伊朗核问题会峰回路转吗?

美欧与伊朗在"伊核问题"上针锋相对、互不退让,经过10个多月的激烈争斗后,于6月初向伊朗提出了一个条件更加优惠的一揽子解决新方案.新方案在很大程度上反映出美欧,特别是美国对伊朗强硬立场的无奈,但同时也是布什政府以退为进,争取主动,为组建对伊朗制裁的广泛国际统一阵线新的外交努力.新方案虽使伊朗与美欧紧张关系得到短暂的缓和,但因"伊核问题"涉及到双方的根本利益,双方都难以做出实质性的让步,因此,估计双方的斗争还会持续,中东海湾地区围绕着"伊核问题"的紧张局势难以在短期内消除.     

伊朗核问题的症结与中国的立场

近两年来,伊朗与美欧在"伊核问题"上的斗争愈演愈烈,造成海湾地区阴云密布,局势空前紧张."伊核问题"现已成为重大的国际政治斗争的焦点问题,牵动着世界主要大国的互动关系,其发展趋势将直接对中东海湾地区安全局势的发展、世界和平与发展的走向产生重大影响.     

中东乱局持久化背景下欧盟中东战略的调整及困境

2011年"阿拉伯之春"爆发以来,中东地区陷入整体性的大动荡之中。美国特朗普政府上台后,在伊朗核问题和巴以问题上出现了极大退步。美伊针锋相对、互不相让,一度走到战争边缘;叙利亚、伊拉克、也门及利比亚战事频繁,导致中东难民不断涌入欧洲,这些都给欧盟带来了巨大压力。在此背景下,欧盟不得不对其中东战略作出相应调整。当前的欧盟中东战略表现出更加务实、军民手段并重和更为独立等新特点。尽管欧盟中东战略调整在一定程度上维护了自身核心利益,但也面临一些挑战和困境。虽然美欧在中东龃龉不断,但欧盟中东战略仍将在美欧盟友关系的框架下不断演进。英国"脱欧"有助于欧盟消除内部主要分歧,中东乱局亦未陷入完全失控,这都为欧盟中东战略加速调整与成型创造了契机。     

俄欧关系:恢复之路艰难多

2018年5月以来,俄罗斯与欧盟的关系迅速回暖,双方在维护伊朗核问题全面协议方面基本持相同立场,在叙利亚问题上俄欧双方也存在不少共识。虽然欧盟没有解除对俄罗斯的经济制裁,但俄欧经济合作也在升温,俄欧不顾美国的反对,决定继续推进"北溪-2"天然气管道项目。俄欧在乌克兰问题上的分歧依旧存在,这一影响俄欧关系的主要因素不消除,俄欧关系的改善会大打折扣,短期内很难恢复到乌克兰危机前的水平。     

美国退出伊朗核协议的动因及对中东局势的影响

美国总统特朗普2018年5月8日宣布,美国将退出伊朗核协议,称其是一个"全方位的失败",并宣布重启因伊朗核协议而豁免的对伊制裁,旨在削弱伊朗在中东地区日益上升的影响力,扶持美地区盟友,以最低代价维系其对中东局势的主导权。美国此举或使伊朗国内保守力量上升,重回与美对抗轨道,并将导致中东局势更趋恶化。     

六国与伊朗重启核谈:开局良好,前景难料

2012年4月14日,美、英、法、德、俄、中六国与伊朗围绕伊朗核问题的新一轮谈判在伊斯坦布尔举行.与会各方对此次对话给予积极评价,并同意5月23日在伊拉克首都巴格达继续会谈.在美西方与伊朗软硬对抗轮番升级、动武传闻甚嚣尘上之际,新一轮谈判在"十年来罕见的积极氛围"中开局,给人带来紧张形势有所转圜的感觉,伊核问题似乎向着缓和方向发展.然而,美西方与伊朗在暂停铀浓缩活动、解除制裁等核心问题上分歧巨大,双方互信严重缺失,巴格达会谈取得实质性进展的前景不容乐观.     

