日本后福岛时期的核能政策研究

第二次世界大战后,日本把能源的稳定供给、廉价供应和环境保护视为能源政策追求的三大目标。基于发电成本可控、能源供给安全和缓解温室气体排放方面的优势,核能成为日本实现其能源政策目标的首选。福岛核事故后,日本政府被迫重新反思核能政策,围绕能源结构调整与核能政策前景等核心议题,"反核派"与"拥核派"展开激烈辩论。"反核派"从"福岛灾难"、核事故频发、核废料处理难题等方面提出反核的多重理由;"拥核派"则从能源、经济和政治视角阐释继续坚持核能发展的现实动因。后福岛时期核能发展的制约因素增加,核能发展充满不确定性,日本核能政策的前景取决于日本在提升核能安全、更新核安全文化和增强民众接受度方面的进展程度。     

试析日本重视发展核能的深层原因及其面临的挑战

<正>2011年日本爆发的福岛核泄漏事件并未阻止安倍内阁寻求发展核能的计划。2012年安倍执政后,日本开始逐渐重启关停的核电站,并积极走向海外开展核外交。降低化石燃料费用、促进经济发展、拓展核外交、维护减排形象和国家安全,是日本寻求发展核能的深层原因。不过,日本国内的反对声音、高昂的建设成本以及不健全的核安全文化,制约了其核能的进一步发展。     

核能发展与严守"核门"——由日本核爆炸引发的核安全思考

3月11日,日本福岛核电站在9级特大地震中遭受重创并发生核泄露,此次福岛核泄漏事故会不会继续升级?对中国公众健康和环境是否有影响?中国核工业设施安全性能如何?日本核泄漏给核能开发带来哪些警示?这都是需要我们在重灾过后需要深思的问题.     

战后日本核政策再探讨

根据外交解密档案和有关当事人回忆,由于国民强烈的反核感情和战后特殊的国际环境,战后日本的核政策表面上主张"和平利用"核能,倡导"无核三原则",加入《核不扩散条约》,没有公开制造核武器。然而,在和平利用名义下进行的核电开发,实际上从一开始就有明确的军事意图,与追求核武器"制造"能力的军事目的紧密结合,成为一个"核电"与"核武"互为表里的复合型政策体系。在该政策的推行过程中,日本还先后两次与美国签署"核密约",允许美国"运进"核武器,寻求美国的核保护伞,并在依赖美国核保护伞的背后,通过发展核电,行独立保持"制造"核武器潜在能力之实。     

后核时代变革

目前欧洲对核电站进行的压力测试仅仅是个开始,但只要测试仍自愿参与并处在经营者的控制之下,这种测试就不过是一种政治摆设。切尔诺贝利事故25年后,3月发生的福岛灾难为全世界敲响了警钟,提醒人们核能绝不是洁净、安全、价廉物美的能源选择。不幸的是,需要再次爆发核灾难才能引发核能应用领域的全新讨     

战机、炸弹均已到位,24年后"巴比伦行动"重演? 空军司令扬言轰炸伊朗核设施--透视以色列突击伊朗核设施计划

伊朗核问题的由来伊朗的核计划开始于20世纪50年代后期。当时伊朗巴列维王朝与美国及西方国家关系密切,核技术大部分从这些国家引进。1974年伊朗开始修建核电站等核能利用项目。1988年两伊战争结束后,伊朗开始经济重建,恢复和发展核能源成为一个重要议题。1992年伊俄签署《和平利用核能协议》。1995 年初,伊俄签署俄罗斯为伊朗建造4座商业用轻水核反应堆的合同。俄罗斯从1995年10 月开始帮助伊朗在布什尔建设两座核电站以及俄为伊核电站运转提供核燃料。     

媒体

正01中国核能发展迎来新机遇英《经济学人》9月24日在国际原子能大会期间,中国自主研发的小型反应堆ACP100成为会议关注的焦点之一。这是中国继自主研发核电产品华龙一号后,推出的又一款走向国际市场的核电产品。近几年来,中国正在计划扩大对核能的开发。1994年中国首家核电站投入商业运营,到现在已有36个核反应堆,在建的有20个。除此之外,另外4个已经得到官方批准,还有很多核反应堆还在计划建设阶段。中国计划到2030年,     

