AN EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK FOR STUDYING DESISTANCE AS A PROCESS*

Recent reviews of the desistance literature have advocated studying desistance as a process, yet current empirical methods continue to measure desistance as a discrete state. In this paper, we propose a framework for empirical research that recognizes desistance as a developmental process. This approach focuses on changes in the offending rate rather than on offending itself. We describe a statistical model to implement this approach and provide an empirical example. We conclude with several suggestions for future research endeavors that arise from our conceptualization of desistance.     

THE ROLE OF TURNING POINTS IN ESTABLISHING BASELINE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PEOPLE IN DEVELOPMENTAL AND LIFE‐COURSE CRIMINOLOGY

Turning points, between‐person differences, and within‐person changes have all been linked to desistance from crime. Nevertheless, the means through which between‐person differences are frequently captured in life‐course criminology makes them intertwined with, and perhaps confounded by, turning points in life. We propose that a new way of capturing the between‐person effect—the baseline between‐person difference—could benefit theoretically informed tests of developmental and life‐course issues in criminology. Because they occur at one time point immediately preceding a turning point in life, we demonstrate that baseline between‐person differences establish meaningful theoretical connections to behavior and the way people change over time. By using panel data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, we estimate models capturing within‐person change and baseline between‐person differences in social bonds (family support) and differential association (peer criminality) at the time of release from prison. The results demonstrate that baseline levels of family support protect people from postrelease substance use but not from crime. Baseline between‐person differences and within‐person changes in peer criminality, however, are robustly related to crime and substance use. Collectively, baseline between‐person differences seem critical for behavior and within‐person change over time, and the results carry implications for reentry‐based policy as well as for theory testing in developmental criminology more broadly.     

THE LAW OF CRIME CONCENTRATION AND THE CRIMINOLOGY OF PLACE*

According to Laub (2004), criminology has a developmental life course with specific turning points that allow for innovations in how we understand and respond to crime. I argue that criminology should take another turn in direction, focusing on microgeographic hot spots. By examining articles published in Criminology, I show that only marginal attention has been paid to this area of study to date—often termed the criminology of place. I illustrate the potential utility of a turning point by examining the law of crime concentration at place, which states that for a defined measure of crime at a specific microgeographic unit, the concentration of crime will fall within a narrow bandwidth of percentages for a defined cumulative proportion of crime. By providing the first cross‐city comparison of crime concentration using a common geographic unit, the same crime type, and examining a general crime measure, I find strong support for a law of crime concentration. I also show that crime concentration stays within a narrow bandwidth across time, despite strong volatility in crime incidents. By drawing from these findings, I identify several key research questions for future study. In conclusion, I argue that a focus on the criminology of place provides significant opportunity for young scholars and has great promise for advancing criminology as a science.     

EXPANDING CRIMINOLOGY'S DOMAIN: THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY 2006 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS*

Democracy is directly linked to the two main components of criminology: crime and justice. Moreover, the scientific study of crime and justice has been limited in large part to researchers working in democratic regimes. In this article, I address the question of how criminologists through research and education can better nurture democratic, nonauthoritarian societies. I argue that our field would be strengthened by expanding the domain of criminology in five directions: 1) by providing more emphasis on historical data and analysis, 2) by broadening the scope of emotions we test for among offenders, 3) by doing more cross‐national comparative analysis, 4) by bringing situational variables into our research, and 5) by making criminology more interdisciplinary. Although the most recent wave of democratization produced a record number of democratic regimes, we are observing ominous challenges to fundamental democratic rights from around the world. As criminologists, we have a vested interest in supporting the democratic, nonauthoritarian societies in which our craft has thrived.     