美欧关系与国际格局--周弘研究员访谈

伊拉克战争后,美欧关系矛盾的一面显得十分突出。美欧关系的变化对世界多极化趋势发展有重大影响。美欧矛盾的深层次原因是什么?美欧在历史、政治、经济、文化及社会发展模式等方面有哪些差异?这些差异在多大程度上,又以何种方式对美欧关系产生影响?如何认识美欧矛盾的性质及其对国际格局的影响?带着这些问题,我们采访了中国社会科学院欧洲研究所所长周弘研究员。下面是她与本刊记者的谈话。     

美国会对伊朗动武吗?

1979年伊朗暴发伊斯兰革命后,美国与其绝交,从那以后它总是揪着伊朗不放,欲置之死地而后快.美国先是指责伊朗扣压其外交官作人质和输出伊斯兰革命,称它是"无赖国家",并对其进行长期制裁;"9.11"事件后,美国又把伊朗与"基地"组织强行挂钩,将其纳入"邪恶轴心";美国还谴责伊朗支持伊拉克什叶派制造反美动乱;最近美国又对伊朗的核问题大做文章,指责它在核计划上向国际社会撒谎,以和平利用核能作为幌子,暗中却在研制核武器,可能会在3-5年内制造出一枚核弹,严重威胁美和其它国家安全等等.伊朗坚决否认美国的上述指责,并进行针锋相对的反驳,甚至表示要生产离心机.     

鲁哈尼当选后伊朗内外政策的新走向

在伊朗最近举行的大选中，温和（也称务实）派人物鲁哈尼出乎人们意料在首轮选举中击败所有强硬保守派竞选对手，当选伊朗第11届总统。鲁哈尼承诺，为摆脱伊朗目前面临的内外困境，执政后对内将会稳步地推进政治“变革”，努力营造一个“宽容”的社会氛围；对外将努力改善与美欧和地区国家的紧张关系，     

美欧矛盾的性质及其未来趋势

当前美欧互"怼",在一系列重大问题上产生了公开而激烈的冲突。美欧矛盾是世界大变局在美欧关系这一局部的具体展开,是美欧各自对世界大变局的政策反应,有其深刻的观念基础、利益基础和国际观基础,因而当前美欧矛盾是结构性矛盾,而不限于事务性冲突。"特朗普冲击"与"特朗普主义"加剧了美欧矛盾,使美欧矛盾以更激烈的方式展开,但特朗普上台只是美欧矛盾加剧的催化剂,而非根本原因。未来美欧矛盾"渐行渐远"有必然性。无论如何,美欧关系的"蜜月期"已经日过中天,类似冷战时期的美欧军事同盟和冷战后的美欧"价值观同盟"难以再现,这将深刻影响国际格局与大国关系。     

A Comparative Study of U.S. and Iranian Counter-ISIS Strategies

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)'s activities now go beyond insurgency and conventional operations in the territories it controls in the Middle East. It poses a threat to U.S. interests and allies in Europe, and a serious threat to Iran and its borders. While Washington formed an international coalition encompassing many European and Middle Eastern states to combat ISIS, it only coordinates some tactical and operation-level efforts with a key player on the ground: Iran. For its part, Iran is leveraging similar counter-ISIS tools as those adopted by the United States, despite their strategies differing fundamentally.     