两岸核能安全合作初探

北京时间2011年3月11日下午1点46分，日本东北地区宫城县近海发生9．0级强烈地震。强震引发高达10米多的大海啸，席卷宫城、仙台、福岛等多个地区，并导致福岛第一核电站发生严重的核泄露事故。而是核辐射随即扩至全球，引发各国、各地区当局和公众不同程度的恐慌。     

美反伊政治与伊核问题前景

伊朗核问题和美伊关系进展,尽管更多涉及国际政治,但其重要障碍之一则是美国国内政治。除了内贾德执政的强硬伊朗时期,自霍梅尼逝世后至今的整个美伊关系更多是受美国和以色列国内政治的影响。这在2013年伊朗政治生态转向温和、伊核问题取得重大进展的背景下体现得尤其明显。以鲁哈尼当选伊朗总统、伊核第一阶段协议的签署和落实为标志,伊核问题和美伊关系显现出积极发展的态势。但这一积极进展却引发美国内反伊政治力量的更大反弹,来自美国商务部的新制裁方案和美国国内对更多制裁的激烈讨论,说明基于伊朗人质危机的反伊民意和犹太人团体的反伊游说仍是中短期内美国内反伊政治的主要来源。就现有趋势判断,反伊政治未必能够阻止第一阶段协议的落实和最终签署全面协议,但的确会成为美国取消对伊主要制裁的障碍。如果制裁不能取消,伊核问题的解决和美伊关系缓和将不具备持续下去的条件。在这一背景下,中国一方面需要继续为推动伊核问题的解决以及美伊关系适度缓和作出积极贡献,另一方面也需在发展与伊朗经济合作时持谨慎态度,特别是要充分虑及美国制裁所造成的长期消极影响。     

伊朗核协议能否有效执行?

正第四届核安全峰会将于2016年3月底至4月初在美国华盛顿举行。此次核峰会将继续讨论全球合作打击核恐怖主义的问题,并重点讨论各国可采取的应对措施,以最大限度地减少高浓缩铀的使用,确保核材料安全、打击核材料走私,预防核恐怖主义活动等。核能的开发利用给人类社会发展带来新的动力,极大增强了人类认识世界和改造世界的能力,但     

核武器与冷战时期美国对苏联的政策

冷战时期,作为维护国家安全的重要工具,核武器在美国对苏联的政策中发挥了重要作用。美国政府不仅在战后初期坚持核保密政策,而且还多次利用核武器对苏联施加压力,以迫使其在政治上和外交上做出让步,并制定了一系列针对苏联的核作战计划。与此同时,为了保持对苏联的核优势地位,对苏联构成有效的威慑,美国政府不断加强核力量的建设,使得美苏之间的核军备竞赛愈演愈烈,并使双方走到了核战争的边缘,从而使得美苏决策者都认识到,限制核军备竞赛对双方至关重要,美苏关系也由此进入了相对缓和的时期。及至20世纪70年代,限制战略武器谈判成为美国对苏政策的重要内容。     

The moral purpose of US power: neoconservatism in the age of Obama

The ‘neoconservative moment’ is widely assumed to have come and gone with the George W. Bush administration. This article argues, however, that the hope that the neoconservative chapter in US foreign policy will be definitively closed under Barack Obama's administration is unlikely to be realized in practice, owing to the continuing influence that neoconservatives are able to exercise over national debates regarding the ‘moral’ use of US power in order to shape the international environment. While the moral agenda of the ‘neocons’ is often misconceived as simply a mask for the naked pursuit of the United States' material and strategic interests, this article demonstrates that this misrepresents the rationale that underpins the neoconservative perspective. Exploring the re-articulation of morality in neoconservative thought reveals the nexus that both links the neoconservative domestic agenda for political change to its foreign policy goals and also provides a framework for understanding the ‘staying power’ that neoconservatism continues to exhibit. Although the Obama presidency is widely heralded as a repudiation of this agenda, the neoconservative conception of the United States as a moral power is deeply rooted in US foreign policy traditions and is domestically allied to traditional expressions of social conservatism, which enables neoconservative ideas to continue to resonate in US foreign policy debates.     

Obama and the Palestinians

America is more a creed than a nation. Our promise has always been that all individuals, despite race, religion or gender, have the equal chance to make it. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as president of the United States is thus a “soft power” coup for America's global image, which had lost its luster during the Bush years. Obama is the anti‐Bush who will lead by the power of example instead of the example of power. Yet, there are real limits. Can the power of example stop the North Korean or Iranian nuclear programs? Can it stop jihadists bent on establishing a new Caliphate across South Asia? Can it limit China's ambitions as the new power in Asia? In this section commentators from across the world offer their views.     