LONG‐TERM CRIME DESISTANCE AND RECIDIVISM PATTERNS—EVIDENCE FROM THE ESSEX COUNTY CONVICTED FELON STUDY*

Two conflicting definitions of desistance exist in the criminology literature. The first definition is instantaneous desistance in which an offender simply chooses to end a criminal career instantaneously moving to a zero rate of offending ( Blumstein et al., 1986 ). The second definition views desistance as a process by which the offending rate declines steadily over time to zero or to a point close to zero ( Bushway et al., 2001 ; Laub and Sampson, 2001 ; Leblanc and Loeber, 1998 ). In this article, we capitalize on the underlying assumptions of several parametric survival distributions to gain a better understanding of which of these models best describes actual patterns of desistance. All models are examined using 18 years of follow‐up data on a cohort of felony convicts in Essex County, NJ. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions. First, some people have already desisted at the beginning of the follow‐up period, which is consistent with the notion of “instantaneous desistance.” Second, a three‐parameter model that allows for a turning point in the risk of recidivism followed by a long period of decline fits the data best. This conclusion suggests that for those offenders active at the start of the study period, the risk of recidivism is declining over time. However, we also find that a simpler two‐group model fits the data almost as well and gains superiority in the later years of follow‐up. This last point is particularly relevant as it suggests that the observed gradual decline in the hazard over time is a result of a compositional effect rather than of a pattern of individually declining hazards.     

Pygmalion in the reintegration process: Desistance from crime through the looking glass

The study of desistance from crime has come of age in recent years, and there are now several, competing theories to account for the ability of long-term offenders to abstain from criminal behavior. Most prominently, recent explanations have borrowed elements from informal social control theory, differential association theory and cognitive psychology. In the following, we argue that labeling theory may be a neglected factor in understanding the desistance process. Drawing on interview data collected as part of a study of an offender reintegration program, we illustrate how the idea of the “looking-glass self-concept” and others is a useful metaphor in understanding the process of rehabilitation or recovery in treatment programs.     

WHEN THE TIES THAT BIND UNWIND: EXAMINING THE ENDURING AND SITUATIONAL PROCESSES OF CHANGE BEHIND THE MARRIAGE EFFECT

Despite the continued growth of research demonstrating that marriage promotes desistance from crime, efforts aimed at understanding the mechanisms driving this effect are limited. Several theories propose to explain why we observe a reduction in offending after marriage including identity changes, strengthened attachments, reduced opportunities, and changes to routine activities. Although mechanisms are hard to measure, we argue that each proposed mechanism implies a specific change process, that is, whether the change that ensues after marriage is enduring (stable) or situational (temporary). Drawing on a medical model framework, we cast the role of marriage as a treatment condition and observe whether the effect of marriage is conditional on staying married or whether the effect persists when the “treatment” is taken away (i.e., divorce). We use 13 years of monthly level data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), a nationally representative sample containing close to 3,000 individuals with an arrest history, to examine changes in relationship status and arrest from adolescence into young adulthood. Estimates from multilevel within‐individual models reveal greater support for situational mechanisms in that divorce is detrimental particularly for those in longer marriages; yet they also reveal important caveats that suggest a closer examination of the marriage effect. This research adds to the growing body of knowledge regarding the marriage effect by redirecting desistance research away from asking if marriage matters to asking how marriage affects desistance. A better understanding of this change process has important implications for criminal justice policy.     

THE PLACE OF CONTEXT: A THEORY AND STRATEGY FOR CRIMINOLOGY'S HARD PROBLEMS

I present a theoretical framework and analytic strategy for the study of place as a fundamental context in criminology, with a focus on neighborhood effects. My approach builds on the past 15 years of research from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods and from a recent book unifying the results. I argue that “ecometrics” can be applied at multiple scales, and I elaborate core principles and guiding hypotheses for five problems: 1) legacies of inequality and developmental neighborhood effects; 2) race, crime, and the new diversity; 3) cognition and context, above all the social meaning of disorder; 4) the measurement and sources of collective efficacy in a cosmopolitan world; and 5) higher order structures beyond the neighborhood that arise in complex urban systems. Although conceptually distinct, these hard problems are interdependent and ultimately linked to a frontier in criminology: contextual causality.     

