节能减排压力下的钢铁消费需求研究——基于SVR模型的预测

2008年以来大规模的投资刺激过后,钢铁产业能否找到新的增长点?过剩产能如何消化?国际社会要求中国减少碳排放的压力如何应对?造成这些问题的一个基本原因就是我们没有对钢铁的消费需求做出较为精准的预测,预测方法和手段的缺失是导致钢铁生产的供需不平衡的原因之一。本文建立支持向量回归机来研究中国钢铁消费需求预测模型。研究结果表明:(1)支持向量回归机在解决小样本、非线性问题中具有预测精度高、解释性强等特点,其预测精度要高于BP神经网络和GM模型。(2)预计"十二五"期间我国钢铁需求将以9.56%的速度增长,2015年我国钢铁需求将达到10亿多吨。     

基于PLS的道路交通事故预测模型的构建

预测引起道路交通事故的相关因素、确定主要因素,是有效降低道路交通事故中死亡人数的关键环节。借助偏最小二乘回归方法(PLS)实现道路交通事故死亡人数预测模型的构建,对道路交通死亡人数与事故起数、GDP、机动车保有量、公路通车里程、人口数四项影响因素进行相关性分析,确定最相关的影响因素及其相关性,并对下一年度的数据进行预测。该模型的相对误差为0.52%~10.91%。     

全国机动车电子围栏项目建设分析与研究

截至2015年底,我国机动车保有量达2.67亿辆,约占全球汽车保有量的11%,迅速增加的机动车出行需求与道路交通系统负荷之间矛盾的日益突出。文章全面分析了建设全国机动车电子围栏项目的意义、目标、要求和任务,希望通过该项目的系统建设与优化设计,能够全面提高各级公安交通管理部门机动车管理的科技应用水平和工作效能。     

人、车、路如何和谐振共处？——“中国式过马路”严管进行时

截至2012年底，中国汽车驾驶人首次突破2亿人。机动车保有量达2．4亿辆，18个大中城市汽车保有量超过百万，中国加速治理机动车、行人、非机动车交通违法行为显得尤为迫切。     

“停车难”愈演愈烈 建议用足地下资源

随着经济社会发展,机动车消费量持续增长。据交通管理部门统计,至2011年9月,杭州市机动车增量已连续23个月突破万辆大关,主城区的机动车保有量已达78.9万辆,整个杭州的汽车保有量更是高达202万辆。与之不相适应的是,主城区停车泊位却不     

关于杭州市调整优化差别化停车收费的政策问答(一)

<正>一、为什么要调整优化差别化停车收费政策?答:随着经济社会发展,近年来我市机动车保有量呈持续快速增长态势,市区特别是中心城区交通拥堵状况日趋严重,停车难问题日益突出,现行停车收费政策难以适应当前社会发展的实际,需进一步调整和优化。一是机动车保有量增长迅猛。2008年杭州市区的机动车保有量为465万辆,截至2014年6月已达120万辆,增长1581%。二是停车泊位严重不足。据统计,目前杭州市     

我国信心指数对宏观经济反应与预测的能力分析

信心指数是反映宏观经济现状和未来趋势的先行指标。在分析信心与GDP关系的基础上,通过对我国2004年第一季度到2012年第三季度的消费者、企业家、经济学家信心指数和同期宏观经济数据,运用建立向量自回归模型、误差修正模型(VECM),向量自回归模型中的脉冲响应和预测方差分解,以及Granger因果检验,分析了三类信心指标对GDP指数的反应与预测能力,比较分析信心指数的先导作用,提出增强市场群体信心的建设性意见。     

控制机动车污染物排放势在必行

一、控制机动车污染排放势在必行 随着我国现代化建设和城市间高速公路的开通，方便快捷的汽车和摩托车的使用量也随之迅速增加，其社会保有量平均年增 14％。目前，全国汽车保有量为 1700万辆，摩托车保有量为 6200万辆。机动车有害废气排放 (主要指一氧化碳、碳氢化合物、悬浮颗粒物、氮氧化物等 )大幅度增加，成为城市大气环境质量恶化的主要污染源，成为中国和世界性环保问题的关注热点。经历近 30年的研究和实践证明，能大幅度净化机动车排气污染物的唯一高效实用的技术产品是催化转化器。正由于催化转化器产品的成功应用，世界各国才…     

城市居民低碳出行行为决策影响因素模型研究

正随着我国经济的快速发展和人们生活水平的不断提高,我国城市汽车保有量持续增长。截至2017年底,全国机动车保有量达3.1亿辆,其中汽车2.17亿辆。随着机动车保有量的急剧增长,汽车尾气成为城市空气污染的重要污染源。《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划的建议》中提出"绿色"发展理念,坚持绿色发展,着力改善生态环境。《建议》指出:坚持绿色富国、绿色惠民,推动形成绿色发展方式和生活方式,是保持社会经济可持续发展,实现人民     

