阿根廷陷入经济和社会危机

自 1 998年下半年起 ,阿根廷处于经济持续衰退之中。 2 0 0 1年第 4季度陷入经济危机 ,随即爆发社会危机和政府危机。现行经济发展战略、模式和相关政策陷入危机。围绕经济发展战略、模式和相关政策的斗争进一步激化。公共经济紧急法标志着经济政策的重大转变 ,对经济发展战略、模式的调整产生重大影响。这场斗争关系到如何分摊经济和社会危机的沉重代价 ,如何重新分配经济利益和政治权力 ,因而十分激烈和复杂。通过政治和社会协商达成共识 ,实行政治合作 ,成为阿根廷走出危机的关键因素。     

阿根廷政党治理危机及其原因探析

1983年结束独裁统治后的阿根廷重新走上了民主政治的道路,政党再度成为阿根廷政治生活的主体。但民主宪政的回归并没有相应地促成政党政治的制度化,先后上台执政的激进党和正义党均不同程度地陷入治理危机的泥潭。究其根源,一个重要的原因是阿根廷两大传统政党内部的治理缺陷(如政党的运动主义倾向、独立性差、缺乏党内共识、支持基础薄弱、联邦制度带来的不利影响,等等)。内部治理的失败使阿根廷政党没有真正发挥政府和社会之间的媒介作用,丧失了政党的基本职能——表达民众的利益,其结果迫使民众常常诉诸于体制外的社会动员或街头抗议等形式来表达自身的利益要求,造成社会政治动荡频发。     

二战后阿根廷经济独立道路与美国的对策

二战结束后,阿根廷总统庇隆在本国现代化进程中坚持"经济独立"的思想,力图摆脱阿根廷对初级产品出口贸易的依赖和大国的控制。然而,随着美苏之间"冷战"的爆发,美国出于自身的战略利益,采用各种手段控制阿根廷着力发展工业的"一五计划",遏制阿根廷民族主义经济的发展。历史经验表明,任何国家都不可能在封闭环境下探索本国现代化道路。外部环境是不发达国家追求现代化进程中不可忽视的重要因素。     

二战后阿根廷的现代化战略选择与对外关系

同其他拉美国家一样,在建设现代化国家的道路上,阿根廷经历了曲折而艰辛的过程。其现代化战略的选择在不同时期因为国际大环境和本国各方面因素的影响,呈现出不同的倾向和特点。现代化战略的选择和确定,也从根本上决定了阿根廷的对外关系走向。二战后阿根廷的现代化战略发展经历了进口替代工业化、新自由主义改革和新世纪的调整与探索等几个大的阶段。其外交政策和对外关系也在不同阶段表现为"第三立场"、"外围现实主义"和立足于拉丁美洲的多边外交战略,与其现代化道路的发展相辅相成。     

"断裂状"社会的形成及其影响--对阿根廷1930～1955年间的政治分析

主要观点 1929年世界经济危机和第二次世界大战是阿根廷经济、政治发展的分水岭.本文把1930～1955年视为阿根廷发展进程中的关键时期.融入世界市场体系的特殊方式及1930～1955年的政治选择使阿根廷形成了一个对立的"断裂状"社会.     

阿根廷和智利经济发展的经验教训及其启示

2001年12月23日,阿根廷以宣布"倒账",迎来了圣诞前夜,它从另一个角度表明,公共债务过高是阿根廷陷入经济危机的重要原因。与阿根廷不同,智利在经济上的完全市场化和在政治上的高度集权化,不仅为智利经济的持续稳定发展提供了机制支持,而且为智利经济持续稳定发展提供了制度保障。智利为我国提供了如下经验:一是财政预算的高度集权制;二是执行严格的财经纪律;三是预算实行统一管理;四是强化税收征管及其体系建设;五是实行严格的债务管理;六是建立反周期的财政可持续机制。而阿根廷的教训为我国提供了如下警示:公共债务过高是21世纪初阿根廷经济陷入债务危机的根本原因,而金融监管松弛下发生的货币错配和债期错配等现象则是阿根廷经济全面陷入危机的主要起因。     

城市新贫困:近20年来全球性、区域性以及阿根廷的动因

本文分析了20世纪80年代和90年代"新贫困"的不同范围.先介绍欧洲、美国和拉美几个国家对新贫困的不同定义,而后把重点放在阿根廷,介绍20世纪70年代中期至2001年危机期间,中产阶级在不同时期所遭受的贫困化过程.     

