim reporting. The former effect occurs in part because third parties are unlikely to witness assaults involving people in ongoing relationships, particularly couples, and in part because third parties are reluctant to report minor assaults (i.e., those assaults that involve a threat but no actual attack and no weapon). We discuss possible explanations for why no effect of relationship on victim reporting was found.     

Violence in and around Entertainment Districts: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of Late‐Night Lockout Legislation

Violence in entertainment districts is a major problem across urban landscapes throughout the world. Research shows that licensed premises are the third most common location for homicides and serious assaults, accounting for one in ten fatal and nonfatal assaults. One class of interventions that aims to reduce violence in entertainment districts involves the use of civil remedies: a group of strategies that use civil or regulatory measures as legal “levers” to reduce problem behavior. One specific civil remedy used to reduce problematic behavior in entertainment districts involves manipulation of licensed premise trading hours. This article uses generalized linear models to analyze the impact of lockout legislation on recorded violent offences in two entertainment districts in the Australian state of Queensland. Our research shows that 3 a.m. lockout legislation led to a direct and significant reduction in the number of violent incidents inside licensed premises. Indeed, the lockouts cut the level of violent crime inside licensed premises by half. Despite these impressive results for the control of violence inside licensed premises, we found no evidence that the lockout had any impact on violence on streets and footpaths outside licensed premises that were the site for more than 80 percent of entertainment district violence. Overall, however, our analysis suggests that lockouts are an important mechanism that helps to control the level of violence inside licensed premises but that finely grained contextual responses to alcohol‐related problems are needed rather than one‐size‐fits‐all solutions.     

The Criminology of Homicidal Ideation: Associations with Criminal Careers and Psychopathology among Federal Correctional Clients

Homicidal ideation is a clinical construct that is almost entirely absent from the criminological literature. The current study examines the criminology of homicidal ideation using archival data from a population of federal supervised release felons from the Midwestern United States. ANOVA, Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, and epidemiological tables indicated that 12 % of offenders experienced evidence of homicidal ideation and these offenders perpetrated more murders, attempted murders, kidnappings, armed robberies, and aggravated assaults, had more severe and extensive psychopathology, and were more likely to be chronic offenders. Homicidal ideation is an important construct that should be studied more not only for its association with murder, but as an omnibus risk factor for severe criminality.     

Compstat in Australia: An analysis of the spatial and temporal impact

One of the major trends in policing sweeping across democratic societies since the mid-1990s is a management approach commonly known as COMPSTAT. Despite widespread global adoption, empirical evaluation of the impact of COMPSTAT lags behind popular accounts of its crime control benefits.

Purpose

This article evaluates the crime control impact of Queensland Police Service's version of COMPSTAT known as “Operational Performance Reviews” (OPRs).

Method

A mixed model analytic approach was used to assess the role of OPRs in explaining spatial and temporal variations in crime patterns across Queensland's 29 police districts.

Results

Analysis of the impact of OPRs on reported crime (specifically assaults, robberies and unlawful entries) suggests major differences between police districts, and that some districts are driving overall statewide crime reductions, whilst others confound positive effects of implementation of OPRs in Queensland.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate that the crime drop experienced throughout Queensland found in prior research (Mazerolle et al., 2007) is most likely attributable to a small number of police districts. The implication of these findings is that a number of districts could (and should) be called-upon during maturation of Queensland's OPRs to reduce specific crime problems in their districts and facilitate ongoing crime reductions across the state.     

The “war on cops,” retaliatory violence,and the murder of George Floyd*

The police murder of George Floyd sparked nationwide protests in the summer of 2020 and revived claims that public outcry over such high-profile police killings perpetuated a violent “war on cops.” Using data collected by the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) on firearm assaults of U.S. police officers, we use Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) modeling to empirically assess if and how patterns of firearm assault on police officers in the United States were influenced by the police murder of George Floyd. Our analysis finds that the murder of George Floyd was associated with a 3-week spike in firearm assaults on police, after which the trend in firearms assaults dropped to levels only slightly above that which were predicted by pre-Floyd data. We discuss potential explanations for these findings and consider their relevance to the contemporary discussion of a “war on cops,” violence, and officer safety.     

Measuring the crime displacement and diffusion of benefit effects of open-street CCTV in South Korea

Crime prevention strategies are implemented to reduce the damage caused by crimes with CCTV (Closed-Circuit Television) being broadly accepted as one of the main strategies. However, along with CCTV's perceived high expectations as crime deterrent, there is also a growing controversy over CCTV's potentially unexpected limitations. For example, the crime displacement (the presence of CCTV will change the locations of crime and its total number will not change) and the diffusion effects of crime control benefits (the crime prevention effect of CCTV may filter through to neighboring areas) are the representative controversial issues. In this study, we aimed to verify the crime displacement and the diffusion of benefit of open-street CCTV by analyzing the crime tendencies empirically.Gwang Myeong City in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea was chosen to analyze the crime displacement using the WDQ (Weighted Displacement Quotient) which compares the crime tendency of a location with that of its neighboring areas. The results showed that the crime prevention effect of the CCTV was significant. The number of robberies and thefts in the areas with CCTV installed reduced by 47.4%, while the areas without CCTV showed practically no change in the number of crimes. The crime displacement caused by the CCTV was not either found or inconsequential, and the crime rates in the neighboring areas also decreased slightly. Of major cause for concern was the fact that CCTV was marginally effective in deterring violence and as such, there should be a more detailed scientific analysis of the pattern and type of crimes committed in an area where CCTV's are being installed.     

Assaultive behavior in state psychiatric hospitals: differences between forensic and nonforensic patients

Forensic patients are occupying an increasingly large number of beds in state psychiatric hospitals. The presence of these mentally ill offenders has raised concerns about the risk they present to nonforensic patients. This study compared the rate of assaults and factors associated with assaultive behavior among 308 nonforensic patients and two groups of forensic patients including 469 patients found not guilty by reason of insanity and 76 pretrial patients. Consistent with other studies, nonforensic patients had higher rates of assaults than either group of forensic patients. However, being a forensic patient did not affect the odds of assault when controlling for the effects of demographic and clinical variables in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Factors associated with assaults in each of the three patient groups were identified using multivariate analyses. Implications are presented for treatment of assaultive behavior, mixing of forensic and nonforensic patients within state hospitals, forensic release policies, and future research.