Conflict management and constructive engagement in ASEAN's expansion

This article examines the expansion of membership in ASEAN which has occurred during the second half of the 1990s, and identifies the factors behind this process, with particular attention devoted to the efforts aimed at implementing the conflict management mechanisms of ASEAN on a wider regional level. The study takes as its starting point the rapprochement between the original member states of ASEAN and Vietnam and Laos, which began during the second half of the 1980s and gained momentum following the resolution of the Cambodian conflict in 1991. The first half of the 1990s was characterised by the gradual acceptance by other Southeast Asian countries of ASEAN's code of conduct for inter-state interaction. This paved the way for the accession to full membership in ASEAN of Vietnam in 1995, of Laos and Burma in 1997 and of Cambodia in late 1998. Given the considerable discrepancy in the level of economic development between the new and old members of ASEAN, the economic motivation for expanding ASEAN would be to facilitate foreign investment in the new members and open new markets for exports within an expanded ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). The article argues, however, that the political and security considerations are more important in explaining why the original members embarked on the process aimed at bringing all 10 Southeast Asian countries into ASEAN. It is in this context that the policy of constructive engagement and peaceful management of inter-state conflicts comes into play.     

Do Economic Linkages through FDI Lead to Institutional Change? Assessing Outcomes in Kazakhstan,Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can deliver benefits beyond the provision of capital, such as efficiency gains. We argue that the theorised positive effects of economic linkage are reduced when linkages are based on natural resources. Domestic elite coalitions supporting reform are also weaker in countries with extensive natural resources. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have high-value natural resources and significant FDI, making them most likely cases for reform. Kyrgyzstan is a contrasting case as it has few natural resources. We find that the institutional reforms we would anticipate because of linkages have not occurred and those that exist are often cosmetic.     

CONVERGING UNDER PRESSURE? COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES

This article analyses counterterrorism policy convergence among the 27 European Union (EU) member states between 2000 and 2006. While considerable academic interest has been devoted to the common European Union policy in response to terrorism after September 11, few studies have compared counterterrorism policy-making at the member state level. This gap raises the question whether the institutional framework of European counterterrorism policy-making has stimulated convergence of national policies. Data on five policy instruments for counterterrorism show that the aggregated implementation rate increased by almost 55 per cent in this period, which indicates a trend towards policy divergence within the EU as a whole. However, the findings also reveal significant variation in the level and pace of policy instrument implementation. One potentially important variable explaining national policy developments is the degree of political pressure from the EU on member states, while EU membership accession and national counterterrorism policy legacies were less important factors.     

Neither here, not there: Bulgaria and Romania in current European politics

The article analyses the process of EU enlargement with reference to the progress that Bulgaria and Romania have made within it. It is argued that leaving them out of the wave of accession finalised in May 2004 for ten of the candidate states, has placed them in a situation of double exclusion. Firstly, their geographical belonging to the region of Southeast Europe has been rendered non-essential by their advanced position within the EU enlargement process. Secondly, their achievement in economic and political transition has been removed from the progress of the ten states, which joined the EU in May 2004 by delaying the time of their accession. As a result, any efforts in regional cooperation and integration between Bulgaria and Romania on one hand, and other Southeast European states on the other, have been effectively cancelled. Moreover, in current European politics, the two countries have come to serve the unenviable role of exemplifying on the part of the European Union how progress is being awarded and hesitation punished.     

入世后中国经济外交的战略转型与政策调整

入世后中国的经济外交步入新的阶段,开始寻求在现行国际经济体系的框架下影响国际经济规则。中国在推动多边经济谈判进程、推行自由贸易区战略、应对国际经济摩擦、能源外交及"走出去"战略等方面大力践行经济外交。全球金融危机对中国外交政策环境带来重大变化,中国经济外交面临进一步提升的机遇,同时也必须经历战略性的调整和转型。在后金融危机时代,中国的经济外交需要兼顾海外直接投资与金融资产的全球配置,从原先侧重于贸易、投资等局部性、领域性问题向体系层面的建构和协调发展,立足东亚贸易自由化以及金融协同化进程,推动多边贸易体系、国际金融体系朝向更为公平、稳定、平衡的方向发展。     

