The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version as Incrementally Valid Predictors of Recidivism

A follow-up of 107 male federal prison inmates previously tested with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) was conducted to test the incremental validity of both measures. The PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score was found to predict general recidivism and serious recidivism when age, prior charges, and the PCL:SV were controlled. The PCL:SV, on the other hand, failed to predict general and serious recidivism when age, prior charges, and the PICTS were controlled. These findings support the hypothesis that content-relevant self-report measures like the PICTS are capable of predicting crime-relevant outcomes above and beyond the contributions of basic demographic variables like age, criminal history, and such popular non-self-report rating procedures as the PCL:SV.     

How well do dynamic needs predict recidivism? Implications for risk assessment and risk reduction

Purpose

The current study assessed the predictive validity of nine dynamic risk factors in two samples of justice-involved individuals (n = 24,972) to identify promising targets for correctional programming. The study also tested the incremental predictive validity of dynamic risk relative to static indicators of recidivism risk (i.e., criminal history, age and sex).

Methods

The study relied on bivariate correlations and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses to test the predictive and incremental validity of dynamic risk constructs measured by the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R).

Results

Study findings revealed that while several dynamic risk constructs were significantly related to recidivism (antisocial attitudes, antisocial peers, education/employment, and substance abuse) over a 36-month follow-up period, the inclusion of dynamic risk items on the LSI-R did little to improve the overall predictive validity of the instrument. Across both study samples, static criminal history risk emerged as the most robust predictor of recidivism.

Conclusions

The advantages of third and fourth generation risk-need assessment tools are noted for classification purposes, but the study findings imply that risk prediction is better served by static risk factors. Implications for risk assessment and offender case management are discussed.     

The PCL-R and violent recidivism in a prospective follow-up of a nationwide sample of female offenders

Psychopathy has been linked to violent reoffending in men, but the findings in women have been contradictory. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) for violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of female violent offenders. The offenders (n = 48) had been assessed by the PCL-R and were followed after their release from prison or a psychiatric hospital. The average follow-up period was 8 years. Of the offenders, 16 (33%) had been reconvicted of a violent crime. Current findings of the performance indicators did not support the use of the PCL-R as a predictive instrument assessing risk of violent recidivism in females. The findings indicate that impulsivity plays a crucial role in female violent recidivism and that the PCL-R should be used with caution in risk assessment with female populations.     

Testing the three- and four-factor models of the Korean version PCL-R as predictors of two antisocial outcomes – recidivism and risk

Psychopathy has consistently been associated with antisocial outcomes. The three- and four-factor models have been best fitted to data relating to Korean serious offenders (N?=?451), offering construct validity of the Korean Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). However, no study has yet tested the predictive power of the Korean PCL-R to explain two different types of antisocial outcomes: (1) risk of inmates measured by correctional officers during incarceration and (2) recidivism after release. By exploring these two forms of antisociality, here we sought to establish the predictive and construct validities of the Korean version of PCL-R. We found that the deviant lifestyle (Factor 3) performed best for predicting both antisocial forms (risk and recidivism) and that the deficits in interpersonal (Factor 1) and affective (Factor 2) abilities also uniquely predicted one subtype of risk, which suggests the three-factor model is better than the four-factor model in predictions. These findings will be useful for criminal justice experts and practitioners in Korea.     

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.     

The PCL: YV and recidivism in male and female juveniles: a follow-up into young adulthood

Adolescents, and most recently, adolescent females, have emerged as an important population in violence risk assessment and have sparked a debate regarding the downward and gendered extension of the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV). This article evaluates the differential prediction of the three and four-factor models of the PCL:YV for male (n=201) and female (n=55) juvenile offenders using a prospective four and one-half year follow-up (M=3 years) study. Both models of the PCL:YV were significant predictors for boys; however, contrary to findings from studies using shorter follow-up periods, the predictive power was due primarily to the behavioral features of psychopathy. The PCL:YV was not a significant predictor of non-violent or violent recidivism for girls. This study does not lend support for the use of the PCL:YV as a risk factor for girl offenders. More research is needed to understand the application of the psychopathy construct in youth, particularly in girls.     

