非线性GM(1,1)模型在城市安全事故预测中的应用

为深度挖掘城市安全事故的变化规律,建立非线性GM(1,1)模型对其进行预测研究。以深圳市逐季度安全事故起数为研究对象,使用2016年第一季度至2018年第一季度安全事故起数进行模型的数据拟合,利用2018年第二季度至第四季度安全事故起数检验模型的预测精度,并与传统GM(1,1)模型的模拟结果进行对比,以检验模型的有效性和准确性。结果表明:非线性GM(1,1)模型的拟合优度和预测精度更高,针对性和可操作性强,适用于预测城市安全事故的发生趋势。     

基于ARMA模型的我国财产类犯罪人数预测研究

在定量犯罪学的语境下,以《中国法律年鉴》全国检察机关决定批捕和自行决定批捕的侵犯财产类犯罪人数之和作为我国财产类犯罪人数的统计衡量指标,做出了1986-2010年全国财产类犯罪人数变迁的时间序列.通过时间序列分析法和计算机软件EViews5.0,对时间序列逐步进行平稳性检验、独立性检验,建立了我国财产类犯罪的ARMA(1,10)拟合预测模型.一方面,预测分析表明2011年我国财产类犯罪人数的点预测结果为387914,区间预测结果为[334369,451351](单位:人);另一方面,拟合精度分析证实,建立的模型通过了统计学检验,模型整体显著,预测精度较高,是一个优良的时间序列预测模型,对我国财产类犯罪定量实证预测研究能起到良好的借鉴作用.     

基于PCA-IPSO-GNN模型的铁路月度客运量预测模型研究

铁路月度客运量预测是铁路客运组织的基础,是铁路路网规划和运营管理的前提条件。本文提出了基于PCA-IPSO-GNN模型的铁路月度客运量预测模型,利用主成分分析(PCA)对铁路月度客运量影响因素进行综合分析,将分析结果作为灰色神经网络(GNN)的输入,同时采用改进的粒子群优化算法(IPSO)优化GNN的白化参数,进而得到更为准确的铁路月度客运量预测值。经过实例验证和比较,PCA-IPSO-GNN预测模型具有较高的精度,可以满足铁路月度客运量的预测需求。     

基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的交通事故预测

为研究我国交通事故发展趋势,在已有事故预测技术基础上,根据2009-2013年全国道路交通事故发生起数、死亡人数数据,建立了交通事故灰色GM(1,1)模型。运用MATLAB进行建模分析简化运算过程,并直观显示曲线拟合情况。预测结果显示:事故起数与死亡人数预测相对误差分别为e1=0.0023,e2=0.0040;小误差概率p均为1;后验差比值分别为C1=0.0524,C2=0.1082,预测精度均为一级,短期预测精度高,能很好地预测交通事故的发展趋势。     

森林火灾灭火物资优化配置模型研究

目前,国内外研究应急资源优化配置的文献不多。本文在阅读已有森林火灾文献的基础上,通过预测森林火灾应急物资需求,考虑灭火所需的条件,提出了一个以过火面积最小为目标函数的森林火灾灭火物资优化配置模型。最后,文章对模型进行了运用,证明了模型的可行性。     

事件相关电位客观评估视敏度的法医学应用

目的研究不同视敏度水平的事件相关电位(event-related potential,ERP)成分特征,以期为视敏度的客观评定提供理论依据。方法选取16名被试进行单眼刺激。要求被试眼平视前方屏幕,注意屏幕中央的视觉刺激并对朝向不同的刺激进行计数。屏幕的中央会显示3种不同视敏度水平所对应的视标刺激图片,分别记录其ERP结果。结果 (1)阈上视敏度水平一致刺激的P_1振幅高于阈值、阈下视敏度水平一致刺激的P_1振幅,阈值和阈下视敏度水平一致刺激的P_1振幅差异无统计学意义,冲突刺激与一致刺激在3种视敏度水平的趋势类似。(2)阈上和阈值视敏度水平都出现了潜伏期在340~500 ms内的P300成分;阈下视敏度水平在相应的时间窗内无P300成分。3种视敏度水平的P_(300)振幅差异有统计学意义,振幅由大到小分别为阈上、阈值、阈下视敏度水平。结论 ERP技术可以成为法医学客观评定视敏度的新手段。     

隧道建设和运营期火灾原因及预防措施探讨

对近年来国内外89起公路、铁路和地铁隧道火灾案例进行分析,隧道火灾的主要致因分布与隧道的类型和工程阶段密切相关,建设期3类交通隧道火灾起因均主要为违章用火,运营维护期火灾起因与隧道类型相关。采用事故树分析(FTA)原理对隧道火灾进行演绎分析,获得不同类型隧道在不同工程阶段时隧道火灾与各类基本事件的逻辑关系式。在隧道火灾起因分析的基础上,从物和人两方面对隧道火灾的防范措施提出了建议,以期对我国隧道交通的消防安全设计、火灾防治研究及其发展提供参考。     