Desistance and dynamic risk factors belong together

ABSTRACT

Depending on definitions, dynamic risk factors and desistance are either highly intertwined or aligned with distinctly separate paradigms. This paper describes and critiques each concept, and then reviews research on how they may be linked, including some preliminary findings from a longitudinal study of the early phases of desistance in high-risk offenders. I argue that seeking to understand how reductions in dynamic risk work together with the development of the psychological components of desistance will shed the most light on how offenders move from persistence to the maintenance of desistance.     

Investigating Life Course Offender Subgroup Heterogeneity: An Exploratory Latent Class Analysis Approach

Within developmental criminology, a common classification of offender behavior is life course trajectories broken into discrete groups of early onseters, late onseters, persisters, or desisters. Yet some investigators state that this is an oversimplification of offending behavior and may not be applicable to females and males. The current study utilizes National Youth Survey data and exploratory latent class analysis to determine whether substantive latent classes exist within offender life course trajectories for females and males and to examine differences between the genders across these groups. The analyses reveal the presence of 4 types of latent subgroups: (a) female-majority de-escalators, (b) male-majority persistent de-escalators, (c) male-dominated persisters, and (d) male-majority chronic fluctuators. Post hoc analyses reveal similarities and differences among the latent groups. Research implications of this study suggest further explorations into whether strict 2-pronged developmental models are indeed appropriately tapping and capturing the full essence of criminal careers for both females and males. The results suggest that continued programming that disrupts delinquent peer associations and reduces consumption of drugs and/or alcohol may be promising in promoting desistance—particularly for females.     

CORRELATES OF VIOLENT POLITICAL EXTREMISM IN THE UNITED STATES*

Although research on terrorism has grown rapidly in recent years, few scholars have applied criminological theories to the analysis of individual‐level political extremism. Instead, researchers focused on radicalization have drawn primarily from political science and psychology and have overwhelmingly concentrated on violent extremists, leaving little variation in the dependent variable. With the use of a newly available data set, we test whether variables derived from prominent criminological theories are helpful in distinguishing between nonviolent and violent extremists. The results show that variables related to social control (lack of stable employment), social learning (radical peers), psychological perspectives (history of mental illness), and criminal record all have significant effects on participation in violent political extremism and are robust across multiple techniques for imputing missing data. At the same time, other common indicators of social control (e.g., education and marital status) and social learning perspectives (e.g., radical family members) were not significant in the multivariate models. We argue that terrorism research would benefit from including criminology insights and by considering political radicalization as a dynamic, evolving process, much as life‐course criminology treats more common forms of crime.     

MASCULINITIES,PERSISTENCE, AND DESISTANCE

In life‐course criminology, when gender has been the focus of study, it has predominantly been treated as a variable. Studies that explore the gendered nature of criminal careers through the lived experiences of offenders are rare, even though these studies can make important contributions to our understanding of crime and the life course. Analyzing qualitative data, this article uses life‐history narratives of a small sample of male juvenile delinquents (N = 25), born in 1969–1974, to explore the possible link among masculinities, persistence, and desistance from crime. The findings of the study suggest that processes of persistence and desistance are imbued with age‐specific norms of what it means to “be a man” and successfully do masculinity in different stages of life. Analyzing these gender‐specific practices gives a deepened understanding of processes that underlie the offenders’ lives as they go through stages of continuity and change in crime. The findings of the study further suggest a complex intersection between gendered biographies and gendered structures, with fruitful contributions to life‐course criminology. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Behavioral Heterogeneity in Adolescent Friendship Networks

Criminologists’ understanding of peer influences has been greatly advanced by social network methods; however, relatively scant attention has been paid to improving measurement. In particular, research has continued to measure peer influence by averaging the level of delinquency within a peer network, thereby neglecting the role of behavioral heterogeneity. The present study seeks to advance theory and research into peer influences on delinquency by explicitly modeling behavioral heterogeneity in peer networks measured as the variance. Drawing on social learning and opportunity theories, we argue that behavioral heterogeneity should attenuate the effect of average peer delinquency on individual offending. Models using social network data from the Add Health were estimated predicting involvement in two delinquent substance-use acts (cigarette smoking and getting drunk) as a function of peer influences. The results are consistent with our hypothesis, indicating that behavioral heterogeneity matters. Findings suggest that future research employing network models could incorporate peer behavioral heterogeneity to get a more accurate portrait of the processes of peer influence.     