阿根廷新自由主义改革失败的启示

20 0 1年年底 ,阿根廷再次爆发经济危机。这场危机暴露出阿根廷实行新自由主义改革的许多弊端。本文以阿根廷新自由主义改革历程的回顾为出发点 ,从危机的角度分析了改革的种种不足。由于阿根廷存在的一些问题与其他发展中国家在改革中碰到的许多问题较相似 ,因此 ,笔者试图通过总结阿根廷的教训 ,得出几点有益的启示。     

阿根廷的"2005年债务互换计划"

2001年年底阿根廷危机某种程度上是巨额外债而引发的经济危机.因此,阿根廷债务重组计划备受全球的关注,尤其是针对国际债权人的重组计划.2003年阿根廷首次提出"迪拜提案",但由于国际债权人的强烈反对而夭折.2004年阿根廷政府再次提出了"布宜诺斯艾利斯提案",这充分说明了阿根廷政府的诚意和努力.在债务互换计划的条款、债务减免幅度、财政状况和清偿能力等方面,阿根廷做出了更大的让步,这是"2005年债务互换计划"成功实施的关键因素.     

阿根廷危机的由来及其教训--兼论20世纪阿根廷经济的兴衰

阿根廷的自然条件和其他条件很适合于经济的发展。 1 9世纪末 ,其经济增长速度之快在世界上是无与伦比的。但在 2 0 0 2年新年伊始 ,它不仅遇到了债务危机 ,而且还陷入了政治危机和社会危机。     

Popular understanding of democracy in contemporary China

By taking the official state ideology into consideration, this article seeks to contribute to the study of public opinion of democracy under non-democratic regimes by analysing both qualitative and quantitative evidence collected in China. An examination of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s discourse on democracy reveals that the CCP endorses popular sovereignty and political participation while denying political contestation. Meanwhile, the concept of democracy can have three distinctive meanings among ordinary Chinese: democracy as freedom, democracy as political participation to ensure government accountability, and democracy as good socio-economic performance. Survey data show that the majority of informed Chinese respondents treat democracy as political participation to ensure government accountability, which indicates that Chinese understanding of democracy has reached to a certain degree of consensus that is closer to universally-shared idea of democracy rather than being culturally distinctive.     

Mauritania: Political Parties,Neo-patrimonialism and Democracy

This article takes issue with those analyses of ‘developmental democracy’ which treat popular participation as a clamorous inconvenience to be managed in the interests of economic efficiency. Instead it asks what follows from prioritizing participation both as a defining feature of democracy, and as an integral part of what is meant by development.

The analysis is developed in two parts. The first contrasts the narratives of popular and of liberal democracy, showing how they come to different conclusions about participation and its role in development. But it also argues there are potential complementarities. These were obscured when socialist ‘people's democracies’ were (misleadingly) seen as popular alternatives to liberal democracy. Since the end of the cold war, however, the focus has been on democratizing liberal democracy, to ensure it is responsive to the needs of citizens, as active participants in development and not just targets of state policy, rather than on whole system alternatives.

The second part reviews the experience of popular democratic experiments in Tanzania and Nicaragua, which sought to extend participation beyond the confines of representative democracy, and to link it to participatory development. It might be read as a requiem for their apparent failure. But their vicissitudes also raise broader questions: about the contradictions between popular participation and ‘people's democracy'as a system of rule; concerning the structures and procedures (elections, political parties, civil society bodies, mass organizations and so on) through which participation is organised; and about the problems of harmonizing participatory development with the management of complex national economies.     

Local democracy and popular participation: Chile and Brazil in comparative perspective

This article examines the factors that facilitate or impede the strengthening of popular participation in local democracy in Latin America through a comparative analysis of the Chilean and Brazilian cases. This comparative analysis illustrates the importance of structural reforms, the institutional configuration of local government and the role of political parties vis-à-vis civil society in either enhancing or impeding popular participation in local democracy. In short, it argues that popular participation will be strong and effective where structural reforms expand the resource base and policymaking authority of local leaders, local institutions strengthen accountability and facilitate citizen input in decision-making, and political parties attempt to organize and mobilize groups and constituents at the grass-roots. Where these conditions do not hold, the reverse will be true. These conclusions are drawn from analysis of the development of popular participation and local democracy in Porto Alegre, Brazil (a positive example) and Santiago, Chile (a negative example).     