Effectiveness of sex offender treatment for psychopathic sexual offenders

Meta-analyses have suggested that sexual offender treatment (SOT) completion is associated with lowered sexual recidivism rates for convicted sexual offenders. The paucity of properly designed studies allows for the alternative explanation of less recidivism among treated samples as reflecting that lower risk offenders disproportionately self-select into treatment. A test of the "self-selection explanation" can occur by investigating treatment effect on known high-risk offenders. Psychopathy correlates with increased sexual recidivism risk, such that an exploration of the SOT effect on psychopathic offenders could clarify the accuracy of the self-selection hypothesis. Additionally, the debated degree to which psychopaths are treatable might obtain clarification by a research review. This article examines empirical findings concerning the effectiveness of SOT for psychopathic sexual offenders. Ten studies were found to meet the minimal quality standards used, stemming from only four data sources. Shortcomings of existing research precluded clear conclusions, though trends in the data are delineated.     

The impact of pre-treatment responsivity and treatment participation on violent recidivism in a violent offender sample

This study assessed whether pre-treatment responsivity (psychopathy, motivation to attend treatment, denial and minimisation of offending behaviour, and feelings of guilt or shame) predicted violent recidivism and/or moderated the effectiveness of a violence intervention programme. Participants were 114 male violent offenders who were referred to a structured violent offender group treatment programme; 84 offenders commenced the programme. Results showed that treatment completion did not have a significant main effect on recidivism but that psychopathy scores moderated the effects of treatment. Offenders with high scores on the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) who were rated as having good engagement with treatment, or who completed treatment, had similar violent recidivism rates compared to offenders with low PCL:SV scores. In contrast, offenders with high PCL:SV scores who dropped out of treatment or were poorly engaged had significantly higher rates of violent recidivism. These findings indicate that treatment effectiveness could be enhanced, and greater reductions in recidivism achieved, if programmes find ways to engage and maintain psychopathic offenders in treatment.     

Violent and sexual offences: a validation of the predictive quality of the PCL:SV in Switzerland

Used to diagnose psychopathy, the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) is still rarely used in the German-speaking part of Europe. The aim of the present study was to conduct a first-time evaluation of the predictive validity of the PCL:SV for sexual and violent recidivism in the German language area. PCL:SV scores for 96 violent and sexual offenders in Switzerland were assessed. These assessments were based on data taken from the forensic psychiatric expert opinions. The scores were then compared to subsequent recidivism as shown in the official criminal records. ROC analysis indicated a cut-off score of 14 for maximized overall predictive accuracy. Consistent with various results from past research in North America and Europe, the PCL:SV yielded a satisfying predictive accuracy (ROC area=.69). This degree of accuracy demonstrates the PCL:SV's usefulness for risk assessment of sexual and violent delinquency in the Swiss cultural and German language area.     

Psychopathy (PCL-R) Predicts Violent Recidivism Among Criminal Offenders with Personality Disorders in Sweden

Psychopathy as conceptualized with Hare's Psychopathy Checklist Revised, PCL-R, has attracted much research during the 1990s. In the Scandinavian countries, few studies that empirically support the validity of North American risk assessment techniques in our regional context have been published. The purpose of this paper is to explore the predictive power of the PCL-R in a population of personality-disordered violent offenders subjected to forensic psychiatric evaluation in Sweden. Following release from prison (n = 172), discharge from forensic psychiatric treatment (n = 129), or probation (n = 51), a total of 352 individuals were followed for up to 8 years (mean = 3.7 years) with reconviction for violent crime as endpoint variable (base rate 34%). As the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic (AUC of ROC) analysis was calculated. For PCL-R scores to predict 2-year violent recidivism, AUC of ROC was .72 (95% CI: .66–.78). In addition, the personality dimension of psychopathy (Factor 1) and the behavioral component (Factor 2) both predicted 2-year recidivism significantly better than random: AUC of ROC .64 (95% CI: .57–.70) and .71 (95% CI: .65–.77), respectively. We conclude that psychopathy is probably as valid a predictor of violent recidivism in Swedish forensic settings as seen in previous North American studies.     