Obama, Look East

America is more a creed than a nation. Our promise has always been that all individuals, despite race, religion or gender, have the equal chance to make it. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as president of the United States is thus a “soft power” coup for America's global image, which had lost its luster during the Bush years. Obama is the anti‐Bush who will lead by the power of example instead of the example of power. Yet, there are real limits. Can the power of example stop the North Korean or Iranian nuclear programs? Can it stop jihadists bent on establishing a new Caliphate across South Asia? Can it limit China's ambitions as the new power in Asia? In this section commentators from across the world offer their views.     

Muslims Will Be Disappointed

America is more a creed than a nation. Our promise has always been that all individuals, despite race, religion or gender, have the equal chance to make it. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as president of the United States is thus a “soft power” coup for America's global image, which had lost its luster during the Bush years. Obama is the anti‐Bush who will lead by the power of example instead of the example of power. Yet, there are real limits. Can the power of example stop the North Korean or Iranian nuclear programs? Can it stop jihadists bent on establishing a new Caliphate across South Asia? Can it limit China's ambitions as the new power in Asia? In this section commentators from across the world offer their views.     

Finally, Russia Sees America as It Really Is

America is more a creed than a nation. Our promise has always been that all individuals, despite race, religion or gender, have the equal chance to make it. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as president of the United States is thus a “soft power” coup for America's global image, which had lost its luster during the Bush years. Obama is the anti‐Bush who will lead by the power of example instead of the example of power. Yet, there are real limits. Can the power of example stop the North Korean or Iranian nuclear programs? Can it stop jihadists bent on establishing a new Caliphate across South Asia? Can it limit China's ambitions as the new power in Asia? In this section commentators from across the world offer their views.     

If Americans Accept Obama, They Can Accept a Rising China

America is more a creed than a nation. Our promise has always been that all individuals, despite race, religion or gender, have the equal chance to make it. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as president of the United States is thus a “soft power” coup for America's global image, which had lost its luster during the Bush years. Obama is the anti‐Bush who will lead by the power of example instead of the example of power. Yet, there are real limits. Can the power of example stop the North Korean or Iranian nuclear programs? Can it stop jihadists bent on establishing a new Caliphate across South Asia? Can it limit China's ambitions as the new power in Asia? In this section commentators from across the world offer their views.     

Obama: The First Mestizo Leader North of the Border

America is more a creed than a nation. Our promise has always been that all individuals, despite race, religion or gender, have the equal chance to make it. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as president of the United States is thus a “soft power” coup for America's global image, which had lost its luster during the Bush years. Obama is the anti‐Bush who will lead by the power of example instead of the example of power. Yet, there are real limits. Can the power of example stop the North Korean or Iranian nuclear programs? Can it stop jihadists bent on establishing a new Caliphate across South Asia? Can it limit China's ambitions as the new power in Asia? In this section commentators from across the world offer their views.     

Afghanistan Needs Teachers and Clean Water as Much as More Troops

America is more a creed than a nation. Our promise has always been that all individuals, despite race, religion or gender, have the equal chance to make it. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as president of the United States is thus a “soft power” coup for America's global image, which had lost its luster during the Bush years. Obama is the anti‐Bush who will lead by the power of example instead of the example of power. Yet, there are real limits. Can the power of example stop the North Korean or Iranian nuclear programs? Can it stop jihadists bent on establishing a new Caliphate across South Asia? Can it limit China's ambitions as the new power in Asia? In this section commentators from across the world offer their views.     

White Paper Prepared for The Secretary of Defense Task Force on DoD Nuclear Weapons Management: Tradeoffs and Paradoxes: Terrorism,Deterrence and Nuclear Weapons

This article was written at the request of the Secretary of Defense Task Force on DoD Nuclear Weapons Management. While this analysis suggests that certain types of terrorists can be deterred from certain types of attacks, it is less optimistic about the use of nuclear weapons in a terrorist deterrent strategy. A broad approach to deterrence may be effective against certain types of terrorist groups and attacks, making it crucially important to disaggregate the terrorist threat when setting policy. The article goes on to address two types of terrorist groups with a “global reach” that pose a serious threat to the United States: non-state actors driven by doctrines permitting catastrophic attacks and state-sponsored groups capable of carrying out catastrophic attacks. The analysis reveals a number of previously unappreciated tradeoffs and paradoxes associated with the deterrence of terrorists.