委内瑞拉公民社会新发展:从社区自治会到公社

委内瑞拉总统查韦斯在执政期间积极推动建立参与式民主,并探索发展人民参与的有效途径。在这一过程中,社区自治会和公社相继建立,成为委内瑞拉参与式民主的主要载体。作为地方自治机构,社区自治会和公社体现1999年宪法倡导的政治参与,意在体现"人民权力",表达"人民意愿"。这一机制为公民有效参与公共事务、进入公共领域开辟渠道,使他们对国家的发展方向享有较以往更大的发言权。社区自治会和公社对于委内瑞拉公民社会的成长发挥着重要的促进作用。它们的稳步发展将产生自下而上的推力,推动国家政治转型的实现,使委内瑞拉从国家集权控制转变为真正的公民治理。     

Populism and democratic crisis in semi-presidential countries

This article demonstrates how different political opportunity structures in semi-presidential countries either enable or inhibit the overreach of populist presidents. In Turkey, for example, political leverage has been used to hamstring the opposition and transform a democratic regime into an authoritarian one. In Bulgaria, democracy also faded under a populist prime minister. Ukraine’s democracy had a checkered history, with frequent changes of power culminating in presidential breakdown. The Czech Republic introduced popular elections for the president to strengthen legitimacy, but that exposed the regime to conflict between the president and the prime minister.     

Political culture in Turkey: Connections among attitudes toward democracy,the military and Islam

Against the background of Turkey's continuing but unconsolidated democratic transition, this article examines the nature and determinants of attitudes toward democracy held by ordinary Turkish citizens. Using data from the World Values Survey conducted in Turkey in 1997, it seeks to contribute to a growing body of literature concerned with the relationship between political culture and democratization. Although this relationship has not been fully explicated, the authors share the view of those scholars who believe that the existence of democratic attitudes and values among a country's population is no less important than are democratic institutions and procedures for advancing and eventually consolidating a democratic transition. Accordingly, the study seeks to shed light on the following interrelated questions: To what extent does the Turkish population hold attitudes supportive of democracy? What are the most important determinants of popular support for democracy? What factors account for any observed variance in relevant political attitudes? What is the relationship between attitudes toward the military and attitudes toward democracy and governance? What is the relationship between personal religious attachments and attitudes toward democracy and governance?     

Clientelism and the classification of dominant party systems

The view of clientelism as an abuse of state power casts doubt on the democratic credentials of highly clientelistic political systems. The question is particularly relevant for the classification of dominant party systems that heavily rely on clientelism to elicit popular support and retain a relatively open structure of participation. Knowing that clientelism is a widespread practice in modern democracies too, how do we evaluate the impact of clientelism on political competitiveness in order to sort out the position of these regimes along the lines of democracy and authoritarianism? This task requires identifying the conditions under which clientelism becomes an essentially authoritarian practice and qualifies these regimes as such. The article puts forward two propositions about the circumstances under which clientelism infringes basic democratic standards under a thin and a thick definition of democracy. Clientelism under one-party monopoly engenders authoritarianism when it thwarts and punishes the contesting voice of citizens by effectively blocking exit from its incentives and sanctions.     

Public support for democracy in hong kong

Hong Kong witnessed a large-scale public rally and extensive support for democracy in mid-2003. This article explains the support by means of variables extracted from cultural, instrumental and sociological approaches. Drawn from the cultural approach, ‘post-materialistic activism’ and low levels of ‘respect for authority’ are found to be most powerful in explaining mass support, among all explanatory variables. Since culture seldom changes overnight, popular support for democracy may be sustained in the short and medium term. The calculation of the economic consequences for democracy, a variable drawn from the instrumental approach, has no effect on mass support. Thus, any attempt to suppress popular demand for democracy by offering economic sweeteners alone may prove futile. The most important instrumental factor among the public is ‘their confidence in political parties’. Whether pan-democratic parties can elevate such confidence becomes pivotal to boosting and sustaining this support. The lack of relatively stronger support among the younger and more educated stratum of people in Hong Kong does not bode well for prospects of increased mass support in the future. Finally, the article offers a small footnote on the implications for the ‘Asian values’ debate.     

Assessing democracy from below: A framework and indonesian pilot study

The emerging crisis of both elitist and popular strategies of democratization calls for assessments of the problems and options in such a way that different arguments may be put to the test while facilitating debate on improved agendas. This article first discusses the development of a framework for such assessments in the context of the most populous of the ‘third wave democracies’, Indonesia. The best audit of institutional performance, that of Beetham, is developed further by adding the scope of the institutions and the will and capacity of the local actors to improve and use them. This is followed by a presentation of the salient results from a thus designed survey comprising 330 questions to about 800 experienced democracy workers in all 32 provinces. Indonesia's actually existing democracy is surprisingly liberal and accepted as ‘the only game in town’. It suffers, however, from defunct instruments to really facilitate political equality and popular control of public affairs. This is due to monopolization of most rights and institutions by the establishment and the political marginalization of the democratic agents of change. The problems, however, are not all ‘structurally inevitable’. The article concludes by specifying the potential for improvements.