安全疏散研究综述

火灾是当今世界严重威胁人们生命财产的多发性灾害之一。研究建筑结构火灾中人员的安全疏散,解明建筑火灾中人在决定逃生之前的行为规律,逃生过程的行动规律,对于建筑性能化防火设计、建筑防火交全逃生管理与教育具有重要意义。对国内外火灾研究学者关于建筑结构物安全疏散研究的历史沿革与现状进行综合评述,对我国今后开展此项研究的课题做出预测与展望。     

城市工业火灾风险评估

火灾是对人类危害最为严重的灾害之一,特别是城市工业火灾造成巨大的经济损失与人员伤亡。本文介绍了火灾风险评估的几种模型,评述了这些模型的优缺点。在分析城市工业火灾发生原因的基础上,建立了城市工业火灾评估指标体系,并运用模糊综合判断评估方法对城市工业的火灾安全进行了风险评估,通过评估可得出该工业所属的安全等级,使管理者及时采取措施,以减少工业火灾危险性。     

基于FDS的半地下室烟气运动规律研究

地下空间的利用主要集中在地下交通、地下商业、地下车库、地下娱乐场所以及城市防灾设施(如人防工程)等方面。本文针对地下建筑的火灾特点和原因,以某大学图书馆(半)地下室作为研究对象,采用流体动力学软件FDS进行场模拟,设置两个火灾场景,并设置五个测点,来研究不同时间不同区域的温度和能见度的变化过程,对该地下室烟气运动规律进行模拟分析研究。得到结论:采编编目室的可用安全疏散时间(ASET)为131s,各测点的温度在较短的时间内快速震荡上升,达到并超过人体可承受的安全阈值60℃,最终趋于一个较为稳定的值。     

火铳的司法检验与鉴定

为了解决在司法实践中对“火铳”的认识,以便时案件的公正办理,通过对“火铳”的检验研究,阐述了“火铳”是枪还是炮、火铳的内部构造与发射机理,及“内弹道理论计算法”的致伤力检验与鉴定的技术方法对“火铳”的检验和鉴定：客观、科学地表述了对“火铳”的检验鉴定结果,从而为打击持“火铳”犯罪的行为找到了科学依据,进一步维护了社会治安秩序。同样也为法庭提供了科学证据,维护了社会的和谐、稳定与公正。     

火灾损失的灰色模糊预测方法

对于火灾损失的预测,由于诸多不确定因素,导致火灾损失预测具有“部分信息已知,部分信息未知”的“小样本”、“贫信息”不确定性,同时,在进行预测时要用精确值来表示各种事件的概率显然是不切实际的,而用模糊数或预言变量来表示他们则显得更为合理。同时,由于存在时间这一变化基准,要综合考虑时间、成本、信息等要素对火灾损失预测的影响。鉴于这种原因,本文考虑火灾损失为贫信息不确定性、预测分析模糊的方法问题。     

Extent of burn lesions--an analysis of 68 burned cadavers]

The burned bodies (n = 68) autopsied at the Freiburg Institute of Forensic Medicine in the years 1996-2001 (until the end of February) were examined with regard to the extent of consumption by the fire using the classifications suggested by Eckert et al., Maxeiner, Glassman and Crow, and Gerling et al. Further classification parameters were exposure of the body cavities and amputation of extremities as a result of the fire. Most cases were accidental deaths (approximately 75%). The fires occurred mainly in buildings (57%) or vehicles (34%); in 6 cases the burning took place in the open air. In most cases the degree of consumption by the fire was slight to moderate. Only 15% of the burned bodies showed extensive destruction with severe loss of soft tissue and shrinking or amputation of the extremities. In one case the soft tissue was completely destroyed with fragmentation of the calcined skeletal remains. In bodies recovered from house fired the extent of consumption by the fire was usually less pronounced than in bodies retrieved from burned-out vehicles.     

The Legal Profession as a Social Process: A Theory on Lawyers and Globalization

This article proposes a processual theory of the legal profession. In contrast to the structural, interactional, and collective action approaches, this processual theory conceptualizes the legal profession as a social process that changes over space and time. The social process of the legal profession includes four components: (1) diagnostic struggles over professional expertise; (2) boundary work over professional jurisdictions; (3) migration across geographical areas and status hierarchies; and (4) exchange between professions and the state. Building on the processual theory and using China as a primary example, the author proposes a research agenda for studying lawyers and globalization that seeks to shift the focus of research from the legal elite to ordinary law practitioners, from global law firms to local law firms, and from advanced economies to emerging economies.     

Projecting crime rates: An age,period, and cohort model using ARIMA techniques

The object of this paper is to generate forecasts of U.S. index property and violent crimes. A three-step procedure is employed. First, the age-specific crime rates are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects. Then the period and cohort effects are characterized using regression and transfer functions, respectively. Finally, these statistical models are used to generate forecasts of the period and cohort effects and hence forecasted values of the age-specific crime rates. The forecasts are compared with existing data and found to be quite accurate. Issues concerning the forecast efficiency of this approach compared to that of others are also discussed.     