伊核问题及其对地区和大国关系的影响

伊朗的核能力建设既有和平的一面，也涉及核不扩散问题，但即使伊朗不突破红线，其核能力积累也具有深远的地缘政治影响，包括改变中东地区激进和温和力量的对比态势、诱发美国加强联阿孤伊战略以及为地区大国土耳其扩大影响提供平台等。在全球层次上，大国围绕伊核问题的互动并不是它们相互关系之外的独立内容，而是21世纪初期兼具合作和斗争双重特点的大国关系的重要组成部分、集中体现和自然延伸。     

The Iran nuclear deal: winning a little,losing a lot

Iran’s nuclear programme had for more than a decade become a controversial issue between Iran and the West; it had even threatened to develop into a military confrontation between Teheran and its arch adversary, Washington. The issue was finally resolved in an agreement, after more than a year of negotiations, between the two sides in Geneva in July 2015. This was hailed as a ‘breakthrough’ and a ‘win-win’ for both parties. It is argued here that the nuclear deal has made Iran’s nuclear programme almost inoperable, and pointed out that many members of Congress are vehemently against the deal; the next administration may not honour it or may revise it. The high costs of sanctions against Iran to the sanctioning countries are also examined, with a comparison made between the meagre concessions that Iran will get and the huge concessions that the West will receive under the deal. Furthermore, Iran has acceded to very intrusive inspection of some of its military sites. It is contended that, if the Iranians hope the agreement will soon bring about the resolution of other thorny regional and international issues that exist between Teheran and Washington, they are very likely to be disappointed.     

Iran's nuclear programme and the west

Judged by the media reports and statements by US officials in recent months, the USA is seriously considering, or at least thinking about, taking military action against Iran, if it refuses to forgo its legal right to enrich uranium for its nuclear energy programme, which Washington claims is a cover for making nuclear weapons. Iran denies the allegation. The effects of such an attack on Iranian society and the political ramifications beyond Iran's borders are discussed and analysed here. The irony of the present dispute between the West and Iran is that, for three decades up to the Iranian revolution in 1979, the Europeans and Americans helped, in fact earnestly encouraged, Iran in the development of its nuclear programme. The article explains the reasons for the failure of talks between Iran and the European trio to resolve the issue. It argues that, even if the question of Iran's nuclear programme were resolved, the 27-year conflict between the two countries would be unlikely to end in the near future. For Washington the name of the game is ‘regime change’ in Iran, either through military means or through fomenting internal chaos, hoping for implosion. But considering the political and military difficulties that Washington is experiencing in Afghanistan and Iraq, achieving either of these options is highly problematic.     

The changing nature of the transatlantic link: U.S. approaches and implications for Central and Eastern Europe

This article examines the changing security, economic and diplomatic components of the transatlantic link, with a particular focus on Washington's approach and implications for Central and Eastern Europe. The United States continues to play an essential role as security underwriter in the region, but the military dimension of the transatlantic relationship is transforming and will result in greater burdens on Europeans. Economic links between the U.S. and Central Europe are developing more strongly than generally understood, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is likely to drive both political and economic ties. Unconventional gas developments are enhancing U.S. engagement in European energy markets. Finally, the U.S. remains keen to engage its European partners on a broad agenda of global and regional issues and retains its own interests in working particularly with Central and Eastern European countries to lend stability to ‘wider Europe’.     

核武器与冷战时期美国对苏联的政策

冷战时期,作为维护国家安全的重要工具,核武器在美国对苏联的政策中发挥了重要作用。美国政府不仅在战后初期坚持核保密政策,而且还多次利用核武器对苏联施加压力,以迫使其在政治上和外交上做出让步,并制定了一系列针对苏联的核作战计划。与此同时,为了保持对苏联的核优势地位,对苏联构成有效的威慑,美国政府不断加强核力量的建设,使得美苏之间的核军备竞赛愈演愈烈,并使双方走到了核战争的边缘,从而使得美苏决策者都认识到,限制核军备竞赛对双方至关重要,美苏关系也由此进入了相对缓和的时期。及至20世纪70年代,限制战略武器谈判成为美国对苏政策的重要内容。     

Modernization from above versus reform from below: U.S. policy toward Latin American agricultural development

This article distinguishes two tendencies in United States policy towards Latin American agriculture: a redistributionist tendency, favouring the break‐up of large private estates into small peasant plots; and a productionist tendency, favouring technical efficiency on existing holdings as the key to successful development. It is shown that this latter tendency has come increasingly to prevail in U.S. Government circles over the past decade, a shift in policy which is assumed to reflect political as well as strictly economic considerations. The endorsement of land reform, at least on the level of declared policy, in the early years of the Kennedy administration, has been followed by a reappraisal which brings U.S. policy more in line with the preferences of the large landowners who are among the most reliable political allies of the United States. (Ed.)     