State Power and the Economic Origins of Democracy

Recent comparative politics scholarship on regime change has not taken state capacity seriously. Prominent works on the relationship between democracy and economic inequality center on the expectation by economic elites that democratization will lead to economic redistribution. But state capacity is necessary for redistribution, and where extractive capacity is lacking, rational economic elites should not fear that suffrage expansion would lead to effective redistribution, nor should the masses expect to gain economically from democratization. State capacity thus acts as a scope condition for the effect of inequality on regime outcomes. This prediction is confirmed through replication and extension of the analysis in Boix (2003), with the addition of the presence of a regularly implemented national census as a proxy for state capacity. In strong states, the effect of inequality on regime change is confirmed. But where the state is weak, inequality is shown to have no effect on regime outcomes. Thus, including state capacity in theories of regime change calls into question general claims about the “economic origins” of dictatorship and democracy.     

Monetary regimes,economic stability,and EU accession: Comparing Bulgaria and Romania

This paper traces the origins of the different monetary regimes adopted in Bulgaria and Romania in 1996–97 and examines their performance during the EU accession. The findings indicate that the constraints of the currency board in Bulgaria shifted economic activity towards the private sector, while the discretionary policies in Romania turned public finances into both a contributor and a response mechanism to economic imbalances. While the prospects of EU accession initially enhanced the performance of the monetary anchors, the implicit insurance of EU membership increased moral hazard and led to a rapid rise in private and public debt. The paper also explores the historical parallels between the monetary regimes of Bulgaria and Romania in 1996–97 and 1925–1940.     

Economic development strategies in the American states

Economic development has always been a moving target. Not surprisingly, there is growing evidence that the shape of economic policy and practice is significantly changing in many American states on the eve of the 21st Century. This article reviews the evolution and transformation of state economic development as well as its multidimentional character. The evolution includes roughly three broad, overlapping phases: a period when states focused on attracting businesses, a period when they focused on developing existing businesses, and a period when states refined and sharpened the strategies they already had in place. This article also offers evidence that a new, fourth phase is emerging in economic development. It is called cluster-based economic analysis and strategy development. This new approach has states addressing new issues, using new analytical tools, and experiencing new kinds of results.     

Civilization and international society: the case of European Union expansion

Joining a society of some kind requires the fulfillment of certain standards. In international society, states acknowledge the need for certain collective standards of international conduct if international order is to be maintained. The first truly global application of international norms took place during the nineteenth century through the process of the expansion of the European society of states and its gradual transformation to the contemporary global international society. In this process, the standard of ‘civilization’ played an essential role in determining which states would join the expanding European society and which ones would not. Despite the major changes that have occurred, the standard of ‘civilization’ has remained an international practice as well as a benchmark against which the attitudes and policies of states are assessed. Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than in the EU policy of ‘membership conditionality’. Although many explanations for EU expansion have been put forward rather absent from debate has been the civilization dimension which is embedded in membership conditionality and which should be given more emphasis.     

Economic transformations in Cuba: a review

After Raul Castro’s accession to the presidency of Cuba, the country has witnessed the most far-reaching process of economic reforms for more than five decades. The government has expanded the private and cooperative sectors, has passed a new foreign investment law, restructured most of its old debt and has sought to end the long-standing dispute with the USA. Yet economic performance has been poor and the country faces significant challenges and contradictions arising from the reforms. This paper analyses the macroeconomic environment and the changes introduced by the Cuban government over the period 2007–15. While successful at restoring macroeconomic equilibria, restrictive macroeconomic policies have hurt economic growth, whereas growth- and efficiency-enhancing measures are yet to produce results. Moreover, transformation of the economic model is slow because of its many internal contradictions. The paper also discusses some of the main impediments to future change.     

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan as Post-Soviet Rentier States: Resource Incomes and Autocracy as a Double ‘Curse’in Post-Soviet Regimes

This article presents an analysis of two post-Soviet states, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which can be identified as post-Soviet rentier states. Both countries are characterised economically by enormous national resources of gas and oil and low economic diversification as well as politically by strong autocratic presidentialism with neopatrimonial structures. These two factors, combined with further post-Soviet legacies such as a low level of political interest in the respective societies and a basically hierarchical orientation of the population, lead to a specific post-Soviet variety of rentierism. From a political science perspective, this article reveals the impact of resource policies on these comparably new political systems and concludes with a summary of core features of these post-Soviet rentier states.     