Postmodernism and Thinking Quantum Holographically

Postmodern analysis has suggested new directions in critical criminology. We first situate the development of postmodern analysis, particularly chaos, catastrophe, Lacanian psychoanalytic, and edgework theory. One more recent derivative of a postmodern approach, and as of yet undeveloped, is quantum holography. This article develops a process-informational paradigm rooted in quantum holography. We argue that the noosphere we operate within needs to be challenged. We argue, moreover, criminology lacks a subject, a viable agent. We offer Schema QD, an inter- and intra- subjective agent that is neither a transcendental nor passive subject. We provide short examples of applications in this area meant as suggestive not exhaustive, and conclude with future directions.     

‘Seeing’ is believing: Positivist terrology, peacemaking criminology, and the northern ireland peace process

In this essay, the authors seek to draw upon the understanding and critique of positivism within criminological discourse in order to offer one analysis of the British governments’ approach to the Northern Ireland peace process. They argue that this approach has been hampered not just by the political reliance of the John Major government on Ulser Unionist support at Westminster but by a political and ideological approach to the peace process, informed by positivist terrorology, which has lead to an inability to ‘see’ the potential for peace. Offering a brief analysis of one of its leading academic proponents, the authors argue that such a paradigm posits a view of the liberal democratic state as axiomatically legitimate. Politically-motivated violence within such a state is seen as a purely criminal attack upon it, fundamentally inexplicable in terms other than the deviancy of its perpetrators. Thus in this view, politically-motivated violence is only combatable through purely instrumental, technical, and scientific means. By way of contrast to this paradigm, the authors offer an alternative vision, based on the epistemologies of critical and peacemaking criminology which, they argue, offers much greater potential for the prospects of peace in Northern Ireland and similar political conflicts elsewhere. NIACRO     

Are Risky Youth Less Protectable as They Age? The Dynamics of Protection during Adolescence and Young Adulthood

Research on recidivism in criminal justice and desistance in criminology are not integrated. Yet, both fields are moving towards models that look at how positive elements in a person’s environment can impact a person’s behavior, conditional on different levels of risk. This study builds on this observation by applying interactional theory and the concept of Risk–Needs–Responsivity to theorize that both Needs and Responsivity will change over time in predictable ways. We then use a novel empirical approach with the Rochester Youth Development Study to show that even in late adolescence, individuals who are at risk for violence can be protected from future violence and risky behavior like gun carrying with positive events in their environment and personal life. In young adulthood, fewer people are still at risk for violence, and those who are at risk are harder to protect from future violence and gun carrying.     

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS AND DELINQUENCY ESCALATION IN EARLY ADOLESCENCE*

A recent emphasis in criminology has been on trajectories, life transitions, and turning points that affect the escalation, stabilization, or desistance of deviant behavior. The purpose of this article is to describe and examine one potential pathway of delinquency escalation in early and mid-adolescence. It draws upon Agnew's general strain theory and research on adolescent stress to describe a significant transitory stage of the life course. A key organizing principle underlying the proposed pathway is that although stressful life events are highly variable among adolescents, experiencing a persistent or increasing number over time can lead to an escalation of delinquency. Using four years of sequential data from the Family Health Study (651 adolescents aged 11–14 during year one), we estimate a hierarchical growth-curve model that emphasizes the effects of life events on delinquency. The model assumes that delinquency is distributed as an overdispersed Poisson random variable. The results indicate that experiencing a relatively high number of life events over time is related to a significant “growth” of delinquency but that this relationship is not affected by sex, family income, self-esteem, or mastery.     

