A longitudinal analysis of the arrest-crime relationship: A further examination of the tipping effect

This study examines the contextual effect of arrest clearance rates, over time, on the arrest-crime relationship. The bivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses of monthly crime and arrest data for seven Pennsylvania cities for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft suggest that the deterrent effect of arrests on crime is probably limited to smaller cities whose police department are able to clear an appreciable proportion of crimes over time, through arrests.     

TRENDS IN VIOLENT CRIME AMONG EX-MENTAL PATIENTS

A central component of the public's conception of the mentally ill is that they are dangerous. This belief receives support from recent studies of the arrest rates of ex-mental patients which suggest that arrests for violent crimes have increased. In order to investigate this issue, samples were taken at two points in time. Analysis of arrest rates revealed that very few ex-mental patients were subsequently arrested for violent crimes, although these rates were higher and increasing faster than these of the general population. Mast significant were the findings that subsequent arrests were best explained by the number of prior arrests and that the percentage of patients with a history of criminal behavior has increased dramatically over time. The implications of these trends in violent crime among ex-mental patients for the perceived link between mental illness and violence and for the social control functions of society are discussed.     

Aggregation effects on male-to-female arrest rate ratios in New York State, 1972 to 1984

The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of data aggregation on a specification of the relationship between sex and arrest rate trends. The analysis focuses on the empirical implications when arrest data are aggregated across dimensions that are likely to affect the sex-crime relationship. The data for the analysis consist of 4,119,358 male and female adult arrests in New York State for the 13-year period ending in 1984. Results indicate that race, regional differences, and the legal seriousness of the arrest charge produce significantly different patterns of sex convergence across time. On the basis of these results, we suggest serious limitations in past analyses of female crime rates and in the value of Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data for addressing theoretically relevant questions concerning the social correlates of official crime.     

Short-term trends in crime and delinquency: A comparison of UCR,NCS, and self-report data

This study examines short-term (five- to ten-year) trends in crime and juvenile delinquency using FBI Uniform Crime Reports data on arrests and offenses known to the police, National Crime Survey data on victimization, and National Youth Survey data on self-reported delinquency. The focus is on FBI Index offenses, but less serious offenses are also considered. FBI statistics indicate generally increasing rates of crime, while NCS and NYS data indicate stable and occasionally decreasing rates. Data on the self-reported incidence of delinquency are more compatible with arrest data than are data on the self-reported prevalence of delinquency, but the two self-report measures are more compatible with one another than with arrest data. Attempts to reconcile official statistics with victimization surveys and self-report studies seem unlikely to overcome the differences among the sources when trends in crime, rather than rates of crime at a single time, are considered.     

CRIMES,CRIME RATES,ARRESTS, AND ARREST RATIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DETERRENCE THEORY*

The relationship between crimes and arrests is one of the central issues in deterrence theory. There are several conceptual difficulties in attempting to assess whether arrests deter crimes or the number of crimes determine the number of arrests. These problems are compounded when rates are used to measure both variables. The issue is whether criminals respond to arrests or the police respond to changes in crime. The present analysis compares regression results when the variables are measured both as rates and raw numbers for three offenses: homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results indicate that arrests follow crimes. This suggests the need to reexamine some studies that argue that criminals’perceptions of arrest rates are an indication of deterrence.     

PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL CAPACITY,HOMELESSNESS, AND CRIME AND ARREST RATES*

As a result of developments in pharmacology, stricter standards for involuntary commitment, and changes in public expenditures, there has been a dramatic decline in the capacity of public psychiatric hospitals to maintain America's most severely mentally ill. Psychiatric deinstitutionalization has led to an increased presence of persons with mental illness in urban areas, many “falling through the cracks” of community‐based services. This is hypothesized to have contributed to homelessness, crime, and arrests. Individual‐level research has documented disproportionate and increasing numbers of mentally ill persons in jails and prisons. It has also found higher rates of violence and arrest among persons with mental illness compared to the general population. This study takes a macro‐level social control approach and examines the relationships between psychiatric hospital capacity, homelessness, and crime and arrest rates using a sample of eighty‐one U.S. cities. I find that public psychiatric hospital capacity has a statistically significant negative effect on crime and arrest rates, and that hospital capacity affects crime and arrest rates in part, through its impact on homelessness. In addition, I find no crime‐reducing effect of private and general psychiatric hospital capacity.     

A CENTURY OF CRIME IN TORONTO: GENDER,CLASS, AND PATTERNS OF SOCIAL CONTROL, 1859 TO 1955 *

A great deal of attention has been focused on the nature and extent of contemporary gender differences in criminality and, especially, recent increases in female crime rates. The failure to examine the relation among gender roles, social control mechanisms, and crime rates within a broad historical context, however, has contributed to several shortcomings and misconceptions in current research and theorizing. Results of a time-series analysis of male and female arrests in Toronto from 1859 to 1955 reveal an overall decline in male and female rates, as well as an overriding similarity in long-term patterns of male and female arrest rates for different categories of offenses In particular, the preponderance of public order arrests for males and females strongly confirms the enduring relation between social class and official criminality, regardless of gender. To explain the long-term reduction in female arrest rates, qualitative data are used to illustrate the historically contingent relation between gender roles and changes in formal and informal structures of social control. The findings point to the prominent role of “Yrst-wave feminists” in changing the forms of both formal and informal controls on women, which contributed to a sharp decline in female arrest rates during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.     