Designing a secure Iraq: a US policy prescription

The third Western attempt at regime construction in Iraq is now underway. Western plans to rebuild the Iraqi state will fail again if they ignore the real roots of Iraqi insecurity: its geopolitical weakness. The preoccupation with designing a new constitution ignores the historical evidence of the 1930s and 1950s that it is bound to fail. Surrounded by far larger powers such as Turkey and Iran, Iraq desperately needs long‐term commitments of arms and allies. While de‐garrisoning is a vital part of the regional peace puzzle, an insecure Iraq destabilises politics in Baghdad and fuels arms competitions. Thus the USA and UK must intercede on Iraq's behalf and help to resolve the long‐standing disputes over the unfair division of the Shatt al‐Arab with Iran, and access to sea arrangements with Kuwait. If Iraq is permitted to drift away a decade after reconstruction, its regime will again fall.     

The rise and fall of the Third Site of Ballistic Missile Defense

The present article examines the tumultuous development in the issue of the Third Site (also known as the Third Pillar) of the US Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) that was planned to be hosted by the Czech Republic and Poland. The article analyzes the entire ‘life cycle’ of the project, from its formal proposal in 2007 by the former U.S. President George W. Bush to its cancellation in 2009 by the current U.S. President Barak Obama. Without any doubts, the Third Site of BMD put Poland and the Czech Republic at the centre of international-security politics and as such allows one to see how the two post-communist countries acted and reacted to related international positions, expectations and challenges. A detailed analysis of this issue, nevertheless, does not exhaust aims of this article. Whether brief or detailed, any look at the coverage of the issue reveals that the Czech Republic and Poland have invariably been lumped together through the construction of the imagery of the New Europe as a homogeneous political bloc. It will be argued that such a view is flawed and needs refinement. In order to back the claim, the issue of the Third Site is put into a historical context, revealing that the differences between the Czech and Polish international-security preferences and expectations after the end of the Cold War have been quite stable – including the most recent development after the project has been shelved by the United States, and can thus be conceived of in dialectical terms.     

中东欧地区大国博弈新态势--兼论中国-中东欧国家合作面临的挑战与机遇

在地缘安全、能源、价值观等方面,美国、以德国为主要代表的欧盟国家以及俄罗斯在中东欧地区有着广泛而重要的利益。三者的互动关系呈现美俄博弈主导中东欧安全形势,美德(欧)联合制俄但共识有限,美德(欧)对中国在中东欧的经济介入保持警惕但难以形成合力三个特征。随着中美竞争的持续,美德(欧)与以波兰、匈牙利为代表的中东欧国家在价值观上的分歧扩大,美德(欧)对俄罗斯的地缘政治攻势升级,中东欧地区的大国力量格局发生了新的变化。美国对中国的战略围堵压力持续加大,以德国为代表的欧盟国家对中东欧国家的控制力不断降低,俄罗斯反“守”为“攻”回应西方威胁,而德国新政府和新一届欧盟委员会对华政策更加突出价值观因素,导致中国—中东欧国家合作面临的地缘政治压力总体上有增无减。但是,美欧内部也并非铁板一块,以德国为代表的欧盟国家在中东欧控制力的弱化以及美欧与波兰、匈牙利等国关系的恶化,也为持续推进中国—中东欧国家合作带来了潜在机遇。以上因素作为影响中东欧国家对华政策的重要变量,需要密切关注。