Shifting Perspectives: Cognitive Changes Mediate the Impact of Romantic Relationships on Desistance from Crime

Although research regarding the impact of marriage on desistance is important, most romantic relationships during early adulthood, the period in the life course when involvement in criminal offending is relatively high, do not involve marriage. Using the internal moderator approach, we tested hypotheses regarding the impact of non-marital romantic relationships on desistance using longitudinal data from a sample of approximately 600 African American young adults. The results largely supported the study hypotheses. We found no significant association between simply being in a romantic relationship and desistance from offending. On the other hand, for both males and females quality of romantic relationship was rather strongly associated with desistance. Partner antisociality only influenced the offending of females. Much of the effect of quality of romantic relationship on desistance was mediated by a reduction in commitment to a criminogenic knowledge structure (a hostile view of people and relationships, concern with immediate gratification, and cynical view of conduct norms). The mediating effect of change in affiliation with deviant peers was not significant once the contribution of criminogenic knowledge structure was taken into account. The findings are discussed in terms of social control and cognitive accounts of the mechanisms whereby romantic relationships influence desistance.     

DRUG USE AND DESISTANCE PROCESSES

Sampson and Laub's age‐graded theory of informal social control emphasizes the importance of adult social bonds such as marriage and stable employment in redirecting behavior in a more prosocial direction. Heavy alcohol use has also been shown to influence persistent patterns of offending as well as more episodic offending across the life course. Sampson and Laub's life‐course theory emphasizes the negative impact of alcohol use on marital and employment bonds. Although alcohol has indeed been shown to have significant effects on criminal offending, we argue that drug use and the drug culture in which many contemporary offenders are enmeshed have consequences that often complicate desistance processes in ways that alcohol does not. Drug use and its lifestyle concomitants bring together a host of distinctive social dynamics that compromise multiple life domains. The current project investigates the role of drug use on desistance processes relying on a contemporary sample of previously institutionalized youth. We draw on three waves of data from the Ohio life‐course study, a project that spans some 21 years. The results support the assertion that drug use exerts unique effects on desistance processes, once levels of alcohol use are taken into account. We investigate possible mechanisms that help to explain the differential impact of drug use on offending and find that social network effects, particularly partner criminality, explain some but not all of the negative impact of drug use on life‐course patterns of criminal offending.     

In partial defense of socialist realism

While left realist discourse emerged out of the specific politics of policing in England and Wales, its relative importance for progressive criminology generally has been the subject of much debate. On the one hand, the advocates of left realism have consistently argued that the local crime survey provides an empirical basis for understanding crime patterns and for developing progressive crime control policy. Critics of left realism, on the other hand, have argued that for a variety of reasons, the progressive quality of realist criminology is dubious at best, and reactionary at worst. This paper explores both sides of this debate and argues that while left realism has the potential of making a considerable contribution to the struggle for social justice, that contribution must rest on empirical observation. The paper suggests that while much of the foundation work for left realist literature is grounded in local crime survey data, recent policy recommendations emerging in this literature are not. It is argued that while the local crime survey has potential, there are a number of theoretical and methodological concerns raised by this technology which appear to have remained unexplored within the current debates.The paper begins by challenging Young's conception of the aetiological crisis facing criminology, and argues that the crisis is a definitional one. Ian Taylor's critique of left realism generally, and the Islington Crime Survey (ICS) specifically, is then closely examined in order to assess its validity. It is argued that by imputing his own purposes to the ICS, Taylor's critique is misplaced while the progressive potential that local crime survey technology offers for criminology, both academically and practically, remains unnoticed by him. The section concludes by arguing that a more thoughtful consideration of this line of inquiry leads to the conclusion that while such a technology is of utility, in order for that potential to be realized there are a number of methodological considerations which must be examined.These methodological considerations are then explored. It is argued that if left realism is to distinguish itself from a more conventional approach, local crime surveys must consider the measurement of all moments within the process of crime construction, eliminating the conservative bias inherent in conventional surveys, eliminating the sexist bias inherent in conventional surveys, coping with the sampling error produced by cost effective sampling designs, local versus national surveys, the use of proxy interviews, and the use of in-person interviews as opposed to telephone interviews.The paper concludes by arguing that while modest, the contribution of left realist surveys to the development of progressive criminology and the struggle for social justice is an important one which, if nurtured in a thoughtful way, has the potential for contributing to the demise of the state's monopoly on crime and policing knowledge.