Violent recidivism in criminal psychopaths

The predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) was compared with 3 actuarial risk scales in a sample of 81 offenders followed for a maximum of 67 months (average of 30 months). The recommittal or general recidivism rate for the entire sample was 57% (40% for nonpsychopaths, 51.2% for a mixed group, and 85% for psychopaths). The violent reoffense rate was 10% for the sample (nonpsychopaths 0%, mixed 7.3%, psychopaths 25%). All instruments were significantly correlated with general recidivism; however, the PCL-R was the best predictor of violent recidivism. Compared to the actuarial scales, the PCL-R had a higher predictive efficiency (Relative Improvement Over Chance (RIOC)) and yielded fewer decision errors. Most importantly, Factor 1 was a better predictor of violent recidivism than Factor 2, suggesting that the trait construct of psychopathy makes a unique contribution to the prediction of violent recidivism.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

Adolescents with Psychopathic Characteristics in a Substance Abusing Cohort: Treatment Process and Outcomes

Psychopathy is a condition with important consequences both for individuals who experience it and for the communities in which they live. Although the assessment of psychopathy among adolescents remains controversial, some evidence suggests that the affective and behavioral traits of adult psychopathy begin to emerge in childhood (B. B. Lahey & A. Kazdin, 1990) and continue across the lifespan (A. E. Forth, S. D. Hart, & R. D. Hare, 1990). The present study used the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV; A. E. Forth, S. D. Kosson, & R. D. Hare, in press) to retrospectively assess psychopathic characteristics, treatment process, and outcomes of 64 individuals referred for treatment to a substance abuse program for adjudicated adolescents. This study focused on the relationship between psychopathic characteristics and treatment process and outcome variables, including attrition rates, quality of participation, substance use throughout treatment, clinical improvement, and 12-month recidivism rates. Psychopathic characteristics were negatively related to treatment process and outcome variables, including attrition, participation, substance use, and clinical improvement. Psychopathic characteristics were positively related to the number of arrests in the 12 months following treatment completion. Implications for treatment and future research with adolescents displaying psychopathic characteristics are discussed.     

Psychopathy and internalizing psychopathology

There is general consensus in clinical and research literature that the core feature of psychopathy consists of an affective deficit. However, previous studies tend to find weak and inconsistent associations between psychopathy and measures of internalizing psychopathology. In this study we test whether the predominant practice of using questionnaires to assess internalizing psychopathology has influenced the results of previous research. We argue that questionnaires measure general distress rather than specific symptoms of internalizing psychopathology, and that the validity of questionnaires might be impaired by psychopathic traits, such as impression management and lack of affective experience. Combining a questionnaire (Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21; DASS-21) and a semi-structured interview (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-R Axis 1 Disorders; SCID-I) for internalizing psychopathology, we test the differential association of both measures with the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) in a sample of 89 male detainees. In accordance with our prediction, we found moderate negative associations between the Interpersonal and Affective facets of the PCL-R and SCID-I, but no significant associations with the DASS-21. We found no evidence that psychopathic traits decrease the validity of the responses on a questionnaire. We conclude that the interpersonal and affective features of psychopathy are negatively related to specific symptoms of internalizing psychopathology, but not with general distress.     