Hegemonic political parties in post-Soviet Eurasia: Towards party-based authoritarianism?

Hegemonic parties in authoritarian regimes can fulfill important purposes for those regimes and thereby contribute to their survival. Along with the consolidation of authoritarian regimes, hegemonic political parties have emerged in some post-Soviet states, raising questions about the role that these parties play in the survival of the regimes. This article asks which of the purposes that are frequently ascribed to ruling authoritarian parties are fulfilled by United Russia, the Yeni Azerbaijan Party, and Nur Otan of Kazakhstan, the hegemonic parties of the three strongest consolidated authoritarian regimes with a hegemonic party in the former Soviet Union. It is argued that despite the increasing prominence of the hegemonic parties, full-fledged party-based authoritarianism has not yet been established in Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan.     

The unbearable lightness of membership: Bulgaria and Romania after the 2007 EU accession

This paper focuses on the current political and socio-economic situation in the two most recent EU member states, Bulgaria and Romania. Overall, the post-accession period in both countries has been comparable to that in the East-Central European members that had joined the Union on 1 May 2004. However, there have been some significant differences in the post-accession path of Bulgaria and Romania, which set them apart from the rest of the EU-10, as well as among themselves. For instance, the problem of corruption has been a particularly salient theme for the political elites of both countries and it led to the paralysis of the cabinet in Romania during the first year of its membership and to the rise of powerful populist alternatives in Bulgaria. What has probably been even more distinguishing in the cases of Bulgaria and Romania is their apparent inability to swiftly deal with the political and social challenges emerging after accession, as well as to adequately respond to the process of Europeanization. The main reason for this has been the unfinished political and socio-economic transformation of both countries, accompanied by the consolidation of certain ‘reserve domains’, occupied by the former secret services and semi-mafia structures.     

Visegrad: Fit for purpose?

Visegrad inter-state cooperation among the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia has faced numerous near-death experiences since its official birth in 1991. Furthermore, it has faced two challenges since the four member-countries’ accession to the EU in 2004. Then Visegrad was eulogized, considered deceased by many precisely for having achieved the apparently ultimate aim of EU membership. Second, having purposefully stated rumours of its death, Visegrad has since 2008 been confronted by issues from outside and ones well beyond its size – the Obama presidency and its apparent abandonment of Central and Eastern Europe in its “reset” strategy towards Moscow; a post-Lisbon EU agenda; strategic reorientations in NATO; and both the general, that is, global, financial crisis and particularly within the EU and regarding the Euro.This article, by contrast, contends that the fundamental changes and challenges that Visegrad has faced enhanced the Group's clear and successful strategy. It identifies and elaborates that strategy, drawing also selectively and thematically on the Group's historical experience since 1991. These strategies include targeted rather than broad selection of aims; retaining an exclusive membership while also inventing variable and flexible mechanisms for adding non-member countries to help them pursue specific initiatives. Through a study of annual Group Presidency agendas and reports, high-level and ministerial meeting declarations and media and secondary source analysis and interviews with National Coordinators, the article contends that the Group continues to promote realistic aims, and provides a unique platform for exercising them. This study concludes that Visegrad, despite the outside challenges remains effective in raising awareness, advancing smaller-scale policies and influencing EU policy towards the Western Balkans and European Partnership (EaP) countries, as well as achieving specific Visegrad initiatives with those states.     

“Survival of the fittest:” Domestic and international dimensions of the authoritarian reaction in the former Soviet Union following the colored revolutions

This article examines the internal and external reactions by post-Soviet autocrats to the colored revolutions. First, the colored revolutions provoked incumbents in Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and other post-Soviet countries to strengthen domestic efforts to preempt opposition challenges. Preemptive measures included restrictions on independent civil society, disruptions of independent electoral monitoring, promotion of pro-government civil society groups, and assaults on opposition and democracy assistance. Such actions, together with already existing endowments, allowed these regimes to survive. Next, the colored revolutions stimulated increased coordination among non-democratic states to squash opposition. Measures included counter-monitoring of elections to offset Western claims of fraud, and increased efforts at military and economic cooperation such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Simultaneously, Russia sought to destabilize Georgia and Ukraine through economic and, in Georgia, military pressure. This authoritarian backlash following the colored revolutions buttressed the surviving autocracies, which prospects for democratization have become even more bleak and distant.     