Metallographic analysis and fire dynamics simulation for electrical fire scene reconstruction

This study demonstrated the use of metallographic analysis and NIST's Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) program to identify the cause of an actual electrical fire. A severely carbonized steel plate and a cable with a bead were found inside a damaged switchboard from the debris of a factory fire. By metallographic analysis, the copper spatter on the steel plate was found to imply a short circuit has occurred and that this was the probable ignition source of the fire was supported by the presence of a small amount of copper oxide and by the cavities with the tree-like grain microstructures in the bead. The heat estimated to have been released per unit area of the switchboard in question (approximately 236.29 MJ/m(2)) served as key input data for applying the FDS simulation of the blaze. The simulation indicated that thermal insulation polyethylene (PE) played an important role in the rapid fire spread.     

国企为何需要行政化的治理——一种被忽略的效率性解释

在中国,国企的行政化治理是一种必然现实,是国家作为企业股东以及国企作为公共企业的本质使然。行政化治理虽然一直被视为有碍国企商业化,但亦有其"效率性"的一面,它有助于国企得到更多商业资源和商业利益。而且,国企的行政化治理是一种世界现象,差别只在于其目标以及内容、手段和方式的不同。由此,国企面对的关键问题,就不是如何脱离行政化治理的问题,而是如何改进行政化的治理、进行何种行政化治理的问题,即如何跳出原有产权调控模式,从利润导向走向公共导向,提升治理的透明度,让国企为国家发展、为一般社会公众谋取福利。中国一直追求将国企打造成独立的商事主体,追求国企营利目标的实现,这显然背离了作为公共企业的国企本质。应当撩开国企的商事面罩,重新回到公共企业以及公共企业法的改革道路上——以特别企业法而非商事公司法的方式调整国企的设立、运营和监管。     

Carbon monoxide-related deaths in a metropolitan county in the USA: an 11-year study

Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning as a cause of death is well documented in industrialized countries. The objective of this study was to compare demographic data in deaths due to accidents (in fires) and suicides in the same population between 1988 and 1998. Furthermore, the potential effect of a community wide education effort regarding safety in the home was assessed. Postmortem reports were reviewed for all deaths examined at the Office of the Cuyahoga County Coroner in Cleveland, OH, USA. During the study period, there were 209 accidental deaths due to fires in the home (6.5% of all accidents in the home) and 182 CO deaths by suicide (9.8% of all suicides). Demographic characteristics of the two groups differed: while males represented the majority of cases in both groups (55% of accidents, 70% suicides), race specific death rates were higher for whites than blacks (18/100,000 white, 3/100,000 black) in suicides compared with 29/100,000 deaths for blacks and 11/100,000 for whites in accidental cases. Fire deaths were prevalent in the young (0-9 years) and old (>60) whereas in the suicide group the age specific death rate was highest for those over 70 years. The majority of fire deaths occurred in the city of Cleveland but suicides were prevalent in the suburbs. More fire deaths occurred in December than any other month whereas more suicides occurred in April. In 1992, there was a community wide effort to provide free smoke detectors to residents in Cleveland. In 1992, there were 4.2/100,000 fire deaths in the city. This decreased to 0.6/100,000 in 1996, increased to 1.2/100,000 in 1997 followed by a decrease to 0.8/100,000 in 1998. This suggested that the program may have aided in decreasing these types of deaths. Deaths due to fires in the suburbs were <1/100,000 throughout the study period.     

超审限是违法行为

超审限是当前我国民事诉讼中常见的突出现象。作者认为这实质上是一种违法行为 ,危害甚大 ,不容忽视。文章分析这种现象产生的主客观原因 ,提出纠正超审限的新思路和具体措施。     

The forensic examination of structural fires in Victoria,Australia: Decision-making processes and impact on judicial outcomes

There is a body of published research that has evaluated the contribution of forensic science to the criminal justice system, but many disciplines of forensic science remain unexplored in this regard. The aim of this study was to examine the contribution that forensic fire examination services provide to criminal investigations and court processes in arson cases. Forensic fire examination services differ in a number of ways to the disciplines covered in previous research on the impact of forensic evidence on justice outcomes. Forensic fire examinations involve a combination of scene examination and laboratory analyses, and the results can provide critical evidence of whether an incident that has occurred is a criminal offence (i.e. whether a fire has occurred as the result of an act of arson). Forensic fire examination is also a discipline that has faced challenges and undergone development in recent decades regarding its scientific basis and the issue of contextual bias. In this study, data were collated for 273 structural fires that were examined by the forensic fire services in Victoria, Australia. In this jurisdiction, scene and laboratory forensic services are delivered within short time frames with a focus on providing impartial scientific and investigative services to assist criminal investigations conducted by police. The current dataset was highly skewed in terms of criminal justice outcomes and was not suitable for conducting the planned statistical analyses. Nonetheless, the pattern of findings obtained suggested that the inclusion of forensic evidence which supported the prosecution of arson may be associated with an increased likelihood of suspects being charged and defendants found guilty. Examination of the decision-making process of the forensic fire examiners has provided insight into the variety of evidence that is considered by forensic experts in reaching the important conclusion about the origin and cause of structural fires.