修订条例 明确标准——省人大代表白效明谈机动车尾气污染防治

随着我省社会经济迅速发展,人民生活水平的提高,机动车保有量增长很快。每年,我省约以20万辆的速度递增,2005年,全省机动车保有量已达210万辆,这个数字是2000年的两倍。由此而来的是,机动车排放污染物已占我省城市大气污染负荷的40%以上,城市的大气污染由原来的煤烟型污染逐渐向煤烟和汽车排气复合型污染转化,成为影响我省环境空气质量的重要因素。     

Sustained Development Leads to Higher Living Standards简

正CHINA’s economy has significantly advanced over the past 35 years of reform and openingup.Chinese people’s incomes have risen and their living standards have improved,from barely having enough to eat and adequate clothing to today’s generally better-off lifestyle.     

A Taste of Chengdu简

正BENEFITING from the Dujiangyan Irrigation System that was constructed in 256BC,Sichuan Province is reputed as"Tian Fu Zhi Guo,"a place richly endowed with natural resources.Chengdu,the capital,is extremely productive,providing its people with cozy and relaxing lives.Chengdu people are known for their love of life.They know just how to relax and have fun.And they     

The Chinese Dream and the World

正FOR over 2,000 years in its history,China maintained great power.But its influence didn’t stem from territorial expansion or the occupation of foreign countries.China is rather an introversive country,focusing on developing its culture rather than its military might.Chinese civilization has never displayed force or made bellicose policies;instead it emphasizes"harmony is of the utmost value."China hopes to share its dream with the rest of the world,as it is the time-honored consensus among its1.3 billion people that"the interests to be considered     

Silk Road Economic Belt --A Welcome Proposal

正THE proposal to build a Silk Road economic belt has received proactive responses from Central Asian countries and regions along the route.The city of Samarkand in Uzbekistan,for example,has increasingly closer ties with China,according to Deputy Mayor Jamshed Urakov.Besides trade in numerous products made in China,many local people are learning Chinese to     

History of the Silk Road

正A gold Byzantine coin of the Anastasius I era(491-518)was unearthed last October from a Northern Wei Dynasty(386-534)tomb in Luoyang,Henan Province.The find caused no particular stir in China’s numismatic circles,however.Over recent decades Persian and Roman gold coins have occasionally come to light in historical sites along the ancient Silk Road.     

Paying Homage to War Criminals Warrants Condemnation

正On December 26,2013,Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine,where 14Class-A World War II war criminals,including Hideki Tojo,who was prime minister of Japan for most of the war,are enshrined.These statesmen and military offi cers were responsible for maintaining a 14-year-long period of aggression towards China,for the Nanjing Massacre,for the sexual abuse of socalled"comfort women"in East and Southeast Asia,and for the attack on Pearl Harbor that provoked the Pacif ic War.Convicted of war crimes in 1946 at the International     

China＇s Antarctic Exploration：1984-2014

正THE launch in 1984 of the Xiangyanghong No.10 marked China’s first Antarctic survey tour.As the ship was not able to break ice,it was a tough start to the country’s Antarctic explorations.But after 30 years of effort,Chinese scientists have successfully sailed from Shanghai to the Southern Hemisphere and beyond to the earth’s southernmost continent.China has since witnessed great achievements in its scientif ic expeditions to the     

A Cultural Journey Through European Civilization in Beijing

正LI Sisi,a sophomore of the Central Academy of Fine Arts,cannot take her eyes off a bust of the Goddess Isis.She marvels at the perfection of the statue dated to 150-250,taking photos of it from different angles.On the other side of the exhibition hall at the National Museum of China(NMC)in central Beijing,a middle-aged couple is looking for the route of the Crusades on a map of the ancient Mediterranean.Such scenes replay every day at the"Mediterranean World from the Collections of the Musée du     

The Ascent Of Haba Snow Mountain

正IN 1995,a group of Chinese mountaineers reached the summit of Haba Snow Mountain,5,396 meters above sea level,making it the highest snow peak in Yunnan Province to be conquered by humans.The mountain,in the eyes of professional mountaineers,is"entry level."However,to amateurs,it is a game for the brave.At 10 a.m.on October 5,2013,I,along with 17teammates and a group coordinator,reached the top of Haba.Standing next to the altitude mark,I texted"I made it!"to my family.The message was simple but we all knew it was hard earned.     

Day Breaks in China’s Logistics Industry简

正MENTION logistics,and p e r h a p s a b u s y p o r t comes to mind.We may then recall how Rotterdam was unarguably once the world’s busiest port,for 40 years.Yet,in just a few years this logistical crown was usurped by Singapore,among the most thriving of countries in Asia.Soon,Chinese cities such as Shanghai,Ningbo,Shenzhen,Qingdao,Guangzhou and Tianjin also began to contend.