Crime profiles and conditional release performance of psychopathic and non‐psychopathic sexual offenders

Purpose. This study investigated the influence of psychopathy and sex offender subtype on criminal history, probability of being granted conditional release, and performance while on conditional release in a diverse group of violent offenders. We predicted that psychopathic sexual offenders would be associated with relatively prolific violent and sexual offending, a high probability of successful conditional release applications despite their past behaviour (resulting from ‘putting on a good show’ in a parole hearing), and poor performance in the community. Methods. Information was gathered via a correctional file review of 310 Canadian male federal offenders. Offenders were categorized into groups based on their sexual offence history (non‐sex offender, rapist, child molester, or mixed rapist/molester) and Psychopathy Checklist – Revised (PCL‐R; Hare, 2003) ratings. Their offences (sexual, violent, or non‐violent) and their complete conditional release histories were coded. Results. Psychopathy was associated with more violent and non‐violent, but not sexual, offences. A significant interaction between psychopathy and offender subtype revealed that psychopathy was associated with a greater number of sex offences within child molesters. High‐psychopathy offenders (both sexual and non‐sexual offenders) were about 2.5 times more likely to be granted conditional release than non‐psychopathic offenders. Conclusions. Psychopathy is associated with more prolific sexual offending among child molesters and – despite their extensive criminal histories and high recidivism rate – a great proficiency in persuading parole boards to release them into the community. Specialized education and training in dealing with psychopathic offenders is urgently needed.     

Assessing psychopathy in young people: the validity of the Psychopathic Checklist: Youth Version for a sample of Spanish offenders

In this study, we assessed the validity of the Psychopathic Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) in a Spanish sample of juvenile court-involved youths. Although recent Anglo-Saxon literature on the topic supports the usefulness of psychopathic traits in adolescent offenders for predicting recidivism and future violence, little is still known about their predictive ability for other cultures. The results of this study suggest that the PCL:YV possesses adequate concurrent criterion-related validity (by using self-reported version of Antisocial Process Screening Device) and retrospective validity (particularly as regards the antisocial, but also the affective–interpersonal domain). Specifically, retrospective validity was confirmed by positive correlations with history of truancy at school, poor parenting, parental delinquency, self-reported antisocial behaviour and illicit behaviour patterns including violent offences recorded in official files; however, careful analysis revealed that the Lifestyle and Antisocial factors are the main dimensions related to past offences, whether violent or otherwise. In conclusion, the PCL:YV is a convenient instrument for assessing psychopathy, and, hence, the risk of criminality, in youths.     

The Static-99R predicts sexual and violent recidivism for individuals with low intellectual functioning*

A current debate is whether actuarial risk assessment tools predict sexual recidivism in sexual offenders with intellectual disabilities (SOIDs). Since intellectual functioning exists on a spectrum, the present study examined the predictive validity of the Static-99R across the range of intellectual functioning. The sample was comprised of 454 adult sexual offenders assessed at an outpatient clinic and followed for an average of 10 years. Offenders in the extremely low/borderline group had higher scores on the Static-99R than other offenders, largely due to their score on the detachment subscale of the Static-99R, but did not have significantly higher recidivism rates. Calibration analyses suggested that the expected and observed recidivism rates did not differ significantly. Intellectual functioning did not add incremental validity to the Static-99R. Further, there was no interaction between intellectual functioning and actuarial risk score. The results suggested that the Static-99R can be used across the range of intellectual functioning, albeit somewhat more cautiously for those at the lowest and highest end of the intellectual functioning distribution.     

The prevalence of mental disorders in a German sample of male incarcerated juvenile offenders

The current study investigated the prevalence of mental disorders among incarcerated juvenile offenders in Germany and sought to identify clinically relevant subgroups. In sum, 149 newly incarcerated male juvenile delinquents (M age = 19 years) were included. Diagnostic tools included the German version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version. The most prevalent diagnoses in the sample included conduct disorders (81%), Cluster B personality disorders (up to 62%), and substance-related disorders (up to 60%). Moreover, psychopathic features were found among 21% of the participants. Cluster analysis distinguished three subgroups among this group of young offenders. The most problematic consisted of juveniles with multiple psychopathology, including antisocial traits, personality pathology, higher scores on the Psychopathy Checklist, as well as multiple substance abuse. Study outcomes are discussed in light of their implications for the development of effective treatment for juvenile offenders.