Processes of democratization in the East Central European and Balkan states: sovereignty-related conflicts in the context of Europeanization

This paper discusses the Central and East European democratic transitions as parts of the global democratization process, including their both external and domestic aspects. The analysis covers six East Central European (ECE) and six Balkan states. It provides a systematic overview of these twelve states with a classification of their external and internal developments. The paper classifies these states according to the three stages of systemic change and according to their EU (association and accession) and NATO (PfP and membership) relationships. In the New World Order, the sovereignty-related conflicts appear in this systematic overview through the analysis of the bilateral and multilateral relations between and among these states as restructuring follows the requirements of the EU and NATO. These multinational organizations actually rearrange both regional structures and neighbourhood relationships. The ECE and Balkan states, based on the parallel criteria of external and internal developments, form four groupings: (1) new entrants—the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia; (2) late-comers to democratization—Slovakia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria; (3) “semi-protectorates” of great powers and international organizations (Bosnia and Macedonia); (4) unsettled countries or conflict-seeking states—Serbia and Albania.     

How EU Integration and Legacies Mattered for Foreign Direct Investment into Central and Eastern Europe

This essay uses the case of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central and Eastern Europe to stipulate how European Union (EU) integration affected the economic globalisation of the post-socialist region. Existing studies argue that expectations of impending EU membership had a direct effect on raising FDI inflows because they reduced perceived investment risks for potential investors. In contrast, I show that the EU accession process worked through an indirect effect on FDI: it influenced post-socialist states' efforts to promote FDI as a desirable strategy of economic development and the behaviour of firms. These state efforts, in turn, increased FDI inflows, net of conventional risk and return factors. Further analyses indicate that decisions about state FDI-promotion have been influenced not only by EU conditionality but also, and importantly, by particular legacies, namely the countries' initial choice of privatisation strategies, extent of reform during socialism and history of state sovereignty. Overall, the results suggest that EU integration and legacies of the past shape both the structural and the ideational context for domestic decision-making elites in Central and Eastern Europe, and may act not only as constraints but also as enabling conditions facilitating the global economic integration of the region.     

Turkey's foreign policy options: Europe,the USA or Central Asia?

Accession to the European Union (EU) constitutes one of Turkey's primary foreign policy objectives. However, to establish whether the country would benefit from becoming part of an integrated Europe, its foreign policy alternatives to EU membership must also be examined. The first part of this article analyses Turkey's changing relations with Europe. Against this backdrop, the article then moves to assess Turkey's partnership with the USA and the potential of maintaining a close relationship independent from Europe. The role of Russia, Turkey's old neighbours and relations with the Turkic states, as well as the potential for attaining a leading role among them, are also considered. The argument is that Turkey may exploit its geostrategic position to pursue its core foreign policy interests and even assume an important regional role. However, Ankara ought to concentrate on what has long been its priority – full Turkish membership of the EU.     

Examining the EU-China Relationship in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis

ABSTRACT

This article examines how, if at all, the changed economic order in the aftermath of the economic crisis in 2008 has shaped the relationship between the EU and China. Theoretically, two prevalent opposing narratives in the public discourse are presented and linked to two crude versions of mercantilism and economic liberalism in the scholarly literature. The mercantilist line of reasoning posits that China will gain more political weight with its increasing economic strength. The economic liberal line of reasoning suggests that China’s economic weight does not translate into political power. These two opposing theoretical claims are examined by process tracing two most likely cases. This article concludes that despite its increased economic strength, China has enjoyed limited success in persuading the EU and its member states to change their position(s) on policy areas involving strategic interests.     

From ‘Unilateral’ to ‘Dialogical’: Determinants of EU–Azerbaijan Negotiations

Abstract

The European Union (EU) and Azerbaijan have negotiated three different agreements for a new legal basis underpinning their relationship since 2010. Whereas the EU tries to adhere to a more unilateral approach, Azerbaijan wants cooperation to take place on a more inclusive, dialogical, basis. The essay will present a model of ‘bargaining power’ to analyse how the Azerbaijani government has tried to enforce this, and to what degree it has been successful. It finds that the bargaining power model can explain some of the changing power dynamics in EU–Azerbaijan relations, and that these might speak to the broader Eurasian region too.