Apprehension productivity of police in large U. S. cities

The apprehension productivity of police in a sample of large U.S. cities was analyzed to determine the variations in apprehension rate between cities and within cities, over time, using Part I arrests per sworn officer as an indicator of arrest productivity. It was found that wide variations exist, both between and within cities over time, when arrest productivity is measured by that ratio. When comparing cities, the range in that measure went from a high of 12.06 to a low of 2.18. Changes within cities over the time period 1968 through 1973 varied from as much as a 47.7 percent increase to a 39.4 percent decrease. An analysis was performed to determine whether crime workload (reported Part I crimes) or police resources (sworn officers) had the greater influence on the generation of arrests. Because of multicollinearity between the variables, it was not possible to conclude which had the greater influence.     

THE IMPACT OF ORDER‐MAINTENANCE POLICING ON NEW YORK CITY HOMICIDE AND ROBBERY RATES: 1988‐2001*

Local officials and national observers have attributed the New York City drop in violent crime during the 1990s to the aggressive enforcement of public order, but relevant research is limited and yields contrasting conclusions regarding the effects of order‐maintenance policing (OMP) on violent crime trends in New York City. The current study investigates the effects of order‐maintenance arrests on precinct‐level robbery and homicide trends in New York City with more reliable crime and arrest data, longer time series, and more extensive controls for other influences than used in prior research. We find statistically significant but small crime‐reduction effects of OMP and conclude that the impact of aggressive order enforcement on the reduction in homicide and robbery rates in New York City during the 1990s was modest at best.     

Age structure and crime rates: The conflicting evidence

Because arrest rates are especially high for teenagers and young adults, criminologists have long contended that age structure changes affect crime trends. In recent years, however, this belief has been drawn into question because crime has not declined even though high-crime age groups have shrunk. We argue that the age/crime relationship is probably exaggerated because the high arrest rates for younger persons are due partly to their lesser ability to escape arrest, younger persons commit more group crime, and the age structure of victims should be taken into account. We then review 90 studies that regress crime rates on age structure; only a small minority consistently finds significant relationships. Because of methodological problems in this research, one cannot conclude that the age/crime relationship does not exist, but the weight of evidence shows that forecasts based on demographic trends are not likely to be helpful.     

Crimes,arrests, and elections: Predicting winners and losers

Political candidates are frequently identified as being either “law and order” advocates or “soft” on crime; however, the importance of actual arrest and crime levels on election outcomes has not been examined empirically. One particular set of candidates for whom arrest and crime rates might be expected to be predictive is publicly elected law enforcement officials. Using 1976 Florida County Sheriff election data, this article examines the capacity for discriminating between winning and losing incumbent sheriffs by using county arrest and crime data in association with socioeconomic and political information. The findings show that a significant discrimination is obtained (significant = 0.009, canonical correlation = 0.59, and 76 percent of the counties were correctly classified) and that crimes and arrests are significant factors in determining the outcome of sheriff elections. The results indicate that although traditional political factors, such as party affiliation and number of terms in office, and socioeconomic factors, such as income, density, and unemployment rates, do well in discriminating winning from losing candidates, a sheriff-election model must also incorporate crime and arrest information, particularly information on murder and rape.     

TIME TRENDS AND AGE TRENDS IN ARRESTS AND SELF-REPORTED ILLEGAL BEHAVIOR*

National estimates of time trends and age trends in self-reported illegal behavior in the United States are compared with corresponding figures for arrests. The self-report data are from Monitoring the Future, an annual national survey of high school seniors. The analysis of time trends covers 1975 through 1985 for a sample of over 3,000 respondents per year, studied at a constant age. The analysis of age trends covers ages 17 through 23 for samples of 300 to 1,200 per year. Both self-report and arrest measures reveal substantial declines in illegal behavior throughout this age span, with the exception of arrests for assault. Both methods also indicate that rates of assault increased from 1975 through 1985, a finding that has not previously been reported. Time trends for other offenses were erratic.     

On the Limits of Social Control: Structural Deterrence and the Policing of “Suppressible” Crimes

The present study examined the relationships between patterns of police arrests and subsequent variations in robbery, burglary, and aggravated assault in New York City police precincts from 1989 to 1998. Grounded in the structural deterrence theoretical perspective, and using a two‐stage fixed‐effects statistical framework, the study found that while controlling for indicators of social disorganization, increases in arrest vigor (i.e., arrests per officer for violent crimes in each precinct and raw arrest counts) predicted decreases in robbery and burglary, but that the relationships were non‐linear: as arrest vigor increased, robbery and burglary crime decreased; when arrest thresholds were reached, however, both robbery and burglary crime rates became positively associated with arrest aggressiveness. Conversely, variations in aggressive arrest patterns had no significant effect on aggravated assault, supporting the suppressible crimes arguments that primarily economically motivated crimes, and those that tend to occur in public settings, are most likely deterred by aggressive police practices.     

National trends in female arrests, 1960–1990: Assessment and recommendations for research

Trends in female criminality from 1960 to 1990 are examined. The main focus is UCR arrest statistics but other sources of evidence are also used. Major findings include the following: (1) relative to males, the profile of the female offender has not changed; and (2) the principal change in the female percentage of arrests involves the overall rise in property crime, especially minor thefts and frauds. The effects of broad-based legal and societal trends on female criminality are discussed and an agenda for research on the issue of female crime trends is proposed.     

Sex-Based Predictors of Male and Female Property Crime Arrest Rates: Disadvantage and Drug Use

A large body of research has considered the relationship between crime and structural indicators. However, despite trends in the gender gap in offending, fewer studies have separately examined the effects of structural variables on both male and female offending. The present study examined that question through a macro-level examination of property crime across large U.S. cities using data from the Uniform Crime Report and the American Community Survey. The predictors included theoretically supported indicators of disadvantage and drug accessibility/use that were disaggregated by sex. Although the findings indicated some similarities in predictors of male and female arrest rates, they highlighted some important differences as well.     

Are Trends in Specialization Across Arrests Explained by Changes in Specialization Occurring with Age?

The current work uses a sample of serious offenders (N = 2,086) to test the extent to which variation in specialization with age accounts for trends in specialization across arrests. Analyses show that controls for age do not have a large influence on trends across arrest in drug offense specialization or trends across arrest in miscellaneous offense specialization. In contrast, results show that controls for age do influence trends in specialization across arrests for violent offenses and for property offenses. For both of these offense types, trends in specialization across arrests prior to controls for age were positive, while trends in specialization across arrests after controls for age were negative. Results show that many of the trends in specialization across arrests found in the earlier literature are likely influenced by changes in specialization occurring with age.     

Twenty years of homicide and robbery in Chicago: The impact of the city's changing racial and age composition

Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) arrest and offense data for Chicago for 1960 to 1980 and population data from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses are used to assess the extent to which demographic changes help explain trends in the city's homicide and robbery arrests. The results indicate that a changing racial composition contributed to changes in the age composition of Chicago's population as well as to changes in the homicide rate. Age-specific analysis by race and gender suggests that as much as 24% of the total increase in homicide arrests and 45% of the increase in robbery arrests (from 1962 to 1980) can be attributed to an increase in the number of nonwhite men in the population. Increasedrates of arrest of nonwhite men appear to account for large parts of the increases in homicide and robbery arrests, with increased rates for white men and nonwhite women also accounting for some of these increases. The paper closes with a discussion of the issues raised by these trends for Chicago and other urban areas.Revision of a paper presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Cincinnati.     

Disentangling the Crime-arrest Relationship: The Influence of Social Context

Drawing on the economic and conflict perspectives of crime control, as well as insights from the tipping effect literature, the present investigation examines the extent to which the social context within which potential offenders operate tempers the macro-level, reciprocal relationship between crime and arrests. We use autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to assess the extent to which the April 2001 race-related riot in Cincinnati, Ohio conditions the reciprocal relationship between property crime and arrests for the entire city and disaggregated by police district. Consistent with a majority of prior longitudinal studies, our analyses for the entire length of the times series reveal no evidence of an association between our measures of crime and arrest, regardless of the level of spatial aggregation. In contrast to the results from our baseline models, the post-riot transfer function models indicate that there is a reciprocal association between crime and arrests that is contingent upon the social context. The implications of our findings for the further study of the reciprocal relationship between crime and arrests are discussed.     

Crime in Indian country: Another “trail of tears”

This article explores the status of crime among the American Indian population. Quantitative information regarding Indian offenses and arrest is presented and placed into the large spectrum of social problems afflicting Indian society. Some quantitative comparisons are made with a similar study conducted in 1964.Trend analyses were performed, and projections are provided relevant to total, adult, and juvenile Indian arrest; rates of arrest for Total, UCR Part I, and alcohol-related offenses are also given. Indian crime data are compared with those of other ethnic groups. The Indian propensity for arrests involving alcohol-related offenses is discussed in detail.The frequency of crimes on- and off-reservation is analyzed, particularly with respect to violent crimes; data are examined to determine the most frequent types of police contacts that Indian offenders experience.     

The effect of a curfew law on juvenile crime in Washington,D.C.

Juvenile curfew laws were a popular intervention to combat juvenile crime during the 1980s and 1990s. An experimental replication design was used to examine the impact of the Washington, D.C. “Juvenile Curfew Act of 1995.” Juvenile arrest data were analyzed using a two-standard-deviation-band approach, t-test, and trend analysis. The results, consistent with previous studies, revealed that the curfew law did not reduce total juvenile arrests. Several flaws inherent in curfew laws, as well as implications for research and policy, are discussed.